The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Overlap
Team #1: 138.30 points, DID cash
Team #2: 151.30 points, DID cash
Josh Allen | $7,000 | 54-percent rostered
At quarterback, Josh Allen prevailed as the consensus QB1 for sharp NFL cash-game lineups in Week 10. Allen and the Bills played host to the Seattle Seahawks and their horrific secondary. Although other quarterbacks on the slate projected comparably to Allen, the ceiling associated with playing in a game projected to total approximately 55 points with significant shootout potential led to sharp players plugging the Bills' breakout star into their lineups. It is no secret that Seattle's pass defense this season is one to target in DFS. The Seahawks' defense currently ranks dead-last in passing yards allowed per game in the history of the NFL. Seattle's new pass-heavy and fast-paced offensive approach, coupled with the lack of talent on the back-end of their defense, affords opposing passing attack opportunities aplenty to gash them through the air. Additionally, in 2020, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have also turned to a notably pass-heavy offensive approach. Allen's projected passing volume this past weekend was as high as any quarterback in the NFL, making him the premier quarterback option for cash-game lineups on DraftKings. Lastly, Buffalo also uses Allen as a runner once the team nears the goal line. In 2020, Allen has four rushing scores in eight games-- the upside of rostering a high-volume passer with a bolstered ceiling of production via the run game was too much to turn down in cash-game lineups in Week 10, especially at just $7,000.
Why Josh Allen?
- Allen led a pass-heavy offensive attack into action against the worst pass defense in the history of the NFL in Week 10.
- At $7,000, Allen was a relative value play given his remarkable floor and ceiling of production in this elite matchup.
- Allen's potential rushing production offered additional upside found in very few other quarterback options on the slate.
Justin Jackson | $4,900 | 72-percent rostered
Justin Jackson was, by far, the most unfortunate sharp selection for NFL DFS cash games thus far this season. Jackson made his way into nearly three-quarters of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50, but in a twisted turn of fate, he tweaked his knee in pregame warmups and played just three snaps on the afternoon. However, we are not here to examine results, but rather the process that led to Jackson's inclusion in 72-percent of sharp NFL cash-game lineups. The Chargers' running back situation has been uncertain all season since Austin Ekeler went down with an injury. In recent weeks, Jackson's inclusion in the passing game created an appealing floor of production, as he posted at least 7.3 DraftKings points through the air in each of his last three outings. Also, in 2 of his last 3 games, Jackson recorded at least 15 carries, giving hope for significant rushing production to complement his more consistent receiving work. In a Week 10 clash with the Las Vegas Raiders, who field one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season, the Chargers were projected to score over 26 points, which also provided the team's number-one running back with significant touchdown equity. The primary appeal of Justin Jackson in Week 10 was his bottom-dollar price on a slate with multiple top-end targets at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. Jackson, priced at just $4,900, did not need a full workload to pay off his price tag. Although he had typically played a shade under 50-percent of the team's snaps in the games leading up to this one, Jackson's projected workload on the ground and through the air in an expectedly-high-scoring matchup made him the premier salary-saving option at running back last weekend. Lastly, Jackson checked in with the second-highest h-value rating of all running backs last weekend, according to the FootballGuys consensus projections, and he was, by far, the number-one point-per-dollar play on the slate here as well.
Why Justin Jackson?
- Jackson's consistent receiving production offered a considerable floor of production, despite his medial snap-share in the Chargers' backfield.
- An expectedly-high-scoring clash with the Las Vegas Raiders' dreadful defense increased Jackson's touchdown equity significantly.
- The FootballGuys consensus projections highlighted Jackson as an elite cash-game option, as he ranked second on the slate in h-value amongst running backs, and his point-per-dollar projection was head-and-shoulders above any other FLEX option.
Julio Jones | $7,200 | 94-percent rostered
Julio Jones was a near-unanimous selection for lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 last weekend against the Denver Broncos. One of the leading factors in Julio Jones' inclusion in approximately 94-percent of lineups entered in the sharpest NFL cash-game contests was the absence of Calvin Ridley. Ridley, Atlanta's emerging second-year star at wide receiver, missed this game due to a foot injury he suffered in Week 9. Jones was slated for a significant increase in production against the Broncos as a direct result of the absence of his number-one running mate. Typically, when a team's offense heavily features just a few consistent and notable producers at skill positions, the absence of one leads to a significant uptick in volume for the remaining feature-player(s). Jones averaged 9.66 targets-per-game across his last 3 outings, and without Ridley, Jones could have reasonably been expected to command double-digit targets on the afternoon against the Denver Broncos. Lastly, the Atlanta Falcons, who were playing at home in the friendly confines of Mercedes Benz Stadium, were projected to score over 27 points on the Broncos' defense, providing Julio Jones, much like Justin Jackson, with significant touchdown equity on the afternoon. Locking in the number-one wide receiver on the slate, according to the FootballGuys consensus projections, at $7,200, was a no-brainer in Week 10.
Why Julio Jones?
- Calvin Ridley's absence heavily favored Julio Jones. Without the team's only other high-volume producer, Jones' receiving volume was expected to increase significantly.
- The number-one wide receiver on the slate checking in for under $7,500 is a rarity. Locking Julio Jones into lineups at just $7,200 was an easy starting point at the wide receiver position.
- Jones and the Falcons, playing at home in a dome, were projected to score over 27 points on the Denver Broncos' defense, one of the highest team totals on the slate.
Tyler Lockett | $6,800 | 80-percent rostered
Tyler Lockett and the Seattle Seahawks' passing attack has been one of the most-dangerous units in the NFL this season. When adjusting for game-state (including variables such as time, score, and down/distance,) the Seattle Seahawks' offense is the most pass-heavy offense in the entire league. This season, both Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf have shattered expectations, stuffing the stat-sheet on a weekly basis. The difficult part, however, has been identifying which player is poised to erupt on any given week. In Week 10 cash-game lineups, Lockett was the favored receiving option from Seattle's offense, thanks to the $1,000 savings compared to Metcalf. As previously mentioned, this matchup against the Buffalo Bills was expected to be the highest-scoring affair on the slate, and targeting pieces of both offenses taking part in this potential shootout was a simple, yet sharp, approach to building cash-game lineups. In short, locking in a high-volume pass-catcher from the league's most pass-happy offense that was expected to light up the scoreboard was a sharp approach to building cash-game lineups in Week 10.
Why Tyler Lockett?
- As a top-end producer in the NFL's most pass-heavy offense, Lockett's receiving volume was astonishingly-high given his $6,800 price tag.
- In a game projected to tally nearly 55 points between the two teams, the potential for a shootout was significant. In this case, Seattle's passing attack would need to light up the scoreboard, directly benefiting Lockett.
- Lockett was selected over D.K. Metcalf, Seattle's other top receiving option, due to the stark contrast in DraftKings salaries. At a mark $1,000 below his running-mate, rostering Lockett, who projected comparably to Metcalf, was another simple, and sharp, decision.
- Lockett checked in 2nd on the slate in h-value at wide receiver, according to the FootballGuys consensus projections, behind only Julio Jones.
PROJECTED SHARP PLAY: DeVante Parker | $5,000
DeVante Parker, after a tumultuous start to his NFL career, has emerged as one of the league's more talented pass-catchers since the start of last season. Now, with Tua Tagovailoa under-center for the Dolphins, Parker's ceiling of production is as high as it has ever been. Additionally, the expected absence of Preston Williams this weekend, who suffered a leg injury last week against the Cardinals, should increase Parker's receiving volume substantially. In a Week 11 matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers, the Dolphins are projected to score approximately 27 points on the afternoon. Parker, as Miami's number-one receiving option, stands to benefit the most from these lofty expectations. One of Parker's Week 11 resume's most enticing features is his modest $5,000 price tag. The Week 11 slate is primed to feature multiple viable salary-saving options across various positions. Locking Parker into lineups as a bargain-bin selection should put you ahead of the curve and afford the luxury of the possibility of multiple high-priced studs included in cash-game lineups as well.
