The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Overlap
TEAM #1: 112.26 points, DID cash
TEAM #2: 102.20 points, did NOT cash
Mike Davis & Duke Johnson Jr
Both Mike Davis and Duke Johnson Jr assumed starting roles in the absence of their team's respective starters. In Carolina, Christian McCaffrey sustained a shoulder injury late in his return to action last weekend against Kansas City. In Houston, David Johnson was forced out of last week's clash with the Jacksonville Jaguars due to a concussion. Neither player was able to suit up here in Week 10, providing massive value at the running back position. DraftKings posted pricing for this past weekend's slate before important injury news was made available, leaving both Mike Davis and Duke Johnson Jr crazily underpriced. Davis and Johnson have each proven to be well-rounded running backs when given playing time. Each player's receiving floor production was the proverbial cherry on top last weekend, as not much is needed from a running back as cheap as these two were.
Mike Davis played at least 70-percent of snaps in all 6 games that Christian McCaffrey missed with an ankle injury leading up to Week 10. Davis' role in Carolina's passing attack, where he averages nearly six targets-per-game, is a massive boost to his fantasy value. At the end of the day, at the lowest allowed price for a running back of $4,000, Mike Davis was one of the easiest plug-and-play cash-game selections in recent memory.
While facing off with his former team, Duke Johnson Jr was another exceptionally-popular selection at running back this past weekend. In Week 9, once Duke Johnson Jr filled in for David Johnson, Duke registered 20 total touches. Duke converted these 20 touches into 16.3 DraftKings points, and in Week 10, severe weather in Cleveland increased the expected rushing volume for Houston's offense. Given the expectation of potential rain, snow, and/or wind, the projected total in this matchup plummeted closer to kickoff, signaling an expected increase in rushing volume. At $5,000, Johnson's presumed bell-cow role was more than enough to cement his status as a cash-game cornerstone in Week 10.
At these bottom-dollar prices, securing significant passing-game work and the lion's share of available carries in Johnson's and Davis's respective offenses was a no-brainer for sharp NFL DFS players when building their cash-game lineups.
Why Mike Davis & Duke Johnson Jr?
- Value running back options stepping into the starting role for their respective teams.
- Both running backs were expected to continue to see significant volume in the passing game.
- The salary relief provided by rostering both value running backs allowed for the combination of top-end producers at quarterback, the third running back (flex) position, and wide receiver.
Aaron Jones
In Week 10, Aaron Jones and the Green Bay Packers were the fortunate beneficiaries of a soft matchup against Jacksonville's horrific defense. Jones opened the season as one of the NFL's best producers at the running back position, but recent nagging injuries have limited his production in the past few weeks. Jones missed Week 8 entirely and played a limited role in Week 9's Thursday night clash with the San Francisco 49ers. This moderate drop-off in production led to a slight price decrease, as he checked in at $7,100 against one of the league's worst run defenses. Fortunately, weeks removed from the hamstring injury that hampered him, Jones was fully prepared to resume his role atop the depth chart as the Packers' workhorse running back. Green Bay entered this matchup as stunning 13.5-point favorites over Jacksonville, which typically leads to an exceptionally run-heavy offensive approach. The stars aligned perfectly for Aaron Jones in Week 10 when he saw a drop in price on DraftKings with improving health against the league's 31st-ranked defense in DVOA allowed.
Why Aaron Jones?
- Top-end running back whose price decreased recently as a result of a hamstring injury that limited his playing time.
- Bell-cow running back on a team projected to win by nearly two touchdowns, leading to a drastic increase in projected rushing volume.
- Matched up against the league's 31st-ranked defense in total DVOA, the Packers were expected to light up the scoreboard, providing Jones with massive touchdown equity.
DeVante Parker
The following, in bold and italics is last week's analysis used to project DeVante Parker as the week's Sharp Play.
- DeVante Parker, after a tumultuous start to his NFL career, has emerged as one of the league's more talented pass-catchers since the start of last season. Now, with Tua Tagovailoa under-center for the Dolphins, Parker's ceiling of production is as high as it has ever been. Additionally, the expected absence of Preston Williams this weekend, who suffered a leg injury last week against the Cardinals, should increase Parker's receiving volume substantially. In a Week 11 matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers, the Dolphins are projected to score approximately 27 points on the afternoon. Parker, as Miami's number-one receiving option, stands to benefit the most from these lofty expectations. One of Parker's Week 11 resume's most enticing features is his modest $5,000 price tag. The Week 11 slate is primed to feature multiple viable salary-saving options across various positions. Locking Parker into lineups as a bargain-bin selection should put you ahead of the curve and afford the luxury of the possibility of multiple high-priced studs included in cash-game lineups as well.
Why DeVante Parker?
- Number-one receiver on an offense that just lost its second-best pass-catcher to injury.
- Playing on an expectedly-high scoring offense with a projected team total of over 27 points provided Parker, Miami's top receiver, with significant touchdown equity.
- At just $5,000 Parker was extremely affordable. Combining his expected volume and role in Miami's passing attack with this medial price was key to his fantasy viability.
The Sharp Core
This week, allow me to introduce The Sharp Core, where instead of simply highlighting one or two of the best options, a core of three players will be analyzed to provide a strong foundation for a full cash lineup, rather than just a starting point. The initial Sharp Play will come on Wednesday, with the article's publishing, followed by another one added on Thursday, with the final coming Friday afternoon.
PROJECTED SHARP PLAY 1: Jakobi Meyers
In New England's depleted receiving corps, Jakobi Meyers has emerged as the new alpha-dog through the air with Julian Edelman sidelined. Across the Patriots' last 3 games, Meyers has commanded approximately 42-percent of the total targets in New England's passing attack to go along with approximately 60-percent of the total air yards. No receiver in the NFL has cornered a larger or more valuable portion of his team's total pass attempts. Additionally, this weekend, the New England Patriots face off with the Houston Texans' dismal defense. On the year, the Texans rank 27th in the league in total DVOA allowed, and 22nd in passing DVOA allowed. Across his last three games, in which he faced significantly tougher competition, Meyers scored at least 13.8 DraftKings points in each game and averaged 20.52 points-per-game. This weekend, at just $4,900, Jakobi Meyers should be one of the most popular selections on the slate at wide receiver. Take advantage of his incredible opportunity rate within New England's passing attack and a soft matchup against the Houston Texans by locking him into cash lineups.
PROJECTED SHARP PLAY 2: Dalvin Cook
Atop the player pool this weekend, Dalvin Cook stands out as the number-one option to pay up for on the Week 11 main slate of games. Cook is the obvious focal point of Minnesota's attack, and the Vikings are committed to establishing the run at all costs. On Monday night, against one of the league's premier run defenses, Cook toted the football an astonishing 30 times. Minnesota rewarded their bell-cow back with a massive contract leading up to this season, and they are committed to milking every cent of value out of that contract. The Vikings enter this weekend's matchup against the dismal Dallas Cowboys as seven-point favorites with one of the highest implied team totals on the slate. The Cowboys field one of the league's poorest run defenses, as they rank 28th in the NFL in rushing DVOA allowed this season, and in a game that should lead to an even more run-heavy gameplan, Dalvin Cook is primed to feast. Lastly, this game is being played within the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium, which will shield Minnesota's offense from the elements and eliminate any volatility supplied by unpredictable weather conditions that have wreaked havoc on games across the league all season.
PROJECTED SHARP PLAY 3: Taysom Hill
Do not overthink the quarterback position this weekend. The New Orleans Saints announced late in the week that Taysom Hill, not Jameis Winston, will start under center against the Atlanta Falcons this weekend. Taysom Hill, an unimpressive passer who is most dangerous on the ground, offers a rushing floor of production unlike what any other quarterback on the main slate of games does here in Week 11. The most enticing feature of Taysom Hill's resume this weekend is his price-- at just $4,800 he provides incredible salary relief to allow us to pay top-dollar for premium talent at skill positions. Hill will likely be the most popular quarterback option on the slate this weekend, and for good reason. New Orleans' 40-million-dollar utility man will finally have the opportunity to provide value commensurate for his pay grade when he leads the Saints offense into action on Sunday afternoon.
THE SHARP CORE
- Jakobi Meyers - WR - $4,900
- Dalvin Cook - RB - $9,000
- Taysom Hill - QB - $4,800
As always, feel free to reach out to me on twitter @StillZam with any questions or comments about this article or anything fantasy football! I will also be sending tweets whenever this article or any other piece I write here at FootballGuys is updated, so be sure to follow to keep tabs on when everything is added and finalized
