The Sharp Report: Week 5

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The Sharp Report

One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.

Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.

The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.

OVERLAP

Team #1: 152.90 points

DID cash

Team #2: 122.30 points

did NOT cash

Alvin Kamara | $8,000 | 95-percent-rostered in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings

Through the first three games of the 2020 NFL season, the fantasy value of Alvin Kamara's usage in New Orleans' offense was unmatched at the running back position. Inherently, in PPR scoring formats, targets are more valuable per-opportunity than carries. Now, with Michael Thomas sidelined indefinitely with an ankle injury, Kamara has taken over as the Saints' number-one receiving option, taking full advantage of the PPR scoring system in place on DraftKings. Through three games, Kamara averaged 20 scoring opportunities (targets + carries) per-game, which he converted into an average of 36.6 DraftKings-points-per-game. Here, in Week 4, New Orleans' star running back was primed for another big performance against a struggling Detroit Lions' defense. On the season, the Lions rank dead-last in the NFL in rushing DVOA allowed, which further increased the remarkable ceiling that Kamara, the number-one running back on the slate, possessed in Week 4. This expected boost in rushing efficiency against Detroit's horrid defensive front, coupled with an increase in expected rushing volume for New Orleans' offense as three-point favorites, helped Kamara standout as the optimal high-end option to build cash-game lineups last weekend. Furthermore, Kamara was highlighted as an elite cash-game option in John Lee's weekly Tips and Picks article here at FootballGuys, as well as the number-one running back in the FootballGuys consensus projections in terms of h-value. Even at the steep price of $8,000 on DraftKings, Alvin Kamara's unmatched efficiency with the ball in his hands paired with an exceptionally soft matchup made him the best option to pay-up for on the Week 4 main slate of games.

When the dust settled, Alvin Kamara finished the day with a respectable 20.9 DraftKings points on 20 touches against the Detroit Lions. Kamara was unable to reach his ceiling due to an unexpectedly large dose of Latavius Murray around the goal line, as the Saints' number-two running back finished the day with a pair of touchdowns himself.

Why Alvin Kamara?

• Kamara's unmatched receiving volume at the position provided an unmatched floor and ceiling of production. Without Michael Thomas in the lineup, there is no reason to believe anything will change on this front in Week 4.
• As three-point favorites, playing in a dome, the New Orleans Saints were expected to increase their rushing volume to help protect their lead. Playing in a dome typically leads to higher-scoring games overall, fostering fantasy-friendly conditions.
• The matchup against the Detroit Lions, who rank dead-last in the NFL in rushing DVOA allowed, should lead to a more efficient rushing performance for Kamara as well.
• Kamara was highlighted as a standout at the running back position last week both by John Lee's Tips and Picks article and the FootballGuys consensus projections. John's article and the site's projections have both proven to provide signal of sharp cash-game options throughout recent seasons.

Mike Davis | $5,700 | 72.5-percent-rostered in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings

Below, in bold and italics, is last week's analysis used to project Mike Davis as the Sharp Play for the week.

• In Week 2, Mike Davis’ first game starting in place of the injured Christian McCaffrey, Davis proved capable of handling the majority of the workload McCaffrey typically does in the Carolina backfield. Last weekend, Davis played 76-percent of Carolina’s offensive snaps and handled over 77-percent of the total touches in the backfield for the Panthers. It is evident that Joe Brady and Carolina’s offensive coaching staff have turned to Mike Davis as the bell-cow at the running back position while McCaffrey is sidelined, which bodes well for Davis’ future production projections. Additionally, Davis saw 9 targets in the passing game against the Chargers last week, catching 8 of them for 45 yards and a touchdown. Passing-game work is exceptionally valuable for running backs on DraftKings, given the full-point point-per-reception scoring system, and Davis’ workload through the air last weekend was bested by only Alvin Kamara at the running back position. This week, Mike Davis, who is priced at just $5,700 on DraftKings, has numerous paths to reaching 3x value by scoring nearly 18 DraftKings points. Should the Carolina Panthers find themselves trailing the Arizona Cardinals, as is expected by the betting markets, Davis’ role in Carolina’s passing game provides him a strong floor of production. If the game deviates from the expected game script and the Panthers get out to an early lead once again, a run-heavy offensive attack focused on running out the game clock would bolster Davis’ rushing volume. Overall, Mike Davis is the safest and strongest mid-range play on the Week 4 main slate of games on DraftKings, thanks to how secure his volume in Carolina’s offense is regardless of how the game plays out.

Below, in normal font, is additional analysis reviewing why Mike Davis was a remarkably popular option that nearly three-quarters of sharps in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 opted to include in their DraftKings cash-game lineups.

In last week's edition of The Sharp Report, when analyzing why Miles Sanders was remarkably popular in Week 3, I noted that the opportunity to roster a bell-cow running back at such an affordable price does not come around often. Still, when it does, we need to capitalize and lock those players into cash-game lineups. Low and behold, Mike Davis popped up on the very next slate and fit the bill. While Davis had only played 1.5 games for the Carolina Panthers, his playing time and involvement in the team's offense was extremely encouraging. Across approximately 6 quarters of football as the Panthers' number-one running back heading into Week 4, Davis accumulated 17 targets and 14 carries. Additionally, Davis played over 75-percent of the team's offensive snaps in Week 3, his first start for the team in Christian McCaffrey's absence. Shockingly, given the proof of a stable role and significant usage in Carolina's offense, Mike Davis' price remained relatively unchanged on DraftKings, as he reached just $5,700 on the Week 4 main slate of games. Davis' situation in Week 4 mirrored that of Miles Sanders' in Week 3 and made him the premier sub-6k option last weekend.

Mike Davis easily paid off his modest price tag in Week 4 with an impressive 22.1 DraftKings point performance in spite of an unexpected game script against the Cardinals.

Why Mike Davis?

• Given Mike Davis' playing time overall and role in Carolina's passing attack, specifically, he was effectively immune to a game-script-related drop-off in fantasy production.
• Only a moderate price adjustment following his strong Week 3 performance in his first game as a starter left Davis drastically underpriced at just $5,700.
• The Arizona Cardinals' offense typically leads to increased offensive volume for their opponents, which increased Davis' expected floor of production across the board last weekend.

D.J. Moore | $5,600 | 80-percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings

D.J. Moore made his way into the majority of cash lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 a week later than I initially expected. In Week 4, against the Arizona Cardinals, whose up-tempo offensive attack typically leads to opportunities for high-volume and high-scoring days for their opponents, D.J. Moore jumped off the page as a buy-low option on the DraftKings main slate of games. Following a disappointing Week 3 showing against the Los Angeles Chargers, D.J. Moore's price decreased from $6,100 in Week 3 down to $5,600 in Week 4. Across Moore's last 8 non-injury-shortened games (before his 4-target game against the Chargers,) he averaged over 10.8 targets-per-game, leading one to believe that this drop-off in receiving volume was a blip on the radar and not something worth sounding any alarms about. In addition to Moore's proven role in Carolina's offense, the Panthers entered last weekend's game as three-point underdogs against Arizona, which typically leads to a pass-heavy offensive attack for the underdog. Moore rarely leaves the field, as shown by the fact that he played at least 87-percent of Carolina's offensive snaps in each of the team's first 3 games this season. An uptick in expected passing volume against the league's 23rd-ranked defense in passing DVOA allowed made D.J. Moore a high-upside buy-low option on the Week 4 slate of games.

Ultimately, D.J. Moore came up short once again in Week 4, catching just 4 of his 6 targets for 49 yards and 8.9 DraftKings points on the day, but the process behind his selection across cash-game lineups was strong.

Why D.J. Moore?

• The price decrease following one down week for D.J. Moore, a player with an impressive track record of production dating back to last season, was likely an overreaction that created a great buy-low opportunity on an extremely talented player with a remarkable ceiling.
• D.J. Moore rarely leaves the field, playing at least 87-percent of Carolina's offense snaps in each of the team's first 3 games. In a matchup against an up-tempo offense like Arizona, Carolina's offensive volume and output was projected to increase and directly benefit Moore.
• One of the highest-ranked wide receivers in h-value rating on the slate, according to the FootballGuys consensus projections.

REVIEWING MY CASH LINEUP

My Team: 160.28 points

DID cash

COINCIDED WITH THE SHARP CHALK

Alvin Kamara, Mike Davis, and D.J. Moore

• All three of these players appeared in at least 72.5-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings last weekend. My reasoning for locking these players into my Week 4 cash lineup mirrors the analysis above in the Overlap section of this article.

Tyler Lockett | $7,000 | 47.5-percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings

• Tyler Lockett made his way into 47.5-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings in Week 4. Lockett and the Seattle Seahawks faced off with the Miami Dolphins last weekend, who rank 28th in the NFL in passing DVOA allowed. Lockett played at least 94-percent of Seattle's offensive snaps and registered at least 8 targets across each of his first 3 games. This level of involvement in Seattle's offense across both metrics bodes extremely well for the sustainability of his impressive early-season production in the Seahawks' pass-happy offensive attack. Overall, Lockett and his running mate on the outside, D.K. Metcalf, accounted for 52.5, 50, and 45.7-percent of the total targets in Seattle's passing attack across their first three games, respectively. This level of dominance in production compared to the ancillary pieces in Seattle's offense will repeatedly make both players viable cash-game options, especially when the projected team total for the Seahawks is north of 29 points, as it was in Week 4. In sum, locking a highly-involved pass-catcher on an offense that loves to air the ball out was a no-brainer for me last weekend, especially since the Seahawks were expected to score close to 30 points in a soft matchup against the Dolphins' porous secondary.

Adam Trautman | $2,500 | 67.5-percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings

• At just $2,500, the minimum price for a tight end on DraftKings, Adam Trautman was a viable cash-game option in Week 4 for the Saints. New Orleans' starting tight end, Jared Cook, missed the game due to an injury he sustained midway through the team's Week 3 game against the Green Bay Packers. In that Week 3 matchup, Adam Trautman stepped up as the team's short-term fill-in at tight end, playing 57-percent of the team's offensive snaps-- for comparison, Jared Cook played 34-percent of offensive snaps before he got injured-- and registered 2 targets on the night. All signs pointed towards Trautman stepping up as the team's starting tight end in Week 4, including some strong reviews from quarterback Drew Brees. In various interviews, Brees noted that Trautman was a reliable and improving player in practice and that the pair was quickly building chemistry and trust. Given his $2,500 price tag on DraftKings, Trautman did not need significant involvement in New Orleans' offense to reach value on the slate, and he became an increasingly-popular option due to the high-end players that stood out on the slate across a variety of positions. Ultimately, Trautman was an afterthought in the Saints' offense playing the third-most snaps of any tight end on the team's active roster-- or fourth-most, if you include Taysom Hill in this grouping-- as he failed to record a target on the day. Trautman was a "known unknown" on this slate, meaning it was known from the beginning that his role in this offense was unknown. His cash-game viability was rooted in speculation, but at $2,500, it was an acceptable selection that allowed me to fit top-end producers into my lineup elsewhere. Despite the results here, I would comfortably make this play again on a slate that lacked any other standouts at the tight end position.

Cowboys Exposure

• In Week 3, my critical error when building my cash-game lineup was that I overlooked the matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks. I had zero exposure to that matchup, which ended up being the highest-scoring game on the entire slate, leaving me in the dust behind lineups that prioritized getting exposure there. In Week 4, I made it a priority to gain exposure to Dallas' up-tempo and high-scoring offensive attack in a matchup against the Cleveland Browns that projected to total over 56 points, the highest total on the slate. Generally, the sharps agreed that this exposure should be a priority in cash games; how most of the sharps got that exposure, however, differed from my approach.

WENT AGAINST SHARP CHALK

Cowboys Exposure

• In Week 4, numerous quarterbacks were viable for cash-game lineups, although none jumped off the page above the rest. I opted to pay-up for Dak Prescott, whose early-season combination of passing volume and efficiency has him on pace to shatter numerous single-season passing records. While much of this volume has been a byproduct of game scripts that heavily favor the passing attack, Dallas' new analytically-driven offensive philosophy leads me to believe that the above-average passing volume will continue, even when Dallas is playing with a lead. Prescott was my preferred cash-game quarterback in Week 4 due to Dallas' remarkable 29.5 projected team total, in addition to a matchup against Cleveland's 20th-ranked defense in passing DVOA allowed.
• On the outside, Dak Prescott's number-one wide receiver, Amari Cooper, stood out as one of my favorite high-end pass-catchers on the main slate of games. Through three games, Cooper averaged 11.7 targets-per-game, commanding 24.5-percent of the total targets in the Cowboys' passing attack. Cooper's workload in this offense is as secure as it comes in the NFL this season, and he was one of the best wide receivers on the slate in h-value rating, according to FootballGuys consensus projections. After I decided that Dak Prescott was my quarterback-of-choice for the slate, rostering Amari Cooper at wide receiver was an easy decision.
• Ezekiel Elliott was an extremely popular selection at running back in Week 4, making his way into 62.5-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings. Elliott's selection was likely driven by his bell-cow role in the Cowboys' offense, paired with the expected rushing volume associated with the team entering the matchup as over three-point favorites. Elliott is also generally immune to negative game scripts; if the Cowboys fall behind, as they have throughout each of their first three games this season, Elliott's role in the team's passing attack provides a safe floor of production. Ultimately, I opted not to roster Elliott last weekend due to my decision to gain exposure to the Cowboys' offense through the passing attack, coupled with the viability of Ronald Jones II. I agree that Elliott was a strong play overall on the slate, and I considered rostering him when building my lineup, but I favored a lineup built around Dallas' passing game along with another value option at running back elsewhere over a lineup built around paying-up for two running backs on this slate.
• NOTE: Stacking a quarterback and wide receiver together in cash is a volatile strategy. Should the quarterback struggle to meet expectations, the wide receiver inherently struggles as well for the most part. This strategy leaves lineups heavily exposed to one specific situation by effectively "putting all of your eggs in one basket," and it is not advised for risk-averse players. In this case, the decision to stack Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper together was made with the understanding that my lineup was already behind the 8-ball if Prescott struggled, independent of Cooper's results. Additionally, the upside provided in the case of a high-volume passing performance from Dak Prescott, which directly correlates with an increase in expected production from Amari Cooper, raises the ceiling of this lineup dramatically and can help compensate for potential missteps elsewhere on the team.

Ronald Jones II | $4,700 | 22.5-percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings

• Ronald Jones II was featured in just 22.5-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings last weekend. At $4,700, his expected floor and ceiling of production made Jones another viable salary-saving option at running back, which enabled me to pay-up for Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without Leonard Fournette in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Chargers, which increased Jones' expected playing time and rushing volume. Aside from Jones, the only other notable running back in Tampa Bay's backfield is veteran LeSean McCoy, who had not played more-than 18-percent of the team's offensive snaps in either of their games since the season opener. As a seven-point favorites over the Chargers, the Buccaneers' rushing volume was expected to increase dramatically. Tampa Bay was projected to spread approximately 30 touches across their available running backs in this matchup. To expect Jones to absorb two-thirds of this volume was more than reasonable, given the apparent pecking order here. At $4,700, 20+ touches for Ronald Jones II was expected to be more than enough for him to reach value and provide close to 15 DraftKings points against the Chargers' defensive front that was missing Melvin Ingram III, a Pro Bowler in each of the last three seasons at defensive end. In sum, Ronald Jones II's expected volume in Week 4 far outpaced what would typically be expected from a player in his price-range, which made him a strong cash-game option on the slate.

PROJECTED SHARP PLAY: Robby Anderson

This weekend, Robby Anderson and the Carolina Panthers have the privilege of taking on the Atlanta Falcons and their horrendous secondary. Through 4 games this season, the Atlanta Falcons rank amongst the five-worst teams in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed (32nd,) passing yards allowed (31st,) net-yards-per-pass-attempt allowed (29th,) and passing DVOA allowed (31st.) It is no secret that this defense is one to target in DFS, especially through the air. Unfortunately for the Atlanta Falcons, their outlook defensively got even worse on Monday night, as they lost starting safety Damontae Kazee for the season to a torn achilles. This weekend, Robby Anderson is the preferred option to utilize in DFS to take advantage of this soft matchup. Through 4 weeks, Anderson has commanded 8.5 targets-per-game and 24.1-percent of the total targets in Carolina's offense. Anderson's role in Carolina's offense this season is drastically different from his role in the New York Jets' offense throughout his first two NFL seasons. In New York, Anderson was a low-volume deep-threat that rarely accumulated targets in bunches, but gaining large chunks of yardage regularly on his receptions. Throughout his first two NFL seasons, Anderson was targeted over 15.2 yards downfield, on average. This season, in Carolina, Anderson has been targeted 9.1 yards downfield, on average. This shorter depth of target makes his increased volume more sustainable in an offense quarterbacked by Teddy Bridgewater, a generally risk-averse quarterback who tends to favor short underneath passes. This change in utilization for Anderson has accompanied a remarkable increase in efficiency, as he has produced approximately 2.86 receiving-yards-per-route-run this year, the 4th-highest mark in the NFL amongst players with 10+ targets. This weekend, at $5,900, Robby Anderson is primed for another strong performance in his new role in Carolina's offense, which is projected to score over 28 points against one of the league's worst pass defenses.

As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @StillZam with any questions, comments, or concerns about this article -- or with any fantasy football questions you may have for this upcoming week!