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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, both Dave Larkin and I have written the “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. This has been a very popular feature, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest previously with a preseason strategy article, which describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Most of the staff was on the Colts, and Indianapolis did not let them down. Perhaps it is more accurate to say that the Jets did not disappoint, as the Colts took an interception back for a touchdown on New York's opening drive and the rout was on for Indianapolis. The rest of the staff had to sweat nearly every pick, as only Pittsburgh came through with a win against Houston at home for the rest of the group. Starting with Jacksonville's loss to Miami on Thursday and then two late Sunday afternoon losses by Arizona (against Detroit) and the Chargers (vs. Carolina), the staff struggled to find wins in Week 3 and took a combined six losses for the week. That reduced the number of staffers with a perfect 3-0 start to 14, or just under two-thirds of the staff in the pool. The staff's combined record stands at 52-14, just under 80% correct - a rough start in a contest that only increases in difficulty with every passing week. As mentioned before, it is a marathon and not a sprint. Let's press on and see what NFL Week 4 will have in store for the staff.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

Taking a quick look at the lines for Week 4, there are only seven contests where the lines are six points or more, which implies that the picks for the staff (and in most Survivor / Eliminator pools) will come from these seven contests. The two most likely picks for the group look to be Baltimore (the Ravens are favored by 13.5 points as they visit the Washington Football Team) and the Los Angeles Rams (hosting the New York Giants as a 12.5 to 13 point favorite). Baltimore is on a short week and coming off of a disappointing loss to the Chiefs on Monday Night Football and will be on the road, which makes the Rams the most likely choice. Los Angeles returns home after two East Coast contests (at Philadelphia, at Buffalo) and a very tough loss to the Bills on Sunday, so Sunday's home game against the Giants appears to be a perfect "get right" opportunity to get back on the winning track. The other five games with bigger favorites are Seattle (-6.5 at Miami), Tampa Bay (-7.5 vs. the Chargers), Kansas City (-6.5 to -7 at home against New England), San Francisco (-6.5 at home against Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football) and Green Bay (-7 to -7.5 as they host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football). The 49ers and Packers look to be strong contrarian picks in Week 4 as both teams should take care of business at home in the national television spotlights.

The picks are in late on Wednesday night, and the assumption is correct once again - most of the staff decided to go with the Los Angeles Rams, as they received 13 of the 22 Week 4 selections. Baltimore received three votes, a distant second for a big favorite who might be facing a trap game after a tough home loss on Monday to Kansas City. The Ravens take a short road trip down I-95 to Washington, but Baltimore is favored to win by nearly two touchdowns on Sunday. Three staffers decided to roll those contrarian dice and take Baltimore, as did two other staffers who chose to go with Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers host the Los Angeles Chargers and are favored by a touchdown as Tampa Bay hosts the Chargers, who are faced with both a long trip across the country and an early kickoff. Four staffers round out the week with unique picks as Matt Carey hopes to start the week with a win on Thursday Night Football with Denver hosting the Jets. Sean Settle picked Dallas (-4.5 vs. Cleveland) which feels like a risky pick, while Justin Bonnema is also taking a road less traveled with the Saints (-4.5) in Detroit for Week 4. Devin Knotts is going for a home win by the Packers on Monday Night Football against Atlanta to close out the week. Even with a clear majority of the staff on the Rams, seven different teams comprise the group's Week 4 selections, so it could easily be another exciting week in the Footballguys' Eliminator Pool.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator/Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: So far so good through three weeks, so let's see if we can keep it going. I focused on the biggest favorites - the Rams, Baltimore, Green Bay, and San Francisco - but I decided to wait for a healthier version of the 49ers and also to save Green Bay for a much tougher week during the byes. Baltimore is coming off of a very disheartening home loss to the Chiefs on Monday, and a short road game could be a trap in Washington. That leaves Los Angeles, as the Rams head back home to host the hapless New York Giants. This should be a walk in the park for Los Angeles as the Giants were just trounced at home against San Francisco, a team that is about as banged up as you can get in September. The Rams get a weak opponent at home, and they simply must take care of business to keep pace in the toughest division in football.

The Pick: Los Angeles Rams

Jeff Haseley: I'm taking a break from whichever opponent is playing the Jets because I'm not sure the Broncos and Brett Rypien will beat New York this week. My pick is the Rams at home vs the Giants who have scored fewer touchdowns (3) than the Jets (4). Two of those scores went to Darius Slayton, who will likely be covered by Jalen Ramsey. The Rams are favored by 12.5. That's good enough for me to hope they win by 1 point.

The Pick: Los Angeles Rams

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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