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The Top 10: Week 2

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 2
By Matt Waldman, September 21, 2020

The Top 10: Week 2
Photo: Imagn Images

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with an unsustainable process.

A good example is the recent James Conner-Benny Snell analysis. The pervading thought after last Monday night was that Snell outplayed James Conner. While Snell earned more playing time, played well, and out-produced Conner, the film didn't support the conclusion that Conner played poorly as much as his offensive line got off to a slow start and he suffered a minor ankle injury that concerned the team.

Snell may earn another opportunity to take the job from Conner as the season progresses but against the Broncos defense, Conner did enough to keep his role as the feature back and the non-film narratives did not come to fruition. Based on the process of studying what makes a running back productive, Conner did nothing to lose his role to Snell.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy). Still, this work may help you make wiser decisions that will help your team in the long run.

As always, I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 2'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.

  1. Diontae Johnson and Calvin Ridley are earning the types of targets you see from primary receivers in an offense. They are assuming this mantle for their teams.
  2. Laviska Shenault is an emerging star who should be counted on as no worse than a match-up starter this year.
  3. Josh Allen is a better quarterback, but his fantasy value is still linked to matchups so be prepared for the occasional valley in production.
  4. Dak Prescott is a better quarterback than Josh Allen and has greater potential for weekly consistency.
  5. Russell Wilson remains the best deep thrower in the game and how the Seahawks will use D.J. Metcalf to make him a double-digit touchdown scorer.
  6. Will Julian Edelman outperform his career averages with Cam Newton under center? It the early indications are correct, he's in store for a career year.
  7. K.J. Hamler got lost in this prolific class of rookie receivers but his skills have a lot of similarities to a young Tyler Lockett.
  8. Darrell Henderson earned his shot against the Eagles and showed the big-play potential he displayed at Memphis.
  9. Jonathan Taylor illustrates what meaningful yards after contact looks like and why it matters for fantasy players.
  10. This week's Fresh Fish:
    1. Kirk Cousins has not corrected his greatest flaws as a decision-maker and it's hurting the Vikings offense.
    2. Justin Herbert managed his unexpected NFL debut well enough to keep the Chargers in the game until he make a rookie mistake.
    3. Preston Williams had an egregious drop in the end zone at the end of the game because of poor technique with his attack of the target.
    4. Matt Ryan hit the snooze button on his pocket clock and lets Everson Griffen earn a pivotal sack late in the game that kept Dallas' hopes alive.
    5. Falcons defense, which is still a liability and makes most fantasy matchups juicy for each team's players.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. Diontae Johnson and Calvin Ridley Are Assuming the Mantle of Primary Receiver

Two years ago, the Steelers and Falcons had the best two primary receivers in the NFL. A healthy Julio Jones still qualifies as such, but for the past two years, he spends significant amounts of time games limping to the sideline and missing anywhere between a series to a quarter. Although he often makes up for missed time with massive production on the field, it's wise to presume that the amount of time missed will be greater and the subsequent production will compensate less.

Meanwhile, Steelers fans and fantasy players figured out that JuJu Smith-Schuster is an excellent receiver who needs more game-planning to get separation downfield.

The best high-volume fantasy targets earn big plays and without surrounding talent to stretch the field and earn respect from top defenders, a receiver like Smith-Schuster will see his game confined to short and intermediate routes.

Pittsburgh has drafted well to ameliorate that concern. Rookie Chase Claypool put opponents on notice with an 84-yard score on a deep go route against the Broncos while James Washington and Eric Ebron have proven dangerous in the vertical game.

However, it's Dontae Johnson who is on pace to replace Antonio Brown as the primary weapon who can make opponents pay for focusing too much on Smith-Schuster. Johnson's 13-target performance for 92 yards and a touchdown on Sunday demonstrated the big-play ability the second-year receiver has at the catch point and as a ballcarrier.

As opposing defenses see the recent film of Johnson as the clear primary option, look for Smith-Schuster to earn bigger plays, especially if Claypool, Ebron, and/or Washington deliver with greater consistency. And that's a welcome development for Smith-Schuster, who is already knocking on the door of the fantasy WR1 tier.

Calvin Ridley has been a good fantasy WR2 for the past two years, but he lacked WR1 consistency at the catch point. He also didn't win the tough targets that are the hallmark of a primary option that a quarterback will target during pivotal moments of a game where the defense knows what's coming and still can't stop it.

With a quarterback like Matt Ryan, whose footwork is tied more to his route choices than any passer in the NFL. Ryan excels in this area and for many years, his timing routes with his primary receivers have been difficult to stop in these scenarios, beginning with Roddy White, continuing with Jones, and at least Sunday, it appears that Ridley is earning this mantle.

The Falcons beat writers relayed the message to the public that Ridley and the offense seemed poised to transition Ridley to a primary role. When healthy (and he wasn't on Sunday), Jones will remain a massive factor who can lead Falcons receivers, but based on the route choices above—especially the third-down call in the fourth quarter—Ridley is beginning his transition into Jones' role.

As the No.1 receiver in fantasy leagues by a margin that's the same number of points per game that the No.2 receiver has earned thus far, Rildey's tape indicates that the box score is more sustainable than two weeks of data may appear.

2. Laviska Shenault Is an Emerging Star

Many draft analysts consider Shenault the class's greatest boom-bust prospect among the receivers. Used as an H-Back at Colorado and beset with toe, shoulder, and hernia injuries within the span of a year, observers feared that Shenault was a raw gadget player with great athletic ability who may never see the field enough to develop into a complete player.

Maybe the right answer is that Shenault is a more refined player than originally thought who suffered a cluster of injuries that aren't a sign of durability problems. Watching Shenault run routes at Colorado, his game had more nuance with stems and breaks than characterized.

What I feared (and still fear) is that the desire to use Shenault as a gadget and wear him down. He's a big, physical receiver with the vision, footwork, pad level, and finish of a back. This bounce and finish against the Titans on Sunday is testament to this point.

He's also an unselfish team player who takes it to defenders as a blocker.

A lingering fear this summer was that the Jaguars would turn him into a bigger Tavon Austin or Cordarrelle Patterson when his refinement as a route runner was already much better. So far, the staff as abated my concerns.

He's already a more refined receiver than Courtland Sutton during Sutton's rookie year. However, the appeal he has as a running back could stunt his development due to the risk of injury.

Clearly, Shenault isn't the best all-round runnign back on the depth chart but if you watch how athletic and at ease he is in the role, it's no mystery why the Jaguars find him good enough to use from a backfield alignment whereas other good receivers with ball-carrying skills are given jet sweeps and quick screens. I recommended Gardner Minshew as a preseason value because of the strength of this Jaguars receiving corps, including the promise of Shenault.

Although Shenault's starter-caliber fantasy production may not land him in the top-24 at his position on a weekly basis this year, the versatility of his usage—especially as an intermediate receiver—is encouraging enough to count on him as a part of your rotation. He has done enough to earn weekly match-up consideration with WR1 upside due to his big-play athletic ability in formats with 3-4 starting wide receivers.

3. Josh Allen Will Improve His Fantasy Standing in 2020, But Valleys Are Ahead

The Bills' quarterback is the No.1 fantasy passer after two weeks, and he's earning praise for his development. Allen earned 417 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, inlcuding a two-play sequence of vertical passes late in the game to seal the victory.

These two plays sum up a lot about Allen's production and development trajectory. Both are downfield crossing routes that are breaking open as part of dual crossing route combinations. These are slow-developing plays against man-to-man coverage that often benefit from a play-action component.

Intermediate and deep crossing routes are among the easiest routes at these ranges to deliver with accuracy. This is important, because Allen's deep accuracy was among the worst in the NFL last year. With this ground game, the speed of John Brown and Stefon Diggs, and the strength of Allen's arm, the Bills desperately need improvement from the vertical passing game for this offense to work.

The crossing routes are making this happen. These are the easiest routes to uncover from man-to-man (they aren't called man-beaters for nothing) and it gives Allen more windows of opporutnity to deliver the ball. Every receiver on the depth chart can run these routes and generate production.

As long as the Bills can run the ball effectively (and many argue the effectiveness of the run doesn't matter), the use of play-action will buy enough time for these slow-developing downfield routes to work. It means Allen and his receivers should have success against defenses that play a lot of man-to-man coverage or Cover 3 combinations where the cornerbacks essentially play man-to-man in many instances.

This is enough of the league that Allen should deliver fantasy QB1 production this year as along as Brown and Diggs remain healthy. The tests will come against the Chiefs, 49ers, Steelers, and Patriots (twice). These are five games where the teams will play man-to-man but have enough complexity with their blitz and coverage packages to challenge Allen's conceptual development.

And yes, there has been development with Allen's game. He's showing accuracy on pure vertical routes, getting better with shorter drop plans, and he showed skill to extend a red-zone play without taking too much time to find the open receiver.

In the past, especially on this touchdown to the rookie Davis, Allen would take too long and be forced to squeeze the ball into a tighter space than necessary if he identified and anticipated the target quicker or he'd be forced to run or throw the ball out of bounds. Efficient and accurate red-zone processing is often the difference between elite quarterbacks and inconsistent starters.

Despite the positive developments, Allen's game still has flaws that could result in some difficult weeks. He get away with the two plays shown below but he won't do so consistently.

You could even add the Diggs reception on the fourth-quarter crossing route as a throw Allen got away with. Miami also lost Pro Bowl safety Reshad Jones for most of the contest. There will be tougher competition ahead and as productive as Allen has been when the Bills spread the field in empty or run dual crossers, there's competition ahead that will get more pressure and do a better job of disguising coverage.

If you have Allen as a committee starter and you're happy with your second option, congratulations on an astute decision. You'll may need that option in Weeks 6, 8, 13, 14, and 16. If you went all-in on Allen, it's time to consider some low-cost passers who could help you as a spot starter.

4. I'll Take Dak Prescott Over Josh Allen Even If the Numbers Currently Favor Allen

Although Allen is the No.1 fantasy passer after two weeks, I'll easily take Prescott ahead of Allen if given the opportunity. His run game, trio of wide receivers, and his situational awareness and decision-making are all superior to Allen at this point of Allen's career. Atlanta's defense is the weakness of the organization, but Prescott's 19-point comeback is still a praiseworthy event that had much to do with his performance.

Prescott was decisive against pressure packages, exploited weaknesses in the Falcons' coverage, and he's wiser and more creative under pressure than Allen.

Prescott also understands how to read the field efficiently—something that veteran Kirk Cousins still hasn't figured out.

If someone has Allen fever and they're willing to deal away a player like Prescott, jump that that opportunity. Otherwise, remain patient and optimistic about your Cowboys receiving corps because the passing touchdowns will come.

5. Russell Wilson's Elite Deep Game And How It Took Down Stephon Gilmore

Wilson is completing 82.5 percent of his passes an insane two-game number considering that he's also averaging 9.68 yards per attempt. No.1 fantasy quarterback Josh Allen is average 9 yards per attempt. Allen's 70 percent completion rate is fantastic, especially with an average yards of attempt of 9, and he's still far behind Wilson.

Wilson has always thrown a great deep ball. Here's his worst one of the night to David Moore, a target where the placement was still good enough that only Moore could earn it.

One of his best was a touchdown throw to D.K. Metcalf where he placed the ball just ahead of All-Pro Stephon Gilmore. This play also illustrates how the Seahawks put Metcalf in the slot to leverage his strengths and minimize his weaknesses so he could earn a mismatch with arguably the best cornerback in football.

Although Metcalf is improving his breaks with routes coming back to the quarterback, using him in the slot allows him to reach full speed and win space toward the sideline late in the route. He also earns a two-way-go against his opponent, which puts the defender at an inherent disadvantage unless he gets help from a safety over the top.

With Tyler Lockett, Moore (or a healthy Phillip Dorsett), Greg Olsen, and Will Dissily, there aren't many defenses that will put a safety over the top of Metcalf. With this combination of skill talent and the Seahawks' willingness to open the offense, this could be Russell Wilson's MVP season.

Especially when you realize that Wilson's gifts extend well beyond the deep ball. His red-zone decision-making is also tops.

With the weapons it already has, no wonder it turned away Paul Richardson Jr as a short-term option. Josh Gordon will earn another opportunity by midseason and could put the Seahawks offense at even another level.

6. Is Julian Edelman Better off with Cam Newton? Yes

Too early to say yes? Sure. After all, Edelman's average of 18.2 yards per catch is not sustainable. However, it's an indication of the way the Patriots are using its receivers and Edelman's success isn't just scheme but skill.

Damiere Byrd and Edelman are the fastest receivers on the squad. N'Keal Harry is a slow man's Kelvin Benjamin and/or Devin Funchess. He's glue-fingered, tough, and can win against tight coverage, but he's not separating from cornerbacks.

The Patriots are scheming Harry open with targets that would often go to Edelman. Byrd is the Phillip Dorsett option. It leaves Edelman in role that's a blend of Jakobi Meyers and Chris Hogan, players who worked from the slot and averaged between 13.8 and 15.2 yards per catch.

Edelman's speed, quickness, and routes skills are clearly enough to present a mismatch to a safety like Adams and the Patriots will continue attacking the deep seams and middle, especially with a quarterback like Newton who can buy time. An 18-yard-per-catch season is unlikely, but a 96-catch season at 13-14 yards per catch is roughly a 1,300-yard campaign.

Edelman's injury history may not allowed it, but having Edelman produce at a 1,300-yard rate for as long as he's healthy is not an oddball expectation.

7. K.J. Hamler is Legit

Jerry Jeudy may be the talk of Denver's football fanbase, but the rookie Hamler is showing why there's a substantial amount of Tyler Lockett to his game. Hamler is explosive, makes productive adjustments against tight coverage downfield, and he's willing to work over the middle.

Get Hamler in the open field, and he'll make John Elway forget all about Isaiah McKenzie, Carlos Henderson, and Cody Latimer. If Courtland Sutton misses substantial playing time, Hamler becomes a legitimate fantasy option worth as roster spot.

Otherwise, Hamler is a player to monitor weekly until it becomes abundantly clear that he's going to become a big part of the game plan. Consider this advanced notice.

8. Darrell Henderson: Creating a Backfield Nightmare?

The Eagles are not a top defensive unit. Still, we expected Henderson to make his mark well before Week 2 of 2020. And at the same time, it was almost as much of a surprise that Henderson split touches with Malcolm Brown (due to a Cam Akers injury) as it was for Justin Herbert to earn a last-minute start due to Tyrod Taylor aggravating a chest injury.

Left tackle Andrew Whitworth expressed the most excitement about Henderson's potential during the offseason—even after the Rams drafted Akers. For me, that was a telling remark because the two positions that I've found know the most about running backs—and often more than former running backs—are middle linebackers and offensive linemen.

The fact Whitworth expressed excitement in the media, a veteran who has worked with a number of successful runners, was an indication not to give up on Henderson despite wondering if he'll make the adjustment to a zone-based scheme or if the Rams would use more gap and man blocking. Based on Sunday's performance, Henderson looked comfortable with man and zone blocking, finding interior cutbacks.

He also caught the ball well downfield and displayed some contact balance at the goal line. It was also good to see that his teammates were genuinely excited for him, which can be an indication that Henderson has been working at his craft and waiting his turn.

For most of you with interest in the Rams' ground game, the emergence of Henderson is likely bad news because you invested in Akers or Brown. And from a fantasy point of view, it's probably the worst-case scenario—a three-headed committee until there's an injury.

For now, Henderson and Brown will earn a split while Akers rehabs his injury. Henderson gives Sean McVay the ever-elusive scatback he has wanted since getting weaned from the Shanahan coaching tree that wanted the same. It will require an Akers and Brown injury for Henderson to earn the majority of playing time and even then, I'd keep an eye peeled for rookie Xavier Jones.

If Akers' injury proves minor, this will be a three-way committee until one proves too valuable to take off the field. If Brown gets hurt, we'll still see a split with Akers and Henderson. It's more likely that Akers or Brown earns featured status than Henderson based on their size and how teams perceive size as an important facet of the role.

9. Jonathan Taylor Demonstrates What Meaningful YAC Looks Like

Clyde Edwards-Helaire averaged well over two yards after contact per attempt in his debut against the Houston Texans. It's also abundantly clear that the context of Helaire's production after contact is not a true indication of power, although a majority of analysts and fans are behaving as if it is.

Once you regain a dose of critical thinking, you come to realize that Edwards-Helaire earned a copious yards after contact figure because those anonymous graders making an hourly wage are not taught to differentiate types of contact or discern which types of contact are more meaningful expressions of power and contact balance. One day, this may change, but for now, an apple, a persimmon, and a kiwi are all fruit and that's good enough for these entities.

Edwards-Helaire's shiftiness and quickness help him avoid direct contact, but that shouldn't influence how one grades power. There are powerful backs shifty enough to avoid direct contact as well. You don't double-dip in one category because another may actually help inflate the score. Instead, you fix the two categories to earn an appropriate value and separate the skills so you're not unintentionally biasing the value of one style of back ahead of another.

Edwards-Helaire will generate plenty of fantasy value as an elusive runner who can catch the football. But as we saw once again (or at least it became clearer for most of you bedazzled by the opening night highlights) in L.A., Edwards-Helaire's contact balance is an overstated strength of his game and it's probably more accurate to characterize it as slightly below average to well below average when isolating it to contact against box defenders.

Colts starter Jonathan Taylor isn't as elusive as Edwards-Helaire (although he's closer to Edwards-Helaire's elusiveness than Edwards-Helaire's power and contact balance is to Taylor), but if Edwards-Helaire's contact balance is Junior-sized, then Taylor's is straight out of the big and tall store.

And here's a little agility-quickness for you.

Taylor is one neighborhood over in style from Nick Chubb, and there's a for sale sign with a property on the same street that he's pre-qualified to buy. More important, keep your eyes open for metrics that don't reflect what's apparent on the field. Chase Stuart of Footballperspective.com sums this up well when discussing which metrics have or don't have value.

10. Fresh Fish: Week 2

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd loving nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: Kirk Cousins.

A highly paid starter in this league, Cousins has earned strong production throughout his career. He's also known for his inconsistent play, fading against quality competition, and making awful decisions that he should have outgrown during his first two seasons. Yet, as shown above in the Prescott segment, he still regresses to these behaviors.

The reason may be hubris. Since his years at Michigan State, it seems Cousins believes he has the arm talent to fulfill his wildest visions, which often appear at the most inopportune times. The throw into coverage shown earlier is an example. His placement and touch are also off-kilter at the worst times.

  1. Justin Herbert managed his unexpected NFL debut well enough to keep the Chargers in the game until he make a rookie mistake.
  2. Preston Williams had an egregious drop in the end zone at the end of the game because of poor technique with his attack of the target.
  3. Matt Ryan hit the snooze button on his pocket clock and lets Everson Griffen earn a pivotal sack late in the game that kept Dallas' hopes alive.
  4. Falcons defense, which is still a liability and makes most fantasy matchups juicy for each team's players.

Thanks again for all of your feedback with this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags Analysis Cam Akers Josh Allen Tavon Austin Antonio Brown John Brown Malcolm Brown Damiere Byrd Nick Chubb Chase Claypool James Conner Kirk Cousins Gabe Davis Stefon Diggs Phillip Dorsett Eric Ebron Clyde Edwards-Helaire Stephon Gilmore Josh Gordon Everson Griffen KJ Hamler Darrell Henderson Jr. Justin Herbert Chris Hogan Jerry Jeudy Diontae Johnson Julio Jones CeeDee Lamb Tyler Lockett Isaiah McKenzie DK Metcalf Jakobi Meyers Gardner Minshew David Moore Cam Newton Cordarrelle Patterson Dak Prescott Calvin Ridley Ben Roethlisberger Matt Ryan Dalton Schultz Laviska Shenault Jr JuJu Smith-Schuster Benny Snell Jr. Courtland Sutton Jonathan Taylor Tyrod Taylor James Washington Preston Williams Russell Wilson

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