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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, both Dave Larkin and I have written the “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. This has been a very popular feature, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest previously with a preseason strategy article, which describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Most of the staff survived last week, as many rode the Cowboys' victory at just the right time. With Dallas' loss of Dak Prescott for the season, saving the Cowboys for later would have been a costly decision. Sad to think that one of those four NFC East teams is going to be in the postseason, but at least there are seven spots this year. The only upset loss went to Chad Parsons, who was on Kansas City at home against the Raiders. Las Vegas has played teams tough all year and they were up to the challenge on the road in Kansas City, knocking off the defending Super Bowl champs for their first loss in over a year. That was the only loss for the staff, and there are still 13 staff members that are 5-0 on the season. As we enter mid-October, bye weeks come up every week for the next six weeks, which will only compound the challenge for the group. Once again the level of difficulty will increase, so let's take a look and see what NFL Week 6 will have in store for the staff.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

Taking a quick look at the lines for Week 6, the choices are far less diverse. There are only 14 games this week with four teams on a bye (Seattle, Las Vegas, New Orleans and the Los Angeles Chargers), which starts to create the funnel of choices. Looking at the matchups for Week 6, there are just four games with a spread according to Vegas of 4 or more points: Baltimore (-7.5 at Philadelphia, Money Line of -345 to -360), Indianapolis (-7.5 to -8 vs. Cincinnati, -360 to -370), Miami (-8 to -8.5 at home against the New York Jets, -375 to -400) and the New England Patriots (-9 to -9.5, vs. Denver, -400 to -410). These four teams are the most likely picks for Week 6, with all four favored to win and expected to win 75-80% of the time. Expect the picks amongst the staff to be spread across these four franchises (and some have used the Colts already), so consider using one of these four teams if you are looking to stick with the pack.

The picks are due in late on Wednesday night, and many of the picks did land on the four teams mentioned earlier. Miami is the top pick for the staff with over 75% (17 of 22) on the Dolphins to beat the Jets in Week 6. Even though it is a divisional matchup in the AFC East, Miami is at home and the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league. New England is a distant second with just two staffers on the Patriots as they return to action after an unscheduled bye week in Week 5. New England is heavily favored against Denver this Sunday, so they also seem like a reasonable and safe pick. Three (very) unique picks wrap up the week with one staffer each on Indianapolis, Atlanta, and the New York Giants. Yes, you read that right. The winless Falcons are at the 1-4 Vikings this week with Minnesota favored by four points, but the Vikings are likely to be without Dalvin Cook. Atlanta could certainly pull off the upset here but it feels like a big risk to take in October. There is an even stranger choice with Justin Bonnema's pick of the New York Giants. Granted the winless Giants are favored at home against the Washington Football Team, but taking an 0-5 team to get their first win on the season is a bold choice. (Read on to see the comments below on why some of these contrarian picks were made this week!) Some very interesting picks in Week 6 here with six different teams chosen, which certainly could make things interesting come next Tuesday in another exciting week in the Footballguys' Eliminator Pool.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator/Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: Things continue to go well here with my picks this season, so I hope to keep that positive momentum with my choice in Week 6. I had worked on a season-long plan a few weeks back, but a lot of that has blown up with the NFL schedule changes and several teams just not turning out how I expected them to play this season. Back in September Week 6 looked to be a tricky one, and I had planned on using the Steelers (at home against Cleveland) or Baltimore (at Philadelphia). The Browns have played much better than I anticipated, so there is no way I would want to take Pittsburgh at home in a divisional rivalry. The Ravens look like a solid pick even on the road at the Eagles, but Philadelphia is just one of those teams that plays up (or down) to the level of their opposition. This week feels like a good week to try and steal a game, and although I am looking at another divisional matchup again this week - usually a no-no - but fading a really bad team in favor of a big home favorite feels right. The team I am using for Week 6 is the Miami Dolphins, hosting the woefully bad Jets in south Florida. New York may have purged LeVeon Bell to try and right their locker room, but the team is far from a unified group and the Dolphins have been playing extremely well despite their 2-3 record. Miami's three losses are all against likely playoff teams (at New England Week 1, vs. Buffalo Week 2, vs. Seattle Week 4) and they are coming off of a great win on the road in San Francisco. The Jets are, well, the Jets - and they are competing with the Giants for the worst team in the league. Fading the Jets and taking the home team Miami Dolphins feels like a solid pick, and I do not see a better opportunity to use Miami the rest of the season (perhaps only Week 13 at home against the Bengals). Miami will look to get the home win and move to 3-3 before their Week 7 bye. Take a second-tier team while you can in a great spot to get you a win, as winning 17 games in a full season is very hard if you cannot find a few non-playoff teams to get you a victory. Take them when you can get them.

The Pick: Miami Dolphins

Andrew Garda: My general strategy this year has been to pick against the Jets and Giants as both teams are genuinely awful. The problem this week is they are playing divisional foes and that is often dicey. So I briefly flirted with Baltimore vs a bad Eagles team but ended up staying with my strategy and chose the Dolphins over the Jets. Looking at the Jets, especially with Bell gone, I see a disheartened team. And as Miami is favored by more than a touchdown, I feel like Vegas is on my side.

Stay picking against the New York teams and I think you'll do well.

The Pick: Miami Dolphins

Jason Wood: I am picking Atlanta because Minnesota isn't a good team, either. Dalvin Cook is likely out, and the Falcons will be rejuvenated after the house cleaning. It's obviously a longer-shot call, but picking favorites every week doesn't usually lead to winning a season-long eliminator.

The Pick: Atlanta Falcons

Justin Bonnema: It's definitely not a safe play but looking at their schedule, it's hard to see a better time than now to take the Giants. They're slight favorites at home after nearly upsetting the Dallas Cowboys last week. In fact, they're a few late-game failures away from being 3-2 on the season, despite how poorly Daniel Jones has played. Of course, bad teams find ways to lose. This week, they'll be favored for the first time all year as they take on a bad Washington team that also finds ways to lose. If Jones can put together an above-mediocre game for once, the Giants will come away with their first win of the season.

The Pick: New York Giants

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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