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The Top 10: Week 7

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 7
By Matt Waldman, October 19, 2020

The Top 10: Week 7
Photo: Imagn Images

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with an unsustainable process.

A good example is the recent James Conner-Benny Snell analysis. The pervading thought after last Monday night was that Snell outplayed James Conner. While Snell earned more playing time, played well, and out-produced Conner, the film didn't support the conclusion that Conner played poorly as much as his offensive line got off to a slow start and he suffered a minor ankle injury that concerned the team.

Snell may earn another opportunity to take the job from Conner as the season progresses but against the Broncos and Texans defenses, Conner did enough to keep his role as the feature back and the non-film narratives did not come to fruition. Based on the process of studying what makes a running back productive, Conner did nothing to lose his role to Snell.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy). Still, this work may help you make wiser decisions that will help your team in the long run.

As always, I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 6'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.

  1. In case you thought last year was a fluke, Ryan Tannehill is a legitimate fantasy starter and with A.J. Brown healthy, the Titans' quarterback is about to take flight.
  2. A.J. Brown is a complete receiver and poised for another stretch of strong fantasy production.
  3. Rob Gronkowski can still contribute as a receiver in every facet of the game and will be a reliable fantasy option for the rest of the year.
  4. Tim Patrick is a fantasy starter in most leagues and will remain one throughout the year.
  5. Josh Reynolds is a wasted commodity in L.A. because the first time the Rams have ever leveraged his skills in contested situations in four years was last night.
  6. Albert Okwuegbunam's debut was more promising than his box score and he could be a worthwhile preemptive addition for some fantasy rosters.
  7. As good as Calvin Ridley has been, he's not overtaking Julio Jones as long as Jones is healthy enough to play because of Jones' and Matt Ryan's ESP-level on-field rapport.
  8. The speed of linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David overmatched the Packers' offensive line on the ground and through the air. San Francisco and Indianapolis linebackers should fare well against Green Bay and expect another two weeks of strong production for the Buccaneers linebacking duo and the defense.
  9. Atlanta's defense beat the Vikings ground game with aggressive play and Dalvin Cook's presence wouldn't have mattered, so don't overreact to Alexander Mattison's lack of production.
  10. This week's Fresh Fish:
    1. Philadelphia's offensive line is the gift that will keep on giving in the sack and turnover department for opposing fantasy defenses and IDP opponents.
    2. Kirk Cousins was also in a giving mood--and frequently has been this year. It's a good sign for opposing fantasy defenses and IDP opponents as we head into the holiday season.
    3. Cooper Kupp had a career-night of drops and misplayed passes that you won't likely see again.
    4. Baker Mayfield's career as a permanent starter is coming to an end thanks to his limitations and lack of maturity.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. Ryan Tannehill Wasn't A Fluke In 2019

Based on Tannehill's summer ADP, it was clear that fantasy players didn't trust Ryan Tannehill's emergence as a legitimate fantasy starter. However, those that weren't believers this summer may be coming around to the idea now that there's a pattern of players who perform well when they escape Adam Gase's football purgatory.

I was a fan of Tannehill's prospects coming out of Texas A&M. A former All-Big 12 receiver with an NFL-caliber game at that position, Tannehill displayed the arm, pocket feel, mobility, and smarts of a pro quarterback.

However, the instability and dysfunction of the Miami organization created a lot of barriers to getting the most from a young passer. For much of Tannehill's Miami career, his game lacked the intuitive quality that binds all the physical, mental, and conceptual skills into the fluid play that long-term starters embody with their games.

This is to be expected with the amount of coaching and player turnover that Tannehill endured in Miami. While he may never become a quarterbacking mastermind that we see in field generals like Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees, Tannehill's 12 games with the Titans last year was a truer display of Tannehill's potential when paired with a good offensive line, skilled coaches, and a functional organization.

Tannehill's mobility and pocket management is the perfect complement for Derrick Henry and the Titans' ground game. A tested veteran, Tannehill has also developed the appropriate blend of skills to manage situational football in ways that younger talents often need years to attain and often never do because of the impatience with quarterback development that's common in the league.

Unlike Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins, who have their own set of issues working from a crowded pocket (Mayfield is unwilling and Cousins' management skills short-circuit), Tannehill knows when to step up and when to hang in.

Tannehill was the 24th-ranked fantasy quarterback after four weeks. The Titans didn't play in Week 4 and A.J. Brown missed two of the three remaining weeks of games. With Brown in the lineup up for only one of those weeks, Tannehill was still averaging 22.3 fantasy points per game, which placed him 13th among quarterbacks in points per game during that span.

Considering that most top fantasy producers have at least one primary receiver talent on the field, Tannehill held his own with a bunch of complementary passing-down players.

For the past two weeks with Brown in the lineup, Tannehill is averaging 32.6 fantasy points per game and his total points are the second only to Deshaun Watson during this span. With Cincinnati, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and a soft AFC South division schedule (including the Colts, who are a paper tiger on defense), Tannehill is poised for another strong run—including games against tougher units like the Steelers and Ravens.

It's probably too late to get Tannehill at a discount in many leagues but we all play with people who possess serious biases and due to Tannehill's history, there are bound to be fantasy GMs out there who think Tannehill is a sell-high proposition—especially after Taylor Lewan has been diagnosed with a torn ACL. Ty Sambrailo is a functional player and with right tackle Isaiah Wilson expected to return from the Covid List, soon, I'm not as concerned. Remember, Lewan has missed most of the past two weeks, which has been the time this passing game has increased its outputs.

The next segment is why they're wrong.

2. Buckle-Up, A.J. Brown Is Ready to Take Flight

If the Titans offense is a boat, Derrick Henry and the offensive line is the ship's body, Tannehill is its rudder, and Brown is its sails. While the media fawns over Brown's former teammate D.K. Metcalf—an excellent young talent—Brown is a far more complete receiver who can do everything Metcalf can and more.

It's why I've made the cross-sport comparison between Brown and Magic Johnson. My friend and occasional Rookie Scouting Portfolio contributor Eric Stoner calls Brown "Baby T.O."

By the way, an NFL GM once asked a former employee of his that I know, "who the #$@! is Eric Stoner?" and when that employee answered, the GM said, "Tell him to get a college degree and he'll have a job with me with a shot to become a GM one day."

Stoner has no desire for it but he's correct about Brown, who can beat opponents with speed, power, technique, and contested grace.

I hope you didn't give up on Brown this early because he's not only the sails of the Titans' ship, but he also brings the wind with him. Brown-rostered fantasy teams everywhere are about to see a surge in production.

3. You Gave Up Too Soon on Rob Gronkowski

Remember when folks were saying Gronkowski is washed-up? What was that, two weeks ago? Yeah, please feel free to ignore that noise. I sure did and I've enjoyed Gronkowski earning TE5 fantasy points during the past two weeks in PPR formats.

Why should I take that seriously, aren't Darren Fells, Trey Burton, and Anthony Firkser ranked 1st, 3rd, and 4th during this span?

For starters, Gronkowski's production isn't touchdown-inflated. He's fourth during this span in receiving yards, his 16.3 yards per catch is among the best of the top-10 options during this span, and he's tied for fifth with 8 receptions.

The most important argument isn't statistical: Tom Brady told the FOX broadcast crew this week that, after O.J. Howard's injury, he and Gronkowski have begun incorporating concepts into the Buccaneers offense that were successful in New England.

Now that we have data and strategic motivation that match, let's look at the film. You'll discover that Rob Gronkowski is far from washed-up.

As mentioned above, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and Tony Gonzalez are excellent comparisons when considering late-career Gronkowski's fantasy prospects. Witten has played 17 years in the NFL and was still a top-12 option 6 out of 7 times during years 10-16.

Gonzalez was a top-10 option and almost annually a top-five option from years 9-12 with Kansas City. After the Chiefs traded Gonzalez to Atlanta, he was TE6 in years 13 and 14, TE4 in year 15, TE2 in year 16, and TE4 in year 17.

Gates was TE3 in year 12 and TE12 in year 14 despite a foot injury and the wear and tear of age catching up with him.

In fact, all three players were athletic approximations of their Hall of Fame peaks. All three possessed the baseline athletic ability to get open against zone coverage, beat linebackers one-on-one, and they had rapport with their veteran quarterbacks.

Gronkowski has all of this and he's still athletic enough to beat defensive backs in specific man-to-man situations. Go ahead, be naive, and believe what Bruce Arians said last month (when O.J. Howard was healthy) about Gronkowski only being brought in to block. I didn't believe it when Howard was healthy and I certainly don't believe it now.

Even if Mike Evans finally gets healthy (if he does) from his high-ankle sprain, the Buccaneers know they need to leverage Gronkowski's receiving skills and rapport with Tom Brady. Don't let that be lost on you when considering tight ends.

4. WR Tim Patrick Is A Legit Fantasy Starter for 2020

Among the several "Add-Now" recommendations made in my weekly Replacements feature that has born fruit is this Broncos wide receiver with the big frame and a big-play game. A star receiver at Utah, Patrick showed enough for the past two years in Denver to take his game seriously whenever he's on the field.

One of the reasons is Denver's willingness to scheme its receivers open in creative ways.

Patrick gets deep with build-up speed, which means he's not a great fit for quick-hitting timing routes as the first read off three- and five-step drops. However, he's a big-bodied and physical player with excellent contested-catch skills whose build-up speed makes him a good match for second-read intermediate routes as well as first-read routes when the offense incorporates play-action passing.

These vertical routes have been the wheelhouse of Patrick's production and with Drew Lock healthy, expect to see a rise in viable targets in this range for Patrick on a consistent basis. There is no other receiver like Patrick on the roster now that Courtland Sutton is on IR. The closest option to Patrick among the reserves was Juwann Winfree and Denver let him go to Green Bay.

And because Patrick is physical and reliable, Denver will continue scheming the receiver open during pivotal down-and-distance situations that may not match his game on the surface. This third-down target below is a good example.

If you're a losing fantasy squad fighting to return to contender status, banking on players like Patrick while selling off better-known commodities is a worthwhile strategy. So is buying Patrick's services at a relative discount.

Patrick is WR35 after five weeks averaging 12.6 points per game. Brandin Cooks is WR27 with 12.6 fantasy points per game and Marquise Brown is 29th with 11.6 fantasy points per game. If you have one of these two or one of the following options where there may be greater optimism about their remaining schedule and production than their current value, you may be in the market for a deal:

If a team has Patrick, you might be able to squeeze Patrick and a second player of value to your team in exchange for one of the options above and come away with greater value. Think of Patrick and a good injury-insurance back for your starter (Benny Snell to James Conner, Tony Pollard to Ezekiel Elliott, etc.) and could find yourself profiting from those who don't see value in Patrick beyond a bye-week play.

5. Josh Reynolds Has Been A Wasted Commodity in L.A.

Practically a meaningless play during a convincing 49ers victory over the Rams Sunday night was this Reynolds touchdown reception that he caught in a contested situation during the fourth quarter.

It's a sad situation as a fantasy analyst because Reynolds was arguably the best contested-catch option of the 2017 wide receiver draft class. While true that contested situations are often low-percentage plays, back-shoulder fades are a common route that the Rams have failed to leverage with Reynolds' game.

If you're thinking, If Reynolds was good, the Rams would have made the effort, keep in mind that Robert Woods never sniffed 800 yards during four seasons with the Bills and has had consecutive 1,100-yard campaigns in L.A.

Scheme fit is the reason. Reynolds may not blossom like Woods in a new town but if you're a dynasty player, don't dismiss it. He could be a cheap buy-low in these formats. And if Sean McVay realizes that Reynold's contested skills could be a productive element for his offense, lookout.

6. Albert Okwuegbunam's Debut Was Better Than His Box Score

It's easy to become too myopic with one's analysis of a player's performance, especially when evaluating younger talents. Box score production is too simplistic. NextGen data or "advanced analytics," also may not match the proper field context that comes with strong film analysis.

However, film analysis is a craft that, like statistics is subject to interpretation, but unlike some stat-oriented salesmen, film folks don't deny the subjectivity of their work. Well, that's not true. I've seen a lot of "they eye don't lie," statements that proved inaccurate.

In the case of Albert Okwuegbunam's debut with the Broncos, the rookie tight end's 2-catch, 45-yard box score against the Patriots reveals some promise. The fact he earned six targets and only caught two might be a source of disappointment for some, especially when considering four of those targets he didn't catch were in the end zone.

I believe the film tells an encouraging story.

Okwuegbunam set up the Broncos' first score of the game by drawing a defensive pass interference foul on a wheel route in the first quarter and had no chance to win the ball. Another red-zone target was a technical error where I suggested he needs work on getting his hands together. And the final target had improved, but still not ideal, hand position to make the play and that's not including the defensive back's well-timed play on the ball.

When I watch these plays, I see a tight end who nearly earned these tough targets that he'll earn more chances next week. Throw in the fact that Okwuegbunam and Lock were college teammates, and Lock specifically lobbied for Okwuegbunam's selection and I have little doubt that we'll see more shots in the coming weeks against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Falcons if Noah Fant doesn't make his return.

Fant was 50-50 for the Patriots game, so there's a chance that he's back in the lineup for the Chiefs game. Even so, monitor this depth chart closely for the next few weeks. With K.J. Hamler injured, DaeSean Hamilton not showing the ability to transition to the NFL, and Diontae Spencer hurt, it's likely that Okwuegbunam could earn time on the field and targets even when Fant returns.

Since all three opponents have good offenses, it makes Okwuegbunam a decent desperation play with high-point potential in PPR formats as a bye-week play, who could develop into more if Fant has a setback or underperforms.

7. Julio Jones and Matt Ryan Have ESP-Level Rapport

Contrary to my earlier impressions about Calvin Ridley in this weekly feature, I'm reversing course and betting on Julio Jones the rest of the way as the mo. It's not that Ridley won't the future No.1 receiver in Atlanta, but I believe September was only a preview of that ascent which wasn't fully arrived.

During the past two weeks, Jones has slightly out-produced Ridley on the basis of one touchdown, so it's not really the box score that provides a sound argument.

Both Ridley and Jones have suffered recent injuries. Jones has the hamstring while you could probably name a part of Ridley's leg and there was a problem with it. Hamstring injuries are tricky issues, but Jones seems to be recovering from his. Ridley seems to be over his litany of woes but cramping bumped him from the Vikings game and into the locker room for fluids.

While it's not likely you'll get Jones at a significant discount, the tenor of some fantasy analysts—especially on the nameless blurbs with questionable editorializing that exist with every fantasy website—is that Jones is on the decline.

I'm not ready to make that declaration. As long as Jones doesn't aggravate the healing hamstring, he's still the most dominant receiver on the team and one of the league's best. He also possesses an uncanny rapport with Matt Ryan that Ridley does not have.

Don't take this as a recommendation to sell-high on Ridley. However, do take it as an opportunity to buy-low on Jones.

8. LBs Devin White and Lavonte David Beat the Packers: What It Means for Fantasy Formats

As with every victory and defeat, there are far more reasons than the one's journalists and analysts like myself supply when we're distilling a game down to its essential moments. Still, what jumped off the screen for me during Tampa Bay's drubbing of Green Bay was the linebacker duo of Devin White and Lavonte Davis beating the Packers line in all phases of the game.

White and David earned free runs to Aaron Jones early in this contest thanks to their speed and the slow reactions of the Packers line to reach the second level.

Tampa's early shutdown of the run made a big difference in this contest and the fact that Jamaal Williams' 25-yard run was half of the yardage the Packers ground game earned by the fourth quarter is the result of forcing Green Bay to the air with greater frequency than desired.

Once airborne, the Buccaneers duo decided to reenact Snakes on a Plane with its pressure that the Packers' front couldn't handle.

Tampa Bay faces a slow Raiders front, a struggling Giants line with a pocket-deaf quarterback under center, and a weak Panthers line during three of the next four weeks. Tampa's Defense should remain one of the strongest units for fantasy and David and White are well worth their top-10 status in IDP formats.

9. Atlanta's Defense Deserves More Credit Than Alexander Mattison and Mike Boone Deserve Blame

Atlanta's defense came into this game as the patsy that would make Alexander Mattison, and possibly Mike Boone, fantasy values in Week 6. By the game's end, it was clear that Atlanta's unit had more in reserve than what has appeared on the field.

While Kirk Cousins gets credit for staring down defenders twice for two of his three interceptions, the Falcons outran the Vikings to the point of attack in the run game and like the Buccaneers-Packers contest, this made a big difference in the outcome.

While I'm not outright recommending the Atlanta defense as a surprise streamer, cornerback A.J. Terrell raised his game this week and Atlanta faces a trio of offenses in Detroit, Carolina, and Denver that have weaker offense lines and lean on the ground game.

If Atlanta can shut the run down early, it could lead to enough mistake-prone moments that give the Falcons' units streamer value. If desperate during this bye-week phase of the season, Atlanta's defense could be worth your time if they disrupt Detroit in Week 7 as they did against the Vikings in Week 6.

10. Fresh Fish: Week 6

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd loving nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: Philadelphia's Offense

What do you get when you combine an offensive line that refuses to stay healthy and a quarterback who refuses to play cautious football? Well, against the Ravens you give up six sacks, and four forced fumbles. I haven't spent much time on the Eagles because they are an injured mess but weaker defenses like the Cowboys, Bengals, and Jaguars coming to town, it's worth a reminder that this trio of down-trodden units could get healthy for a week after facing Philadelphia.

On to the rest of the Fresh Fish...

  1. Kirk Cousins: He stared down two routes that were easy interceptions during the first half and his third pick-off was a deflected pass while trying to throw from a compressed pocket.
  2. Cooper Kupp: The Rams receiver dropped multiple targets, including one in the end zone in the fourth quarter. Kupp and Goff were also lacking rapport with deeper routes that didn't have the correct placement. This was an unusual week for Kupp and probably the worst you'll see from him in a while.
  3. Baker Mayfield: I hope Cleveland has figured out that he can't climb the pocket because he can't see the field clearly when he does (and this has less to do with his height than most think), his college accuracy data was never going to translate to consistent pinpoint accuracy when you study the film, and he's often 1-2 beats late as a decision-maker--especially in the red zone. I compared Mayfield pre-draft to an aspiring Jeff Garcia despite seeing Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and Brett Favre comps flying about everywhere. Want an autopsy on Mayfield's starting career? Most who have read it believe this is an accurate depiction of Mayfield's struggles in Cleveland.

Thanks again for all of your feedback on this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags Analysis Mike Boone Tom Brady A.J. Brown Marquise Brown D.J. Chark Jr Randall Cobb James Conner Brandin Cooks Dalvin Cook Kirk Cousins Lavonte David Ezekiel Elliott Mike Evans Noah Fant Darren Fells Anthony Firkser Rob Gronkowski KJ Hamler Derrick Henry Tee Higgins O.J. Howard Aaron Jones Deion Jones Julio Jones Cooper Kupp Jarvis Landry Drew Lock Alexander Mattison Baker Mayfield DK Metcalf DJ Moore Albert Okwuegbunam DeVante Parker Tim Patrick Tony Pollard Josh Reynolds Calvin Ridley Matt Ryan Emmanuel Sanders Laviska Shenault Jr Irv Smith Jr. Benny Snell Jr. Diontae Spencer Courtland Sutton Ryan Tannehill A.J. Terrell Deshaun Watson Devin White Jamaal Williams Russell Wilson Juwann Winfree Robert Woods

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