Targeting Top Offenses

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This article is about a 9-minute read.

Once upon a time, David Dodds wrote a very interesting article that was called Eliminate the Suck. The prevailing concept was pretty simple – avoid players on offenses that could be considered questionable. In the original article, David eliminated the Bottom 10 offenses, kept the Top 10 offenses, and made decisions on the remaining 12 based on their fantasy playoff (Weeks 14-16) schedules. Additional criteria were used (favoring positive value against ADP, while avoiding players with age and injury issues).

While I loved the concept, I thought that it could stand some modernization – and a little less rigidity. Limiting the players to only those on the Top 10 offenses seems arbitrary, so a more quantifiable method was used to filter the list of the Top 200 players (no need for 300) to get down to the best of the best.

Taking 2019 results and sorting offenses by relevant fantasy production in the regular season, a score was given to the best NFL teams to identify a few categories of offenses from last season. Ranking all 32 teams according to yards per game, total points, passing yards, and total yards sounded like a reasonable start. You may notice that rushing touchdowns and yardage were not emphasized and for good reason. The NFL emphasizes the passing game, as 18 teams had over 3.700 yards passing for the season while only nine teams had over 2,000 yards rushing. Further, only 14 teams had 16 or more rushing touchdowns (the 49ers with 23, the Titans with 21, and the Bills with 21 scores representing the only teams over the 20 mark) – yet 16 teams had 25 or more passing scores, with the Top 7 throwing for at least 30. Passing is king in the NFL.

Three clear team groupings emerged from the four criteria:

Group 1 – Elite Offenses [4]

So here are your Big 4 offenses. Dallas, Kansas City, and New Orleans should surprise no one. The Cowboys had a great offense last year and they just added another young talent in WR CeeDee Lamb. The Chiefs may be down Damien Williams, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the rest of the running back depth can certainly make up for the gap here. The Saints added Emmanuel Sanders as a true WR2 for that offense, a gap that has been there for several seasons. All three of these offenses have plenty of veteran leadership, so cohesiveness should be there even early in the year. Tampa Bay may have a new quarterback, but if you ever wanted to have a change, adding Tom Brady is a great way to go. While he may not have any NFL reps with his receivers, adding Rob Gronkowski adds even more talent and we all know how well Brady gets along with the big tight end. Expect all four offenses to be at or near the top of these key categories, leading to plenty of fantasy goodness.

Tier 2 – The Near Elite [4]

Baltimore is the one team to really highlight in this group, as they were first or second in every category but nearly last (29th) in passing yards. Detractors will point to the high passing touchdowns (37th, 1st) versus the low passing yardage, but the Ravens were a run-first team with a record level of success, amassing over 3,000 yards on the way to an NFL season record of 3,296 yards. The Ravens return all offensive starters and added rookie tailback J.K. Dobbins to add to an already impressive pool of rushers to complement quarterback Lamar Jackson. Atlanta added a running back as well, this time turning to former Ram Todd Gurley to lead their backfield. Former Raven Hayden Hurst takes over at tight end, but all the rest of the offense is back and ready to put up big numbers again this year. Seattle and San Francisco return the vast majority of their starters as well, with the Seahawks adding tight end help with Greg Olsen to go along with Will Dissly returning from injury. All four teams have the offensive components to put up plenty of production and make a strong playoff push this year.

Tier 3 – Strong Offenses [7]

This group of seven teams was much trickier, but none of them is a surprise to see on the list. All seven of these teams have plenty of players in the Top 100 of the ADP for 2020, as much is expected from all of these teams. The Eagles get Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson back for the start of this season, which should help boost the offense. The Rams are retooling their offense a bit with Brandin Cooks gone (Houston) and Todd Gurley in Atlanta. Their offense has always been more of a pass-first to set up the run style, so look for both tight ends (Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett) to look to round out the offense along with either Josh Reynolds or rookie Van Jefferson to join Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp in the three-wide base lineup. Two of these teams are replacing their starting quarterbacks, as the Patriots must replace Tom Brady (likely with Cam Newton) and the Chargers backfill for Philip Rivers (Tyrod Taylor or rookie Justin Hebert). Rounding out the quarterback discussion, Matthew Stafford comes back after missing eight games last year for the Lions, and Detroit added DAndre Swift to battle Kerryon Johnson for touches in the backfield. Plenty of changes for these squads, including Houston adding the aforementioned Brandin Cooks to replace DeAndre Hopkins (traded to Arizona) plus David Johnson (part of the Hopkins trade). Lastly, Tennessee has some stability after moving on from Marcus Mariota at quarterback with Ryan Tannehill as the returning starter plus league-leading rusher Derrick Henry to balance out the Titans offense.

To round out the discussion for 2019 team performances, only three other teams had at least one Top 10 statistical result in any of these four categories. The New York Giants were tied for fifth in passing touchdowns, but their 30 scores through the air were just three more than the 11th-place Eagles and Texans. The Minnesota Vikings finished eighth in total points, but without Stefon Diggs and no other ranking above 14th, while Carolina was 10th in passing yards but now have a brand new starter in Teddy Bridgewater and had no other ranking above 19th. All three teams are easy omits for consideration of top offenses as we look toward the coming season.

Putting it all together, these three groups result in 15 offenses to target. Slimming down the Top 200 players (and scratching off 12 defenses, six kickers and Damien Williams who opted out for COVID-19 reasons) leaves 94 players to select from in a typical fantasy draft, including 59 players in the Top 100.

Theoretically, this sounds great – but how does it play out in real life?

Running a mock draft and focusing on these Top 200 players, here is a reasonable draft plan that should yield very high results:

Rounds 1 and 2 - Take a top-end running back in Round 1 then grab either Travis Kelce or George Kittle in Round 2. This affords you a stud at two positions and offers several player options (two tight end choices, 4-5 running backs). Worst case is Derrick Henry and George Kittle, which is still a very strong start.

Rounds 3-6 - Running backs and wide receivers rule the roost here. From Chris Carson or David Johnson, Cooper Kupp, or Robert Woods, there are plenty of players in these four rounds (at least 25) from these three groups of teams from which to select. Wrapping up Round 6 with three running backs, two wide receivers, and a stud tight end is a fantastic way to start your draft.

Round 7 - This is the perfect spot to take your first quarterback. Drew Brees and Tom Brady are both available here, as is Matt Ryan. Three strong options, which screams why you should wait at the position until here.

Rounds 8 and 9 - Wide receiver depth is a concern on your squad, so here is the spot to take two. Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, CeeDee Lamb and Emmanuel Sanders top a solid list for WR3 and WR4 options.

Rounds 10 and 11 - Now is the time to sure up your team, with a backup quarterback and probably another wide receiver or running back. Latavius Murray might slip through to Round 10, while Cam Newton and Jared Goff make for nice backups. A second tight end is possible with T.J. Hockenson, or even Mecole Hardman at this point. Worst case, take Ryan Tannehill for your second signal-caller.

Rounds 12 and on - Several value picks are still available after 130+ players are taken, such as Duke Johnson Jr (Round 12), Mike Williams (12), Sammy Watkins (12-13), Justin Jackson (13), and Blake Jarwin (14). Both Eagles starting wide receivers are incredibly cheap with DeSean Jackson (14-15) and Alshon Jeffery (15-16) still available. Even Carlos Hyde (16) looks tempting late.

Summary

While it is true that no team is ever perfect – especially this early in the year – overall the team drafted based on this strategy looks reasonable and sound. Bye weeks are going to be a question mark, especially if a few members of the roster are from the same team, but given the depth of the roster at each position then it should be very manageable. With players from 15 teams, bye weeks are highly likely to be spread out, and that is the case here with just Week 6 (Saints, Seahawks, and Patriots) and Week 10 (Chiefs, Cowboys, and Falcons) a slight concern. That is a manageable situation, and one that good depth can easily overcome. Further, if some of the players are starters and the others are bench options, the bye weeks are much less of a factor. As long as your quarterback (and, most likely tight end) do not share bye weeks, there should not be an issue. Lastly, our own Doug Drinen did a study many years ago that having teammates on your squad is not a problem, and may actually boost the stability of your team’s productivity.

When it comes to fantasy production, it only makes sense to target the teams most likely to produce for the coming season. While the new up and coming offenses may be attractive to dabble in, every fantasy team owner has experienced that dread where one (or more) of your players are in a blowout and their production is minimal at best in the fourth quarter. This is especially true of running backs, so be very wary. Just in recent memory, that epic Rams-Chiefs 54-51 clash in 2018 had everyone wishing that they had a piece of that game, and hopefully more than one. Targeting higher octane offenses just feels right.

So what do you think of this approach? Contact me below and let me know your thoughts on this strategy.

Best of luck this season!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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