Eliminator Pool: Week 3

Photo: Imagn Images

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, both Dave Larkin and I have written the “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. This has been a very popular feature, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest previously with a preseason strategy article, which describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Even though the staff was diversely spread out across 10 different teams, the group did amazingly well in Week 2, winning on every pick except for one. Only Matt Carey's choice of the Vikings over the Colts on the road kept the staff from going a perfect 22-0 last week. That 21-1 record moved the group to a combined 36-8 on the young season, but as mentioned before, it is a marathon and not a sprint. Week 3 will have its own set of challenges to be sure, and the large number of injuries across the league after just two weeks will only add to the level of difficulty. Let's press on and see what NFL Week 3 will have in store for the staff.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

Taking a quick look at the lines for Week 3, there are only seven contests where the lines are six points or more, which implies that the picks for the staff (and in most Survivor/Eliminator pools) will come from these seven contests. The odds-on favorite to be the top pick should be the Indianapolis Colts, as they are favored by more than 10 points at home against the hapless New York Jets. Other teams likely to be under consideration are the Patriots (-6 hosting the Raiders on a short week), Cleveland (favored by a touchdown at home against Washington), Philadelphia (-6 at home against the Bengals), the Chargers (-7 at home against Carolina), Arizona (-5.5 to -6 at home against Detroit) and Tampa Bay (-6) on the road in Denver. With each staffer having picked just two teams so far this year and only 4 of 22 having picked Indianapolis so far, the expectation is a lot of Colts' picks in Week 3. Let's see how it looks Thursday morning.

The picks are in late on Wednesday night, and the assumptions is correct - 15 of the 18 staffers that still have Indianapolis available went with the Colts. A few decided to go in alterative directions (such as Andy Hicks - see his commentary below). The second-most popular pick was Arizona, as three of the staff went with the Cardinals host Detroit in Week 3. All three staffers on Arizona had to go away from the Colts as they used them in Week 1, while Justin Bonnema joined Dave Larkin in taking the Chargers at home against the Christian McCaffrey-less Carolina Panthers. Larkin decided to "zag" here with most of the staff on Indianapolis, so he is clearly going to be pulling for the Jets to pull the major upset this week. Two unique picks round out the set of picks this week as Andy Hicks chose Pittsburgh (hosting the 0-2 Houston Texans) while Alex Miglio went with Jacksonville on Thursday Night Football to win at home against Miami and to move to 3-0 (something Alex hopes to accomplish as well). Even with nearly 70% of the staff on the Colts, four different teams are spread across the picks here in Week 3, so that should make for another exciting week in the Footballguys' Eliminator Pool.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator/Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: Week 2 went according to plan for me with the Tampa Bay pick, but it was a little closer than I would have liked. No matter - a win is a win. Now Week 3 looks like a perfect time to use Indianapolis, as the Colts get a second home game in a row against the Jets. New York has looked very weak so far this season, while Indianapolis looked strong last week against the Jets. The Indianapolis defense has played well two weeks in a row, and a third looks in store against the Jets here in Week 3. There are not many better opportunities to use the Colts going forwards (perhaps Week 6 at home against Cincinnati), but as the biggest favorite on the board for Week 3 (-10.5), at home and in a conference game (but not divisional), this game checks all the right boxes to take Indianapolis at home for a strong victory.

The Pick: Indianapolis Colts

Andy Hicks: So why did I not take Indianapolis? Because I don’t trust the Colts and Philip Rivers. Are we forgetting they lost to the Jaguars in week one? The Jets are a better side that seems to be playing badly deliberately to get Gase sacked. That's only half-joking. I would rather trust the Steelers this week who rarely put in a shocker and usually beat who they have to.

The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Clayton Gray: It seems like the Colts are a no-brainer pick this week. I like not using my brain, but I'm also scared. Oh well. One note: In a Survivor format (where you're completely out with a single loss), if I knew that everyone was on the Colts, I would take another team. Sure, it would be more of a risk, but the chance to win the contest right away is always too good to pass up.

The Pick: Indianapolis Colts

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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