While Divisional Weekend play on Saturday went according to the form book, with the Packers dispatching the Rams in a complete performance and the Bills going coast to coast with a pick-six to crush Baltimore’s hopes, Sunday was a different beast.
Cleveland’s Super Bowl hopes went up in smoke despite a valiant effort at Arrowhead, with Andy Reid pulling out a 4th-and short play that flummoxed even the master of prognostication himself, Tony Romo. And to execute it flawlessly with backup quarterback Chad Henne in the game was the cherry on top.
The late game saw the underdog Buccaneers and the ageless one himself Tom Brady ride a stellar defensive performance to topple their divisional rival New Orleans. Scenes after the game seemed to indicate that this would indeed be the final game for Drew Brees, and truthfully the Hall of Famer seemed to have lost some of the juice in his passes – even going back to last season.
It all sets up for a fascinating Championship Weekend slate, with the AFC’s top two seeds facing off (most neutrals wanted it this way) and Brady versus Rodgers on the NFC side of the bracket. The Super Bowl is tantalizingly close for all four teams. Let’s dig into this week’s clashes.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
TAMPA BAY at GREEN BAY (-3.5 to -3) (Over/Under 51)
(Sunday, 3:05 pm ET, FOX)
History is firmly on the side of the Packers. Since the NFC Championship game began in 1970, home teams have posted a 33-17 SU record. However, road teams have fought back in the last 10 years, going 6-4 SU with all the victories by seven points or less. Those fine margins are typical of games of this magnitude, and one would have to assume that in a battle between two greats on the Mount Rushmore of quarterbacks, the margins will once again be razor thin. Vegas had given the Packers a half-point edge at -3.5, but money has since come in on the Brady-led Bucs to bring the line to -3. With low temperatures and fog expected in Lambeau Field, execution and precision will be pivotal, so the Bucs will need to avoid the miscommunications and mistimed passes that have plagued them at times this season. Even in New Orleans last week the offense sputtered; it required a defensive masterclass in the second half to get the Bucs over the hump. A similarly balanced approach – a stifling defense to bully Aaron Rodgers and a reliable ground game – will be two of the boxes the Bucs must check to keep pace.
Since Matt LaFleur took over as Packers head coach last season, his team is second only to Buffalo in cover rate, beating the spread 62.9% of the time. And despite holding the number one seed and making their second consecutive NFC Championship game, there is a sense that Green Bay is lacking something. Perhaps it is how they win games; not always on the arms of Rodgers, but behind a punishing and cohesive offensive line with a potent backfield, or even with a defense that doesn’t garner the respect it should. The pieces are there to trouble Brady, and the Packers’ secondary should like their chances of matching up to make the Bucs passer hold the ball just a tick longer than he would like. Of course, there is always the possibility that this game comes down to the Rodgers versus Brady arms race that everyone and their dog wants to see. The level of quarterbacking that Rodgers has produced consistently this season has been almost unmatched in his storied career. Like a chess grandmaster who has seen all the permutations on the field, Rodgers has been uncanny in his ability to pick his moments to strike, while at others remaining patient. The last meeting between these teams earlier in the season was a resounding victory for the Bucs; the script may not be completely flipped here, but the Packers have enough to get over the hump and book their Super Bowl ticket, denying the Bucs the chance to play at their home stadium for the big dance.
Pick: Green Bay
BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY (-3) (Over/Under 53.5)
(Saturday, 6:40 pm ET, CBS)
According to the latest reports, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes II is on track to return after he was diagnosed with a concussion in last Sunday’s clash. Experiencing no symptoms on Tuesday, he must complete the protocol before he can be deemed safe to play, but the signs are encouraging. What it means is that we will be treated to a clash of two of the best young quarterbacks in the game facing off, a stark contrast to the Brady/Rodgers battle on the other side of the bracket. While Mahomes and the Kansas City offense had a slower end to the season, they can turn it on at any moment. Home teams have posted a 35-15 record SU in AFC Championship games since 1970, while in the last 10 years the hosts have gone 8-2 SU. Was that an audible gulp I just heard emanating from Buffalo fans? Apart from Mahomes’ concussion, however, there is also the matter of the turf toe he appeared to sustain. It limited his mobility and he was clearly favoring it on several plays. Could Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier have some exotic blitzes cooked up for Mahomes to force him off the spot? It is likely that Reid will err on the side of caution with any designed runs for Mahomes because of the injury, so the defensive assignment for the Bills is made a little bit more manageable.
Kansas City’s defense has a pair of star players in Chris Jones and Tyrann Mathieu, both of whom made their presence felt last week. Apart from that, however, there are weaknesses to be exploited. Josh Allen and the Bills have gone 4-1 ATS as the underdog this season – the best mark in the league – and are battle-tested after two straight playoff victories, achieved with two distinct game scripts. Offensively, Buffalo should like the match-up of their receiving corps and a mobile Allen against a Chiefs defense that gave up chunks of yardage to the Browns. Buffalo’s offense scored 30.3 (third) points per game during the regular season and Sean McDermott will be under no illusions that his team will need to score 30+ points to knock off the Chiefs, healthy Mahomes or not. While Cleveland got off to a slow start, Buffalo will not make the same mistake. In a game that should exceed the total of 53.5, Buffalo’s young gun is fancied to edge it over a hobbled Mahomes.
Pick: Buffalo
CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYS
As with the regular season format, this article will give out not only the Best Bets for the postseason but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
* ONE STAR BETS *
- ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER
- ROBERT TONYAN (PACKERS) – 8/5
- ANTONIO BROWN (BUCS) – 13/5
** TWO STAR BETS **
- BETTING ON HISTORY DOUBLE (3.5-1):
- GREEN BAY (-6.5) - ALTERNATIVE HANDICAP
- KANSAS CITY (-3)
- HALF-POINT UNDERDOG SPECIAL (1.33-1)
- TAMPA BAY (+7.5)
- BUFFALO (+3.5)
*** THREE STAR BETS ***
- THE MIKE SINGLETARY "I WANT WINNERS" DOUBLE (2.46-1)
- BUFFALO – FOR THE WIN
- GREEN BAY – FOR THE WIN
- ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER/MONEYLINE DOUBLE (1.21-1)
- DAVANTE ADAMS ANYTIME TD
- GREEN BAY – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Green Bay, Buffalo
RESULTS
Regular Season
- SEASON OVERALL: 132-118-4 (53.1%)
- BEST BETS: 36-30-2, last week 3-1 (55.2%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 43-37-1, last week 4-1 (54%)
Postseason
- LAST WEEK: 1-3
- POSTSEASON OVERALL: 4-6 (40%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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