The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Overlap
Team #1: 154.84 points, DID cash
Team #2: 112.46 points, did NOT cash
Jamaal Williams - $6,100 - 86-percent rostered
Once again, with Jamaal Williams filling in as Green Bay's starting running back with Aaron Jones sidelined, the majority of sharp NFL DFS players opted to build their cash-game lineups around the Packers' running back. In Week 8, facing off against a suspect Minnesota Vikings' defense, the Green Bay Packers were expected to light up the scoreboard. Green Bay entered the game as 6-point favorites in a matchup projected to total almost 50 points between the two teams. Running backs on offenses that are expected to win comfortably in games with high expected totals have been one of the go-to cash-game starting points all season for the sharpest NFL DFS players, and Week 8 was no different. Williams offered uncommon safety at his price point as well last weekend. The former-BYU Cougar played nearly 90-percent of Green Bay's offensive snaps against Houston in Week 7, when he tallied 19 carries and 5 receptions on 5 targets. His playing time in a backfield devoid of another reliable ball-carrier is secure, and role in both the running and passing game helped to provide an enticing floor of production for cash-game lineups when he matched up with the Minnesota Vikings.
Kareem Hunt - $6,900 - 88-percent rostered
The following, in bold and italics, is last week's analysis used to project Kareem Hunt as the Sharp Play of the week.
- This weekend, the Cleveland Browns play host to the Las Vegas Raiders who, thanks to a handful of offseason acquisitions, field a much-improved offense but a horrendous defense. The Raiders' defense ranks in the bottom three of the NFL in rushing DVOA allowed, passing DVOA allowed, and, unsurprisingly, total DVOA allowed. The Browns enter this game as moderate three-point favorites, which should afford Kareem Hunt increased opportunities on the ground. Kareem Hunt is playing the majority of snaps in non-blowout games while Nick Chubb is out with a knee injury, as he has played at least 70-percent of snaps in two out of the team's last three matchups. This weekend, Hunt, who is one of the league's most impressive ball-carriers, gets an exceptional matchup against a defense that has allowed at least 30 points in every game except one this season. At $6,900, Hunt tops the charts as the number-one FLEX play on the slate according to FootballGuys' h-value metric at the time of this article's publishing, and he should be the first player locked into cash-game lineups in Week 8.
Alvin Kamara - $8,200 - 58-percent rostered
At this point, this section of the Sharp Report writes itself. I sound like a broken record right now but, unsurprisingly, Alvin Kamara was the centerpiece of sharp NFL DFS cash-game lineups in Week 8. Last season, Christian McCaffrey was the weekly plug-and-play cash-game running back, thanks to his remarkable workload both on the ground and through the air. This year, without Michael Thomas available for the New Orleans Saints, Alvin Kamara has stepped up as the team's leading rusher and receiver. Perplexingly, despite Kamara's weekly inclusion in almost every cash-game lineup, his price has yet to increase dramatically, making him a relatively easy centerpiece for cash-game lineups. Additionally, FootballGuys' consensus projections highlight Alvin Kamara as the premier cash-game option on a weekly basis, as shown by his standing atop the h-value rankings almost every week. Given his talent level and workload, matchups have a marginal impact on Kamara's weekly projections. While incorporating the quality of defenses is a critical element of the decision-making process with most players, volume trumps all at the top-end. Players like Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, and Christian McCaffrey (when healthy) are perfect encapsulations of this dynamic. The moderate decrease in efficiency totals for these high-volume and high-efficiency players does not damage their fantasy value to the extent that a tough matchup would impact a mid-level talent. Until either (1) Michael Thomas returns to action and eats into Kamara's receiving volume or (2) Alvin Kamara's price increases significantly, he will continue to be a staple of sharp NFL cash-game lineups across the industry.
Kendrick Bourne - $3,500 - 34-percent rostered & Denzel Mims - $3,200 - 76-percent rostered
To help fit the top-end running back options on the slate, pair of uber-cheap wide receiver options made their way into the plurality of sharp NFL cash-game lineups in Week 8. Denzel Mims stood out as the obvious punt in New York while Kendrick Bourne unexpectedly crept up to 34-percent-rostered in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Mims was the more obvious of the two bargain bin wide receivers when breaking down the reasoning why he was viable for cash-games, both before and after-the-fact. New York's receiving corps has been decimated by injuries this season; both Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman were sidelined in Week 8, which pushed Denzel Mims to the top of the pecking order for the Jets. Mims topped the charts as the number-one point-per-dollar wide receiver on the slate, according to FootballGuys' consensus projections. Also, Mims was highlighted as a strong cash-game option for the week in John Lee's Tips and Picks article here at FootballGuys, where he narrows down the vast player pool to a small selection of only the strongest cash-game and tournament options each week.
On the other hand, Kendrick Bourne was a more nuanced cash-game option than Mims in Week 8. Bourne was not the projection darling that Mims was, and his volume was far less secure. However, the context of Kendrick Bourne's matchup with the Seattle Seahawks certainly made him a viable cash-game option. Right out of the gate, a matchup against Seattle's horrendous defense is worth targeting every week. The Seahawks' high-flying offense affords their opponents uncanny scoring opportunities. This season, offenses going up against the Seattle Seahawks' defense play at the fastest pace in the league, increasing the expected output of the San Francisco 49ers' offense dramatically. Injury analysis and the subsequent impact of notable absences unveil the value of Bourne against Seattle. San Francisco has been decimated by injuries this season, and they entered Week 8 without 2 of their top 3 running backs and their top wide receiver. The lack of a reliable ball-carrier increased the expected passing volume for the 49ers' offense. Additionally, the absence of Deebo Samuel forced Bourne onto the field when he otherwise would have been an afterthought. Overall, rostering a mid-3k wide receiver who is expected to see a substantial uptick in playing time on an offense that is also expected to increase its passing volume dramatically is a great spot to target a salary-saving wide receiver. While it may be difficult for standard projections to properly account for all of these nuanced factors favoring Kendrick Bourne, this situation is a great example of how fantasy football truly is a blend of art and science, not just one or the other.
Projected Sharp Play: Dalvin Cook - $8,200
This weekend, as a feature of the primetime slate, Alvin Kamara and the New Orleans Saints are missing from the main slate of games. His absence removes one previous cash-game free-space from the player pool. Expect the majority of sharp NFL DFS players to make the easy top-end pivot to Dalvin Cook atop the player pool at running back when the Vikings face off with the Detroit Lions. Cook, coming off a remarkable 50-point performance against the Green Bay Packers, stands out as the number-one running back on the slate. When healthy, Cook's volume in Minnesota's backfield is second-to-none. Cook has carried the football at least 22 times in 3 out of 4 games when he has been healthy enough to play over 70-percent of snaps this season. Last weekend, Cook tallied 30 carries and 2 receptions in Minnesota's upset of the Green Bay Packers. Now, as four-point favorites over the Detroit Lions, Cook's expected rushing volume is as high as ever. Additionally, given Minnesota's insistence on running the football at a nauseating level, Dalvin Cook's touchdown equity is higher than any other non-quarterback on the slate. Although he should not be expected to score nearly two touchdowns-per-game as the season wears on, his playing time and Minnesota's play-calling tendencies should allow him to stay atop the NFL leaderboards in total touchdowns this year. Do not overthink the starting point for NFL cash-game lineups this weekend; build around Dalvin Cook.
Projected Sharp Play 2: Sterling Shepard - $4,800
The Week 9 slate is loaded with top-end options worth paying up for at almost every position. Subsequently, finding the correct salary-saving options will likely be the most important aspect of cash-game lineups. The top sub-5k option on the slate is New York's Sterling Shepard. Since returning from injury 2 weeks ago, Shepard has hauled in 14 out of his 18 targets while posting over 16 points-per-game on DraftKings. This weekend, the Giants will be without Golden Tate who, while not a focal point of the team's aerial attack, certainly eats into Shepard's receiving volume because both play similar roles as primary slot receivers. Additionally, a relatively soft matchup against the Washington Football Team in a competitive NFC East clash should lead the Giants' offense to funnel the ball to their top play-makers, like Shepard. Overall, Shepard is one of the strongest salary-saving options on the slate, and he should feature heavily in sharp NFL DFS cash-game lineups this Sunday.
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @StillZam with any questions, comments, or concerns about this article -- or with any fantasy football questions you may have for this upcoming week!
