For Quarterback and Tight End targets click here
The fun thing about auctions is that each position has a vastly different strategy on how it should be attacked. It can also be a stumbling block for beginners -- or even veterans -- if you don’t realize the differences at the four major starting spots. As you saw in the first piece, quarterbacks and tight ends have much different scarcity questions and starting requirements. On top of that, depth varies widely among all four positions. Quarterback in a start-one quarterback league is just too deep to sink a lot of money into the position. On the other end of the spectrum, tight end is so top-heavy that it’s the best strategy to get one of the top guys or dive really deep into bargains. But running backs? They’re a unique creature all on their own. Not only is the position scarce in that there aren’t many true workhorse backs left in the NFL, but it’s also scarce in that a lot of leagues allow multiple flexes at the position so people push even harder to get as many relevant backs on their team as they can. The comfort level as each tier drops off the board makes fantasy auction drafters nervous like at no other position. This seems to be a part of a fantasy owner’s brain that is simply hardwired. As a result, you have less of a chance to grab the bargains at running back if you are not strict with when you are attacking which players. This isn’t always in your control, but then again, sometimes it is and that’s why you need some value possibilities to put your roster over the top. You are going to have to pay, or even overpay, for the most sought-after guys at running back so it is even more critical to find some valuable nuggets that can explode for your team.
One other thing to remember is that a “target” does not necessarily mean a low-priced player. It means you are seeking out a lower-priced player as compared to other players similarly ranked. Most often in the case of running backs you aren’t going to see many, if any, deals on top guys. Instead, look for a couple of dollars off the anticipated prices at the top of the position, and more than ever you should be looking to take advantage of players who have a role that may not be what you want but that could develop into a bigger role down the line. This isn’t always easy to anticipate, and the cheaper the running back the more you’ll be wrong, but when you’re right you’ll push your auction roster over the top.
ELITE TARGETS
Alvin Kamara – He is still going off the board as the fourth running back selected so obviously he’s very sought after, but this is purely a nomination play. If you read the piece on Inflection Points you know that there is a period of time at the beginning of a draft where you can often get a deal on whoever is nominated as people settle into the draft. Combine this with the strong effect that the order of nomination has on pricing, and your goal is to combine two auction effects that can score you a deal. If it is your turn to nominate a player and the top three (Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott), or even two of three, are still available then you should nominate Kamara. He is clearly fourth for most people on their draft sheets but his upside is certainly near the top of the position. However, his pricing should be a discount from the top guys provided he is nominated before they are gone. The combination of the two moves (nominating in the Settling In period, nominating before more elite options have set the market) will hopefully drive the price down artificially.
Kenyan Drake – It is easy to look at Drake’s ADP and wonder if he can hit the lofty draft price. His position in the top ten running backs drafted certainly carries a fair amount of risk. But when you are chasing an elite bargain it is going to be rare for all drafters to be wholly unexcited about a guy being drafted in the top ten. Instead, you need to look at the gap between where they can finish, the expectations of drafters in the room, and the ceiling the player possesses. Drake puts drafters in the difficult position of having to figure out his prospects with a small sample size from the end of 2019 after he was traded to Arizona. But boy that sample is enticing. Drake stepped in for the Cardinals’ Week 9 game against the 49ers and dropped 28.2 PPR fantasy points. He finished the final stretch of the season from Weeks 9 through 17 as the PPR RB4! This was with zero acclimation to the offense after a mid-season trade. You can understand why his price is where it is. Even so, there is plenty of meat on the bone based off his finish last year and his price. A deal for a top guy is defined differently, but Drake should be a target as a possible discount option who has as much upside as anyone near his price point.
CHASING WORKHORSE BACKS
Todd Gurley – The Falcons tried repeatedly to find their running game last year and they failed to do so. A year later and the only changes they’ve made are to jettison Devonta Freeman and add Todd Gurley. The likes of Ito Smith, Brian Hill, and Qadree Ollison aren’t going to seriously challenge Gurley for any meaningful amount of touches. The problem with Gurley goes without saying – he has a knee condition that is never going to get any better. He managed it in 2019, and the hope is he can do that again in 2020. The reason he’s a great target, though, is that every fantasy owner is aware of his condition and it’s created a skittish market for Gurley. The corresponding dip in his ADP is where you can pounce. Is Gurley risky? Yes. But the path to touches, and especially goal line touches, is as clear as it gets when you get into the territory he’s being drafted in. If you pair Gurley with a “market priced” running back and Gurley hits 1200 yards and 10+ touchdowns? That’s how you make a roster really pop.
Chris Carson – The only possible explanation for Carson going where he is (near the middle of the RB2 area) is that there isn’t much information about how he is progressing from his late-season injury. But Carson’s production to that point was RB1 material. He was the PPR RB10 at the end of Week 16 and he left that game in the first half. Rashaad Penny is likely to go on the PUP and the only competition for Carson is Carlos Hyde. Carson’s 1200 yards and 7 touchdowns are easily repeatable, and his reception totals were even a little low for expectations. For some reason, the room is cool on Carson. That’s where you strike.
LeVeon Bell – Who is really that excited about Bell at this point? Not many people. That’s why he makes the list. The perception of Bell has tipped the scales so strongly that his 300 touches is being left on the board in the perfect spot where you can get him as a great RB2 compliment to one of the higher-priced running backs, or even one of the guys on this target list. Bell finished 2019 as the PPR RB19 in points per game despite playing with abysmal quarterback play for part of the year. No, he isn’t the same player he was, but any volume concerns certainly aren’t from Frank Gore being in town. It could even be argued that lessening Bell’s workload a little might allow him to be more effective throughout the year. The Jets don’t have a true challenger to Bell seeing at least 250 carries and 40 receptions. Those numbers might not be exciting, but that’s not the point of the target. The point is to get a deal and pair him with high upside guys in your RB1 and RB3 slots. Bell fits the target model perfectly. The best way to land him is to wait a little while until some money has left the room, but then to get him nominated while the tier of guys like Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon etc. are still around. Bell looks far less exciting than those guys but carries the same opportunities. He’ll rise artificially in price if you wait too long, so there is a sweet spot to keep his price where you want it.
James Conner – A year ago at this time Conner was being debated as a first-round pick. If not first, he was certainly an early second-round selection. This season, following another injury-plagued year, he has dropped precipitously in draft slot. Yet before he was hurt he compiled nearly 18 PPR points per game and was the RB9 overall. Finding that kind of upside in a guy that you can get near the end of the RB2 range is not easy to do. Conner has quite the injury stigma so his discount is steep. The risk is baked into the price so he makes a solid target.
David Johnson – Johnson represents the last of the true workhorse options at the position. Following Johnson in ADP are guys like Mark Ingram, Devin Singletary, and Jonathan Taylor. In other words, once you pass Johnson you get into the guys who have a serious question about their role. Don’t forget the boomerang effect that was discussed in the previous Bidding Strategies article that says that if a player is the last one left in a tier he will be artificially expensive. Johnson is the poster boy for that issue this year. If he goes before those in his tier the caution about Johnson will keep his price down. But if he’s the last “workhorse” back on the board he’ll go for way more than he should. Johnson is no guarantee to recapture his old magic, but all he has to do is produce better than Carlos Hyde to deliver on his value. You aren’t getting Johnson as your fantasy cornerstone. Instead, target him as a complementary piece and if he delivers anywhere near the upside in this Texans’ offense then your starting lineup gets an RB2 with RB1 potential.
BIG FLAWS…BIG UPSIDE
Once you pass the RB2 tiers where there are guys who have a legitimate shot to take the lion’s share of their teams’ backfield touches there is a glut of guys who have a lot of upside but have a major flaw of some kind – they don’t catch passes, they are in a true timeshare, or they won’t get goal-line touches. The issue is, the fantasy community tends to go after some of these guys fairly hard because they are the shiny new toy that seems exciting. On the other hand, plenty of veterans occupy this draft space too and their role is defined even if it isn’t that of a true head of their team’s backfield. Auction drafters tend to cast the veterans aside and go for the flashier pick. The guys getting a lot of hype this year are rookies like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers, Taylor, and J.K. Dobbins. It’s fine to go after some of those guys, but you’ll pay a premium for any of those guys who all have a veteran or veterans in the backfield that make their fantasy prospects very uncertain. This is where you can find value in targets in that area because owners will have their eyes on sexier picks. Here are a few options with plenty of punch, but some admitted flaws.
Mark Ingram – Obviously nobody expects Ingram to finish as an RB1 again like he did last year, but Ingram is the perfect example of a guy who is fairly and accurately priced in a snake draft but won’t get as much attention in an auction. The problem is, if you want to get Ingram in a snake you’ll be passing on wide receivers in their sweet spot where guys like Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, Courtland Sutton, and Tyler Lockett are being drafted. Taking Ingram in a snake, therefore, has too high of an opportunity cost. But in an auction, it is unlikely anyone will care too much to fight too hard for him. There is obviously going to be some touchdown regression from Ingram’s 15 in 2019, but it’s not unreasonable to project him for half of those scores in an offense that runs the ball as well as Baltimore does. Understandably people are nervous about Dobbins, but if they weren’t you wouldn’t get this deal. Don’t overextend getting Ingram, but the most realistic scenario is that Baltimore uses Ingram plenty and then lets him go before the final year of his deal to feature Dobbins in 2021. Ingram isn’t going to necessarily dominate touches the entire year, but if he gets 1,000 yards total offense, about 225 touches, and 7-10 touchdowns he would slot nicely on an auction squad as a weekly flex who can finish as an RB2. Ideally, you want Ingram to be nominated about 60% of the way through the auction where people are saving their money for their favorite players they want to land before the draft ends. This causes people to clutch their money tighter and Ingram isn’t the type of player that moves the needle. It’s possible you steal him for a price in the neighborhood of $3-$5. That’s when you can shift money towards even more elite players or players you might be able to now overpay for. The combination is what auctions are made of.
Derrius Guice – You don’t need to go very far into Guice’s situation to figure it all out. The few times he’s touched the football for Washington he’s been electric. But he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. His price tag is that of a low-end RB3, and like Ingram, he is going in snake drafts in the zone where you want to be piling up wide receivers. But in an auction, Guice is the very type of guy discussed in April who can be a true league winner. Guice is the rare target where it’s advisable to even pay a few bucks more than you might if you find deals at other positions. His target status in this column is simply to point out that his injury past has more than killed any huge draft capital you might have to pony up. So if you want to get him for $9 but he ends up going for $12, if you can spare it, Guice should be one of those guys that you should try to work into your budget. The other encouraging thing is, after a devastating knee injury like he had prior to his rookie season it was not an outlier for Guice to have some other injuries the following year as he tried to get back to 100%. However, 2020 now marks two years since his big injury and he is a much stronger bet to be able to make it through the year. The Washington backfield is crowded, but the injury history and competition have Guice priced with plenty of ceiling to exploit.
Jordan Howard/Matt Breida – The Dolphins brought in the perfect combination of running backs for their backfield when they acquired Howard and Matt Breida. Howard should see plenty of work on the ground and near the goal line, and Breida should get some of the carries and a lot of receiving usage. The rub with both guys is that while they are very good when they stay on the field they each have a checkered injury history. Nevertheless, landing both in an auction shouldn’t be expensive as neither guy is very exciting on an offense that fantasy owners are ignoring to a degree. Howard should have a floor of six total touchdowns, and if he stays on the field he’ll far outperform the few dollars you can land him for in an auction. Both guys should be nominated as early as possible to take advantage of the lack of hype. It’s also important to find out if you are going to have both, or just one, of these guys as the draft goes on. Saving money to try and land the second one is no way to finish an auction strong. Find out early if you’ll own both for a reasonable price or move on.
James White – With Tom Brady gone fantasy users are fading White to a large degree. It would be very un-Patriots-like if they decided they weren’t going to use White to help a new quarterback transition into life in the New England offense. Consider 60 receptions as White’s floor, and this is strictly a PPR play, but wait as long as you can on White and see if you land him for a couple of dollars. White shouldn’t be counted on as a starter, but he’s the perfect bench option that strengthens your overall auction roster.
BARGAIN SHOPPING
Near the end of the draft, if you can, save enough money to put yourself in the driver’s seat to pay that extra dollar for a couple of players that could take off in the right situation. The unusual offseason this year due to the Covid-19 virus means that more than in any normal season it is important to try and take flyers on guys who have a path to relevancy from injury or touches that could grow. Pay attention to your own handcuffs first and foremost. If you own Ezekiel Elliott, then get Tony Pollard out there when budgets start to run low but *before* the running back pool is picked dry. This means people are less interested in a guy like Pollard when they can still get Damien Williams or KeShawn Vaughn. When their choices are Pollard or Adrian Peterson you’ll find yourself in a bidding war that isn’t necessary. Pay attention to your handcuffs more than ever this year, and if other owners ignore their own you can take advantage of that as well.
Some other situations that should be very cheap but yield production greater than the draft room thinks:
Philip Lindsay – All he does is try and live down the perception that he can’t carry the load at his size. But in his second year, he put up another 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns. Melvin Gordon will obviously get the chance to carry the ball plenty and might even get a large share of the receiving work, but Lindsay will still have stand-alone value. On top of that, Gordon does tend to get dinged up, and having Lindsay on your bench should that happen is a move that could pay off handsomely.
Darrell Henderson/Malcolm Brown – The hype is all for rookie Cam Akers in Los Angeles. But both Brown and Henderson have extensive experience in Sean McVay’s offense and it is very possible one of them seizes control of the situation should Akers disappoint. Grabbing both Rams backs behind Akers is a reasonable strategy late in auctions.
Boston Scott – The Eagles didn’t exactly go out and get help for Miles Sanders. Instead, they let Jordan Howard go, and signaled that they are happy with Scott behind Sanders. He caught 23 passes in the final four games of the season, a pace of 92 receptions in a full year. This is not to say he’ll catch 92 balls, but his PPR upside as a timeshare in the Philadelphia offense shouldn’t be ignored, especially not for one or two dollars in an auction.
Tevin Coleman – The rumors of a Jerrick McKinnon comeback are just rumors until he shows he is ready to go again in a game. Until then, drafters are far too down on Coleman’s chances. Shanahan will still rotate running backs and Coleman is still the #2 running back in a prolific rushing attack.
Justin Jackson/Joshua Kelley – Jackson is the guy to target, but it’s not a bad idea to grab both. Jackson is the incumbent, and at the risk of being repetitive, he should easily hold off a rookie in an offseason with almost no practice time due to the pandemic. Finding half of the Chargers backfield extremely late in an auction is something you should try to do.
Chase Edmonds/Ryquell Armstead/A.J. Dillon – Each of these guys is just an injury away from an expanded role. None of them have a really strong competitor to beat them out for #2 on the depth chart, and all have shown to be valued by the team for what they can do. Getting one or two of them requires patience once the season starts, but they are basically free in auctions and carry no risk should you have to move on once the games begin and you find yourself needing waiver room on your roster.
Landing running backs is easily the toughest task in any auction. The competition is fierce, everyone loves to spend money on them, and they are widely recognized as the most acceptable way to blow 25+% of your auction cap on one guy. This means that all your considerable game theory and strategy learned in the Mastering the Auction Draft Series will have to be brought to bear in order to land some elite talent with solid depth. Pay attention to these targets and nominate them at the right time to make your roster soar with floor and upside both. Your goal isn’t to land every guy on this list. Your goal is to pay market value for elite and/or safe players and then land a few of these targets along with them. The combination is what makes your team a championship contender.
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