Eliminator Pool: Week 11

Photo: Imagn Images

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, both Dave Larkin and I have written the “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. This has been a very popular feature, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest previously with a preseason strategy article, which describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Week 10 was almost a perfect week for the staff, as the Packers, Saints, Buccaneers, and Raiders all took care of business. Only the Eagles (sorry Jason Wood) tripped up the group and kept the staff from a clean sweep. This is the downside of going for a sleeper in a given week, but if the Packers had tripped up and Philadelphia had won as expected, he would have been in a great spot. Nine staffers are still perfect on the year with half of the season already played out, but as mentioned many times, it gets tougher and tougher every week. Week 11 is a tricky one as it is the last week with four teams on a bye, so the level of difficulty is high once again. Let's take a look and see what NFL Week 11 will have in store for the staff.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

Week 11 is the final week of four teams being on a bye (Tampa Bay and Carolina are both off in Week 13, ending all byes), so this is the last week for only 14 games to consider. Six contests have spreads over four points and five of those are at six or more, starting with the biggest line of the week with the 9-0 Steelers visiting Jacksonville. Pittsburgh (-10, -435 to -550 Money Line) should roll over the Jaguars, but I still remember several upsets that Jacksonville has pulled over the Steelers. That does not matter this week though, as it makes a ton of sense to take Pittsburgh - but most people are likely to have already used the Steelers. Only 7 of 22 staffers in this pool still have them as an option, so there are likely to be several picks from the next tier of four games, starting with Minnesota (-7, -333 to -340 Money Line) hosting Dallas. The Vikings come off of a big win on Monday Night Football in Chicago to face a rested Dallas team, but the Cowboys are not good at all this year and their defense is highly suspect against the run. Look for Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison to tear it up against Dallas in Minneapolis this week. Kansas City (-6.5 to -7, -330 to -340 Money Line) heads to Las Vegas and they are not happy how the Raiders not only beat them in Kansas City back in Week 5 but also that the Raiders drove their buses around the stadium in a "victory lap" before heading to the airport. This is a "must avoid" game in a heated divisional rivalry, so think about another game like the Chargers (-8.5, -385 to -425 Money Line) hosting the winless New York Jets in Los Angeles this week. Not much needs to be said about taking the Chargers this week, but one last bigger line game is Baltimore (-6.5, -265 to -286 Money Line) at home against the Titans. Tennessee must make the tough trip to Maryland to face a Ravens team looking to rebound after a lackluster loss in Foxboro to the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. The sixth and final game with a favorite with a Money Line over -200 is New Orleans (-4.5 to -5, -220 to -227 Money Line), who host the Falcons in an NFC South clash. The Saints will be starting Jameis Winston with Drew Brees (ribs) out for several weeks. The divisional contest could be high scoring with Matt Ryan and Atlanta coming off of a bye week and both teams prone to giving up big plays and turnovers behind Winston. Expect this list of six contests to dominate most Survivor and Eliminator pool contests in Week 11.

The picks are in here on Wednesday night, and the top pick is the Los Angeles Chargers with 13 of 22 possible picks, followed by Minnesota (6) and Pittsburgh (2). Clearly, the call for the Chargers is going with a home team against the winless Jets, as 13 of the 15 staffers that still had Los Angeles as an option went in that direction. Pittsburgh was only available to a handful of staffers, but two went with the Steelers in Jacksonville. The second-most popular pick of the Vikings was a good middle ground, as only one staffer (Matt Carey) had used Minnesota. Matt was in quite the bind, having used all three of these teams, so he had to go with a unique selection of Baltimore at home against Tennessee. Four teams are in the mix this week for the picks, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out this Sunday.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator/Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: I saved the Packers for Week 10 and it paid off nicely, but looking back to Week 9 - this is the week I wish I still had Pittsburgh. I used the Steelers two weeks ago on the road in Dallas in a game where Pittsburgh had to rally to pull off the 24-19 comeback, but no matter. The reason I felt that it was okay to do this was that I saw that the Vikings were hosting Dallas in Week 11. Yes, Minnesota has a short week after a rivalry game in Chicago on Monday Night Football and the Cowboys will be well rested after a bye, but Dallas still has a bad offensive line and a defense that is more sieve-like against the run than most other NFL defenses. Minnesota should have no issue running the ball all game and at worst setting up Dan Bailey for plenty of field goals against his former team. The Vikings are looking to get to 5-5 and have a shot at a run for a Wild Card if they get hot down the stretch, but first, they have to win the games that they are supposed to win - starting with a victory at home over Dallas. I think they get the job done by double-digits on Sunday.

The Pick: Minnesota Vikings

Andrew Garda: After being scared by what should have been a slam dunk Green Bay game, I am heading back to home and the Jets. I don't expect the San Dieg-er Los Angeles Chargers to be great but the Jets are awful, crossing the country and also awful.

I'm not messing around - I am back on the "pick a New York team, they suck" eliminator bandwagon.

The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

Darin Tietgen: I'm also on the Bolts Bandwagon... or I guess the "vs. Jets" bandwagon. Plus the Chargers don't have a game I really like left on the schedule, so this is a perfect time to burn them.

The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

Clayton Gray: I really wanted to pick the Chargers for two reasons: 1. That LA team is better than their record, and 2. That New York team is as bad as their record. But there were two reasons to keep me off of that game: 1. That LA team finds ways to lose, and 2. It's really hard to go winless in the NFL. This feels like a trap! So instead, I went with the Vikings. Dalvin Cook should shred the Dallas defense at will, and Minnesota's defense should be good enough to at least slow Andy Dalton down -- yeah, that's a low bar to get over.

The Pick: Minnesota Vikings

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

Follow @JeffPasquino