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THREE REASONS MARK ANDREWS COULD FINISH 2020 AS THE BEST FANTASY TIGHT END

1. Andrews was not as far away from being the best tight end last year as one might think.

2. Hayden Hurst’s exit to Atlanta opens up additional targets.

3. The Ravens’ offense has growth potential.

SUMMARY

Many fantasy analysts see Mark Andrews as overvalued this year, based on his current average draft position. However, if one accepts last year's breakout as just the first taste of what's to come, he's still worth drafting at a higher price. Hayden Hurst, his only serious threat for snaps, was traded to Atlanta. And Nick Boyle is primarily a blocker. The Ravens’ offense, even though it was fantastic last year, can further improve. Andrews may not only match his draft cost but significantly exceed it.

NOT FAR FROM THE MARK

It's well understood Andrews made a major leap last year, but what's less appreciated is how close he was to the truly elite players at the position.

Let's be clear, Andrews is not in Travis Kelce's category, yet. Kelce outscored Andrews by 47 fantasy points last year, and even accounting for the extra game played was a full 2.1 points per game better. But Kelce benefited from a five-game span of increased target volume due to Tyreek Hill’s injury. Andrews could end up with a similarly dramatic increase in target volume of his own this year. Putting Kelce aside, Andrew was within striking distance of everyone else, including everyone's new darling Darren Waller.

Another interesting breakdown of the data shows just how close Andrews was to the precipice of tight end finishes. According to our Top Finishes tool, Andrews has 10 top-12 finishes last season, only three fewer than Kelce and tied for second with George Kittle. It is pretty amazing to consider that Andrews was the only one of those three splitting significant snaps and targets with another player at his position. With less competition for snaps, Andrews has a year-over-year upside that puts him on par with Kelce and Kittle.

THE LAST MANDREW STANDING

Hayden Hurst was traded to Atlanta in the offseason, opening up a significant number of snaps (468) and targets (39) to account for. It is a mistake to assume that these numbers will be completely static from year to year. However, given that the Ravens have not made sweeping changes to the coaching staff or their roster, these numbers give us a best-guess about how this offense prefers to distribute the football among its personnel. While Nick Boyle will not be completely ignored in the passing game, he is the preferred blocking option. We favor Andrews to pick up the majority of vacated targets because he's Lamar Jackson's most trusted target. Even one or two extra targets per game can make a big difference.

THE RAVENS COULD BE RAMPANT

Many are predicting regression for Lamar Jackson and the offense, but what if the opposite happens? After Patrick Mahomes II’ stellar 2018 campaign, pundits said there would be no way those numbers could be duplicated or improved upon by the second-year starter. Before his injury in 2019, Mahomes was on pace to do just that. There are many parallels between Mahomes of 2019 and Jackson of 2020. In the 2019 draft, the Chiefs made a small but important addition when they selected Mecole Hardman. While he did not make a seismic fantasy impact, his addition did open up yet another way for the offense to gash opponents. The Ravens improved their depth with running back J.K. Dobbins and receiver Devin Duvernay. Both possess skills that will diversify the game plan in ways that could take this offense to another level. Lamar Jackson is entering his second full year as a starter, just as Mahomes was. Regression to the mean is a statistical risk, but football is often an unpredictable sport and things rarely go according to the highest probability outcomes. If the offense did “grow the pie,” so to speak, Mark Andrews would get a larger piece of it, one that may be big enough to propel him to a top fantasy finish.

FINAL THOUGHTS

There is no disputing that Mark Andrews has a clear path to additional target volume this year with Hayden Hurst out of the mix. While many predict regression, it is possible that Lamar Jackson can take a step forward in terms of passing yardage and touchdowns. Andrews has clearly established himself as Jackson’s most trusted target. If that relationship continues to blossom this year and the offense morphs into a larger juggernaut than it was last year, there is a good chance that Andrews could be in the conversation with George Kittle and Travis Kelce to finish the year as the No. 1 fantasy tight end.

STATS AND PROJECTIONS

OTHER VIEWPOINTS

Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros offers the following thoughts on Andrews:

“Did you know that Andrews has still yet to have a game in the NFL where he's seen double-digit targets? Crazy, right? He did have 10 games with 7-8 targets in 2019, so he's inching closer, though the Ravens are still going to be a run-first team. Because of that, you're going to get some duds from the talented tight end. There were six games in 2019 where he posted single-digit PPR points, which is not great when he'll cost you a top-50 pick in drafts. We know Lamar Jackson's touchdown rate will drop, which means we'll need more targets for Andrews to live up to this draft spot. Losing Hayden Hurst as competition surely helps.”

Rotoballer’s Justin Carter can see a path to Andrews finishing as the top fantasy tight end:

“Andrews is likely going to be drafted as the TE4 because some of his 2019 numbers — the touchdowns, mostly — feel a little unsustainable on a team that’s as run-focused as the Ravens, but Andrews remains one of Jackson’s top options, and with fellow 2018 draftee tight end Hayden Hurst traded to the Falcons, Andrews should see a significant increase to his 41 percent snap rate from last year, so even if the touchdowns come down, the overall receiving numbers could wind up improving due to Andrews getting more opportunities. Not as safe a fantasy option as a few other guys at the position, Andrews should still be one of the first tight ends taken and his overall ceiling is as high as anyone at this position. It would be a little bit of a shock if he finished as the TE1, but not too much of a shock.”

Ryan Weisse of The Fantasy Footballers makes the case for Mark Andrews to finish number one:

“My favorite part of this theory is that it puts Andrews on top if he only takes half of Hurst’s vacated work. What if he takes more? What if he cuts into Boyle’s work? The sky is the limit for Mark Andrews in 2020 and the future. There were a lot of the numbers in this article so let me summarize succinctly: Mark Andrews played the 3rd most snaps on his own team and lost targets to less talented TEs in 2019. One of those TEs is gone and Andrews is set to improve as a player in his 3rd year in the league. He will play more, he will catch more, and he will score more. Mark Andrews can be the fantasy TE1 in 2020.”

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