Which current starting running back is most likely to lose his job this season? How fast will it happen and why? Which backup do you believe will rise in the lineup? What kind of production are you expecting from the current backup? Are you targeting him in drafts? If so, in what round?
Jeff Haseley
It would be horrendous news if Todd Gurley fails to reach expectations with the Falcons in 2020. He signed a one-year contract with Atlanta for $5.5M with a $2M signing bonus. You would think a player of his ability and experience could get more than that, but here we are. The lack of a longer deal and less salary invites the possibility that teams are in fact wary of his injury history. Yes, he has three consecutive double-digit touchdown seasons, but there is definitely a concern with his degenerative knee condition.
And now he is on record saying that he is "prepared not to play if the league can't come up with a good plan for playing in a pandemic." This may come across harsh, but it sounds like Gurley has his guaranteed money and he's not fully motivated to play his one-year deal. If this happens, or if Gurley underwhelms in Atlanta, the question looms, who will win the job? The Falcons have little to no support in terms of Gurley's understudy. Ito Smith wasn't effective enough to think that he can be a fantasy-relevant option and Qadree Ollison is lacking the sizzle to be a difference-maker. Ollison did score four times in five carries inside the three-yard line last year, but that doesn't make him a well-rounded back. Atlanta is in trouble if Gurley falters or decides not to play. The likelihood of him not playing seems low, but the fact that it's now a possibility lends more credence to him not being 100% all-in for this season.
Jason Wood
I think we have to establish the pecking order, in some cases. For example, rookies Jonathan Taylor and D'Andre Swift are both being drafted as starters, over incumbents Marlon Mack and Kerryon Johnson -- but I've seen nothing officially anointing them. If we consider the incumbents as starters, then I would put Johnson atop this list and Mack at No. 2. If those are "open battles" and not eligible for the conversation, then I'll go with Le'Veon Bell. Yes, he's being paid a ton of money. Yes, he's the best player at the position on the Jets. But he's also at loggerheads with embattled head coach Adam Gase, and I don't see the Jets situation ending well for a lot of current veterans. Bell wasn't great last year in New York; and I don't think he can be anything less than a Pro Bowl-caliber player to avoid being punished by Gase and, at the very least, put into a committee situation.
Chad Parsons
I will assume we are talking due to a player passing them on the depth chart or the starter losing the job based on play, not an injury or missed time via COVID-19.
If Darrell Henderson or Malcolm Brown is the presumed Rams starter in this exercise, then they are one of the prime names here. I view Cam Akers as the far superior option to either. It will take a short amount of time to translate into a depth chart shift.
Marlon Mack will be on a very short leash as the 1A in Indianapolis as Jonathan Taylor is likely to flash an upside and game-changing potential in a Nick Chubb-like way by midseason at the latest. It will be tough to keep Taylor off the field from progressively more touches as the season continues.
I will mention Mark Ingram in Baltimore as well. He is sturdily the starter to open the season, but much like Marlon Mack has a dynamic big-play rookie who could easily be undeniable for more touches a few weeks into the season. A 20-yard gash run by Ingram could be a house call long touchdown by J.K. Dobbins with the running lanes facilitated by Lamar Jackson.
Matt Waldman
Marlon Mack is still considered the Colts starter, but that tenure has about the same shelf life as Jordan Belfort’s at Stratton Oakmont when the FBI got ahold of him.
Mack needed a catapult to shoot him into the correct hole when he arrived from USF. A couple of years with Frank Gore helped him (just as it helped Kenyan Drake later in Miami) develop into a competent back, although more credit should go to the Colts for adapting to a gap scheme and loading up on the offensive line talent to execute it.
Enter Jonathan Taylor into the backfield equation. Taylor is one of the two most talented rookie backs of the 2020 class. He has Mack’s breakaway speed but in a bigger, stronger, more agile physical package. I have never seen a back generate as many productive scrums in the college game as Taylor.
He’s also a better decision-maker who creates in ways that Mack can only dream of. Unless Taylor’s ball security or pass protection holds him back—and I am optimistic that it won’t by midseason—Mack’s time as the starter will by the Presidential election.
Jordan McNamara
Outside of an injury, holdout, or a COVID-related opt-out, I don't see a situation where a 2019 starter loses his job to a veteran.
I think the most likely running backs to take jobs are rookies. Of the 2019 starters, I think Damien Williams, Marlon Mack, Mark Ingram, and Kerryon Johnson are the most likely to lose out. If I were to predict one to lose their job but maintain a fantasy viable role, it would be Williams or Johnson as an interior runner.
Cam Akers also looms large in LA, but I don't consider the situation one where there is an established starter.
The market is optimistic about KeShawn Vaughn's opportunity in Tampa Bay, but expecting him to take the job of Ronald Jones II in 2020 without a full offseason schedule.
Andy Hicks
There are many presumed starting running backs on shaky ground. I like the mention of Mark Ingram by Chad, but I wouldn’t expect him to be the first to go. Injury notwithstanding it is conceivable that we could see changes to the starter in 22 of the 32 teams. Very few backs are assured of being the 2021 starter.
Realistically though we need to reduce the field by looking at unaccomplished starters or those on thin ice like Ronald Jones II and David Montgomery or the more likely to move on in 2021 guys like Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette and Le’Veon Bell. In the case of Ronald Jones II, the weakness of his main competitor Keshawn Vaughn is pass protection. That does not spell looming starter with Tom Brady around. David Montgomery has one of the weakest backfields behind him in the NFL. Jason illustrated the issues surrounding Bell quite well. When the head coach is being public in saying he doesn’t want you, then it is almost impossible for Bell to succeed. Ultimately I think Jacksonville moves on from Leonard Fournette when any other team dangles something resembling a decent draft pick. Given we are likely to see a few go down with an injury early on, Fournette may find himself popular with other teams as they try to plug in a big gap quickly with a quality player.
Ryan Hester
Jordan Howard in Miami sticks out here. He's a competent back, but his talent doesn't dazzle anyone watching. He's also limited in the passing game. A clear path to a player losing his job is having someone with more talent on the depth chart behind him. And Howard has that with Matt Breida.
Patrick Laird, Myles Gaskin, and Kalen Ballage are all pedestrian talents as well, but each had moments last season. This could turn into a non-productive committee quickly.
Going out on a limb a bit more -- and twisting the question's intent a bit -- Nick Chubb could be a darkhorse answer here. Chubb isn't likely to truly lose his job, but Kareem Hunt could make the situation in Cleveland far more "1a and 1b" than "1 and 2." Hunt caught 37 passes in 8 games last season to Chubb's 36 catches in 16 games. And Hunt isn't only a passing game specialist.
He's capable of running between the tackles and cashing in on goal-line work -- something Cleveland (and Chubb) struggled with last season. There could be a few instances this season where Hunt is on the field for the bulk of a drive and the team leaves him in to finish rather than Chubb getting the touchdown. Chubb's draft price suggests he's the clear workhorse in Cleveland, but Hunt's abilities suggest otherwise.
Bob Henry
I suppose there are three ways to look at this.
- A more talented player with a high draft pedigree will ascend to a starting role overtaking the incumbent. (Detroit, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Baltimore).
- The starting running back gets hurt opening the door for a back to become a priority waiver wire pickup that could be season changing.
- A team's starter is dealt midseason as the losses mount and the window of opportunity closes to dump salary and accelerate a youth movement.
The incumbent most likely to lose their grasp on the starting job, or at least their perceived snap shares going into the season (or from last season), is Damien Williams or Kerryon Johnson. Both players haven't proven they can be a durable lead back for their teams. While William comes off a strong playoffs and Super Bowl, it's arguable whether he is as skilled as Clyde Edwards-Helaire in many of the areas where he has been the team's best player for those situations. That said, I'm not sure any of these top rookies will take over their backfields sooner than options 2 or 3 above.
The most likely starter to lose their job will come from injury, whether it's the traditional kind or due to COVID-19. None of us can predict injuries but someone like Dalvin Cook comes to mind due to contract and durability factors. It also helps that Alexander Mattison is a premium talent waiting in the wings.
The third factor focuses mostly on Le'Veon Bell and Leonard Fournette. Both could be dealt during the season.
At the end of the day, my answer is Sony Michel. Coming off foot surgery (allegedly just clean up) and knee problems, the Patriots have talent and depth available to mitigate Michel if he's slow to recover or continues to play at a lower efficiency level than he is capable of when healthy. Damien Harris was largely forgotten until his ADP started rising a month ago due to Michel's offseason procedure and persisting questions around his long-term durability (knees). Harris is not a burner by any stretch, but he's versatile as a runner and receiver, capable of being Belichick's bell cow to run the clock and protect a lead, and he's been a productive receiver throughout his collegiate career, too.
Andrew Davenport
I agree with the general idea that if the veterans holding on to jobs ahead of rookies are considered starters then I'd pick almost any of them to be in a situation where they could cede the top job by November. That includes Marlon Mack, Kerryon Johnson, either Rams' back, Mark Ingram, Damien Williams, and even Ronald Jones II.
But, there is a guy I've thought about specifically and that is Leonard Fournette. I've trotted this statistic out before, but it bears repeating. According to Pro Football Outsiders, Fournette's Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) gave him a score of exactly - zero. He was ranked 34th in the league and was, by definition, a replacement-level player. His fantasy PPR appeal was from being force-fed 100 targets, not being a special player. It is fine to be interested in Fournette as a player who is going to get plenty of volume, but there are lots of red flags around Fournette. It is notable that the Jaguars signaled they are ready to move on by trying to trade him, and it is also notable that they brought in a receiving specialist to help their efficiency out of the backfield catching the ball. I can't exactly say I'm totally off of Fournette for fantasy, and I'm not here to say Chris Thompson is going to push Fournette out, but something makes me pass him up every time I've had a shot to do it. I think he's in as precarious a situation as a guy coming off a 340 touch campaign can be.
I thought it was interesting that Jacksonville didn't bring in any real early-down competition for Ryquell Armstead, and like I said, Chris Thompson wasn't signed to be more than a complementary player I don't think. So I think it is one of the more clear cut situations in the league when it comes to handcuffs. I have definitely been targeting him late in drafts because he doesn't cost more than a very late pick and it sure seems as though Fournette has plenty of avenues to disappoint. Armstead isn't someone I think will turn into a top option, but I think he is capable of producing as a solid RB3 or Flex if he gets the shot. I would guess that this is going to be defined fairly early in the season. If Fournette gets off to a good start and the Jags are competitive at all then they'll probably sit tight. But lose a few early games where he is getting 15/67 rushing and 2/9 receiving and he'll become expendable real quick, or he'll head to the bench for the roster turnover to continue in Jacksonville.
Phil Alexander
I have no issues drafting Kenyan Drake early in Round 2 but I'm surprised no one mentioned him here. Drake has enjoyed productive stretches during his four-year career but has never held down a starting role for an entire season.
Chase Edmonds was on the precipice of a breakout before a hamstring strain caused him to miss three games, necessitating the trade for Drake. A 60-40 split in Drake's favor is within the range of possible outcomes, which would give Edmonds some standalone value and league-winning upside if Drake falters or is forced to miss games.
I'm reaching for Edmonds ahead of ADP, as soon as the consensus top-35-40 running backs are off the board.
Sigmund Bloom
I'm concerned about Le'Veon Bell and Leonard Fournette because both are on teams that have made it clear that they don't want them beyond this year. The Jets never would have signed Bell if Adam Gase got his way and there's no way that they are keeping him at the 2021 price tag of 8 million with a 3 million training camp bonus. Will they start to look at Lamical Perine and other younger backs who make the team if they fall out of contention? The Jaguars tried to trade Fournette during the draft after declining his fifth-year option. He was a Coughlin pick, and Coughlin is no longer with the organization. They should take a longer look at Ryquell Armstead (who is a good late-round target) and any other young backs on the roster as the season goes on to know how much they need to invest in running back next year.
