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Quality Starts: Wide Receivers (PPR)

Jeff Pasquino's Quality Starts: Wide Receivers (PPR)
By Jeff Pasquino, June 22, 2020

Quality Starts: Wide Receivers (PPR)
Photo: Imagn Images

There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.

Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.

So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2019 season, the first attempt was to use the #24 WR for the year (Michael Gallup, 212.7 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average (13.3 points per game). The next step, however, was to take all of the Top 75 wide receivers from 2019 and sort them on a per game average. That method can account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, which is how most fantasy team owners would decide their roster for the week. The WR24 on a per-game average basis last season was Stefon Diggs, with 218.1 fantasy points in 15 games, or a 14.54 points per game average - certainly higher than Gallup over 16 contests. The reason that this is the better baseline comes from four strong examples of receivers that were outside of the Top 24 wide receiver performance list for the season, but averaged more than 15 points per game. Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Calvin Ridley were all fantasy starters when they were healthy, and their strong points per game averages pointed to that fact. Therefore, using the per game average is by far the best method. Now it is reasonable to also acknowledge that taking WR24 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 24th WR should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league as a WR2 and a great WR3.

Next, we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a wide receiver has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of WR performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 24th WR average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a WR Quality Start.

Using the WR Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:

RB Start Type
Fantasy Points
Bad Start
0 to 10.9
Quality Start
11.0 to 18.1
Excellent Start
18.2+

Table 1: 2019 WR Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - PPR Scoring

Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 75 WRs from 2019 and how many of each type of start resulted for each:

Wide Receiver
Team
Excellent Starts
Quality Starts
Bad Starts
Total Starts
NOS
11
3
2
16
TBB
5
6
3
14
ATL
6
6
3
15
HOU
6
6
3
15
TBB
6
2
4
12
GBP
8
2
2
12
LAR
7
5
3
15
LAC
6
5
5
16
NEP
8
4
4
16
Allen Robinson
CHI
7
6
3
16
KCC
5
4
2
11
DET
6
4
6
16
LAR
6
3
6
15
D.J. Moore
CAR
5
7
3
15
DAL
5
5
5
15
MIA
6
7
2
15
DAL
4
5
5
14
ATL
5
4
4
13
D.J. Chark
JAC
4
3
8
15
Marvin Jones
DET
5
2
6
13
CLE
4
8
4
16
SEA
4
6
5
15
BUF
3
9
3
15
MIN
5
5
5
15
NYG
4
2
4
10
CIN
4
6
6
16
NYG
3
7
2
12
DEN
5
5
6
16
WAS
4
4
6
14
TEN
6
3
7
16
ARI
2
5
6
13
Odell Beckham
CLE
2
7
7
16
SFO
4
6
5
15
IND
3
1
6
10
NYJ
6
1
9
16
BUF
3
7
5
15
PHI
3
2
3
8
Will Fuller
HOU
3
1
7
11
CIN
1
2
5
8
NYG
4
3
7
14
SEA
3
8
4
15
MIA
2
1
5
8
MIN
3
2
4
9
SFO
3
3
10
16
ARI
1
8
7
16
LAC
1
7
7
15
CAR
2
6
8
16
DAL
3
3
9
15
BAL
2
4
8
14
JAC
3
4
7
14
OAK
4
2
7
13
OAK
1
7
5
13
Robby Anderson
NYJ
4
4
8
16
PIT
5
2
9
16
CHI
2
2
5
9
KCC
1
2
9
12
TBB
3
4
4
11
JAC
3
4
8
15
PIT
3
2
7
12
DET
3
1
10
14
HOU
2
3
8
13
PIT
4
1
8
13
PHI
2
1
7
10
CIN
1
4
8
13
IND
4
3
7
14
LAR
2
3
7
12
NEP
2
3
10
15
CHI
3
4
8
15
NYJ
1
2
9
12
TEN
3
0
12
15
Mecole Hardman
KCC
2
5
8
15
TEN
1
1
10
12
NEP
2
2
6
10
MIA
1
3
9
13
SEA
1
1
9
11
Totals
277
291
454

Table 2: 2019 WR Start Types Sorted By Top 75 WRs - PPR Scoring

That's a lot of info to digest, so here is some help. First, we see that there were fewer Excellent Starts (277) than there were Quality Starts (291), but it goes even further than that. Last season's 277 Excellent Starts total was nearly the same number as 2017 and 2018 (both 279), but the number of Quality Starts dropped significantly from 2017 (2018 and 2019 were both down 20% from 357 in both 2017 and 2016). This can be attributed to the higher standard for both Excellent Starts (18.2+ points) and Quality Starts (11.0), both the highest levels in the past 11 seasons. While the NFL is clearly favoring the passing game, the bar for elite wide receivers is also going up. Of course, there were also a large number of Bad Starts (454), but we are only looking for the best here, plus a "start" is not as definitive for a positional player that may just see partial playing time. Table 3 summarizes a few of these trends:

Year
Excellent Starts
Quality Starts
Excellent Start Threshold
2019
277
291
18.2
2018
279
286
17.5
2017
279
357
15.4
2016
267
357
16.7
2015
310
305
16.6
2014
325
290
16.4
2013
322
281
15.8
2012
355
319
15.4
2011
315
340
15.4
2010
332
281
14.9
2009
322
348
14.8

Table 3: Excellent and Quality Starts - 2009 to 2019 - PPR Scoring

Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, we need to define a valuable starting wide receiver in this system. We want a WR that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL wide receiver. Here is the formula:

STARTING FANTASY WR VALUE = EXCELLENT STARTS - BAD STARTS

We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average WR performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.

On with the results, sorted by value:

Wide Receiver
Team
Excellent Starts
Quality Starts
Bad Starts
Total Starts
Net Value
NOS
11
3
2
16
9
GBP
8
2
2
12
6
LAR
7
5
3
15
4
NEP
8
4
4
16
4
Allen Robinson
CHI
7
6
3
16
4
MIA
6
7
2
15
4
ATL
6
6
3
15
3
HOU
6
6
3
15
3
KCC
5
4
2
11
3
TBB
5
6
3
14
2
TBB
6
2
4
12
2
D.J. Moore
CAR
5
7
3
15
2
LAC
6
5
5
16
1
ATL
5
4
4
13
1
NYG
3
7
2
12
1
DET
6
4
6
16
0
LAR
6
3
6
15
0
DAL
5
5
5
15
0
CLE
4
8
4
16
0
BUF
3
9
3
15
0
MIN
5
5
5
15
0
NYG
4
2
4
10
0
PHI
3
2
3
8
0
DAL
4
5
5
14
-1
Marvin Jones
DET
5
2
6
13
-1
SEA
4
6
5
15
-1
DEN
5
5
6
16
-1
TEN
6
3
7
16
-1
SFO
4
6
5
15
-1
SEA
3
8
4
15
-1
MIN
3
2
4
9
-1
TBB
3
4
4
11
-1
CIN
4
6
6
16
-2
WAS
4
4
6
14
-2
BUF
3
7
5
15
-2
IND
3
1
6
10
-3
NYJ
6
1
9
16
-3
NYG
4
3
7
14
-3
MIA
2
1
5
8
-3
OAK
4
2
7
13
-3
CHI
2
2
5
9
-3
IND
4
3
7
14
-3
D.J. Chark
JAC
4
3
8
15
-4
ARI
2
5
6
13
-4
Will Fuller
HOU
3
1
7
11
-4
CIN
1
2
5
8
-4
JAC
3
4
7
14
-4
OAK
1
7
5
13
-4
Robby Anderson
NYJ
4
4
8
16
-4
PIT
5
2
9
16
-4
PIT
3
2
7
12
-4
PIT
4
1
8
13
-4
NEP
2
2
6
10
-4
Odell Beckham
CLE
2
7
7
16
-5
JAC
3
4
8
15
-5
PHI
2
1
7
10
-5
LAR
2
3
7
Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags Analysis WR Davante Adams Nelson Agholor Keenan Allen Danny Amendola Robbie Chosen Cole Beasley Odell Beckham Jr Tyler Boyd A.J. Brown John Brown Marquise Brown D.J. Chark Jr Randall Cobb Chris Conley Brandin Cooks Amari Cooper Jamison Crowder Corey Davis Stefon Diggs Phillip Dorsett Mike Evans Will Fuller V Michael Gallup Chris Godwin Kenny Golladay Josh Gordon A.J. Green Mecole Hardman Jr. Tyreek Hill T.Y. Hilton DeAndre Hopkins Adam Humphries Justin Jefferson Jerry Jeudy Diontae Johnson Julio Jones Marvin Jones Jr Christian Kirk Cooper Kupp CeeDee Lamb Jarvis Landry Tyler Lockett Terry McLaurin DK Metcalf Anthony Miller DJ Moore DeVante Parker Zach Pascal Breshad Perriman Hunter Renfrow Calvin Ridley Allen Robinson II John Ross Henry Ruggs III Curtis Samuel Deebo Samuel Emmanuel Sanders Mohamed Sanu Sterling Shepard Darius Slayton Darius Slay JuJu Smith-Schuster Kenny Stills Courtland Sutton Auden Tate Adam Thielen Michael Thomas Michael Thomas James Washington Sammy Watkins Dede Westbrook Mike Williams Preston Williams Tyrell Williams Albert Wilson Robert Woods

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