TOP 5 PASSING MATCHUPS WEEK 10
To view all of our Week 10 Matchup content, please see the links below:
Top 5 Passing Matchups Week 10
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups Week 10
Top 5 Rushing Matchups Week 10
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups Week 10
Rushing Matchup Chart Week 10
Passing Matchup Chart Week 10
Green Bay vs Jacksonville
The Packers are enjoying the fruits of a return-to-MVP-form season from Aaron Rodgers. Operating with extreme precision and a knack for the big downfield throw, Rodgers has topped 280 yards and thrown 3+ touchdowns in 6 of 8 outings. Last week’s romp over the 49ers was a clear reminder of what he’s capable of in a pass-centric attack. Davante Adams continues to lead the show - he’s on a 16-game pace of 2,045 yards and 26 touchdowns - but Rodgers has several dynamic toys to play with. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Robert Tonyan Jr, and the running backs are more than capable of striking big situationally.
The Jaguars simply can’t stop anyone through the air; virtually every opponent thus far has posted an efficient day. Quarterbacks are putting up 8.5 yards per attempt and 285 per game in this matchup, and 5 of 8 have thrown multiple touchdowns. It comes as no surprise, with the entire unit uprooted and in the midst of a full rebuild. The Jaguars boast real talent at cornerback, with Sidney Jones and rookie C.J. Henderson flashing bursts of high-quality play. But they’re not consistently strong, and teammates Tre Herndon and Chris Claybrooks have been among the league’s weakest in coverage. That’s allowed opposing receivers to feast down the field, with 9 of them topping 75 yards on the day. There’s no shame in giving up a long ball here and there, especially to a Kenny Golladay or a Will Fuller, but it comes like clockwork for this unit. If there’s a strong point here, it’s against tight ends - they’ve shut down just about all comers thus far. But there’s little downfield support to keep dynamic wideouts in check. If the Packers come out of the gates aggressively, Rodgers and his men will find plenty of big-play opportunities.
LA Rams vs Seattle
The Rams are always capable of posting hefty raw numbers against weak pass defenses. For all his struggles with consistency, Jared Goff has topped 275 yards 4 times already. Coach Sean McVay’s offense is a high-paced one, snapping the league’s third-most plays per game, which keeps Goff throwing plenty whenever the game script calls for it. Goff is not without his warts: he still flails badly against a successful pass rush, and he’s still plagued by a tendency to throw the ball right into the defense’s hands. But in the right matchup, he can be counted on to rack up volume as he throws heavily to the underappreciated Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. Goff will have his misfires Sunday, but he’ll also have plenty of opportunities to tilt fantasy matchups.
The Seahawks have been as easy as anyone to attack (and beat) through the air here in 2020. They’ve already allowed 5 opposing passers to top 360 yards - with 4 of them easily clearing 400. They’re coming up on a particularly weak schedule of passing games, but can’t be trusted to slow any of them - including the struggling Rams. Cornerbacks Tre Flowers and Quinton Dunbar have struggled mightily in man matchups, and not even star safety Jamal Adams moved the needle Sunday in his return. Josh Allen repeatedly exploited this undermanned secondary, taking advantage of a cornerback group with no one to check Stefon Diggs’ route-running. It doesn’t help that the pass rush can’t create pressure without blitzing, which pulls bodies out of coverage and leaves wide lanes to attack. Goff has always struggled against the blitz, but this remains an extremely beatable unit on all levels. With their quickness and route-running savvy, Woods and Kupp should have little trouble finding gaps in the Seahawks’ soft zones.
Cleveland vs Houston
The Browns try not to ask too much of the beleaguered Baker Mayfield. Coach Kevin Stefanski uses a run-centric attack to control the ball and keep the game slow and manageable for Mayfield. His limitations are clear - Mayfield isn’t a very dynamic athlete nor arm talent - but he’s had his share of success as a play-action attacker. Just two games ago he sliced through the Browns for 21 straight completions and 5 touchdowns in a rallying win. The Browns do lack for explosive options with Odell Beckham out, but they’re stocked with short-ball playmakers, like Jarvis Landry and a trio of mismatch-making tight ends. This isn’t the sexiest unit, but it’s at least capable of maximizing its potential in a strong matchup.
The Texans pass defense certainly qualifies as one. They haven’t given up a ton in terms of raw numbers, but opponents have had little trouble posting big efficiency. Just last week, Jaguars sixth-round rookie Jake Luton won downfield repeatedly, turning 38 attempts into 304 yards and a dazzling 73-yard touchdown to D.J. Chark. On the play, Chark blew past the overmatched Vernon Hargreaves and a lack of safety support, two recurring themes for the porous Texans. Opposing wideouts have little trouble working through soft coverage and a lack of coverage discipline to make splash plays downfield. Hargreaves remains one of football’s weakest cover men, both inside and out, and he gets little help from the likes of Phillip Gaines and Lonnie Johnson. They wouldn’t be so negatively impactful if the J.J. Watt-led pass rush was hitting home and forcing shaky throws, but that hasn’t been the case. Watt remains dominant, but has little help up front - only four teams are pressuring the pass at a lower rate. If Mayfield is both able to fool the Houston secondary on play-action and stay upright to throw, he’ll likely find enough gaps to exploit for one of his best 2020 stat lines.
Indianapolis vs Tennessee
The Colts’ air attack has been stalled for much of 2020, handcuffed by injuries and the dwindling abilities of Philip Rivers. The 38-year-old has struggled to hit on much at all down the field, and there’s been almost no connection with top wideout T.Y. Hilton, who’s questionable to return to action on the short week. Still, Rivers remains capable of keeping pace in a shootout, using the short and intermediate routes to coax splash plays out of his array of targets. If a high-scoring game breaks out Thursday, he’ll have a good opportunity against one of the league’s shakier secondaries.
The Titans, sitting at 6-2 despite a bottom-tier pass defense, are at least trying to improve on the fly. They’ve cut loose the dead weight of cornerback Johnathan Joseph, who’d been attacked relentlessly all season, and added dynamic ex-Charger Desmond King. King showed a ton of promise in Los Angeles before falling out of favor this season; he’s a strong renovation project for the short-term future. But in the here and now, there remain several exploitable holes in play. Malcolm Butler is enduring his worst coverage season as a pro, struggling to find the ball and giving up a number of too-easy downfield catches. There’s no obvious replacement for Joseph on the other side of the field, and King himself was quickly burned Sunday for a 34-yard strike from the slot. Their jobs are made even harder by a pass rush that’s stocked with big names, but making very little impact. Jadeveon Clowney, sackless through seven games, is week-to-week at best with a meniscus injury, and the unit ranks 25th in pressure rate even with him in the lineup. The Colts aren’t exactly storming barns with their pass game, but they’re set up well to win one-on-one matchups all Thursday evening.
Denver at Las Vegas
The Broncos have been forced to press pause on young quarterback Drew Lock’s development - and on that of the passing game as a whole. Ravaged by injuries to most of their prominent receivers and tight ends, they’ve yet to see much of Lock’s connections with Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and some key others. That said, game flow keeps requiring Lock to throw with volume, and there’s been decent production of late. Last Sunday he threw 48 passes in the loss to Atlanta, compiling 313 yards and 2 touchdowns (narrowly missing a third). He now has a healthy Fant, Jerry Jeudy, and K.J. Hamler to play with, offering a fair amount of dynamism. Jeudy, in particular, comes fresh off a breakout performance of 125 yards over a 14-target day. It will be up to Lock to take advantage of the strong matchup and build on that.
The Raiders are still in full-on rebuild mode on defense, and they’ve made for a strong fantasy target for as long as the mind can recall. They’ve now allowed 325+ yards in three of their last four games, and four of their last five opponents have tossed multiple touchdowns. To be fair, they’ve faced a tough recent slate of quarterbacks, and there’s no shame in allowing Patrick Mahomes II to rack up numbers in catch-up mode. But there’s still no reason to assume this unit has improved on its horrendous last decade or so. They’ve been ravaged by injuries and ineffectiveness, forcing shaky veterans like Nevin Lawson and Jeff Heath into more snaps than they’d like to see. Lamarcus Joyner has been a bust in slot coverage - they’ve given up big recent games to slot men like Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, and Scotty Miller. Rookie cornerback Trayvon Mullen opened the season strong in coverage, but has tapered off of late; he remains a project. All told, if there’s been any improvement here, it’s been minuscule. Lock and his weaponry face, if nothing else, a markedly stronger outlook than usual this week.
