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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.

Updated Sunday, November 8th @ 8:30 AM

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks: There is an argument to be made this week to save salary at the quarterback position by slotting in Jake Luton, a 6th-round pick out of Oregon State from this year's draft, against the Texans' 28th-ranked DVOA defense, but it's a risky proposition to recommend starting a quarterback without a single NFL snap (including pre-season). Instead, you are advised to spend up at the position and choose between either Deshaun Watson ($7.1K) or Josh Allen ($7.0K). Watson is white-hot of late, posting 300+ passing yards in every game over the past month and adding 25+ rushing yards in his last 3 games. He will face a Jaguars defense ranked dead-last in DVOA against the pass and one that is allowing the third-most points to quarterbacks (23.2 DK points per game). As an alternative to Watson, Josh Allen makes sense against the Seahawks, whose combination of plus offense and poor defense have resulted them allowing more fantasy production to quarterbacks than any team in the league (27.0 DK points per game). Allen is coming off a modest game against the Pats, where he threw for only ~ 150 yards and his only touchdown was via his legs. We should expect Russell Wilson's offense to drive the pace of this game and Allen to benefit--he is averaging 25.1 DK points per game against better defenses than he will face on Sunday.

Running Backs: Coming off a slate-breaking 51.6-DK point performance last Sunday against the Packers, Dalvin Cook is the class of his position this weekend versus the Lions, whose defense trails only the aforementioned Packers in points allowed to opposing running backs. We know that Mike Zimmer is going to cram the ball down Detroit's figurative throat, as the Vikings run the ball at the third-highest rate (49.6%) in the league, which brightens Cook's prospects even further. After Cook, both Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery are interesting options in the $6K salary range. Jacobs is the easier sell coming off a 31-carry game against the Browns; the voluminous running back has collected 18 or more touches in all-but-one game this season and should get plenty of high-value redzone looks in a game that is projected to shoot out in southern California. With only one score across the past month, David Montgomery is arguably a tougher trigger to pull, but he also has enjoyed considerable volume since Tarik Cohen tore his ACL back in Week #3. Over the past month, DMont is averaging 20 touches per game and has quietly collected 18 receptions over that same period; his bell-cow role is expanding, but his salary is still modest for the time being. Take advantage now. Lastly, DAndre Swift gets consideration against the Vikings because of his emerging RB1 role and reasonable salary. Swift's snap count continues to rise (38% to 45% to 62%) over the past three weeks and he seems to be cementing a role as RB1 in the Lions offense; at $5.0K, his salary is reasonable for his expected role and he should be expected bounce-back from last week's tough matchup against the top-ranked Indy rush defense (DVOA metric).

Wide Receivers: Without Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones collected 30 catches for 378 yards and 2 touchdowns across 3 games in 2019. With Ridley expected to miss this weekend's game with a foot injury, Jones is priced too cheaply for his implied scoring floor and should be one of the first players rostered in your cash game lineups. After Jones, both Keenan Allen and Tyler Lockett merit consideration because of their consistent output and volume-heavy roles in their respective offenses. Between them, they are averaging nearly 20 targets and over 40 DK points per game this season. Allen has scored and/or surpassed 100 receiving yards in 4 of his previous 5 games and Lockett is the most relevant Seahawk receiver this week because he will avoid the shutdown coverage of TreDavious White while running from the slot. Just below those two, Terry McLaurin is entering "matchup-proof" territory, as he seems to find a way to deliver despite consistently poor quarterback play. McLaurin has 7 or more catches and/or 80+ receiving yards in all-but-one game since Week #2; he is easily the focal point of the Football Team's offense and can easily blow past James Bradberry's (4.50-second 40-yard dash) so-called "shadow" coverage. Lastly, Jerry Jeudy is your salary-saver at the wide receiver position. The Broncos' first pick from this year's draft seems to be building a rapport with Drew Lock of late and gets a tasty matchup against the Falcons, who allow the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers; as moderate four-point underdogs, the Broncos could be asked to throw quite a bit in this one, which supports the case for Denver's clear WR1. SUNDAY AM UPDATE: You can probably consider the Colts' Marcus Johnson as a cash game salary-saver against the Ravens today. While Baltimore is a tough matchup, T.Y. Hilton is trending doubtful with a lingering groin injury, which should result in 6-8 targets for Marcus Johnson, whose $3K salary afford you to jam in those safer, more expensive names like Dalvin Cook and Julio Jones. Also, be aware that Keenan Allen was reportedly ill on Saturday and will need to clear a COVID test today before he can play against the Raiders. As of the time of this update, it is unclear if/when that will occur--with that game starting late in the afternoon and no clear pivots, you are advised to remove Allen from cash game consideration if we do not know his status before the early game lineup lock.

Tight Ends: If you have the excess salary, Darren Waller is a sharp play for both cash and tournament formats this weekend. Waller has nearly double the targets of any receiver on the Raiders and will avoid the Chargers' best coverage defenders on the perimeter. The Bolts have allowed a tight end to reach the endzone in five of their previous six games and only one of those tight ends was of Waller's ability (Travis Kelce). In the same game, however, you can save some salary and still feel somewhat confident of a decent scoring floor with Hunter Henry, who trails only Keenan Allen (75; 4th in NFL) on his team. Henry has been on a bit of dry spell with regards to scoring this year, having found the endzone only once in 29 receptions; over the course of his career, Henry has scored once in every 8 receptions. The volume is still there and his quarterback play is improved, so we should expect some positive scoring progression in the near-term.

Team Defenses: The Pittsburgh Steelers are the prime defense this week against the Cowboys and whomever they start at quarterback. However, DraftKings priced the Steelers up to an all-time high (for the position) of $4.9K, which takes them out of consideration for cash games. At half that price, you can nab either the Arizona Cardinals against Tua Tagovailoa or the Vikings against Chase Daniel. In Arizona, we have a defense that has collected seven or more points in three straight games and gets a matchup against a quarterback making his second NFL start; to be fair, Tagovailoa surprisingly won his debut against the Rams last week, but his role was minimized and the verdict is still out on whether he can make this Dolphins offense a contender. Going north to Minnesota, the Vikings are far from a good defense, but their lack of consistent output is baked into their $2.4K salary. Providing Matthew Stafford (COVID-19) does not start, the Vikings should be able to get after Chase Daniel for a few sacks and turnovers, enough to deliver 3x value on their modest salary. In both cases, you are saving salary with lesser defenses against unproven quarterbacks; at a position with high scoring volatility, it is the right move to enable you to spend your salary at other positions where the return on investment is much more likely.

TOURNAMENTS

Quarterbacks: In what has become his home in this space, Patrick Mahomes II is always in play for tournaments as evidenced by his 400+ passing yard and 5 touchdown performance last Sunday against the Jets. He can do it on any given Sunday, so get your exposure accordingly. After Mahomes, Kyler Murray has demonstrated upside of late, having posted 360+ passing yards and a rushing touchdown in 2 of his previous 3 contests. Murray's salary is substantial, but he has more rushing yards than Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, and Jonathan Taylor; only Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, and Todd Gurley have more rushing touchdowns than Murray. If Miami is able to score points with Tua Tagovailoa under center, Murray's upside is as high as any quarterback on the slate. In Los Angeles, Justin Herbert merits consideration against the Raiders' 27th-ranked DVOA pass defense. Herbert has done everything possible to disprove naysayers who scoffed at his draft spot (sixth) in this year's NFL draft; in his 6 games as a starter, Herbert has collected 260+ yards in every game and has thrown for 15 passes (versus only 5 interceptions). Elsewhere, Matt Ryan seems to be going overlooked at home against the Broncos. He is projected to be on less than 5% of rosters and has demonstrated 30+ point upside on multiple occasions this season; with Calvin Ridley expected to miss this game, his stacking options (Julio Jones and Hayden Hurst) become more clear to boot. Lastly, in the "I hate to do it" category, Daniel Jones popped as a possible GPP selection in my model this week. Luckily, he is projected to be on ~ 1% of rosters, so we need only 3-5% exposure to go overweight on him against the Football Team; if it's possible to talk you into him, it will be based on his more recent games that saw him throw for a pair of touchdowns in each while also running for 70+ yards in 2 of his previous 3 contests.

• Sleeper: It is difficult to know what we are going to see with Jake Luton on Sunday against the Texans, but we do know that he is dirt-cheap and likely to be on few rosters due to the aforementioned lack of name recognition. Without any preseason games from which to gauge his fit for the NFL, we can only rely on draft grades, most of which seem to describe him in a vanilla fashion--not bad, not great. Nevertheless, offer up a sub-$5K quarterback and he immediately becomes attractive (exception: Ben DiNucci and Cooper Rush). As a seven-point home underdog, we will definitely get a solid look at Luton's abilities against the Texans' 28th-ranked DVOA defense. Expect to see a heavy dose of James Robinson for as long as the game is close, but Luton is going to throw the ball 30+ times, which should create plenty of opportunity for him to deliver 4x value on his salary at contrarian percent-rostered numbers; of his possible stack options, Lav
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  Tags Daily FF DraftKings Jordan Akins Josh Allen Keenan Allen Kyle Allen Robbie Chosen James Bradberry Chase Claypool James Conner Dalvin Cook DeeJay Dallas Chase Daniel Stefon Diggs Chase Edmonds Ezekiel Elliott Darren Fells Nick Foles Kenny Golladay Jimmy Graham Derrick Henry Hunter Henry Justin Herbert Tyreek Hill T.Y. Hilton T.J. Hockenson DeAndre Hopkins Xavien Howard Hayden Hurst Justin Jackson Lamar Jackson Josh Jacobs Justin Jefferson Jerry Jeudy David Johnson Marcus Johnson Byron Jones Daniel Jones Julio Jones Marvin Jones Jr Alvin Kamara Travis Kelce Joshua Kelley Drew Lock Tyler Lockett Jake Luton Patrick Mahomes II Christian McCaffrey Terry McLaurin DK Metcalf Anthony Miller Joe Mixon David Montgomery Darnell Mooney David Moore DJ Moore Kyler Murray Calvin Ridley Allen Robinson II James Robinson Henry Ruggs III Cooper Rush Matt Ryan Laviska Shenault Jr Sterling Shepard Matthew Stafford D'Andre Swift Tua Tagovailoa Jonathan Taylor Adam Thielen Logan Thomas Darren Waller Deshaun Watson J.J. Watt Tre'Davious White Mike Williams Preston Williams Russell Wilson