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The Top 10 from Week 1

Matt Waldman's The Top 10 from Week 1
By Matt Waldman, September 14, 2020

The Top 10 from Week 1
Photo: Imagn Images

MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with an unsustainable process.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

As always, I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 1'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.

  1. The 2020 rookie running back class is an excellent one. Here are my thoughts on the debuts of several first-year runners from Week 1:
    • Clyde Edwards-Helaire displayed his vision and quickness behind a Chiefs line that excelled on Thursday. His short-yardage work needs improvement.
    • J.K. Dobbins showed off his vision and burst during the first half and in the second half, earned more carries than we should expect from him in the near future.
    • After Marlon Mack suffered a torn Achilles, Jonathan Taylor gave fans a taste of his great acceleration and power. He'll be a staple of this ground game.
    • Joshua Kelley earned more playing time with his display of creative problem-solving and speed. He may have a medium-sized version of the Melvin Gordon Role.
    • James Robinson's burst, receiving skills, and balance make him a legitimate lead back in the Jaguars' committee backfield.
    • Cam Akers started the game, but his patience needs refinement with zone blocks and Malcolm Brown was the best option in the Rams' backfield.
  2. Don't overreact to the Buccaneers' troubles against the Saints, there were signs of life and future fantasy heights for Tom Brady, Ronald Jones II, and the entire receiving corps.
  3. No, Lamar Jackson hasn't developed a cannon for the perimeter passing game, but his anticipation and a healthy Marquise Brown's route running is an important development.
  4. Worried about Nick Chubb losing projected touches to Kareem Hunt because of Week 1's box score? Don't. Chubb had a 2-to-1 advantage until the game was out of hand. Then again, it could be rough sledding for Chubb's September volume until the Browns bench Baker Mayfield or the third-year quarterback improves--and one of those is coming soon.
  5. Joe Burrow's debut underscores the essential value of pass protection and why it could be a long year for the rookie and his receiving corps.
  6. Josh Jacobs faced an overwhelmed Carolina defense, but don't discount his performance as an outlier, including his work in the receiving game.
  7. Seattle opened its passing offense against Atlanta, showing a lot of run-pass creativity that bodes well for Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Greg Olsen.
  8. Seahawks safety Jamaal Adams may not singlehandedly bring back the Legion of Boom, but his play was good enough to elevate this unit.
  9. Week 1 is always a notebook chock-full of items. I provide a list of brief insights about the following players
    • David Johnson performed and fits well with the Texans' scheme.
    • Parris Campbell is earning the Keenan Allen role for Indianapolis.
    • Raheem Mostert's receiving kept San Francisco in Week 1's game.
    • Malcolm Brown's quickness, patience, and power make him the lead back in the Rams committee, for now.
    • Rookie runner J.J. Taylor has long-term dynasty potential in the Patriots offense.
    • Jimmy Garoppolo lacks big-throw accuracy.
  10. This week's Fresh Fish:
    1. The right side of Atlanta's offensive line allowed unblocked blitzers in the pocket multiple times in Week 1.
    2. Philip Rivers' arm strength and short-circuits of decision-making acumen are legitimate concerns for the Colts.
    3. Mike Evans played hurt and despite a touchdown and two routes that earned defensive pass interference calls, his mistakes had a greater impact on the game.
    4. Baker Mayfield looks stale.
    5. Bengals offensive line is playing like five kitties.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. A Promising Debut for the 2020 Running Back Class

The wide receivers were the headliners of the 2020 NFL Draft class, but most who evaluate prospects would have told you that this year's offensive skill talent was strong and the running backs were a big part of it. For many, the best fit of player-to-scheme among the rookie runners was LSU's Clyde Edwards-Helaire to Kansas City's offense.

On Thursday night, Edwards-Helaire made a compelling case that it's an accurate assessment.

While the decision-making, burst, movement, and contact balance were all on display, it's essential for fantasy players to understand that Edwards-Helaire benefited from excellent line play. Coaches expect running backs to make unblocked linebackers and/or defensive backs miss in the open field when they get a clean hole through the line of scrimmage, and the Chiefs line dominated the Texans' front-seven that appeared to miss the presence of former teammate D.J. Reader.

When the offensive line is getting a push that collectively moves a defensive line 2-3 yards off the line of scrimmage, it's an easy night for a running back. Still, we shouldn't declare the player overrated for this reason. Part of good evaluation is knowing where to separate the player from the team effort.

One of the ways to do this is to analyze a player's game with criteria that values the player for doing work that gets him or his teammates in position to make positive plays. It doesn't matter as much if the outcome is positive or negative when you're using that perspective as your benchmark, and it's a good compass for evaluating individuals in a team sport.

One of the question marks that still lingers with Edwards-Helaire's game is short yardage. The Texans stuffed Edwards-Helaire multiple times on Thursday night, including attempts in the green zone (inside the opponent's five yard-line). If Edwards-Helaire's difficulties persist here, expect Andy Reid to look to Darrel Williams or even Darwin Thompson for these touches. Reid has used red-zone and green-zone specialists other than his starter in the past and both Williams and Thompson have proven skilled enough to do the work.

Even if Edwards-Helaire fails to prove himself a viable scoring option and loses the role as a rookie, the performance of the Chiefs' offensive line and the abundance of weapons allows Kansas City to spread the field and generate light boxes that play into Edwards-Helaire's wheelhouse as a runner. The key to Edwards-Helaire sustaining success will be the health of the offensive line and Patrick Mahomes II and game scripts that encourage rushing attempts.

If Edwards-Helaire earns the green zone touches, he has top-five fantasy upside at the position. If he earns red-zone looks but gives way to another back in the green zone, he has top-10 upside. And, if Reid substitutes Edwards-Helaire on most red-zone touches, expect the rookie to deliver mid-to-high-range fantasy RB2 production (top-15).

Edwards-Helaire's debut was the most exciting for those who scout the box scores, but several rookie runners flashed production potential this week. Chief among them is Colt Jonathan Taylor. While Sigmund Bloom will rightly tout the passing-game value of Nyheim Hines now that Marlon Mack will miss the season with an Achilles' tear, Taylor will be an equal-to-greater beneficiary of Mack's misfortune.

Taylor, like Melvin Gordon before him at Wisconsin, illustrated that he's also a reliable weapon in the check-down passing game, and Hines' role shouldn't dissuade you for one second about using Taylor.

Taylor is bigger, stronger, faster, and more capable of gaining tough yards than Edwards-Helaire, and he's now the between-the-tackles back behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. In a dynasty league where I drafted Patrick Mahomes II, Lamar Jackson, and Russell Wilson over the years, I stockpiled these options so I could bid my time to acquire a running back of my choice. Last week, I traded Wilson for Taylor (with picks involved, too).

Compared to Edwards-Helaire, Taylor has equal-to-greater upside this year and there's a compelling argument he's a superior dynasty prospect long-term.

Although he didn't inherit a situation as cushy as Edwards-Helaire and Taylor, J.K. Dobbins is pushing for consistent playing time in a Baltimore Ravens offense that is among the best rushing units in the NFL. Considering that Dobbins is making his move for playing time despite Mark Ingram's presence is one of many good arguments that he was among the 2-3 best running back prospects in his class.

On Sunday, Dobbins showed off his burst and finishing power behind an offensive line that afforded him similar luxuries as his Chiefs' counterpart.

Edwards-Helaire and Taylor are the priority targets for teams in need of a running back, but Dobbins might prove cheaper and have starter value by year's end. If Ingram gets hurt, all bets are off when it comes to forecasting which one of the three is the most productive for the rest of the year.

A back I did not think highly of in this class, who had an impressive debut in Week 1 was Jaguars James Robinson. The UDFA earned the starting job partially due to his performance during camp and injuries and illness striking the depth chart.

I profiled Robinson in my new Friday feature, "The Replacements," as an option to acquire and/or use immediately, and he did not disappoint with his low center of gravity and burst.

It also helps that he can catch the ball.

Robinson will need the Jaguars to surprise just enough as a team to deliver compelling game scripts for consistent fantasy production between the tackles, but he offers enough as a receiver that he gives you a puncher's chance at starter value in any given week.

My favorite sleeper among the running backs in this class was Joshua Kelley and the Chargers rookie did not disappoint against the Bengals. Kelley performed well enough to solidify a weekly role and if the oft-injured Justin Jackson can't return to form soon, Kelley will solidify the No.2 role in this Chargers' committee backfield by the end of the month.

If Austin Ekeler gets hurt, Kelley could deliver high-end fantasy RB value this year, which is something I would have only projected for him 2-3 years down the road when the Chargers initially drafted him.

I didn't watch D'Andre Swift this week but I saw Cam Akers. There were two positives from this game. One of them was the fact that Jared Goff told the broadcast crew that Akers has the best hands of any running back that he's ever worked with and that validates the underrated receiving skills that I raved about in the 2020 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.

The other positive is that Akers was a decisive runner against the Cowboys. This is a good cut to cram this wide zone play for a positive gain.

However, Akers has always leaned more towards decisive to the point of lacking patience with zone runs. As well as Malcolm Brown performed on Sunday night, Akers may draw the start again but look for a heavy dose of Brown for the next 3-5 weeks until Akers shows more patience and nuance with a staple of the Rams offense.

2. Don't Be a Brady Hater to Your Detriment

The Buccaneers offense had a disappointing debut against the division-rival Saints on Sunday afternoon, which included two Tom Brady interceptions. If that's all the context you have for what happened, then you're missing the important part of the story.

Tampa's offensive weapons need some tweaking to be on the same page with Brady but even if there are uneven moments that pop up during the next 4-6 weeks, you should not be dumping your investments in Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard, and Ronald Jones II. This is a dangerous unit with excellent schematic choices that is on the verge of putting it all together despite a lackluster debut.

The multiple tight-end sets are going to be awesome for Howard and Gronkowski in the red zone.

Brady's second interception was a bad throw, but his first was the product of a miscommunication on a route with Evans, who made multiple mistakes this week as a blocker, route runner, and pass catcher and still scored a touchdown and drew a pair of field-flipping defensive pass interference calls.

The fact that Evans was healthy enough to play is a promising sign that he should work through the injury and regain his form within a few years. As this offense tightens its communication, look for this high-flying unit to riddle the Panthers, Falcons, and lesser defensive units for massive fantasy production.

It's also worth noting that Ronald Jones II earned at least another week of starter volume. His box score wasn't compelling, but he ran hard and effectively as a short-yardage option and showed better quickness and cutback ability than Leonard Fournette.

While Fournette will become more decisive as he gets a better feel for the offense within the next 4-6 weeks, the difference in cutting ability is particularly important because Fournette doesn't make sharp cuts in the zone running game and this offense isn't strictly a gap scheme. It's still early enough that Fournette could come on strong within the next 3-4 weeks and overtake Jones, but he'll need to play great football to do it.

Jones left a bad impression in the minds of most fantasy players after his rookie year, but he has become a reliable runner with excellent physical skills even if he's not as creative as two-thirds of the starters in the league.

3. Lamar Jackson Is Making Strides in the Perimeter Passing Game...So Is Marquise Brown

Jackson's weakness when entering the NFL was his arm velocity. Power throws like the intermediate and deep out, comeback, and skinny post lacked the timing and accuracy for the pros. The Ravens asked Jackson to address some of these deficiencies during the offseason.

Although Jackson will never have the gun to make these throws in tight windows with power, he's leveraging his anticipation for success with these routes. It also helps that Marquise Brown is healthy and showing the change-of-direction skills that he had earlier in his college career.

And of course, there are some great wrinkles for the vertical game where Jackson and Brown can out-throw and outrun the coverage with touch-targets.

Jackson's pocket management, poise, and confidence to throw players open remains as good (if not better) as what he displayed when I scouted him at Louisville.

The Browns may not be elite competition, but Jackson and Brown's performances were notable in ways independent of the competition. Brown is in for an excellent year and don't expect a bunch of defenses to "figure out" Jackson.

4. The Nick Chubb-Kareem Hunt Balance and the Influence of Baker Mayfield's Stale Effort

I've been a vocal proponent that fantasy players drafting Chubb will not have to worry about Kareem Hunt's workload. The fact that Cleveland signed Hunt to a two-year extension in recent weeks generated additional concern that you don't sign a player like Hunt for that amount of time and money and significantly limit his play.

Throw in the fact that Hunt earned 17 touches to Chubb's 11 in Week 1 and those who picked Chubb are concerned. There's more to this story.

The box score data is misleading because at halftime, Chubb out-snapped Hunt 21-11. This was when the Browns were still in the game, only down 17-6 before the final Ravens drive of the half that made the contest 24-6.

But with the game out of hand by the middle of the third quarter, the Browns went into garbage-time mode and fed Hunt while keeping Chubb on the bench. This has nothing to do with Chubb's receiving game. The Browns' lead back averaged more yards after the catch from shallower depths of target than Hunt last year and he has proven his skills here.

The Browns didn't want to keep Chubb in the game during a blowout and Hunt is the two-minute back who will see the garbage-time opportunities. Both backs fumbled in the first half of this game and Hunt's came inside the one yard-line. Chubb's happened with the game already out of reach.

And both runners performed well when the Browns used its base offense early in the game.

The variable that could kill Chubb's value is Mayfield. The third-year quarterback's pocket management still lacks maturity, looking to retreat or flush and lacking the wherewithal to climb where his blockers still have leverage with their assignments.

Mayfield remains late with his throws and it costs him pinpoint accuracy. The fact that these are still issues and Kevin Stefanski's offense has Mayfield only working half of the field, is a worrisome sign that Mayfield has not developed his game enough to carry his weight in this offense.

And this doesn't broach his pre-snap skills to identify pressure packages like this fire zone blitz that led to an interception.

Look for Stefanski to give Mayfield 3-4 weeks to turn things around. If the Browns can win two of these games, Mayfield buys himself at least another 3-5 weeks. If Mayfield performs as poorly as Week 1—consistent with last year—the Browns will hand the job over to Case Keenum and will draft a quarterback in the 2021 class.

This means that Mayfield has another month to screw up and keep the Browns' offense off-track, which could temporarily deflate Chubb's (and increase Hunt's) snap-count. If Keenum plays as he's capable, Chubb's production will rebound and he'll likely out snap Hunt 2-to-1 as he did during the first half of the Ravens game.

Use that information accordingly.

5. Joe Burrow's Rookie Year Will Be Painful

Burrow may deliver greater production as the year progresses, but the Chargers' three-sack performance of the Bengals' new quarterback wasn't representative of the amount of pressure and pain inflicted on the rookie throughout the game. L.A. generated pressure snap after snap with only four pass rushers throughout the contest and this allowed its defensive backs the luxury to sit on routes and jump targets.

Burrow didn't play poorly; he didn't have enough time to fully evaluate his passing skills. He missed a couple of deep shots on one drive but it's most important that he didn't lose his poise despite his offensive line's struggles.

Without an offensive line, it doesn't matter whether Burrow can read the entire field or throw the ball accurately. The Chargers have excellent bookends at defensive end that many teams lack. Still, don't expect a season like Kyler Murray from Burrow because Zac Taylor's offense is dependent on a smaller number of alignments with a high rate of execution that this offensive line cannot deliver.

6. "It Was the Panthers," but It Was Still Josh Jacobs

Don't discount Jacobs' 139-yard, 3-touchdown debut against Carolina as likely a year-best effort against a poor defense. Jacobs earned 46 yards in the receiving game and did it with route running fundamentals that will earn him more touches.

Jacobs also displayed pass protection skills to build on, including this cut of a defensive end.

One of the best short-yardage runners in the NFL and behind an excellent run-blocking unit, expect Jacobs to deliver no worse than fantasy RB2 production on a weekly basis and RB1 upside while earning just enough time at the expense of third-down back Jalen Richard to remain a dangerous part of the passing game.

7. Has Brian Schottenheimer Given the Keys to the Offense to Russell Wilson? Fingers Crossed...

Known for shutting down the offense's passing game after building a lead, the much-maligned Schottenheimer has been the architect of one of the most efficient big-play passing attacks in football. With the green visor crew of media haranguing Schottenheimer to open up the offense, the Seahawks' Week 1 effort against the Falcons could be a sign that they're getting their wish.

Russell Wilson went 31-for-35 for 322 yards and 4 touchdowns and the Seahawks only ran the ball 20 times, despite having a 31-12 lead by the fourth quarter. While Atlanta's ability to make up ground with its passing attack could be a factor in Seattle's strategy, the offensive alignments for the Seahawks tell a potentially different story.

The addition of Greg Olsen gives Seattle far more flexibility to use 12, 11, and 10 personnel alignments (two tight ends, 1 tight end-3 receivers, and 4 receivers) that present mismatches to the defense without changing the existing personnel from play to play. As a result, the Seahawks generate confusion with looks that could be pass or run.

With all of these looks, the deep game remains as efficient as ever...

And, the Seahawks are capable of tossing in creative plays like the Triple Option that leverages the open-field skills of Wilson and Tyler Lockett.

This flexibility isn't present without a versatile tight end like Greg Olsen or a healthy Will Dissly--and even Dissly lacks the perimeter skills to open up the offense as well as Olsen at this point.

Speaking of Olsen, he got into the act with the red-zone scheme. This is something, I've been writing about for months and you should expect it to happen regularly in 2020.

If Seattle maintains anyting remotely like this run-to-pass ratio for the season, Russell Wilson will be fantasy QB1, Lockett and Metcalf will be 1,000-yard options with at least 7 scores, and Greg Olsen will approach double-digits as a touchdown maker.

8. Jamaal Adams May Not Singlehandedly Reprise the Legion of Boom, But the Effort Is Admirable

The former Jet safety had an excellent debut with the Seahawks in every facet of the game. He broke up a Julio Jones pass over the middle with a display of impeccable timing and then went to work in the run game and as a pass rusher.

He also had a terrific tackle to stop Calvin Ridley in the backfield where he had to navigate his way around both Falcons tight ends. I thought I posted it on Twitter, but can't find it. His playmaking ability in all phases of the game, elevates this Seattle unit and his IDP value.

9. Two-Minute Drill

Here are some quick-hitting thoughts from Week 1:

  • David Johnson performed and fits well with the Texans' scheme.
  • Parris Campbell is earning the Keenan Allen role for Indianapolis.
  • Raheem Mostert's receiving kept San Francisco in Week 1's game.
  • Malcolm Brown's quickness, patience, and power make him the lead back in the Rams committee, for now.
  • Rookie runner J.J. Taylor has long-term dynasty potential in the Patriots offense.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo lacks big-throw accuracy.

If the Texans can figure out a cohesive game plan, Johnson still has the skills to be a top-end fantasy producer. He showed it last Thursday in a scheme that has a base method of gap blocking fits well with Johnson's strengths.

Johnson's receiving skills also showed up when targeted.

Speaking of receiving skills, Raheem Mostert has clearly expanded his game. Two of his routes were enough to keep the 49ers in Week 1's contest.

While Jerick McKinnon was a more-targeted back for the offense, Mostert was the most productive and ran the routes of greatest difficulty.

For the rest, you can follow me on Twitter at the handle you see dozens of times above.

10. Fresh Fish: Week 1

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd loving nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: The right side of Atlanta's offensive line.

Watch Jamaal Adams work above and you'll get a taste of the errors this unit made that left defenders unblocked multiple times during this game.

  1. Philip Rivers: His arm strength and short-circuits of decision-making acumen are legitimate concerns for the Colts. He should have thrown three interceptions in this game and all of them were products of either staring down receivers, misjudging coverage, or lacking velocity to complete the target.
  2. Mike Evans: Dealing with a leg injury, Evans wasn't in top form despite a touchdown and two routes that earned defensive pass interference calls, his mistakes had a greater impact on the game, including the route mix-up shown earlier that lead to a first-half interception.
  3. Baker Mayfield: I repeat, he looks stale.
  4. Bengals Offensive Line: The unit is playing like five kitties. Cleveland's front should have success against them.

Thanks again for all of your feedback with this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags Analysis Cam Akers Keenan Allen Mark Andrews Tom Brady Malcolm Brown Marquise Brown Joe Burrow Calais Campbell Parris Campbell Chris Carson Nick Chubb Will Dissly J.K. Dobbins Jack Doyle Clyde Edwards-Helaire Austin Ekeler Mike Evans Leonard Fournette Jimmy Garoppolo Chris Godwin Jared Goff Melvin Gordon III Rob Gronkowski Nyheim Hines O.J. Howard Kareem Hunt Mark Ingram II Justin Jackson Lamar Jackson Josh Jacobs David Johnson Julio Jones Ronald Jones II Case Keenum Joshua Kelley Tyler Lockett Marlon Mack Patrick Mahomes II Baker Mayfield Jerick McKinnon Raheem Mostert Kyler Murray DJ Reader Jalen Richard Calvin Ridley James Robinson Joe Schobert Jonathan Taylor Darwin Thompson Darrel Williams Russell Wilson

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