Eliminator Pool: Week 2

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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, both Dave Larkin and I have written the “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. This has been a very popular feature, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest previously with a preseason strategy article, which describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Well, I did point out that Week 1 is tough, right? Seven of our staffers took a loss on opening weekend, with a few trap games snagging several people. Losses by the Colts in Jacksonville, the Eagles in Washington, and the 49ers and home against the Cardinals really told the story. All three games were in the "warning" category last week for both divisional contests (all three games) and two road favorites (Indianapolis, Philadelphia). Fortunately for about two-thirds of the staff, the Patriots, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bills all took care of business in Week 1 and got the win - but it is always a long, long season. Those who got through unscathed no longer have these playoff contenders available, so the level of difficulty will only increase each week. Just remember that this is a marathon of a contest, not a sprint. On to Week 2!

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

Before even taking a look at the picks for the week, the expectation is that the picks are going to be all over the map in Week 12. There is a full slate of games on the schedule, and exactly three-quarters of them (12 of 16) have point spreads of 5.5 or more. With each staffer having picked just one team on the young season so far, there is a strong likelihood for a large number of different teams to be spread across the 22 staff selections.

The picks are in on Thursday, and the assumption is correct - 10 different teams appear on the list of 22 staff picks. The two most common choices are Pittsburgh (hosting Denver as a touchdown favorite) and Green Bay (a 6-point favorite at home against Detroit) with four staff selections each. The Steelers are a strong pick as they are at home and a 7-point favorite in a non-divisional but conference matchup, so Pittsburgh should be highly motivated to get the job done. The question will be about health for the Steelers with both James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster on the early injury report (odds are that Smith-Schuster suits up, maybe not Conner). The Packers have their home opener against the Lions, with the only concern that this is a divisional matchup, but Green Bay is a -260 Money Line favorite that gives the Packers roughly a 72% chance of winning. San Francisco (at the Jets) and Tampa Bay (hosting Carolina) are the next-most popular choices amongst the staff with three picks each. The 49ers are on the road, but the Jets have not looked good and San Francisco is favored by a touchdown - but road games with an early kickoff can be challenging for West Coast teams, especially after a tough loss in the division to Arizona in Week 1. Tampa Bay could not keep up with the Saints in New Orleans last week, but a home game against the Panthers could be just what Tom Brady and company need. The Buccaneers desperately need a win to keep from falling to 0-2 both overall and in the division, so this is as close to a must-win as you might find in Week 2. Two teams come in next with two staff picks - Buffalo (at Miami) and Tennessee (hosting Jacksonville). Both are divisional matchups, but the Titans are a big favorite (-8.5 to -9) at home, while the Bills looked impressive enough last week against the Jets to warrant being a -5.5 to -6 road favorite in Miami. The Bills look like a tougher call than Tennessee, who is nearly a -400 Money Line favorite. To close out the picks, four unique selections are in for the group: Devin Knotts took his beloved Cleveland Browns to win this Thursday night against Cincinnati as a 6-point favorite, Matt Carey bravely chose the Vikings on the road in Indianapolis, Matt Bitonti went with Seattle and long-time Footballguy Clayton Gray took the Bears at home against the New York Giants, who have a short week after a tough loss to Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football. Ten different teams across 22 staff picks should make for another exciting week in the Footballguys' Eliminator Pool.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: Week 1 went right according to plan as the Buffalo Bills jumped out ahead of the woeful Jets and cruised to a 27-17 Opening Day win that was not even that close. Now comes Week 2, where there is still plenty of uncertainty across the league. Nearly every game (12 of 16) has a point spread of 5.5 or more points, so there is plenty to choose from for this week. Choosing wisely is the trick. After taking a look at the rest of the season for a few teams, I am deciding to go with a team in their home opener that is 0-1 to start the year, and frankly, they cannot afford to lose and fall to 0-2 to start the season. Even though I am breaking one of the Survivor rules by picking a divisional matchup, I trust that this team bounces back and gets a much-needed victory. The veteran quarterback will get the job done, and he will settle in with his new team to pull them back to even at 1-1 overall and in the division. Tampa Bay is also the biggest favorite on the board at -9 to -9.5 and roughly -400 on the money line (just ahead of Tennessee). That is why I am going with Tampa Bay this week, at home against Carolina. The Panthers played the Raiders hard last week, but they gave up a ton of yardage to the run game and the Buccaneers will look to exploit that weakness. Mike Evans should be healthier and I trust Tom Brady in this spot. Let's see how it plays out.

The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Clayton Gray: Whew! Week 1 is over, but Week 2 doesn't seem much easier because there aren't a lot of home teams to like. Green Bay and Tampa Bay seem safe, but they are playing division rivals. Nope and nope. Seattle looked great in Week 1, but am I ready to bet against Bill Belichick? Nope. Pittsburgh should be fine, but they have a lot of injuries all of a sudden. Nope. Dallas will likely score at will, but can they stop Atlanta? Nope. I settled on Chicago, but I'm not thrilled about it. The Giants aren't a very good team, and the Bears are. That should be good enough this week.

The Pick: Chicago Bears

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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