Eliminator Pool: Week 14

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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, both Dave Larkin and I have written the “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. This has been a very popular feature, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest previously with a preseason strategy article, which describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

It was a wild Week 13, not just for the schedule makers but also for the fantastic finishes. The eight staffers who were on the Raiders were on the edge of their seats until Greg Williams' unbelievable decision to play man defense instead of a prevent formation for the Jets' secondary led to a miraculous comeback for Las Vegas. Minnesota survived in overtime to rescue four more staffers' picks, but the other four who chose Seattle at home against the Giants on Sunday were not so lucky. Those four losses really impacted the standings as now just four Footballguys writers - Jordan McNamara, Sigmund Bloom, Aaron Rudnicki, and Jeff Haseley - remain perfect on the season. Four games remain for the 2020 campaign, and anything can happen (and often does). Every NFL team is back in play the rest of the year, so let's take a look at the possible picks for NFL Week 14.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

Week 14 is here already, and for the rest of the season, all 32 NFL teams will be in action. That means that there are 16 games each week to select from, but with 13 picks in the rearview mirror, the level of difficulty continues to increase. With a full slate of 16 games to select from, there are usually at least a few games to look hard at, even here in December. Similar to last week, it is once again rather remarkable that nearly half of the slate - 7 of 16 games - have teams listed as favorites by six points or more. Here's a quick rundown:

• Seattle (vs. NY Jets, -13.5, -714 to -900 Money Line)
• Green Bay (at Detroit, -7.5, -360 to -400 Money Line)
• Tennessee (at Jacksonville, -7.5, -333 to -360 Money Line)
• Kansas City (at Miami, -7.5, -333 to -350 Money Line)
• New Orleans (at Philadelphia, -6.5 to -7, -303 to -335 Money Line)
• Tampa Bay (vs. Minnesota, -6.5, -286 to -305 Money Line)
• LA Rams (vs. New England, -6, -255 to -280 Money Line)

With seven games to choose from and several big spreads and Money Lines, there is a large list to pick from for Week 14. Given that Green Bay (all 22 staffers have used them), Kansas City (20), the Rams (19) the Saints (16) have all been selected quite a bit, this looks like a week where many will try and once again use a borderline playoff team in a good spot on the schedule to get a win and move on to the final three weeks. Expect a lot of selections for Tampa Bay (nine staffers still have them left), Seattle (10), and especially Tennessee (17) once all the picks are in for the week.

The picks are coming in late on a Wednesday night and the results are rather close to the prediction once again. Tennessee is the top choice amongst the staff with nine selections, with Seattle a close second with seven. Two staffers each chose the Saints and Tampa Bay, while two unique picks came in for Kansas City (Will Grant) and Carolina (Andrew Garda). The Panthers are an interesting pick, but it could be a very savvy pivot given that Denver is not playing well and the Panthers (-3.5, -170 to -189 Money Line) are coming off of their bye week and should get Christian McCaffrey should also return to action. Six different teams are in the mix this week for the picks, so once again it will be interesting to see how it all plays out by Tuesday morning.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator/Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: If a phrase could capture Week 13, it would be "I hate New York". First, the Jets inexplicably played the worst version of prevent defense in recent history and blew a four-point lead with seconds to play, and then the Giants went on and completed the NY-NY double-double with their upset over the Seahawks. So in just a few hours, I went from "Game Theory expert" to a has-been with two losses in the pool over the past three weeks. Such is life in Survivor pools.

As I press on to try and finish with no further losses, I see that I have fewer and fewer strong options at my disposal. Looking at the Titans, they are in a strong spot this week (at Jacksonville) and only next week (vs. Detroit) is a viable option to use the Titans the rest of the way with two tough games (at Green Bay, at Houston) to close out the regular season. Looking ahead is always dangerous, but I think I can find another team next week as a reasonable option, so this is the right time to take Tennessee against a Jaguars team that is playing better than their record but should still struggle with a probable playoff team in the Titans.

The Pick: Tennessee Titans

Jordan McNamara: One of the toughest picks of the year. I do not have a non-divisional home favorite, which is a go-to strategy for me. New Orleans is a non-divisional road favorite, with Taysom Hill starting at quarterback against a first-time starter in Jalen Hurts for Philadelphia. This has high variance written all over it, which makes it the lowest confidence pick of the year for me.

The Pick: New Orleans Saints

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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