For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
In the midst of writing this week's edition of Tips and Picks, we learned that Cam Newton will miss Sunday's game against the Chiefs due to a positive COVID test. Because this article requires a full day to compile/write, there are sections written before and after Saturday morning's announcement. As such, you will note some recommendations, including Cam himself, that are in strikethrough font while others are in the typical black font because that section was written after the announcement. I will do my best to update the article (with an indication of *when* the article was last updated) as we learn more. There is a strong chance, however, that this game is postponed, which would mean that anything written hereafter becomes irrelevant for tomorrow's DFS slate.
Update #1 (Saturday, 1 PM EST): The NE-KC game has officially been postponed and should not be considered for DFS purposes. Given the fantasy relevance of this game, there will be trickle-down effects across other players and player popularity in tournaments. Please check back this evening and tomorrow morning for my evolving thoughts on potential shifts in strategy, potential fades/sleepers, etc. Everything that is added will appear in this same red font and timestamped.
CASH GAMES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Cam Newton | @KC | $6,400 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | SEA | $5,400 |
Quarterbacks: Last Sunday, Cam Newton disappointed with a ~ 12-point performance against the Raiders when the Pats' ground game was the focus of the offense during a blowout win. It's probably safe to assume that the Patriots will be able to take their foot off the figurative gas pedal on Sunday against the league's most dynamic offense, the Kansas City Chiefs. Look for Newton to bounce back against the Chiefs, whose defense trails only San Francisco in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks (42.7 yards per game). Given the plus implied gamescript, a hefty Vegas game total of 53, and Newton's lowest price since opening weekend, he is a shoo-in for cash and tournament consideration. To save some salary on a week where value is not readily available, Ryan Fitzpatrick is an acceptable alternative for cash game. "Fitzmagic" has a plush matchup against the Seahawks, the league's second-friendliest defense to opposing quarterbacks. With All-Pro Safety Jamal Adams (groin) on the shelf and Russell Wilson still "cooking" the Seahawks offense, look for Fitzpatrick to deliver value in all DFS formats.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Alvin Kamara | @DET | $8,000 |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | NE | $6,400 |
Mike Davis | ARZ | $5,700 |
Ronald Jones II | LAC | $4,700 |
Running Backs: This week's TnP coverboy, Alvin Kamara is an excellent option for cash and GPP contests against a Lions defense that allowed Aaron Jones to score nearly 50 DK points in Week #2. Now that Michael Thomas (ankle) is confirmed 'out,' look for Kamara to again be heavily involved in all facets of the Saints offense; averaging nearly 5x his salary, Kamara is simply priced too low for his implied usage. In Kansas City, Clyde Edwards-Helaire gets the nod for both cash and tournament contests as a sizeable home-favorite with a commanding share of the backfield duties on a Patrick Mahomes II-led offense. Elsewhere, the Panthers are doing their best to impose the Christian McCaffrey role to Mike Davis, who has collected 16 targets in 5 quarters since CMC's late-game injury in Week #2. Davis is modestly priced ($5.7K) against the Cardinals and should see plenty of looks given Arizona's fast-paced spread attack and how it results in extra plays for opposing offenses. Lastly, do not sleep on Ronald Jones II taking on the Chargers. "RoJo" should have the Bucs backfield to himself with Leonard Fournette (ankle) sidelined; Jones will be spelled by LeSean McCoy on passing downs, but should accrue ~ 20 touches at $4.7K against a Chargers' front seven missing several key run-stoppers, including Melvin Ingram III (knee).
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Tyler Lockett | @MIA | $7,000 |
Keenan Allen | TB | $6,500 |
Julian Edelman | @KC | $5,700 |
D.J. Moore | ARZ | $5,600 |
NKeal Harry | @KC | $4,000 |
Wide Receivers: Featured in this same spot last week, Tyler Lockett likely led you to cash game wins if you slotted him into your lineups; Lockett trampled the Cowboys out of the slot, scoring thrice and collecting 40 DK points in the process. Lockett's salary jumped $600 this week, but he's still firmly in play in all formats due to his usage and personnel matchup where he will line up across from Jamal Perry, who has allowed 100% of passes thrown into his coverage to be caught this season. Playing similar target-heavy roles from the slot, Keenan Allen and Julian Edelman are worthy of cash game consideration on teams likely to be trailing. Allen is coming off a 19-target game from Justin Herbert and gets a pass-funnel Bucs defense while Edelman should bounce back against the Chiefs after a disappointing performance against the Raiders last week when passing was unnecessary in the second half. Elsewhere, D.J. Moore could go off as the most popular wide receiver on the board in Week #4 against the Cardinals due to a combination of price, hype, usage, and matchup; he is an excellent cash game option, but limit your GPP exposure to less than 20% of your overall portfolio. Lastly, as a cheap salary-saver, NKeal Harry is a reasonable selection against the Chiefs given the expected need to pass throughout this matchup (and, yes, you can have both recommended Patriots receivers in your cash game lineups, if your builds necessitate such a decision).
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Darren Waller | BUF | $5,200 |
Hunter Henry | @TB | $4,600 |
Tight Ends: For the second consecutive week, you are advised to spend up at the tight end position for cash games. Darren Waller is the glaringly obvious option in Las Vegas with Henry Ruggs (hamstring) and Bryan Edwards (ankle) both missing due to injuries. What remains are names like Hunter Renfrow and Nelson Agholor, both of whom are comparably priced, but not nearly as talented as Waller. Look for Waller to get peppered with targets across the middle while Buffalo's excellent perimeter cornerbacks lock down everything else in the passing game. In Tampa Bay, Hunter Henry should be the number-two receiver for Justin Herbert against a defense that funnels action to the pass due to their impenetrable defensive front. Henry has 10 or more DK points in every game this year and is destined for positive touchdown regression after averaging a score every 11 receptions through his first three years in the league while still scoreless after 23 catches this season.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Buccaneers | LAC | $3,400 |
Texans | @HOU | $2,500 |
Team Defenses: Posting double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back weeks, the Tampa Bay Bucs are this week's safest option for cash games and they come at a $300 discount from last Sunday. The Bucs are averaging four sacks per game and face a rookie quarterback in Justin Herbert, who has thrown a pick in each of his first two NFL starts. Alternatively, you can save some salary by rolling with the home team in Houston against the Vikings. The Texans defense has not bolstered confidence in fantasy production to date, but they have faced three of the league's best teams in the form of the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers; look for them to enjoy the reprieve at home against a much lesser Vikings offense this weekend.
TOURNAMENTS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Josh Allen | @LV | $7,300 | 6% |
Deshaun Watson | MIN | $6,600 | 8% |
Joe Burrow | JAX | $6,300 | 2% |
Matthew Stafford | NO | $5,900 | 2% |
Drew Brees | @DET | $5,800 | 6% |
Teddy Bridgewater | ARZ | $5,600 | 3% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Kirk Cousins | @HOU | $5,600 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Patrick Mahomes II | NE | $7,400 | 10% |
Quarterbacks: While this author is not ready to proclaim Josh Allen as an elite NFL quarterback just yet, the Bills have done a fantastic job building around his skillset and minimizing his deficiencies. Allen trails only Russell Wilson in fantasy points per game this season and his stats since this time last year are downright ridiculous. Look for Allen's price point to scare DFS players away, particularly when they can have the name-brand Patrick Mahomes II for $100 more, but Allen is equipped with weaponry and an offensive scheme that make him a weekly consideration for tournaments. With their best two defensive backs, Janoris Jenkins (shoulder) and Marshon Lattimore (hamstring), slated to be watching from the sidelines, the Saints could have their hands full with Matthew Stafford and company in Detroit. Stafford should be able to slice through the Saints' tertiary defensive backs and post sizeable numbers, particularly if Drew Brees can get his offense going, which Vegas expects to happen. Stafford will be an excellent contrarian option on less than 5% of rosters and Brees at only a tick above that threshold. In Cincinnati, Joe Burrow should be in serious consideration for tournaments after watching the Jags get throttled by the likes of Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill, and Ryan Fitzpatrick through their first three games. Jacksonville is allowing an embarrassing 80% conversion rate and they have yet to face an elite NFL quarterback; while Burrow may not yet fit into that category himself, he certainly has demonstrated an ability to post GPP-like numbers (300+ yards in his first 2 NFL games) while benefitting from the ineptitude of his own defense that has allowed opposing offenses to keep him active for 60 full minutes.
- Sleeper: We know that the Vikings are a run-first offense with Dalvin Cook, but this recommendation is based on the possibility that the Texans jump to an early lead and force Mike Zimmer's hand to throw the ball in a game that Vegas projects as high-scoring (54 point total). At present, Kirk Cousins is likely to be found on a fraction of tournament lineups despite hitting 4x value on this week's salary in two of his first three games. Stacking Cousins with either Adam Thielen or Justin Jefferson, fresh off a 175-yard breakout performance, is attractive because they represent nearly 80% of the marketshare of targets amongst Vikings receivers. Lastly, if Dalvin Cook exposures trend upwards through Sunday morning (a real possibility), Cousins represents an excellent leverage play against the ~ 15-20% of rosters that will contain Cook's name.
- Fade: It's always tough to recommend fading a player who is the best at his position, but that is where we are landing this week with Patrick Mahomes II. The Pats' best chance of winning this game is to keep Mahomes off the field for as long as possib
Photos provided by Imagn ImagesTags Daily FF DraftKings Jamal Adams Nelson Agholor Josh Allen Keenan Allen Saquon Barkley Odell Beckham Jr Tom Brady Teddy Bridgewater Joe Burrow D.J. Chark Jr Dalvin Cook Jared Cook Amari Cooper Kirk Cousins Mike Davis Bryan Edwards Clyde Edwards-Helaire Austin Ekeler Mike Evans Ryan Fitzpatrick Nick Foles Leonard Fournette Mike Gesicki Chris Godwin Kenny Golladay Rob Gronkowski N'Keal Harry Dwayne Haskins Casey Hayward Darrell Henderson Jr. Hunter Henry Justin Herbert Tyreek Hill T.J. Hockenson Kareem Hunt Melvin Ingram III Josh Jacobs Justin Jefferson Janoris Jenkins David Johnson Duke Johnson Jr Aaron Jones Daniel Jones Ronald Jones II Alvin Kamara Travis Kelce Marshon Lattimore Tyler Lockett Patrick Mahomes II Baker Mayfield Christian McCaffrey Terry McLaurin Joe Mixon DJ Moore Zack Moss Cam Newton Adrian Peterson Jalen Ramsey Hunter Renfrow Allen Robinson II James Robinson Henry Ruggs III Emmanuel Sanders Devin Singletary Darius Slayton Matthew Stafford Ryan Tannehill Adam Thielen Logan Thomas Michael Thomas Adam Trautman Darren Waller Denzel Ward Deshaun Watson Russell Wilson