The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Overlap
Team #1: 136.0 points, DID cash
Team #2: 121.5 points, did NOT cash
Kyler Murray made another appearance in the majority of sharp NFL cash game lineups in Week 3, finding his way into 82.5-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings. Murray led the Cardinals into battle against the Detroit Lions as 5.5-point favorites in a game projected to total approximately 55.5 points between the teams. Arizona’s implied team total of approximately 30.5 points was extremely enticing for cash games, as FootballGuys’ own John Lee noted in his Tips and Picks article. Be sure to check that piece out each week, which is typically posted on Friday afternoons, before building lineups on DraftKings for added insight regarding the sharpest plays in all formats. Last weekend, John noted that although quarterback is typically a position where saving salary (to an extent) is the preferred approach, high-end quarterbacks like Murray were the sharpest starting points for cash lineups. This proved to be true, as 33-out-of-40 players in the sharpest high-stakes cash game on DraftKings opted to spend-up and lock Kyler Murray into their lineups at the steep price of $6,800. Overall, Murray’s central role, both passing and now running the football, in Arizona’s high-octane offense had not been properly priced into his Week 3 pricetag in a seemingly soft matchup against Detroit’s defense that provided little resistance against Chicago and Green Bay through the air in Weeks 1 and 2.
Why Kyler Murray?
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As a dual-threat quarterback, Murray’s combination of rushing and passing production is rare, and, in this case, it was not properly accounted for in his DraftKings price.
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Quarterbacking an offense projected to score over 30 points, one of the highest team totals on the slate, Murray’s expected floor and ceiling of production were unmatched on this slate in his price range.
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Playing at home, in a dome, offenses in this matchup were protected from any potential adverse impacts of weather, fostering a fantasy-friendly environment.
Unfathomably, Miles Sanders’ price remained unchanged after making his 2020 debut in Week 2, compiling 21.1 DraftKings points on 23 touches (and 27 scoring opportunities.) At the modest price of just $6,400, Sanders was rostered by almost every single player in high-stakes cash games on DraftKings, ending up in 97.5-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50. Sanders immediately assumed a bell-cow role in Philadelphia’s backfield, both playing over 75-percent of snaps and tallying over 75-percent of the total touches in the backfield for the Eagles in Week 2. In Week 3, the Eagles entered the game as 5.5-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals, who were gashed on the ground in each of their first two games. Rostering Sanders in Week 3 was a no-brainer for cash-game lineups on DraftKings, as the opportunity to get a proven bell-cow running back in a favorable game script against a dismal run-defense in the mid-6k price range rarely presents itself. Ultimately, Sanders posted 14.7 DraftKings points on 22 touches, falling just 3 rushing yards short of the 100-yard bonus that would have turned this into a much more respectable 18-point performance. The process behind landing on Miles Sanders in cash-games is clear and sound-- should a similar opportunity present itself again down the line this season, do not hesitate to seize the opportunity to roster a proven player in a soft matchup at such an affordable price tag at the running back position.
Why Miles Sanders?
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No price adjustment following an impressive 2020 debut where Sanders proved to be the bell-cow running back in Philadelphia’s offense.
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Philadelphia entered this matchup as 5.5-point favorites, which typically leads to a run-heavy approach for the offense, increasing Sanders’ expected rushing volume.
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Soft matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals’ run defense that allowed an average of 177 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs through their first 2 games of the season.
On a slate that seemed devoid of strong salary-saving options, Devin Singletary emerged late in the week as the go-to option at the running back position for salary relief. In Week 2, Singletary was rostered by 55-percent of players in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings. Singletary stood out as the premier bargain-bin running back on the slate due to the news that Zack Moss, the other heavily-featured running back in Buffalo’s offense, would miss the team’s game against the Los Angeles Rams. Through 2 games, Moss played approximately 45.5-percent of Buffalo’s offensive snaps, which significantly limited Singletary’s playing time. Without Moss in the picture, Singletary was poised to take over as Buffalo’s clear-cut number-one running back and approach bell-cow status. Although the matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, who field an impressive front-seven headlined by Aaron Donald, was expected to be difficult for Buffalo’s rushing attack, Singletary’s expected volume on the ground and through the air made him a viable option for cash-game lineups. Ultimately, Singletary touched the ball 17 times on the day (on 18 scoring opportunities) and played 89-percent of Buffalo’s offensive snaps, right on par with what was expected from him. At the meager price of just $4,900, playing almost 90-percent of offensive snaps and getting 17 touches was more than enough to reach value by scoring 16.1 DraftKings points in Week 3. Rostering underpriced running backs that are expected to assume a near-bell-cow role in their team’s respective value has proven to be one of the sharpest moves in NFL cash games, and this instance was no different.
Why Devin Singletary?
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Originally priced as a player originally expected to play approximately 50-percent of offensive snaps, the news that Singletary was going to approach bell-cow status in his team’s offense, he was a massive value at just $4,900.
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Singletary’s expected volume in Buffalo’s offense was secure-- as approximately 1.5-point favorites over the Los Angeles Rams, there was no reason to expect Buffalo would abandon the run in favor of an exceptionally pass-heavy attack.
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On a slate that generally lacked secure salary-saving options across numerous positions, Singletary stood out as the strongest value play of the week.
Through two games, Tyler Lockett stood out as one of the league’s biggest beneficiaries of a seemingly retooled offensive attack in Seattle. In 2020, the Seattle Seahawks have obliged many fans’ and analysts’ requests to #LetRussCook and deploy a pass-heavy offense. The results of this pass-heavy offense were impressive through two games, to say the least, as the Seahawks averaged 36.5 points-per-game over that admittedly-small sample. Tyler Lockett saw 8 targets in each of those games, catching an average of 7.5 passes for 79.5 yards to start the season. In Week 3 against the Dallas Cowboys, Lockett’s volume through the air was expected to increase, as the Seahawks were expected to light up the scoreboard in a shootout projected to total nearly 60 points between the two teams. In short, rostering at least one piece of either team’s passing attack in this expectedly-high-scoring affair was a sharp approach to building cash-game lineups this past weekend, and Tyler Lockett stood out as the best way to gain that exposure. As the proven proverbial safety-blanket for quarterback Russell Wilson, especially when he escapes the pocket and extends plays, Tyler Lockett’s volume in this passing attack is extremely secure-- even given the emergence of D.K. Metcalf as a force to be reckoned with on the outside in this offense. At $6,400, Lockett was rostered by half of the field in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings, and he paid off that price tag easily with his 40-point, 3-touchdown performance against the Dallas Cowboys.
Why Tyler Lockett?
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Playing in a game projected to total 57.5 points between the two teams, Tyler Lockett stood out as the best way to gain exposure to an expected shootout between the Seahawks and Cowboys.
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Lockett’s volume of targets is extremely secure given the proven chemistry he and Russell Wilson have developed over the years, and an increase in passing volume for Seattle’s offense increases both his floor and ceiling of production, especially in soft matchups.
Entering the 2020 season, Diontae Johnson was one of my favorite sleeper wide receivers in all of fantasy football. Johnson quietly posted very impressive numbers in Week 1, hauling in 6 out his 10 targets for 57 yards against the New York Giants, and he followed that up with a not-so-quiet 13-target, 8-catch, 92-yard, and 1-touchdown performance in Week 2 against the Denver Broncos. In last week’s #Trendspotting article, I noted that Johnson was commanding the volume of a WR1, despite most of the attention in Pittsburgh’s passing attack going to JuJu Smith-Schuster. The sharpest NFL DFS players seem to have seen this situation much like I did, as 62.5-percent of players in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 rostered him at $5,400 last week against the Houston Texans. The case for Diontae Johnson in cash in Week 3 is simple: a receiver seeing over 10 targets-per-game against a defense that has yet to prove they are capable of stifling efficient passing attacks is a very strong play at the modest price of just $5,400 on DraftKings. While Houston’s raw totals against the pass were not eye-popping through two weeks, allowing just 207.5 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns-per-game, they defended very little volume through the air. In Week 1, the Texans defended 32 passes, and in Week 2 they defended just 24 pass attempts. However, the efficiency numbers for opposing passing attacks were staggering, as they allowed a 123.3 passer rating in Week 1 and a 113.9 passer rating in Week 2. With Ben Roethlisberger back under center for the Pittsburgh Steelers this season, there was no reason to believe they would struggle to move the ball through the air against Houston, which led sharps to flock to Diontae Johnson as a relatively cheap, high-volume receiver for their cash-game lineups. Unfortunately, Diontae Johnson scored just 0.9 DraftKings points, as he was concussed early in the game and played only 19 offensive snaps on the day.
Why Diontae Johnson?
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Diontae Johnson’s growing role in Pittsburgh’s passing attack has not coincided with a growing DraftKings price, leaving him as an underpriced option at the wide receiver position on a slate that lacked salary relief.
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A soft matchup against Houston’s secondary that has allowed a pair of highly-efficient passing performances to open the season made Pittsburgh’s aerial attack one to target in cash games.
Reviewing My Cash Lineup
127.7 points, Did NOT cash
Where I Was Right
Kyler Murray, Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, and DeAndre Hopkins
As analyzed above in the Overlap section of this article, Murray, Sanders, and Singletary were extremely popular plays in cash-games amongst the sharpest NFL DFS players. Elsewhere, DeAndre Hopkins stood out on this slate as a high-end option that was well worth his steep $7,900 price tag. As noted on last week’s episode of The Power Grid, which can be found on YouTube each week and is typically posted on Friday mornings, Hopkins’ volume and efficiency this season in Arizona’s offense resemble that of Michael Thomas late last season. In similar situations last year, Thomas was efficiently priced above $9,000 on DraftKings, and Hopkins’ $7,800 price in Week 3 was actually an underreaction to his early-season performances in Arizona’s up-tempo offense that loves to air the ball out. As tough as this is to fathom at such a high price, Hopkins was a steal at $7,800 last weekend in a matchup against Detroit’s porous secondary that just allowed over 40 DraftKings points to Davante Adams in Week 2. Paying up for Hopkins in cash was a no-brainer for me in cash-games in Week 3.
Where I Was Wrong
D.J. Moore and a lack of exposure to the shootout between Seattle and Dallas
Last week’s Projected Sharp Play, D.J. Moore, failed to reach value against the Los Angeles Chargers, scoring just 8.5 DraftKings points at $6,100. Moore’s volume fell short of expectations, as running back Mike Davis absorbed almost all of the receiving volume that Christian McCaffrey typically sees in this offense, when healthy. Moore saw just 4 targets on the day, which was 14.2-percent of the total targets in Carolina’s offense for the game and substantially lower than what I expected from Carolina’s number-one wide receiver. Ultimately, Carolina jumping out to an early lead, being content to move the ball slowly and surely via low-risk and low-reward dump-off passes, and rushing plays limited D.J Moore’s production on the day, and it was a perfect storm for the Projected Sharp Play to fall short of projections. Moore was rostered by just 5-percent of players in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 in Week 3, as the majority of the sharps turned to the high scoring matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys for their mid-6k wide receiver selections.
My lack of exposure to the Seattle-Dallas game was the fatal flaw in my cash-game lineup for Week 3, which failed to cash in all formats. In hindsight, gaining exposure to the game with the highest projected total on the slate (57.5 points) featuring two pass-heavy offenses would have been the sharper way to build a cash-game lineup. Although the logic behind D.J. Moore as the Projected Sharp Play was sound, it may have been “too cute” on a slate featuring numerous top-tier passing attacks in soft matchups, and I will adjust accordingly both when analyzing the Projected Sharp Play and building cash-game lineups in the future.
Projected Sharp Play: Mike Davis
In Week 2, Mike Davis’ first game starting in place of the injured Christian McCaffrey, Davis proved capable of handling the majority of the workload McCaffrey typically does in the Carolina backfield. Last weekend, Davis played 76-percent of Carolina’s offensive snaps and handled over 77-percent of the total touches in the backfield for the Panthers. It is evident that Joe Brady and Carolina’s offensive coaching staff have turned to Mike Davis as the bell-cow at the running back position while McCaffrey is sidelined, which bodes well for Davis’ future production projections. Additionally, Davis saw 9 targets in the passing game against the Chargers last week, catching 8 of them for 45 yards and a touchdown. Passing-game work is exceptionally valuable for running backs on DraftKings, given the full-point point-per-reception scoring system, and Davis’ workload through the air last weekend was bested by only Alvin Kamara at the running back position. This week, Mike Davis, who is priced at just $5,700 on DraftKings, has numerous paths to reaching 3x value by scoring nearly 18 DraftKings points. Should the Carolina Panthers find themselves trailing the Arizona Cardinals, as is expected by the betting markets, Davis’ role in Carolina’s passing game provides him a strong floor of production. If the game deviates from the expected game script and the Panthers get out to an early lead once again, a run-heavy offensive attack focused on running out the game clock would bolster Davis’ rushing volume. Overall, Mike Davis is the safest and strongest mid-range play on the Week 4 main slate of games on DraftKings, thanks to how secure his volume in Carolina’s offense is regardless of how the game plays out.
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @StillZam with any questions, comments, or concerns about this article -- or with any fantasy football questions you may have for this upcoming week!
