The Replacements Week 11

Photo: Imagn Images

The Coronavirus has forced sports to adopt unique measures to produce a playing season. Because a positive test could sideline a player for at least three weeks and there’s no way of projecting how many positive cases there will be during the NFL season, Footballguys wants to give you resources that will help you weather the potential loss of players.

As the author of the most comprehensive scouting analysis of skill players since 2006, I’m one of those resources—especially for players at the bottom of depth charts, signed to practice squads and training at home with dreams of that phone call from an NFL team.

Each week, I’ll walk you through the shortlist of players who will get their shot to contribute as replacements to starters who tested positive for the Coronavirus. We’ll examine three types of replacements:

1. Players who get immediate playing time.
2. Preemptive additions from your league’s waiver wire.
3. Options worth monitoring in case the established backup eventually misses time.

If you don’t think street free agents won’t factor, Raheem Mostert is on line one waiting for you to pick up, and he has a long list of players before him who would like to make an appointment to set you straight.

Week 1-10 Review and Changes

It's been a crazy season. Hopefully, you've embraced your sense of adventure when it comes to your need for last-moment replacements. Let's see if we continue delivering decent plays.

Here my brief thoughts and recommendations for previous players as we move forward. These are not in order of preference. If there's an asterisk (*), they've moved down a tier. If they have a number symbol (#) they have moved up:

Add Now

• #Tua Tagovailoa: I doubt he's available in most leagues, but he's performed like the top quarterback in this 2020 draft class. In my opinion, he is.
• #Jordan Reed: Two touchdowns and a primary role in the passing game got him the quick add weeks ago, but a knee injury put him on IR. He looked good against the Saints and is worth adding for stretch-run potential after the 49ers' Week 11 bye.
• #Olamide Zaccheaus: Brandon Powell and Russell Gage were earning opportunities ahead of Zaccheaus but Zaccheaus has been used as a worthwhile replacement for Calvin Ridley who is in danger of not playing this weekend. If inactive Zaccheaus has top-15 upside at his position.
• #Richie James: The 49ers receiver got wide open behind a pair of Saints defensive backs on a deep post that Nick Mullens underthrew but fumbled a punt later that took San Francisco out of the game. James still has a small window of becoming a significant contributor, he'll need to make the most of opportunities after the Week 11 bye.
• #Jordan Wilkins: Still, the No.2 "two-down runner" in this rotation behind Jonathan Taylor, he's worth paring with Taylor if you have the luxury. That's what I mentioned prior to last week's 100 yards from scrimmage and it makes him an immediate add for those with the luxury or need.
• Keelan Cole: Cole continues to show value as a flex-play with upside.
• Travis Fulgham: He's now considered the starting X receiver even with Alshon Jeffery's return. As long as he continues to play well, it's his gig, and he's playing well.
• Robert Tonyan Jr: Tonyan remains a viable option.
• Brett Rypien: The Broncos' third-stringer had an up-and-down box score output but showed enough to consider him a potential emergency value who may be needed this weekend.
• Tim Patrick: Patrick played well upon his return and was on track for a starter day against the Raiders until he got in a fight and was ejected from the game.
• James Robinson: Now an established starter in 2020, Robinson shouldn't be a free agent in any format.

• *Alfred Morris: Listed two weeks ago as a player to monitor, Morris' 67 yards on 9 touches against Washington was an indication that he's worth having on rosters as a weekend rental until Devonta Freeman returns to action. Wayne Gallman has been a TD-dependent fantasy commodity, but he's earning enough of a workload to limit Morris because Morris lacks receiving chops.
• #Scott Miller: Miller remains one injury away from delivering starting production for fantasy squads fielding 3-4 receivers.
• #Denzel Mims: Mims earned some vertical targets last week against the Chiefs and nearly converted one of them. The Jets' offense will keep him no more than an inconsistent match-up play out of desperation, but Mims' talent keeps him on the list for consideration.
• David Irving: Irving has played well in limited time for the past two weeks, but is out this week with an injury. He's worth adding if dropped hastily.
• #Gabriel Davis: Davis is a productive player when considering his role in the Bills' offense and will do a lot more if John Brown or Stefon Diggs get hurt.
• #Donovan Peoples-Jones: Shutout the past two weeks, keep in mind that Cleveland weather was windy and difficult for throwing the football.
• *Devonta Freeman: Despite limited touches, Freeman showed more juice than I think people realize. Freeman may be back this week.

Monitor

• #Darwin Thompson: Darrel Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are ill this week, which could mean carries for Thompson. If both backs are inactive, Thompson could make a worthwhile desperation addition if you're seeking at least a small amount of points ahead of a zero.
• *Case Keenum: Baker Mayfield still doesn't look good enough to think he's completely safe from benching with another bad week or two. This situation remains worth monitoring.
• *Mike Boone: A valuable injury-substitute.
• Bryan Edwards: He saw 20 snaps and 1 target--an out-route he caught and bounced off a safety's hard hit. Continue waiting for an increase in snap count.
• *Lamar Miller: The Bears haven't called up Miller from the practice squad, but his experience and the Bears' need for depth makes Miller a preemptive option. However, the fact that the Bears have struggled on the ground and Miller hasn't seen the active roster after three weeks means we're about 1-2 weeks from cutting bait on his potential this year.
• *JaMycal Hasty: With Raheem Mostert returning, Hasty is still one injury away from a bigger role.
• *Jordan Howard: Howard didn't fit in Miami, but is back in Philadelphia. If injuries strike, Howard could earn a call-up from the taxi squad.
• *Tyler Johnson: Johnson is earning playing time but not enough to count on until there's another injury to the receiving corps.
• *Austin Mack: The rookie from Ohio State failed to build on his promising debut in Week 9. He wasn't bad in Week 10 but failed to garner a bigger piece of the workload. Golden Tate may be on the outs with the organization by year's end, but based on his workload, the year is far from over.
• *Mack Hollins: Jakeem Grant appears to be holding his own enough to earn opportunities as the second option among the wide receivers. Hollins only earned one target last week.
• *Dante Pettis: He's on the active roster as of last week, but he hasn't seen the field yet.
• *Quintez Cephus: Marvin Hall has done more for the Lions offense with Kenny Golladay. If Marvin Jones is inactive, Cephus could earn more targets but he hasn't done enough to be a preemptive add at this time.
• *Mike Thomas: Tee Higgins has done enough that Thomas is an injury-substitute of note.
• *Dez Bryant: Officially signed to the team, Bryant has done nothing for the past two weeks.
• *Adam Shaheen: Shaheen has seen targets, but not enough to consider him for your roster.

Let's look at this week's recommendations.

Add Now: K.J. Hamler and P.J. Walker

The Skinny on Hamler: A slot receiver who can win as a perimeter deep threat, Hamler is a rookie from Penn State who has delivered big plays in a few games this year. He's a small and thin option with a lot in common with Seahawks starter Tyler Lock. Both are tougher in the middle of the field and in contested situations than they would appear. Drew Lock had an awful game against the Raiders in Week 10. Some of that had to do with injury but unless you think pain has been the reason for Lock staring down wide receivers, Lock is responsible for playing without savvy.

Hamler has earned 20 targets during the past two games, so he's becoming an important part of the game plan. Expect another week with 50-65 snaps, 8-10 targets, and at least 4-6 catches for 50-70 yards.

Recommendation: Brett Rypien is a savvier quarterback than Lock. He's inexperienced, so he is vulnerable to defenses tricking him with disguised coverages, which was the case against New York when Rypien started for Lock earlier in the year. Still, Rypien plays with good anticipation and aggression. He's also smarter in the pocket.

This will be important against a Miami Dolphins defense that has tested its opponents with heavy blitzes. The good thing about poised quarterbacks against heavy blitzes is that the secondary playing behind those heavy blitzes isn't doing anything sophisticated. Kyler Murray beat this blitz two weeks ago with a deep shot to Christian Kirk up the seam. Expect Rypien or Lock to try the same within Hamler at least twice in this game, which gives Hamler the potential for another 13-16 points from a long scoring reception tacked onto the figures above.

The Skinny on Walker: Matt Rhule's former star quarterback at Temple, Walker is a mobile and athletic passer with a big enough arm to target receivers in the vertical game while he's buying time. Walker had success this year with the Houston Roughnecks of the XFL, leading the league in passing yards and touchdowns. Before that, he spent time on the Colts practice squad. With Teddy Bridgewater dealing with a moderate knee injury, Rule has told the public that Walker and Grier are earning consideration for the start.

Walker earns the edge for three reasons: 1) Walker earned the clean-up duty against Tampa ahead of Grier. 2) Rhule told the media that draft capital would not factor into his decision. 3) Grier left a bad impression on the team and front office as a rookie when he was given a chance to play for Kyle Allen and (admitted this offseason) that he didn't prepare while having the role as the Panthers' No.2 quarterback.

Recommendation: The Panthers have an excellent offense for Walker to thrive against a generous Lions defense and Walker's ability to improvise plus Rhule's past working relationship should make Walker the starter on Sunday. Curtis Samuel has proven an excellent bad-ball player who works back to his quarterback and Walker's legs also add to the gadgetry that this offense likes to use. While Brett Rypien gets the slight edge if you need a quarterback, I wouldn't look my nose down at Walker if he's given the shot.

Preemptive: Marvin Hall, and Danny Amendola

The Skinny on Hall: A speedster from the University of Washington, Hall had a stint in Atlanta before moving on to Detroit as a free agent. In recent week's Hall has performed well enough for roster consideration in deeper leagues and is worth an emergency start as a last-second add in shallower formats. During the past three weeks, Hall has averaged 44 targets, 7.5 receptions, and 67 yards. He scored last week against Washington's underrated defense and earned 100 yards against a good Colts unit.

With Kenny Golladay still on the mend, Marvin Jones potentially inactive, Danny Amendola dealing with a hip injury that has kept him out of practice, and Quintez Cephus doing little when on the field, Hall gives you the best upside of the Lions receivers.

Recommendation: If Matthew Stafford plays, Hall is worth the addition above Amendola because of their rapport in the vertical game against a weak Carolina defense. If Chase Daniel starts, Amendola is your guy, see below.

The Skinny on Amendola: The career slot receiver has probably seen more training rooms and emergency facilities of any player in the league. Despite my Danny Hematoma nickname for him, he's a tough inside presence with great route skills and above-average red-zone skills for an option seldomly targeted there.

Recommendation: He's dealing with a hip injury that has kept him out of practice this week. If he's not a game-time decision, he's worth adding as a last-moment starter if you're desperate. This is especially the case if Chase Daniel starts for Stafford because Daniel lacks the arm to target the routes that top starters make.

Monitor: Will Grier

The Skinny on Grier: I had a high grade for Grier in the 2019 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. He's a talented vertical thrower with a lot of creative skill from the pocket. The Panthers drafted him early, having high expectations for his development as a potential starter after Cam Newton played out his contract.

Unfortunately, Grier lacked maturity as a rookie. He did not prepare despite earning the backup role after the Panthers lost Newton for the year. When the Panthers turned to Grier down the stretch to see what he could do, Grier bombed—admitting this summer that he didn't take his role seriously last year.

This could be a death knell for his NFL reputation because professional teams don't draft a quarterback in the second round and expect him to screw around as the second-string option. They expect him to hyper-prepare. It's likely that the Panthers see Grier as a contract they are waiting to be fulfilled and they'll let him walk afterward. Other teams will know about Grier's past behavior and possibly regard him as little more than a career backup.

Recommendation: If Grier gets the start, it means that Rhule and the Carolina staff have wiped the slate clean and Grier has earned the opportunity on the merits of his work. If so, this will be Grier's shot to turn around his career. A good outing could solidify a backup role. A great outing could restore intrigue, if not quiet excitement, about Grier as a potential starter.

Knowing that Grier has a lot to prove with this game, if you're desperate for a starting quarterback and Rypien is gone, Grier's story and talent make him worth chasing the upside, even if his recent past indicates his lack of maturity might remain an issue. After all, he hasn't separated himself enough from Walker this offseason to even get a clear shot at playing this weekend.