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The Top 10: Week 8

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 8
By Matt Waldman, October 26, 2020

The Top 10: Week 8
Photo: Imagn Images

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with an unsustainable process.

A good example is the recent James Conner-Benny Snell analysis. The pervading thought after last Monday night was that Snell outplayed James Conner. While Snell earned more playing time, played well, and out-produced Conner, the film didn't support the conclusion that Conner played poorly as much as his offensive line got off to a slow start and he suffered a minor ankle injury that concerned the team.

Snell may earn another opportunity to take the job from Conner as the season progresses but against the Broncos and Texans defenses, Conner did enough to keep his role as the feature back and the non-film narratives did not come to fruition. Based on the process of studying what makes a running back productive, Conner did nothing to lose his role to Snell.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy). Still, this work may help you make wiser decisions that will help your team in the long run.

As always, I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 7'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.

  1. Scott Miller's usage is the template for Antonio Brown in Tampa Bay.
  2. JaMycal Hasty is worth a fantasy roster spot as a potential short-term and long-term starter and so many in the NFL overlooked him due to "logo scouting."
  3. Boston Scott is absolutely worth a start against the Cowboys next week, but he won't be the only Eagles back of value and his ceiling is lower than touted. Even so, his matches up well against an undisciplined Dallas corps of linebackers.
  4. Le'Veon Bell's debut in Kansas City was good and you should expect a frustrating split as a Clyde Edwards-Helaire investor.
  5. DAndre Swift confirmed against Atlanta's run-and-hit defense that he's not a weekly fantasy starter and, based on my analysis last week, he's best saved for Weeks 10-13.
  6. Baker Mayfield was poised and accurate against a weak defense. He hasn't demonstrated that he has overcome the existing flaws that he exhibits against quality opponents.
  7. Kenny Golladay made several difficult catches against Atlanta and based on the past few weeks, continue expecting a rebound for his fantasy value.
  8. A.J. Green is earning work in the slot and it could salvage some fantasy value this year.
  9. JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a fantasy loser this year, but I show when he can be of use based on the Steelers' offensive game plan.
  10. This week's Fresh Fish:
    1. The Dallas Cowboys' descent into football madness is a team effort and a great matchup for fantasy on both sides of the ball.
    2. Houston's defense made life way too easy for Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams and remains a marquee matchup for opposing skill players on the ground and through the air.
    3. Todd Gurley's touchdown that he didn't want to score contributed to a last-second loss against the Lions.
    4. Cincinnati's awful coverage against the Browns extended the mass denial of false hope for Baker Mayfield's career as an NFL starter.
    5. Chiefs No.2 tight end Nick Keizer lost a fumble and nearly got Patrick Mahomes II killed in pass protection. If he continues to earn playing time, consider starting safeties and outside linebackers who earn blitz assignments.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. How Will Antonio Brown Fare In Tampa Bay? Look to Scotty Miller

The hottest preemptive pick of the fantasy season, Antonio Brown signed with the Buccaneers last week. This is further evidence that Tom Brady gets what he wants and is the de facto offensive decision-maker that matters most in Tampa Bay's facility.

If you don't believe it, realize that Brady lobbied for Rob Gronkowski's return to the field and recently had the team install plays that he and Gronkowski and success using in New England.

And yes, this is at least your third reminder from me that Rob Gronkowski will be a reliable fantasy TE1 moving forward, but back to why this matters for Brown's fantasy value. Many fear that if Brown is ready to perform to past expectations, he'll diminish the value of a top contributor on the offense.

The first inclination many had was Chris Godwin, who, like Brown, plays outside and inside. However, Godwin's versatility and connection with Brady seems to be the strongest of the receivers despite it appearing that Mike Evans and Brady had the best rapport during training camp. Once again, this is another reason why training camp can be deceptive.

Although reports have been positive that he's almost 100 percent, I suspect Evans is still battling through his high-ankle sprain and won't be in top shape this year. Even if he regains 100 percent fitness, he's made the most errors with Brady as a route runner and he's the least versatile of Godwin, Brown, Scott Miller, and Gronkowski.

It's why I believe Evans the player that Brown signing hurts the most for fantasy purposes. However, I'd argue that technically, the disruption has already occurred with Miller and little will change with Brown.

The reality of the situation may be that the player who is hurt the most is Miller. He and Brady have an excellent rapport with the vertical game and his speed, quickness, and ball-tracking are approximations of what Brown can bring in the same role.

When healthy enough to play at least 25 snaps, Miller has averaged 6 targets, 5 catches, 72 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns per game. A healthy Miller with that volume and production would, in theory, be on pace for an 80-catch, 1,152-yard, 6-touchdown season.

I had Brady projected to earn 4,979 yards and 38 scores this summer. So far, he's 400 yards off that yardage pace and 3 touchdowns ahead of the scoring pace. Keep in mind that he has also been playing with reserve tight ends and receivers for significant portions of the season.

Until I get it through people's heads, it's worth repeating annually that top quarterbacks can feed a lot of mouths. Based on Brady's performance, there's no reason to fear that Brown can't have value or it will hurt Gronkowski, Godwin, or even a healthier Evans (if this happens).

Think of Brown taking the opportunities that O.J. Howard and Miller would have otherwise earned if things were different. I had Howard and Miller combining for 94 targets, 62 catches, 739 yards, and 9 scores. While Miller won't completely wind up on the bench—it's a waste of an effective and efficient player—we should count on Brown taking a significant portion of Miller's and Howard's volume.

If you account for what Howard already earned, there are roughly 27 targets, 21 catches, 234 yards, and 4.5 touchdowns from Howard's projections available to Brown. If you cut Miller's pace in half and give the other have to Brown, that's 24 targets, 20 catches, 288 yards, and 2 scores.

If Brown proves reliable on and off the field, forecasting 51 targets, 41 catches, 522 yards, and 6-7 touchdowns for the final half of the season is viable. That's about 132.2 PPR fantasy points if using 6.5 touchdowns and fantasy WR1 territory for this stretch run.

I'd have to imagine that Brown won't acclimate this fast to the offense, but he managed 8 targets, 4 catches, 56 yards, and a touchdown with Brady for his single game as a Patriot in Week 2 last year. Considering that 51 targets, 41 catches, 522 yards, and 6-7 touchdowns on a per-game basis equates to 7 targets, 5.8 catches, 74.5 yards, and 0.9 scores, I wouldn't dismiss it.

Miller's usage between the 20s and O.J. Howard's red-zone usage should be a good guide for those wondering how Brown fits this scheme and his production potential.

2. Why JaMycal Hasty Was A Victim of Logo Scouting And Has Short- And Long-Term Value

I had Hasty graded as a high-end Contributor in the 2020 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, which means he was a capable player who could deliver starter execution in a limited role.

Here's a portion of my pre-draft scouting report on Hasty:

Hasty has the skills to become a fixture as a team's scatback who can deliver lead-back production when called upon for various stints of the season due to injuries. Hasty played in Baylor's spread system under Carolina Panthers Head Coach Matt Rhule, and it wouldn't be surprising if Rhule envisions Hasty as a redundancy play for Christian McCaffery if Hasty falls to the third day of the NFL Draft. Like McCaffery, Hasty's a patient runner when sifting through traffic and has no problem accessing tight creases to earn yardage. He's also a decisive gap runner who can manipulate blocks with changes to his gait. Once he reaches the second level, Hasty uses his excellent open-field skills and best-in-class acceleration to generate big plays

Hasty has the best of both worlds when it comes to movement. He has the curvilinear skills to bend around opponents at the edge to get downhill and do it with the pacing of Dalvin Cook, and he has the violent cuts and dramatic moves of players like Ahmad Bradshaw and Devonta Freeman...

...Hasty's 4.03-second, 20-Shuttle performance at the NFL Combine shows up in a big way when he's accelerating, stopping, and reaccelerating on the field. He wins the short corner easily and beats linebackers up the flat without a problem. Although his long speed is on the lowest end of the RSP's Starter Tier, it's enough when paired with his exceptional burst.

After Hasty fell in the draft, I listed him as an "Add Now" UDFA in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio Post-Draft Publication:

After trading Matt Breida to the Dolphins, the 49ers will roll with Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Jerrick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson, and Salvon Ahmed are good pass-catching backs but Hasty is the most dynamic of the three. He runs with better instincts than McKinnon and has that similar, high-quality, short-area explosion, too. If he can pass protect well enough, he could beat out Wilson and Ahmed for the final spot on the depth chart and like Mostert, develop into a capable contributor.

As you see, sometimes things work out as thought. And when you watch the player, it's clear why the 49ers thought they had something when he ran in practice but needed game situations to determine if it was consistent when the lights came on.

Within McKinnon and Coleman's injury histories and a recently "learned" feel for the position as pros that still can be wonky and Mostert's age and injuries, there's no doubt that Hasty could use this stretch-run to make the 49ers staff optimistic about his future as a long-term contributor in a committee. And if Hasty can withstand Kyle Shanahan's hard coaching of his potential stars in 2021 training camp, Hasty could have a Devonta Freeman-like rise long-term.

3. Boston Scott Will Help You, But Won't Be Your Fantasy Savior vs. Dallas...Or Will He?

Most regular readers know that I'm an original member of the Boston Scott Fan Club. Scott came up big against the Giants on Thursday night, not only delivering the game-winning catch against safety Jabril Peppers in man-to-man coverage but also riddling the Giants linebackers with yards after the catch in the underneath zones.

Scott earned 15 touches against the Giants with Miles Sanders recuperating from a knee injury. With the woeful Dallas Cowboys on the schedule next, is Scott a top plug-and-play option in Week 8 presuming Sanders will need the bye-week to return in Week 9?

Looking at the usage splits from Week 7, Corey Clement and Richard Huntley earned 5 touches and 34 yards. As much as I love Scott's game, expect Clement to earn at least 30 percent of the Eagles' ground-game share if the Eagles get ahead early and have an opportunity to pound the football.

Think of Scott as a good fantasy RB2 this week who might surprise with RB1 upside due to TDs scored. However, when you watch Scott work through the Giants' linebacking corps, remember that the Cowboys have superior athletes at the position who can run and hit.

On second thought, after watching the Cowboys linebackers, Scott could absolutely be as good as touted. He lacks breakaway speed, but the Dallas defense seems to have trouble corraling anything. I'd expect another 15-20 touches for Scott before the bye knowing that Sanders is back and the potential for a multi-touchdown performance.

4. Confirmed: Le'Veon Bell Will Make Clyde Edwards-Helaire's Production Volatile

Le'Veon Bell is not washed-up. He wound up on a team with a head coach that never wanted him and he played with a subpar offensive line. Most people watch offensive line play and its role in the run game with the same level of awareness that the first human sea travelers regarded icebergs as mostly what they saw on the surface, and it's the No.1 reason behind most fans and fantasy analyst errors with running back takes.

Even those that argue Bell wasn't good in Pittsburgh when the Steelers' line wasn't good don't understand that few backs are "good" without a certain level of line play. Walter Payton was a Hall of Famer because he delivered All-Pro production with bad offensive lines. This is an anomaly even for backs enshrined in Canton.

Bell is a good back—a Pro-Bowl-caliber talent. After watching Bell behind the Chiefs' offensive line, which has been leading the way for Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the competency of the Secret Service leading a Presidential Motorcade, there's no reason to curtail expectations for Bell earning a major role in this offense.

Based on what I saw, I still believe Bell will open up Edwards-Helaire's usage in the passing game. This could also lead to red-zone touchdowns for Edwards-Helaire as a receiver. However, once inside the five yard-line, I'd bet on Edwards-Helaire's appearance as the ballcarrier between the tackles to completely evaporate.

I'd also expect Bell to handle the two-minute offense because of his experience as a pass protector. Edwards-Helaire may still earn time in this role as a player who splits outside. That could be a high-leverage role for him that yields points but the ground touches will be Bell's.

Fifty-fifty load splits for Edwards-Helaire and Bell look like a reality, which renders both backs volatile RB3s with volatile RB2 upside/unstartable downside.

5. Atlanta's Defense Confirms What DAndre Swift Is as A 2020 Fantasy Commodity.

In last week's Gut Check, I studied Swifts (Box Score) Breakout against the Jaguars and determined that any call for him as a fantasy RB1 the rest of the way was premature. Swift had good moments, but based on what I saw below, he's still vulnerable to defenses with athletic linebackers, safeties, and corners with a "run-and-hit" style.

Atlanta's defense has been awful until Week 6 thanks to injuries and mistake-ridden play, but one commodity this unit has always had a core of run-and-hit talents with the likes of Keanu Neal, Dante Fowler, Deion Jones, and A.J. Terrell. The Falcons emphasized this skill in Week 6 when they shut down the Vikings ground game and it was this reason that I labeled Week 7's Detroit-Atlanta matchup as a telling indicator for Swift's fantasy future in 2020.

If Atlanta played close to it did in Week 6 and Swift couldn't manage to win in those situations where Atlanta attacked aggressively, then it's best to consider Swift a match-up fantasy commodity who wouldn't fare well against run-and-hit defenses. This is something he can improve (see the analysis above), but he'll likely need an offseason to address the flaws with his footwork.

After watching Swift this weekend, he's not ready. He may have earned chunks of yards in this game, but they came when Detroit caught Atlanta expecting a pass. And Detroit's coaching staff isn't matching its scheme to the talents and flaws of its backs.

Swift's pass protection also remains a work in progress.

As mentioned last week, Swift's best chance for more fantasy-starter outputs will come against teams with fewer run-and-hit players and that will be Weeks 10-13. Otherwise, he's a volatile option who will continue to share a lot of time with Adrian Peterson.

6. Denial: The State of Cleveland's Mindset In Lieu of Baker Mayfield's Performance vs. Cincinnati

I've seen enough to believe that Baker Mayfield is not a starter talent in the NFL until he sees the bench for an extended period of time and has an opportunity to work hard on his pocket management, red-zone timing, and accuracy under pressure. Before he can see the field in these situations his game needs work from the ground-up without the distraction of a starting gig.

Against mediocre-to-bad NFL defenses, Mayfield produces like he's playing in the Big 12. Against good NFL defenses, Mayfield looks like he did during the second half of the Georgia game in the Rose Bowl of his senior year.

This week, Mayfield delivered like a fantasy champ, but he did it against a Bengals' secondary that played like a bunch of chumps.

Three Baker Mayfield touchdowns from horrific secondary play from the Bengals won't change my impression of him. Were there positives? Sure, here are some of them, but they are baby steps relative to wholesale fixes of existing flaws.

After Mayfield threw the opening drive interception that cost Cleveland Odell Beckham, Jr. for the year, Cleveland resorted to a short-passing offense that prevented pressure from reaching Mayfield and allowed him to dink-and-dunk much of the game. He's always been effective in this regard if he can recognize the coverage and not deal with pressure.

Until we see him address these flaws, the Bengals' game was a false positive and it will string along Browns' fans another 2-3 weeks with the hope that Mayfield is turning a corner. I would not be acquiring Mayfield in fantasy leagues.

However, I would consider Rashard Higgins and, for deeper rosters, Donovan Peoples-Jones.

7. Kenny Golladay's Fantasy Value Is Rebounding

Ranked outside the scope of fantasy receivers after seven weeks, Kenny Golladay has put together a strong few weeks, including awesome play against Atlanta on Sunday afternoon. Golladay was repeatedly a force at the catch-point in difficult situations.

Imagine Golladay and Calvin Johnson with that Matthew "Stanford"? No drops from Kris Durham and Eric Ebron after Stafford did miracle work to just get them the ball. What might have been in a fantasy world of my making...

One thing is a reality: Golladay is a must-have for the rest of the season, especially when considering his schedule.

8. The Adjustments That Might Salvage Fantasy Value for A.J. Green

Sigmund Bloom asked me on last week's Audible Podcast who I would like to see traded and my first answer was A.J. Green. I explained that I thought he had value as a slot receiver for several offenses because of his hands, quickness, and understanding of coverage. I lamented that Green couldn't earn more slot looks in Cincinnati due to the excellence of Tyler Boyd's game but hoped the Bengals might figure something out.

They did against Cleveland, rolling with empty sets without Joe Mixon in the lineup and it worked well for Green and the offense.

Green earned 82 yards on 7 catches, and it was his second consecutive game with double-digit targets and at least 80 yards receiving. He's looking quicker now that he's had time on the field and there's an increased rapport between him and Burrow.

Even so, placing Tee Higgins and Mike Thomas outside and allowing Boyd and Green to begin inside is an excellent move that I hope isn't predicated solely on the loss of Mixon. It should last at least another week. If you're pessimistic that Green's slot value will go away upon Mixon's return, it's time to shop Green for what you can get.

9. The Case for JuJu Smith-Schuster Regaining Fantasy Value

I've had multiple readers ask me about JuJu Smith-Schuster last week. Why has his value declined? Will it return? Is it injury-related? I looked at Smith-Schuster's All-22 from the past few weeks and I also posed this question to the Roundtable panel in Week 7. Here were my thoughts:

I'm selling JuJu Smith-Schuster. I watched the All-22 of the past three games of the Steelers' receiver and it's clear that Smith-Schuster is the third read in this offense the majority of the time. When he's the first or second option in the progression, the Steelers are targeting him on crossing routes, screen passes, quick throw-outs to the flat, and the occasional over-route or out against zone where they hope it can leverage Smith-Schuster's skill after the catch.

Most of these looks are shorter passes but when he has been open on intermediate routes, Ben Roethlisberger has been inaccurate.

There's a possibility that opposing defenses will adjust its safety and linebacker play to pay more attention to Chase Claypool, James Washington, and Diontae Johnson and that will uncover the middle of the field enough for Smith-Schuster. Even so, I also wonder if the knee injury he's been dealing with is more serious than we know.

As Wood said, it's hard to explain a scenario where he'll earn more targets without significant injuries to at least two players in the rotation. Sadly, I'm selling.

Fast-forward to the Tennesse game and the return of Johnson and the recent emergence of Claypool created more opportunities for Smith-Schuster, who earned a respectable 9 catches for 85 yards, including 14 targets and some in the red zone. One notable development in Smith-Schuster's favor moving forward is that the Titans used Malcolm Butler exclusively on Claypool, giving the rookie the primary receiver treatment.

If this continues, Claypool may struggle down the stretch as he tries to beat top corners consistently as well as bracket coverage. It may also benefit Smith-Schuster, especially in an offense that appears to target players based on maximizing field space and cushion as a primary driver for its gameplan.

If Johnson and Claypool stay healthy, Smith-Schuster will continue earning Jarvis Landry-like targets against defenses that can generate pressure with four-man fronts and either follow Claypool around with a veteran cover corner or effectively bracket Claypool. Baltimore in Weeks 8 and 12 and Indianapolis in Week 15 have the best chance of repeating the Titans' plan. The rest are likely bracketing Claypool.

The conservative move for fantasy players is to hope for Smith-Schuster having another strong week against the Ravens this week and you can try to sell him as high as possible. The high-risk, high-reward move is to hang onto Smith-Schuster and hope that Steelers' opponents all overreact to Claypool and work hard enough to shut him down that Smith-Schuster becomes the easiest open target for Ben Roethlisberger to locate on a weekly basis.

This second option isn't a remote possibility, but I know you fantasy people and bad production scares you out of having hope.

10. Fresh Fish: Week 7

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd loving nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: Cowboys--Except Amari Cooper

What a nightmare this team was against Washington. The skill players dropped and tipped passes, the offensive line and pass protection was a sieve that Andy Dalton couldn't handle, and the backup forgot how to execute a toss play during his debut snap.

Then there's the defense who performed like incompetent security guards manning a secret lab filled with an alien creature capable of taking over the world if let loose.

Whether it's an offensive skill player, an individual defensive player, or a team defense, the Cowboys are the freshest fish in the NFL's Shawshank.

On to the rest of the Fresh Fish...

Houston's Defense: This unit has tons of exploitation value.

Todd Gurley: The Falcons running back scored twice. The second one he desperately didn't want...

While true that the Atlanta defense needed to stop Detroit, Gurley's mission was not to score and give the opponent time. He failed in a most ironic fashion.

Cincinnati's Defense: They cast another mass delusion spell on the Baker Mayfield hopefuls.

Chiefs TE Nick Keizer: He lost a fumble and gave up a sack of Patrick Mahomes II against the Broncos. If he continues earning time, start your safeties, corners, and linebackers that earn blitz assignments from the edge.

Thanks again for all of your feedback on this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags Analysis Davante Adams Salvon Ahmed Odell Beckham Jr Tyler Boyd Tom Brady Matt Breida Antonio Brown Harrison Bryant Chase Claypool Corey Clement Tevin Coleman James Conner Dalvin Cook Amari Cooper Andy Dalton Eric Ebron Clyde Edwards-Helaire Mike Evans Dante Fowler Jr Devonta Freeman Chris Godwin Kenny Golladay A.J. Green Rob Gronkowski JaMycal Hasty Rashard Higgins Tee Higgins O.J. Howard Kareem Hunt Diontae Johnson Deion Jones Jarvis Landry Patrick Mahomes II Baker Mayfield Scotty Miller Joe Mixon Raheem Mostert Keanu Neal Donovan Peoples-Jones Adrian Peterson Aaron Rodgers Ben Roethlisberger Miles Sanders Boston Scott JuJu Smith-Schuster Benny Snell Jr. D'Andre Swift A.J. Terrell Mike Thomas Robert Tonyan Jr James Washington Jeff Wilson Jr.

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