The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Overlap
Team #1: 136.52 points, 19/40, DID cash
- QB: Patrick Mahomes II
- RB: Austin Ekeler
- RB: David Johnson
- WR: Calvin Ridley
- WR: Tee Higgins
- WR: Laviska Shenault
- TE: Donald Parham
- FLEX: Melvin Gordon
- D/ST: Houston Texans
Team #2: 122.58 points, 27/50, did NOT cash
- QB: Jalen Hurts
- RB: Austin Ekeler
- RB: David Montgomery
- WR: Calvin Ridley
- WR: Tee Higgins
- WR: Cam Sims
- TE: Donald Parham
- FLEX: Melvin Gordon
- D/ST: Houston Texans
The analysis below in italics is from last week's iteration of The Sharp Report, used to project Austin Ekeler as a sharp play on the Week 16 slate of games.
This weekend, the Los Angeles Chargers' offense will be without at least one, and possibly both, of its top receiving threats in their game against the Denver Broncos. Hunter Henry landed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list on Thursday afternoon, and will miss Sunday's game, while Keenan Allen, who played just 26 snaps last Thursday, is questionable once again this week. Without Henry, Austin Ekeler, one of the league's best receiving backs, projects to command higher volume through the air, giving him an unmatched receiving floor for running backs on the main slate of games here in Week 16. Expect Ekeler to clear 20 DraftKings points with relative ease, especially if Keenan Allen is unable to go, as Ekeler's target share within this offense will grow even larger in that case. Confidently build lineups around Los Angeles' stud number-one running back in all formats of DFS contests this weekend, as the position lacks the top-end plays that sharps typically zero-in on.
The analysis below in italics is from last week's iteration of The Sharp Report, used to project Austin Ekeler as a sharp play on the Week 16 slate of games.
Calvin Ridley is scorching hot in the recent weeks, rising to the occasion with Julio Jones sidelined. Ridley averages 12 targets per game over his last 3 outing, converting them into over 125 yards-per-game to go along with a score in 2 out of the 3. This weekend, Atlanta's passing volume should remain sky-high in a matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs' unmatched scoring attack. Last weekend, with an injured Drew Brees slinging the ball around, Emmanuel Sanders caught 4 passes for 76 yards against the Chiefs. One week earlier, Lynn Bowden, Mack Hollins, and Mike Gesicki all suprassed 65 receiving yards on Kansas City's secondary. Pass-catchers that can only imagine playing at Ridley's level in their wildest dreams have posted respectable stat-lines in high-volume receiving roles recently. Calvin Ridley is primed to torch the Chiefs this weekend thanks to the expected passing volume that comes with the territory as a 10.5-point underdog. At $8,500 the price is steep, but well worth the investment this weekend-- scour the bargain bin for salary-saving options to make Ridley fit into your lineups at all costs this weekend.
Tee Higgins' rookie campaign has been one of the most unheralded, yet impressive, seasons of any first-year player in the NFL this season. Higgins, a second-round pick from Clemson, was drafted in tandem with Joe Burrow in hopes that the pair could develop together into a lethal quarterback-wide receiver connection down the line. According to Pro Football Focus, Higgins was graded as the number-one draft-eligible wide receiver in all of college football last season; his talent is undeniable. Early in the year, Higgins' numbers were impressive, but most assumed his production would tail off after Burrow's season-ending knee injury. Surprisingly, Higgins remains one of the most-involved pass-catchers in Cincinnati's offense, regardless of who is under center for the team. Last weekend, with Higgins priced down at just $4,700 in an elite matchup against the Houston Texans' 30th-ranked defense in total DVOA allowed, he was the most popular salary-saving wide receiver on the slate. As expected, amid Cincinnati's miserable 2020 season, they were 7.5-point underdogs at the Houston Texans, which often leads to a pass-heavy offensive attack from the underdog. The increased expected volume through the air, coupled with pleasant conditions inside the dome of NRG Stadium, provided a considerable boost in projected production for the Bengals' entire offense. Tee Higgins stood out over his peers within this offense thanks to his consistent volume, abnormally low price, and extraordinary talent level. The rookie receiver made his way into 62.5-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings last week, and his backers were rewarded with a 21.90-point performance.
Melvin Gordon
Ahead of Denver's Week 16 battle with the Los Angeles Chargers, Phillip Lindsay landed on the injured reserve with a hip injury. With the Broncos' number-two running back sidelined for the remainder of the season, Melvin Gordon stood to benefit from an increased role in the team's offense. The stars aligned for Gordon's strong performance last week when his first game of an expected increase in playing time and rushing volume came against the Los Angeles Chargers' 28th-ranked defense in rushing DVOA allowed this season. Additionally, Gordon's price remained below $6,000 on DraftKings, which would typically lead one to believe he is in a timeshare backfield. However, with Lindsay out of the picture, Gordon was poised to handle the lion's share of Denver's work in the backfield, providing him plenty of opportunities to make good on his modest $5,700 price tag. Denver's prized offseason acquisition stood out above the rest of the field in the FootballGuys' consensus projections for Week 16; his h-value rating of 55.5 was over 10-percent higher than any other running back on the DraftKings main slate of games. Although the process behind selecting him was sound, when the dust settled, Gordon left his backers hungry for more, as he finished with 16 carries for 79 yards on the ground with no receiving production to complement it.
PROJECTED SHARP CORE
Projected Sharp Play #1: Malcolm Brown
As it stands, the Los Angeles Rams are likely to be without three or four of their top offensive producers against the Arizona Cardinals here in Week 17. Jared Goff's thumb surgery will sideline him this weekend, while Cooper Kupp landed on the COVID-19/Reserve list, with running backs Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson are also unlikely to play. Given this slew of injuries, Malcolm Brown is primed to step up as the team's bell-cow running back this weekend. Brown has yet to assume a bell-cow role at any point this season, but in the Rams' run-heavy offense, there should be more than enough volume available for him to reach value at his stunningly-low price of just $4,300. Brown's situation is the textbook situation that we have seen sharps target all season long: a bottom-dollar backup running back in a run-heavy offense assuming a bell-cow role due to injuries elsewhere. In this specific matchup, the Rams take on the up-tempo Arizona Cardinals this weekend, who have allowed at least 398 yards of total offense in 3 out of their last 4 outings and over 110 rushing yards in 5 out of 6. Even in the worst-case scenario, if Brown only receives approximately 50-percent of the total rushing volume in Los Angeles' rushing attack, that is more than enough for him to produce the requisite 12-15 DraftKings points needed for him to pay off his price tag. Anything beyond that floor of 50-percent of the Rams' rushing volume provides massive upside for Malcolm Brown to feature in winning lineups in not only cash games but GPPs as well.
UPDATE: Cam Akers is apparently expected to try to suit up for the Los Angeles Rams in their season finale. Given the remarkable value that has developed elsewhere at running back, if Akers were to take even 15-percent of the total touches in the backfield, he would severely impact Malcolm Brown's viability for cash games. Subsequently, Brown is no longer a feature of this weekend's Sharp Core.
Projected Sharp Play #2: Ty Montgomery
Instead of Malcolm Brown, turn to Ty Montgomery as the premier salary-saving option at running back this weekend. The entire New Orleans Saints' running back room, less Ty Montgomery, has made its way onto the COVID-19/reserve list due to either a positive test or close contact with someone who tested positive. Now, Montgomery is poised to make his first start of the year. The long time journeyman has only registered one carry this season, but he will be heavily relied upon Sunday afternoon against the Carolina Panthers in a must-win game for New Orleans if they have any hopes of securing the coveted number-one seed in the NFC. Although his rushing volume will pale in comparison to what either Alvin Kamara or Latavius Murray would have posted in this same situation, at the site-minimum price of just $4,000, it is tough to imagine a world in which Montgomery does not post a score high enough to keep teams ahead of the curve in cash-games. Fading such a strong bargain-bin option at the critical running back position could be a fatal flaw in the lineup-building process for cash-games in Week 17; if he records even a modest 15-point game, his near-4x value will be one of the strongest point-per-dollar performances on the slate. Lock him into your lineups this week, as most of the sharps are likely to do the same.
Projected Sharp Play #3: Kirk Cousins
The final projected Sharp Play of the 2020 season is Kirk Cousins at quarterback for $6,300 on DraftKings. Cousins and the Vikings will head to Detroit this weekend to take on the Lions in their season finale. Detroit is a team littered with players that have one eye on the offseason at this point; they have allowed at least 30 points to each of their last 5 opponents, including a trio of 40-point games within that span. Now, Kirk Cousins will lead Minnesota's explosive passing attack into battle inside the dome of Ford Field to match up against the league's 32nd-ranked pass defense, according to DVOA allowed. Additionally, Dalvin Cook, the team's high-volume bell-cow running back, will not be available for the team this weekend after a family emergency forced him to leave the team earlier this week. Without Cook on the field, the team will likely air the ball out more than they otherwise would have, increasing Cousins' floor and ceiling of production in this fantastic matchup. At his medial price of $6,300, Cousins is an elite option to quarterback all cash-game lineups in the final week of the 2020 regular season.
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