For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
CASH GAMES
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| Cam Newton | DEN | $6,500 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | NYJ | $5,900 |
Quarterbacks: Having delivered 4 consecutive games above 25-DK points, Ryan Fitzpatrick is this week's cash game quarterback at only $5.9K against the Jets. The matchup is pristine against the league's 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense, one that allowed 380 passing yards just last Sunday to Kyler Murray. To help bolster his floor, Fitzmagic has been doing it on the ground (for a 37-year old quarterback)--he has rushed for an average of 26 yards this season and has a pair of rushing touchdowns to boot. And, if you are wondering, Fitzpatrick makes for a solid play in tournament formats, as well. If slotting Fitzpatrick into your cash games lineups feels, well, wrong, Cam Newton is the next man up at home against the Denver Broncos. Newton makes his return after a positive COVID test that unfortunately caused him to miss last week's showdown against the Chiefs. The matchup against the 10th-ranked Broncos DVOA defense appears to be suboptimal, but closer inspection shows that Denver has been allowed no less than 20 DK points to all quarterbacks they have faced this season. With an extra week of rest and a point to prove after an embarrassing loss to the Chiefs, look for Cam to steamroll the Broncos and easily collect the requisite 20-DK points he will need to justify his place in your cash game lineups.
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| Derrick Henry | HOU | $7,300 |
| Alexander Mattison | ATL | $7,200 |
| Mike Davis | CHI | $7,000 |
| David Montgomery | @CAR | $5,800 |
Running Backs: The cash game build this week will be salary-heavy at the running back position. There are three solid choices in the low-$7K range including Derrick Henry, Alexander Mattison, and Mike Davis. Of those options, Henry and Mattison top the list because of their teams' respective commitment to the run and defensive matchups. Henry is coming off what could be his lightest workload of the season ("only" 20 touches) and gets a Texans defense that has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 60% of their games thus far. Mattison, filling in for Dalvin Cook (groin), is arguably the best running back on 75% of NFL rosters and will get a full bevy of snaps against the Falcons, who are allowing an average of 30.0-DK points per game to his position to this point in the season. Mike Davis is a tertiary option against the Bears and should be considered given his substantial role in the passing game (30 receptions in the past month). Across from Davis (and $1.2K cheaper) is David Montgomery, whose role was enhanced when Tarik Cohen was lost for the season with an ACL injury. Since Cohen went down, DMont has collected 10 receptions across a pair of games; as a reference point, Montgomery had 25 receptions in the entire year of 2019. The matchup against Carolina's sieve of a defense is stellar--no team in the league has allowed more fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Panthers.
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| Adam Thielen | ATL | $7,300 |
| Kenny Golladay | @JAX | $6,200 |
| Terry McLaurin | @NYG | $5,700 |
| A.J. Brown | HOU | $5,600 |
| Jeff Smith | @MIA | $3,000 |
Wide Receivers: Because you will be likely "spending up" at running back, you will need to find salary savings at other positions. Unfortunately, value is tough to come by this week with limited unexpected injuries and/or COVID-related issues. Of the possibilities, Jeff Smith is intriguing in both cash and tournament formats against the Dolphins. Smith has run 95% and 99% of the Jets' offensive snaps since being activated from the IR in early October. He is coming off a disappointing 3/23/0 stat line against the Cardinals, but we would be remiss to ignore the fact that he has compiled 20 targets in 2 weeks and was the leading target receiver in Joe Flacco's season-debut as a starter last Sunday. At the other end of the spectrum, Adam Thielen is the chalk option you want at $7.3K. Thielen has eight or more targets in all-but-one game this season and double-digits targets across his last two games. He gets a home matchup against the league's 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense and is on the team with the highest implied team total on the Vegas boards (on the main slate). Elsewhere, a trio of solid cash game options reside in the ~ $6K area: Kenny Golladay, Terry McLaurin, and A.J. Brown. Golladay gets a soft matchup against the Jaguars, who yielded Brandin Cooks' breakout game (8/161/1) last weekend. McLaurin will have his hands full with coverage from James Bradberry, but McLaurin's speed and skillset will continue to make him relevant on a weekly basis, including this one where the Football Team has a legitimate chance for their first win since early September. Lastly, A.J. Brown looked excellent in his return against the Bills' stellar coverage team on Tuesday night. Brown finished with a 7/82/1 stat line and is going to present legitimate matchup issues for Houston's Bradley Roby, who is allowing a passer rating of 114 when targeted this season.
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| Zach Ertz | BAL | $5,000 |
| Irv Smith | ATL | $2,500 |
Tight Ends: As discussed in this week's edition of The Power Grid, the tight end position is an absolute wasteland for DFS purposes. George Kittle, Darren Waller, and Travis Kelce are all off the main slate and the most prominent names available are Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz. Of the pricey options, Ertz is the most likely to deliver 3x value on his salary. Ertz is coming off his worst game in over five years (1/6/0 on six targets), but could still land on 12-15% of tournament lineups, which is a testament to how barren the position is this weekend. On paper, the matchup against the Ravens is intimidating, but a closer look tells us that Baltimore has allowed four different tight ends to reach double-digit fantasy points this season and only one of those tight ends (Travis Kelce) is of a similar caliber to Zach Ertz, in terms of skill and usage. If you want to punt the position entirely (and you might), Irv Smith is worth consideration against the Falcons, who have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends this season. Coming into the season, Smith was the heir-apparent to Kyle Rudolph, but fell off fantasy radars when he collected two receptions across the first month of the season. He had a resurgence last week against the Seahawks when he finished with a 4/64/0 stat line and 31 routes run, a marked improvement over his previous 4 games. Our David Dodds has Smith currently projected to score 6.0 DK points, which is not quite the 3x multiplier you will need to justify his presence in your cash games lineups, but the opportunity cost is low and you should consider spending the savings at positions where the usage and floor are more certain.
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
| Dolphins | NYJ | $2,900 |
| Cincinnati | @IND | $2,100 |
Team Defenses: Continuing the theme from the previous sentence around opportunity cost and floor projections, the recommendation is to save salary at defense in your cash games this Sunday. Two admittedly "bad" defenses are recommended, but they both face quarterbacks with issues of their own. The Dolphins take on Joe Flacco and a gutted Jets offense that released their best player (LeVeon Bell) earlier this week. Flacco took 3 sacks and was the first quarterback this season unable to collect 200 passing yards against the Cardinals last Sunday. For their part, the Dolphins have posted 12.0-DK points in 2 of their previous 3 contests and 11 sacks across that period of time. Dropping down in salary, the Bengals are a punt option on the road against Philip Rivers' shadow of himself. The (massive) dropoff in Rivers' play was on full display last weekend against the Browns when he was unable to get anything going for four full quarters and threw a pair of interceptions (versus no touchdowns) in the process. The Bengals are no defensive juggernaut, but if they can get after (sack) Rivers a few times and collect a turnover or two, that will be all that they need to reach 3x value on their $2.1K salary.
TOURNAMENTS
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
| Aaron Rodgers | @TB | $7,500 | 4% |
| Matt Ryan | @MIN | $6,600 | 7% |
| Tom Brady | GB | $6,500 | 2% |
| Ryan Tannehill | HOU | $5,900 | 9% |
| Daniel Jones | WAS | $5,400 | 4% |
| Joe Flacco | @MIA | $5,100 | 1% |
| DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
| Joe Burrow | @IND | $5,400 | 1% |
| FADE: | |||
| Matthew Stafford | @JAX | $6,300 | 13% |
Quarterbacks: There is not much justification needed to nominate a pair of future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks in Vegas' highest-totaled game of the week for GPP consideration. Both Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady should be part of your tournament strategy on Sunday in a "Bay of Pigs" game that surprisingly has each of them projected to be on less than 5% of GPP rosters. Rodgers has been without his best weapon (Davante Adams) for several weeks and Brady has not had both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at 100% for most of the season; both situations will reverse on Sunday and few quarterbacks have as much upside as Rodgers and Brady as a result. In a similar theme to Brady, Matt Ryan gets both of his primary receivers at 100% for the first time in nearly a month and an implied gamescript that favors plenty of passing; earmark Ryan for 4-8% of your GPP portfolio and "run it back" with either Alexander Mattison or your favorite Viking on the same rosters. Elsewhere, Daniel Jones is a personal favorite tournament option against Washington on Sunday. Jones is coming off a disappointing performance against Dallas, a team that has been beaten by nearly every quarterback (save Jones) this season and recency bias will be in full effect as a result. Short memories win tournaments in DFS and Jones' projections merit consideration far above where we currently project his percent-rostered numbers. As for the matchup, Washington has allowed every opposing quarterback to score at least twice in every game this season and are allowing the fifth-most DK points per game to the position. Lastly, Joe Flacco is a deep flyer who can be paired with Jeff Smith for a total of $8.1K and run back with Myles Gasking for another $5.4K, which leaves nearly 80% of your salary to spend up on those expensive running backs in good spots.
- Sleeper: Coming off a 6.32-fantasy point stinker against the Ravens' stout defense, Joe Burrow is going overlooked this weekend in DFS circles. Prior to last Sunday's letdown, the rookie posted 3 consecutive 300-yard games and averaged 4x this week's salary across that span. The matchup against the Colts' stingy zone defense (1st DVOA against the pass) is certainly daunting, but the Colts secondary has yet to be tested by an above-average quarterback this season. With Tyler Boyd catapulting into the WR1 role and Tee Higgins impressing as a rookie, Burrow brings 4x upside to your roster at extremely low popularity.
- Fade: This week's darling at quarterback, Matthew Stafford has a plush matchup against the Jaguars' last-ranked DVOA pass defense. Jacksonville has allowed opposing passers to average nearly 23 DK points per game, which is nearly 4x Stafford's salary in Week #6. Despite the factors in his favor, the suggestion is to go light on Stafford with the understanding that the Lions could go run-heavy at some point in the game against the Jags who have allowed big games on the ground to Joe Mixon (45 DK points) and Nyheim Hines (27 DK points) thus far this season. Avoiding Stafford and the chalk-option, Kenny Golladay (see below), in tournaments will confer the type of roster uniqueness you will need to pull down a top 1% finish.
