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Will "Gronk Smash" in 2020?

If you put your ear to the ground when Rob Gronkowski came out of retirement in April to join Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, you could almost hear the oncoming stampede of fantasy gamers eager to reach for him in drafts.

But then a funny thing happened. We got to July, and Gronkowski typically gets selected outside the top-75 overall picks.

What happened to the hype that should have accompanied Gronkowski to Tampa Bay? Shouldn’t everyone’s favorite football bro, and arguably the best tight end ever to play the game, rejoining the most decorated quarterback in sports history have folks in a frenzy?

It appears the narratives swirling around Gronkowski are too much for early drafters to ignore:

• He is too old
• He looked like a shell of himself in 2018
• Bruce Arians’ scheme ignores tight ends
• There is too much target competition in Tampa Bay

Does the crowd have it right, or has groupthink swung the pendulum too far in the wrong direction, making a bet on Gronkowski returning to form (or close enough to it) a proposition with minimal risk?

Is He Too Old?

Gronkowski averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game over his career, which is the most of any tight end in NFL history. There have been six tight ends to enter the league since 1997 who averaged at least 10 fantasy points per game and played an age-31 season:

Takeaways:

• Elite tight ends, even those with injury histories like Graham and Gates, have remained productive at age-31. In his final season and switching teams, Shockey (who barely qualified at 10.17 career fantasy points per game) was the only one who wasn’t a startable fantasy asset.
• The Hall of Famer, Gonzalez, averaged 13 fantasy points per game throughout his career, which led all players in the cohort. He also had the most prolific age-31 season. Gronkowski has out-produced Gonzalez by a 16% margin on a per-game basis throughout his career.
• 2017 was the year the wheels fell completely off for Jimmy Graham. Like Gronkowski, Graham had been worn down by injuries. His yards per target dipped by 36% and his yards per game by nearly 45% from the previous year. But Graham was able to maintain his fantasy value at age-31 by leading all tight ends in red-zone targets. Gronkowski is the one tight end who was Graham’s superior in the red zone. Graham’s 2017 finish (TE8) is something close to Gronkowski’s floor unless he experiences a similar efficiency drop, which (contrary to popular belief) he didn’t show evidence of when we last saw him on the field.

The recent history of aging, elite tight ends shows us Gronkowski is not too old to produce a top-5 fantasy season and is likely to at least return value at his current TE9 ADP.

Has He Lost It?

Our last memories of Gronkowski in 2018 did not include many majestic ‘Gronk Spikes’. You might even recall Rex Ryan saying Gronkowski looked like he was running with a piano on his back following New England’s Week 15 loss to Pittsburgh.

There is no arguing Gronkowski, who put up a career-low three touchdowns and just 52.5 yards per game, looked diminished in 2018. But he also played through back and ankle injuries from Week 3. We’ll never know the specifics around those injuries, but considering focusing on his health was the No. 1 factor in Gronkowski announcing his retirement at age-29, we can conclude they were severe enough to affect his play.

As bad as Gronkowski may have looked in his final season, he quietly maintained much of his past efficiency:

• His 14.5 yards per reception was in line with his career average of 15.1
• His 65.3% catch rate mirrored his career 65.6% mark
• He managed a long touchdown of 42 yards
• He finished the regular season as the TE9 on a per-game basis
• He was able to recapture his form in the playoffs with a combined 18-12-166-0 receiving line in the conference finals and Super Bowl, despite battling a severe quad contusion

If Gronkowski can maintain low-end TE1 status while fighting through lingering injuries, he has nothing but upside at his ADP if you believe his time away from football will help him enter this season healthy. We won’t know for sure until we see him on the field, but these quotes from Gronkowski during an April video conference are reasons for optimism:

“I said it from the beginning that I wouldn't come back unless I was feeling it; unless I'm feeling good, feeling healthy and I'm feeling like I'm ready to go. This is the time."

"My body feels good. I definitely worked over the last year too. It's not like I've taken off and done nothing. I mean, at some points, there was a good month or two where I didn't do anything. My body just needed that time to rest, needed that time to heal.”

"There was hands down that I was in very painful situations. Even my very last game. For four weeks, I couldn't walk that well after the Super Bowl game we won from my quad contusion.”

"I was in some pain at some serious times, even while playing the game, even in games, but that's what I did the last year. I took care of myself. I let my body heal. I let my body rest. I let my body get the treatment that it needed. I feel like I broke all the scar tissue that was in my body, got rid of all the inflammation in my body that was holding me back my last year I felt like. It feels good."

Does Bruce Arians Hate Tight Ends?

“We pay Larry (Fitzgerald) and those guys too much money to throw it to the tight ends. They’re here to block.” - Bruce Arians, 2015

It was the quote that launched one of the most well-held narratives in the history of fantasy football. Unfortunately, it needs to be rehashed this year after O.J. Howard flamed out under Arians as a popular breakout candidate in 2019.

The Undeniable Truth

In his last nine seasons as either a head coach or offensive coordinator, Bruce Arians has not had a tight end finish inside the top-18 at the position in total fantasy points scored.

His tight ends in those seasons:

• 2010-2011 - Heath Miller
• 2012 - Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener
• 2013 - Rob Housler
• 2014 - Housler and John Carlson
• 2015-2016 - Darren Fells and Jermaine Gresham
• 2017 - Gresham, Ricky Seals-Jones, Troy Niklas
• 2019 - Howard and Cameron Brate

Some takeaways from Arians’ history with tight ends:

• Miller is the most accomplished tight end on the list. He finished as the TE8 with Arians as his offensive coordinator in 2007 and 2009.
• In 2012, Fleener and Allen combined for a 114-71-802-5 receiving line. The resulting 181.2 PPR fantasy points were equivalent to the TE8 that year.
• Gresham joined Arians’ Cardinals squad in 2015. His last fantasy-relevant season was 2012.
• Rob Housler is the quintessential athletic bust. He was awful everywhere he played.
• Seals-Jones was a popular fantasy sleeper in 2018 after an impressive three-week stretch on Arians’ watch as a rookie. He’s done nothing of consequence in two seasons since.

We can safely conclude Arians’ offenses weren’t exactly talent-rich at tight end, which helps explain the lack of production, at least until last season.

O.J. Did It

2019 was supposed to be different. Howard was a former first-round pick, fresh off a promising sophomore season, whose physical gifts rivaled those of Vernon Davis (the position’s preeminent athletic freak). Yet he quickly landed in the dog house, which further fanned the flames of the ‘Arians ruins tight ends’ narrative.

But why are we pinning Howard’s failures on the coach and not the player?

• Howard’s routes run on team pass plays (when active) increased from 43% in 2018 to 61.3% under Arians.
• His 11.1% drop rate ranked second among tight ends
• Howard’s average target distance dipped by 1.3 yards from 2018 but his yards per game cratered by nearly 42% in one of the league’s most prolific passing offenses
• He produced half as many yards after the catch per game in 2019 as he did in 2018
• #NeverForget:

Arians’ complex system may have been difficult for a young player to pick up in year one, but Howard stunk all on his own in 2019. Gronkowski doesn’t lack experience with complex schemes, and this year’s Buccaneers offense may not closely resemble those from Arians’ past.

What's The Pecking Order in ‘Tompa Bay’?

We need to forget some of what we know about Arians’ history, and especially what we saw in his first year as Buccaneers coach, when projecting this season’s offense. It feels safe to say any Arians team will skew pass-heavy and include more of a vertical element than Brady’s been used to recently, but it would be foolish to think Tampa Bay brought Brady in to have him start over from scratch at age-42.

We’ve seen Brady orchestrate one of the most effective 12 personnel (one running back, two wide receivers, two tight ends) offenses the game has ever seen with Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in New England. Given the addition of Gronkowski to Howard and Cameron Brate, it should come as no surprise Arians has already stated 12 personnel will be the Buccaneers base formation this season. Arians is no stranger to 12 personnel sets but it’s a significant departure from last year when he ran 64% of the team’s offensive plays from 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers).

What does it mean? Check out this excerpt from Matt Waldman’s recent article, which highlights Howard as an end-game sleeper:

"In practice, the Buccaneers use of sets with two tight ends as its base package means that even when it spreads the field with four-receivers, the No.3 wide receiver will actually be fifth or sixth in the pecking order behind Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Gronkowski, Howard and possibly Ronald Jones II or KeShawn Vaughn. Much of the time, the WR3 won't even be on the field because the base package will often present run-oriented or short-passing looks to bait the defense into specific personnel and allow Brady to change the play to create mismatches.

From its two-tight-end packages, Brady will shift Gronkowski and/or Howard around the formation to create three- and four-receiver sets. Expect several packages where one of the tight ends moves to the outside, Godwin shifts into the slot, and the other tight end stays as an in-line option so Godwin gets a mismatch against a nickel back or safety.

Another example is to run from the base package and earn enough success to force the defense to use heavier personnel. Then Brady can up the tempo, and shift to three- or four-receiver sets where Howard and/or Gronkowski split outside and Godwin and Evans play inside with the aim of forcing one safety or linebacker into a massive mismatch."

Arians is telling us he’s smart enough to leverage the talent on his roster to keep opposing defenses on their heels and that means leaning on tight ends in the passing game. The question for our purposes is how big Gronkowski’s slice of the pie will be.

Doing the Math

Before we allocate targets for the Buccaneers in 2020, some assumptions:

• Brady’s ability to manage games and limit turnovers will reduce the number of offensive plays Tampa Bay runs this year.
• The Buccaneers pass play percentage will decrease some with better game scripts, though it’s worth noting Arians’ offenses are notoriously pass-heavy.
• Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will remain target hogs, but guys like Miller and Justin Watson will have to fight for crumbs.
• Brady’s Patriots offenses traditionally ranked near the top of the league in running back receptions and both KeShawn Vaughn and Dare Ogunbowale are able pass-catchers out of the backfield. The running back group’s target share should ratchet up a bit.
• The tight end group has the most to gain with the addition of Gronkowski and shift to more 12 personnel formations.

What might the breakdown look like compared to last year?

Even if the presence of two other viable tight ends on the roster limits Gronkowski to a modest 60% of the team’s offensive snaps, there is room for him to finish with about 85-90 targets in this scenario. To get there, he would have to maintain his career 15% targets-per-snap rate, which is possible (if not likely) given his familiarity with Brady.

If Gronkowski duplicates his career 65% catch rate and experiences a 10% decline in per-reception efficiency, we’re looking at about 60 catches, 800 receiving yards, and of course, 8-10 touchdowns. Plus, a higher ceiling exists if:

• Howard continues to flop
• 60% winds up a low snap-share projection
• Gronkowski is actually healthy for the first time in years

Projections

Final Thoughts

If you miss out on a top-4 tight end and don’t believe in this year’s late-round breakout candidates, your choices in the middle rounds are dicey:

• Evan Engram has missed 13 games in the past two seasons
• Tyler Higbee has five good games in four years
• Hunter Henry is in a run-first offense with limited quarterbacks
• Hayden Hurst has never done it before
• Jared Cook is a glaring regression candidate

Gronkowski comes with all the questions we've addressed, but he has the advantage of being the most dominant tight end we’ve ever seen play. He’ll have to stay healthy, but so does every other NFL player, and at least he has the benefit of an extra year off to heal his lingering injuries. If you draft any tight end in the middle rounds, choose greatness and fun over question marks and mediocrity. Gronkowski is your guy.

Other Thoughts From Around The Web

J. Canno of SI.com thinks touchdown scoring alone qualifies Gronkowski as a TE1 in fantasy:

"Gronkowski will bring TE1 value for one very simple reason: touchdowns. When he plays at least 10 games, Gronkowski averages 10.3 touchdowns per season. With Brady entering a new offensive system, he will likely find a security blanket in Gronkowski, particularly in the red zone."

Matt Bowen of ESPN.com has Gronkowski on his bust list:

"I get the connection here with quarterback Tom Brady, along with the expectation that the Bucs will use more two-tight-end personnel. Throw seams and crossers. That fits the profile for Gronk, who caught 71.1% of his targets from Brady on passes thrown less than 15 yards with the Patriots from 2014 to 2018. However, Gronk's current ADP is simply too rich for me. He hasn't played a full season since 2011, and expecting Gronk to return as a consistent, high-end fantasy option is a bit of stretch here. Gronk should be targeted as a lower-tier TE1 in 2019."

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