The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Overlap
Team #1: 152.82 points, DID cash
Team #2: 136.72 points, did NOT cash
Duke Johnson Jr | RB | $5,400
Following an underwhelming debut as the Houston Texans' starting running back, Duke Johnson Jr saw only a moderate price increase ahead of his second go-'round as the team's lead back. Johnson's strength as a pass-catcher, once again, provided a floor of production that warranted consideration in cash-games despite a brutal matchup against the New England Patriots. The Houston Texans entered their Week 11 clash with the underperforming Patriots as 2.5-point underdogs, leading to an expectedly-pass-heavy plan of attack for their offense. In his first outing as Houston's number-one running back, Duke Johnson Jr played an astounding 95-percent of Houston's offensive snaps. Given the Texans' lack of roster moves to add depth or talent to this unit ahead of last weekend's game, Duke was expected to shoulder a heavy load in the backfield once again. This season, Deshaun Watson has dumped the ball off to his running backs over five times per game. Given Duke Johnson Jr's near-monopoly on running back snaps and touches in David Johnson's absence, he jumped off the page as a premier mid-range running back option in Week 11, regardless of the quality of run defense opposite him.
The Sharp Core
All three players featured in The Sharp Core from last week's article appeared in at least 52-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings. Below, in italics, is the analysis used last week to project each player as a sharp play, accompanied by a summary of common trends and features of sharp decisions in cash-game contests.
Jakobi Meyers | WR | $4,900
- In New England's depleted receiving corps, Jakobi Meyers has emerged as the new alpha-dog through the air with Julian Edelman sidelined. Across the Patriots' last 3 games, Meyers has commanded approximately 42-percent of the total targets in New England's passing attack to go along with approximately 60-percent of the total air yards. No receiver in the NFL has cornered a larger or more valuable portion of his team's total pass attempts. Additionally, this weekend, the New England Patriots face off with the Houston Texans' dismal defense. On the year, the Texans rank 27th in the league in total DVOA allowed, and 22nd in passing DVOA allowed. Across his last three games, in which he faced significantly tougher competition, Meyers scored at least 13.8 DraftKings points in each game and averaged 20.52 points-per-game. This weekend, at just $4,900, Jakobi Meyers should be one of the most popular selections on the slate at wide receiver. Take advantage of his incredible opportunity rate within New England's passing attack and a soft matchup against the Houston Texans by locking him into cash lineups.
Features of a sharp selection at wide receiver:
- Underpriced player in a growing role within his offense
- Soft matchup against a susceptible secondary
- Playing in a dome
- Playing in a game with a high projected total
- Playing on an underdog offense projected to throw the ball in higher volume than normal
Dalvin Cook | RB | $9,000
- Atop the player pool this weekend, Dalvin Cook stands out as the number-one option to pay up for on the Week 11 main slate of games. Cook is the obvious focal point of Minnesota's attack, and the Vikings are committed to establishing the run at all costs. On Monday night, against one of the league's premier run defenses, Cook toted the football an astonishing 30 times. Minnesota rewarded their bell-cow back with a massive contract leading up to this season, and they are committed to milking every cent of value out of that contract. The Vikings enter this weekend's matchup against the dismal Dallas Cowboys as seven-point favorites with one of the highest implied team totals on the slate. The Cowboys field one of the league's poorest run defenses, as they rank 28th in the NFL in rushing DVOA allowed this season, and in a game that should lead to an even more run-heavy gameplan, Dalvin Cook is primed to feast. Lastly, this game is being played within the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium, which will shield Minnesota's offense from the elements and eliminate any volatility supplied by unpredictable weather conditions that have wreaked havoc on games across the league all season.
Features of a sharp selection at running back:
- Bell-cow running back that features heavily in both run and pass game
- On a favored team which typically leads to a run-heavy gameplan
- Facing a susceptible run defense-- oftentimes vulnerable units can be identified when a key contributor to the opponent's front-seven is inactive
- Do not overthink the quarterback position this weekend. The New Orleans Saints announced late in the week that Taysom Hill, not Jameis Winston, will start under center against the Atlanta Falcons this weekend. Taysom Hill, an unimpressive passer who is most dangerous on the ground, offers a rushing floor of production unlike what any other quarterback on the main slate of games does here in Week 11. The most enticing feature of Taysom Hill's resume this weekend is his price-- at just $4,800 he provides incredible salary relief to allow us to pay top-dollar for premium talent at skill positions. Hill will likely be the most popular quarterback option on the slate this weekend, and for good reason. New Orleans' 40-million-dollar utility man will finally have the opportunity to provide value commensurate for his pay grade when he leads the Saints offense into action on Sunday afternoon.
At quarterback, perhaps the most important and underrated feature of a sharp selection is:
- A dual-threat quarterback with both a rushing floor and ceiling to complement typical passing production
More obviously:
- Playing in a game with a high projected total, ideally in a close game to maximize shootout potential
- Going up against either a lackluster pass-rush or a weak secondary, both of which are underlying signals of a weak pass defense
The Sharp Core
Moving forward, The Sharp Report will feature a full Sharp Core, where instead of simply highlighting one or two of the best options, a core of three players will be analyzed to provide a strong foundation for a full cash lineup, rather than just a starting point. The initial Sharp Play will come on Wednesday, with the article's publishing, followed by another one added on Friday, with the final coming Saturday afternoon. This week, for the Thanksgiving slate of games (which has recently been changed to just a two-game slate,) there will be one stand-alone Sharp Play for that slate to go along with The Sharp Core for Sunday's main slate of games.
THANKSGIVING DAY SLATE SHARP PLAY: Brandin Cooks
The Houston Texans' receiving corps took a few hits last weekend when Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb both went down with injuries that could potentially sideline them for Houston's Thursday afternoon clash with the Detroit Lions. In their absence, Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller should be expected to absorb more targets than normal, especially on a short week without much practice time to work another receiver into the starting rotation alongside Deshaun Watson. In recent weeks, Brandin Cooks' receiving volume has been as stable as any player in the league, as he averages 8.67 targets-per-game over his last 6 games while commanding at least 8 targets in every game except 1. Now, in a soft matchup against the Detroit Lions, who rank 23rd in the NFL in passing DVOA allowed this season. In short, at the modest price of $5,300, Brandin Cooks is vastly underpriced on the Thanksgiving Day slate of games, and he is likely to feature in the majority of sharp cash lineups here.
Projected Sharp Play #1: Denzel Mims
In the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, the New York Jets opted to bolster their receiving corps with the selection of Denzel Mims. Mims, a former All-Big 12 wide receiver at Baylor, was sidelined with various nagging injuries throughout the early part of his rookie season, but since making his debut, he has been a focal point of this passing attack. Mims has registered at least seven targets in three out of his four games since being activated off of the injured reserve. Initially, Mims' sizable role in the Jets' passing game was presumed to be a function of injuries to other key contributors, like Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman. However, in recent weeks, with both Crowder and Perriman active and operating at full strength, Mims has played no less than 90-percent of snaps, and he has posted the two highest receiving totals of his brief career in his last two outings. Here in Week 12, the New York Jets check-in as 7.5-point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins, which should lead to a pass-heavy gameplan for Adam Gase's struggling offense. Despite a presumably tough matchup, locking Denzel Mims into lineups at $3,500 is too good of an opportunity to pass up. Mims, an obviously talented pass-catcher who rarely leaves the field, is likely the strongest value play of the slate this weekend, and he should be a staple of lineups across all formats and entry levels.
Projected Sharp Play #1: Keelan Cole
Keelan Cole replaces Denzel Mims as the first piece of The Sharp Core this weekend. At $3,600, just $100 more than Mims, he is the superior option in this price range, and rostering both players is likely unnecessary. Mims is still a viable option, but Cole is a much stronger play. The Jacksonville Jaguars' receiving room has been decimated by injuries this week. As it stands, each of their top three receivers are on the injury report and their status for Sunday's game is in question. In the case of DJ Chark, the team's number-one receiver, he has already been ruled out. Keelan Cole stands to be the primary beneficiary of these notable absences on the outside. Additionally, the team named Mike Glennon its starting quarterback this week. In normal circumstances, this would be bad news for the offense. However, in Jacksonville, where Jake Luton was their most recent starting quarterback, Glennon serves as a likely improvement under center. Overall, the salary-relief provided by Cole is unmatched on this slate. One of the most critical aspects of building a sharp lineup is identifying which bargain bin option is the optimal selection. In Week 12, Keelan Cole fits the bill and he should be a staple of sharp lineups across the industry.
Projected Sharp Play #2: Josh Allen
At the quarterback position, turn to Buffalo's blossoming third-year star signal-caller, Josh Allen. This weekend, Allen and the Bills play host to the Los Angeles Chargers in a matchup projected to total 52 points between the teams, the third-highest mark on the slate. This selection is less about Los Angeles' defense and more about Buffalo's offensive style. Buffalo runs one of the smartest offenses in the NFL and they make Josh Allen's life as an NFL quarterback much easier than most other teams do. The heavy utilization of play action and pre-snap motion manipulates defenses and maximizes offensive efficiency. Also, Buffalo makes the most of Josh Allen's rushing prowess, especially around the end zone. Allen has 5 rushing touchdowns through 10 games, and this rushing floor of production is especially tantalizing for cash-game lineups. Leading the offense with the second-highest team total on the slate, Josh Allen is the strongest option at quarterback position given his impressive efficiency through the air to go along with his rushing production that is a critical feature of a top-end fantasy quarterback.
THE SHARP CORE
- Keelan Cole - WR - $3,600
- Josh Allen - QB - $7,600
As always, feel free to reach out to me on twitter @StillZam with any questions or comments about this article or anything fantasy football! I will also be sending tweets whenever this article or any other piece I write here at FootballGuys is updated, so be sure to follow to keep tabs on when everything is added and finalized
