Eliminator Pool: Week 17

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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, both Dave Larkin and I have written the “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. This has been a very popular feature, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest previously with a preseason strategy article, which describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Once again, another big upset came in Week 16 with the Jets winning for the second week in a row - and who thought anyone would make that statement this year - which cost six staffers a victory last week. Adding the Cleveland loss to upsets of Arizona (San Francisco, two staff losses) and Houston (Cincinnati) made for nine losses for the staff, the worst result so far for the year. Overall though the staff has fared quite well this season, losing just 53 games across 22 staffers (299-53 record, 85% win rate), with five people still in the hunt for either a perfect season (Aaron Rudnicki and Jeff Haseley) or a tie at the top with one loss (Will Grant, Alex Miglio and Matt Bitonti). There is no doubt that 2020 has been a wild and crazy NFL season, and there is still one wild Sunday slate to go. It is going to be highly entertaining come Sunday, so let's start to take a deeper dive and try and help everyone win their pool.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

It is New Year's Week in the NFL (Week 17), which is all played on Sunday (January 3rd) so that everyone has equal footing for the Wild Card round next week. Having a full slate of 16 games sounds like a games to select from, but with 16 picks in the rear view mirror and several teams likely to rest players (at least Kansas City and possibly Tampa Bay, so far), the list shrinks quickly. There are nine games where the point spread is at least 5.5 points, so let's take a quick look at all of those contests for the final week of the regular season:

• Indianapolis (vs. Jacksonville, -14 to -14.5, -1000 to -1300 Money Line)
• Baltimore (at Cincinnati, -11.5, -700 to -750 Money Line)
• Tennessee (at Houston, -7.5, -357 to -380 Money Line)
• **Cleveland (vs. Pittsburgh, -6.5 to -7, -305 to -335 Money Line)
• New Orleans (at Carolina, -6.5 to -7, -280 to -335 Money Line)
• Tampa Bay (vs. Atlanta, -6 to -6.5, -270 to -315 Money Line)
• Minnesota (at Detroit, -6 to -6.5, -260 Money Line)
• Green Bay (at Chicago, -5.5, -238 to -250 Money Line)
• Seattle (at San Francisco [in Arizona], -4.5 to -5.5, -220 to -240 Money Line)

**Cleveland's line has now moved from -6.5 to -7 all the way up to -9 or -10 (-450 to -500), now that the Steelers have acknowledged that Ben Roethlisberger will be sitting out Week 17. Pittsburgh has won the AFC North and will be the second or third seed in the AFC. Resting players for the week (and knowing that a playoff game is six or seven days away) is far more important than pushing for one spot higher on the seeding chart, especially with very little home-field advantage this season. That puts the Browns as a top pick for Week 17 as Cleveland needs a win to get into the postseason while Pittsburgh does not care about this contest.

Several of these teams have something to play for this week, which is important to investigate in the final week. Indianapolis, Baltimore, Tennessee, and Cleveland are all in "win and get in" situations for the playoffs, and only the Browns are facing a tough battle against the Steelers in a bitter rivalry game. While Pittsburgh may appear to be not playing for much (seeding) and might consider resting players as they are certain to play the following week, knocking Cleveland out of the playoffs will bring joy to the Steelers. New Orleans, Green Bay, and Seattle all have the top seed and the bye that comes with it at stake, so all three teams will be motivated. Tampa Bay is unlikely to have anything really at risk as they will either be the fifth or sixth seed in the NFC (and if the Rams are minus Jared Goff, Tampa Bay should feel good about getting the higher spot). Arizona-Los Angeles Rams just missed the cut this week mostly because of Goff being out with a thumb injury, and the Cardinals must win and have Green Bay beat Chicago to get into the postseason. The only game without much motivation at all on this list is Vikings-Lions, but given how poorly Detroit looked last week against Tampa Bay, Minnesota is likely to walk over Detroit. No matter how it plays out, Week 17 will certainly bring drama and be interesting for all Eliminator and Survivor pools to close the regular season.

As for the actual staff pool, it looks to be coming down to either Aaron Rudnicki or Jeff Haseley, who are both fighting for a perfect season and the chance to get at least half of this year's title:

Aaron Rudnicki: Aaron wisely avoided the trap of the Browns last week, going with Chicago instead. That smart (or lucky) move gives him three things - a 16-0 record, a shot at the title, and also Cleveland as a remaining pick. This is not an easy decision as Browns-Steelers is always a highly contested rivalry game, and the Browns did not look good against the Jets last week. Granted they were down several players due to COVID inactives, but going with the Browns is not a lock by any means. Minnesota is also left as an option, but the Vikings may already have their bags packed and ready to head home with nothing to play for in the season finale. All that said, Aaron has a shot at the title and a perfect record, and his clearest path my be Cleveland.

Jeff Haseley: Jeff also landed on the Bears last week, ensuring that both himself and Aaron would be tied going into Week 17. Now Jeff has a very tough decision on his pick as he has none of the larger favorites available. Could he go with Washington in a must-win game? Or will he decide to go with another team in a must-win spot with Arizona against a Rams team that will be without their starting quarterback? Then again, Kyle Murray is also banged up. No easy picks here for Jeff this week either.

Since both Aaron and Jeff are looking at some tough calls, the three staffers with just one loss - Matt Bitonti, Will Grant, and Alex Miglio - could all come into play. Matt has both Minnesota and Tampa Bay at his disposal for the week, but the Buccaneers may be resting players and the Vikings may lack motivation. Alex also has Minnesota, and that may be his top choice. Will looks to be in the best shape as he remarkably still has the Seahawks left, so taking Seattle with none of the other Top 5 staffers having them available makes Will the dark horse to create a possible 3-way tie at 16-1 for the staff league title.

Of course, anything can happen, but if you are still alive or just a game off the pace in your Survivor/Eliminator Pool, it is important to take a look at the top teams and who they have left to choose from, if only to differentiate from their picks. The only way to ensure that is to take a team that they have used already. More on that later in my personal pick comments.

Given that Green Bay all 22 staffers have used them), Baltimore (21), Indianapolis (20), Seattle (19), New Orleans (18), Tampa Bay (18), Cleveland (18), and Tennessee (17) have all been selected quite a bit, this looks like a week where many will try and once again use a borderline playoff team in a good spot on the schedule to get a win in the final week. Predicting picks this week is very tricky, but the staff has plenty of picks left for the Vikings (11), and only eight staffers have used Arizona, who will also likely be in a must-win position. It is almost impossible to predict the picks for the entire group, so the best expectations are likely a scattered allotment of the top teams if anyone still has them available (Ravens, Colts, Seahawks, Saints, Buccaneers, Browns, and Titans).

The picks are coming in late on a Wednesday night on the Eve of New Year's Eve, and we now know the games to watch to see who will win the Footballguys' Eliminator Pool for this season. Aaron decided to fade the Browns despite Cleveland having so much to play for and the Steelers not appearing to be ready to get up for this game (and both teams could possibly face one another next weekend as well in the playoffs). Aaron went with Minnesota, as did Matt Bitonti and Alex Miglio. Will Grant did go with Seattle as expected, while Jeff Haseley went with an interesting pick of the Chargers (at Kansas City, -3.5, -185 to -195 Money Line) against a Kansas City team that is also resting starters. All five staffers who are in the hunt provided comments below, so read on as to why they made their choices for the season finale. If Minnesota wins, Aaron secures at least a tie for the championship. If the Chargers win, Jeff Haseley is in that same boat - and if both teams win, they tie for the championship. If both happen to stumble and the Seahawks win as expected, the league ends in a three-way tie with Will Grant tying both Aaron and Jeff at 16-1. Week 17 drama is coming on Sunday!

Nearly all of the picks are submitted late Wednesday, and given the New Year's holiday, there is no need to wait. The last straggler pick has no impact on the overall results, but the theme for Week 17 is clear - take whatever you can get. Only Minnesota (six picks) received more than two votes this week, and that is nearly entirely because all the good teams have been picked already. Three teams (New Orleans, Tennessee, and Las Vegas) received two picks while a record nine unique picks are on this final round of picks - each of Arizona, Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and the Los Angeles Chargers were chosen once. With a grand total of 13 teams selected for Week 17 and with four different possible first-place finishes or ties (either Aaron, Jeff, both alone, or joined by Will), this will truly be a wild and interesting Sunday to close out the regular season. Thanks as always for joining us and we will see you next week with our final results.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator/Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Haseley: My Week 17 pick comes down to the New York Giants (vs Dallas), Arizona (at the Rams), Las Vegas (at Denver), the Los Angeles Chargers (at Kansas City), or New England (vs. the New York Jets).

I'm hesitant to play New England against the Jets. The Patriots are trending down while the Jets are trending up. I don't trust New England enough to take care of business. I feel like the team just wants to end the season. The Jets will want to end the year on a high note and any time they can stick it to Belichick is a good thing.

Starting Las Vegas at Denver is decent, but the outcome is anyone's guess. The Raiders' defense has been horrible lately, allowing 35, 43, 28, 44, 30, and 26 points in the last six games.

Arizona is fighting for a playoff spot, but Kyler Murray (leg) is iffy to play and even if he does, the Rams' defense will be ready for a gimpy Murray. Pass on Arizona.

I could take the Giants at home vs Dallas, but Daniel Jones isn't exactly overflowing with confidence or success lately. The Giants have lost three straight and are limping into a pivotal Week 17 matchup needing a win and a Washington loss. My lean is Dallas in this game, and they are not an option.

So that leaves the Chargers on the road at Kansas City, who have locked up the #1 seed. Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce may be in street clothes for this meaningless game. Justin Herbert nearly took out the Chiefs in his first career start. My guess is that he's hungry to get that win, even in a Week 17 situation such as this. Los Angeles has won three straight and four of their last five. They will want to finish on a high note and they could easily do so against a toothless Chiefs team. Los Angeles is even favored in this game by 3.5 points, on the road no less - so the Chargers are my pick.

There is not much doubt that Aaron will be taking Minnesota against Detroit, but no Dalvin Cook makes things more interesting. Anything can happen in Week 17. My thought process is if I win, I will share the crown with Aaron because I don't see Detroit winning anytime soon.

The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

Aaron Rudnicki: My options were pretty limited this week. The Vikings are a 7-point favorite over the Lions though, so I went with them. The New York Jets don't seem to be the same pushovers they were earlier this year and the Patriots are not playing well so I don't trust them on a short week. Also, I can't really trust Washington or Dallas given how weak and inconsistent they are. The Lions seem like a mess so hopefully, the Vikings have enough left to take care of them here.

The Pick: Minnesota Vikings

Will Grant: Apparently all the holiday cheer distracted me last week. I kept writing I had New Orleans when I meant Seattle. For Week 17 you are looking with teams who are motivated to win or playing against teams like Jacksonville who have nothing to play for. Seattle still has an outside shot at getting the bye week and would improve their playoff seeding if either Green Bay or New Orleans loses. While beating a division rival is somewhat of a motivation for SF, they really don't have any reason to go all out this week either. Seattle is also one of only 3 teams that I have left who are expected to win. The Raiders don't have any motivation and Washington may need to use one of the cardboard fans at QB this week. Go Seahawks!

The Pick: Seattle Seahawks

Alex Miglio: Whatever possessed me to pick Jacksonville in Week 3? My lack of faith in my Dolphins was disturbing. Had I picked Miami, it’s likely the rest of my picks would shake out the same and I’d be without blemish. Alas.

For weeks I had been eyeballing New England for my final pick. Then the Jets started winning. With both teams suddenly headed in opposite directions, the Patriots are off the table. Even though my other choices aren’t much better, Minnesota seems like both a good pick and a potential differentiator this week. Let it ride!

The Pick: Minnesota Vikings

Matt Bitonti: My final pick is Minnesota to take care of business against a hurting Detroit Lions team on the road. Matthew Stafford is fighting at least two major injuries (thumb, ribs) prior to hopping off the field last week against Tampa Bay with an ankle injury. He may have seen his last snap as a Lion and Chase Daniel did not inspire confidence in relief. The other teams considered were Tampa Bay (Falcons looked feisty as a dome team outside last week), the New York Jets (they are somehow hot, the New England Patriots are on a short week coming off of Monday Night Football), and finally Arizona against a Jared Goff-less Rams. These are all acceptable coinflips, but I don't believe in Tampa Bay's consistency, New York's offense, or Arizona's defense.

The Pick: Minnesota Vikings

Jeff Pasquino: Even though I am out of the running, I am still looking to finish strong with just two blemishes on my record. The Saints are pushing for a top seed and a bye, and also to get their passing game in better order. Alvin Kamara certainly had the ground game rolling last week, so look for New Orleans to win in Carolina and secure at least the second spot in the NFC.

The Pick: New Orleans

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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