With 256 regular-season games in the books, now we turn our full attention to the playoffs. This year will feature 14 playoff teams, creating a bit of extra intrigue on this weekend, where six games will be played. It sets up to be a mouth-watering weekend of football, ladies and gentlemen.
The AFC bracket looks to be the more challenging, with the surging Bills and Ravens highlighting the Wild Card Weekend group, while the Titans and Steelers, on their day, can match anyone. The Chiefs lie in wait next week.
In the NFC, the Saints profile as the most complete team, though their NFC South rivals Tampa Bay has been on a hot streak and could surprise. The Rams have a defense that can cause any offense problems. Maybe even Green Bay's.
Fewer games on the docket means the Vegas sharps have ample opportunity to drill down and find every edge, so picking the right spots is crucial not only this week but throughout the playoffs. After a regular season with a 53.1% overall winning percentage and a 55.2% winning percentage on Best Bets, it is time to keep the momentum going into the postseason.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
INDIANAPOLIS at BUFFALO (-7) (Over/Under 52)
(Saturday, 1.05pm ET, CBS)
The home team has come out the victor in this series six straight times, dating back to 2006, a trend that the red-hot Bills will be hoping to continue in Orchard Park. Few teams have been able to claim to match the firepower and torrid points output of Sean McDermott’s team in recent weeks. In fact, the offense has averaged 47.3 points per game over the last three and ranks second only to Green Bay in points per game this season, with 31.3. Josh Allen has led the 3rd-ranked passing attack and has blossomed into a quarterback to fear, making the seven-point Vegas line a little curious, and perhaps one that will be looked back on and laughed at. After all, offense tends to win in the NFL these days, and the Bills have it in spades.
Across from the youthful vigor of Allen will be the grizzled veteran Philip Rivers, who could be making his final start amid chatter of retirement. While Rivers has posted a 5-6 record in the postseason, interestingly he has gone a perfect 4-0 in Wild Card games. The Colts will not be a pushover, as their eighth-ranked defense will give Allen and his enviable set of skill players everything they can handle. There is also the small matter of containing Jonathan Taylor, who has clearly gotten more comfortable reading his blocks and trusting his talent to explode for huge gains in recent weeks. While Indy has every reason to be hopeful on paper, the Bills simply look too powerful. Expect Allen to shine under the spotlight after a forgettable Wild Card performance last season.
Pick: Buffalo
LA RAMS at SEATTLE (-4.5) (Over/Under 43)
(Saturday, 4.40 pm ET, FOX)
Seattle takes their place as the third seed and has made the playoffs for the eighth time in the last nine seasons. Pete Carroll’s team has stumbled to the finish line, but this is a well-oiled playoff machine, having won their postseason opener in six of the last seven attempts. While playing at home will not hold its typical advantage for the Seahawks, experience might. Sean McVay’s team is making its third postseason appearance in four seasons. The teams split the season series, but the most recent battle – which saw Jared Goff bewildered and befuddled by an energetic Seahawks defense – will linger in the mind of McVay as he prepares for this game, perhaps having to prepare without Goff.
If Goff can’t go, it will be John Wolford getting only his second start – and in one of the most pressure-filled environments in all of sports. Go figure. Wolford’s dynamism injected a bit of life into the Rams offense last week, but the defense will be the unit most relied upon in this clash. The low total of 43 gives some insight into the type of game Vegas is expecting between these familiar foes: a knock-down, drag-out slugfest. Priority one for the Seahawks will be protecting Russell Wilson against the onslaught of Aaron Donald and the Rams pass rush. With the Wolford/Goff situation a major wildcard (if you’ll excuse the wordplay) in the analysis, the 4.5-point line still appeals in what should be a tight and physical contest. In toss-up games, the wise choice is usually to take the points and see what happens.
Pick: Los Angeles
TAMPA BAY at WASHINGTON (-6.5 to -8.5) (Over/Under 45.5)
(Saturday, 8.15 pm ET, NBC)
It has been a while since the Bucs walked upon the hallowed ground of playoff football. Thirteen years have passed, in fact, and Tampa Bay has not won a playoff game since 2002 (Super Bowl XXXVII). Of the NFC’s contenders, Tampa Bay has perhaps the strongest case for being the team nobody wants to face; the Baltimore Ravens of the NFC bracket, if you will. Tom Brady has led his team to the postseason for the 18th time, though it will be the first time he will play on the road in the opening round. Tossing 40 touchdown passes to just 12 interceptions, Brady has hit new heights for a 43-year-old quarterback. The fly in the ointment is the injury to Mike Evans, but the Bucs have more than enough in their arsenal to make up for his absence if it comes to that. Defensively, Tampa Bay is at least on par or even better than the formidable Washington defense.
Ron Rivera’s team barely squeaked into the dance after a fortuitous Week 17 clash with the Eagles turned into a national conversation piece over competitiveness and fair play. The grizzled coach has thrived in the past on upsetting the odds and will be emphasizing the disrespect being shown to his Football Team by the Vegas oddsmakers. With hints of a quarterback by committee on the horizon, however, Rivera’s message may fall flat. Alex Smith has performed miracles in returning to a roster, let alone playing football again, but the veteran passer is limited. More limited still might be Taylor Heinicke, who is projected to take a few snaps. It could be mind games by Rivera, but to what end? Recent history lies with the Washington Football Team in this match-up: since 2011-12, the Wild Card team that is the biggest favorite for the weekend is 6-4 SU but just 3-7 ATS. That team is just 1-7 ATS since 2013-14. The best approach to this contest may be simply to tease the Bucs down to -2.5 and parlay it with the Saints. Expect Brady and the Bucs to flex their muscles and remind the NFC field of the threat they pose.
Pick: Washington
BALTIMORE (-4 to -3.5) at TENNESSEE (Over/Under 55)
(Sunday, 1.05 pm ET, ABC/ESPN)
This budding rivalry between two highly entertaining AFC teams is the perfect way to kick off an intriguing Sunday of action. The last meeting between these sides was a memorable one in last year’s Divisional Round, as the fancied Ravens fell 28-12 to the Titans as 10-point favorites. Ryan Tannehill and company repeated the feat in Week 11 of this season, toppling the Ravens on their turf once again. Interestingly, the visitor has won the last three in this series. Among the many storylines that the media will be zoning in on is the "Can Lamar Jackson win a playoff game?" narrative, with the quarterback going 0-2 thus far, both home games. On the road and having cruised in recent games to surge into the playoffs, Jackson and his squad will be aiming to get that bagel off their record. Indeed, John Harbaugh has fared well on the road in the playoffs, going 8-5 and a perfect 4-0 in Wild Card games.
All signs – and all the money, it seems – point to a straightforward Ravens win. Maybe even a massacre. But not so fast, my friends. The Titans, while lacking any kind of pass rush – their fatal flaw – have the feistiness and offensive firepower to keep things interesting. Playing in their first postseason home game since 2008 (a narrow loss to, you guessed it, Baltimore), the Titans will look to lean on the old reliable trio of Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and A.J. Brown to flummox Baltimore’s defense. There is a case to be made that, despite the Ravens’ surge of late, they have not recorded many signature wins apart from the riveting Monday night win over Cleveland. Tennessee offensive coordinator Arthur Smith took an aggressive mindset to shock the Ravens early in the game last year; perhaps that strategy will be the order of the day once again. The safest play on this game might be to avoid the side completely and bet on the under. Since the 2011-12 postseason, the Wild Card game with the highest total is 2-7 over/under.
Pick: Baltimore
CHICAGO at NEW ORLEANS (-9.5) (Over/Under 48)
(Sunday, 4.40 pm ET, CBS)
The first thought that came to mind when the Bears were drawn against the Saints was beautiful in its simplicity: how is Mitchell Trubisky going to keep this interesting? The Bears and Saints locked horns in Week 8 of the regular season, with New Orleans pulling out a 26-23 victory, failing to cover the 5.5-point spread, but things have changed since then. Chicago’s end-of-season momentum helped them edge into the postseason picture, but they are very much on the periphery and Vegas currently have them as +3300 to win the Super Bowl. In other words, faith placed in them may be misplaced. The prevailing wisdom entering this clash is that the Bears will be a speed bump as New Orleans puts seasons of postseason pain behind them. While 9.5 points might be a little steep, the combination of an up-and-down Bears attack and a smothering Saints defense quickly convinces even the most skeptical.
The return of Drew Brees has restored a degree of calm and precision to the offense that was lacking under Taysom Hill, despite the improvements the latter made. By all accounts, this will be the last ride for Brees, one final opportunity to add a second ring to his collection and go out on a high. Chicago’s pass rush will do everything in their power to disrupt him, with former Saints lineman Akiem Hicks certain to have an extra chip on his shoulder. After the Covid-19 outbreak among the New Orleans running backs that prevented them from playing last week, there is a chance that they could return. Honestly, though, even if the Saints must rely once again on Ty Montgomery, they should find a way. This team is battle-tested and should be able to take care of business at home. The 9.5-point spread is a good option for a tease, perhaps with the Bucs game, to take the Saints down to -3.5.
Pick: Chicago
CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH (-3.5 to -6) (Over/Under 47)
(Sunday, 8.15 pm ET, NBC)
The Covid-19 pandemic has sunk its tentacles into the NFL on many occasions this season – and now it has hit the Browns on their first playoff appearance in 18 years. Head coach Kevin Stefanski, two of his assistant coaches, and some players have tested positive, throwing the planning for this match-up into question at the worst possible moment. Special teams coach Mike Priefer is set to handle game-day duties, with Stefanski aiding virtually in the preparation during the week. It all adds up to an uphill battle for Cleveland, who have turned the ship around in a major way this season. With below-freezing temperatures expected at Heinz Field, the Browns’ best path to victory might reside firmly with the combination of their offensive line and their excellent running back duo. Defensively, Cleveland has been an easy mark as key players have been lost, with DE Olivier Vernon the latest to be taken out of action.
As for Pittsburgh, this marks the storied franchise’s first playoff appearance since 2017, a veritable drought considering their history. They have gone just 1-2 in their last three postseason games, however, and their late-season momentum was pedestrian at best. Having almost beaten Cleveland last week with a series of second-string players, the Steelers will be confident they can go one better at home. The Browns have been soft on defense at times this season, so perhaps even the beleaguered Pittsburgh running game could get a boost. It is a pity for Cleveland that the Covid outbreak struck, as this takes some of the gloss off the clash. Nevertheless, there is a path to victory for the visitors, albeit a slim one. With the experience advantage in coaching and at quarterback, Pittsburgh gets the nod.
Pick: Pittsburgh
WILD CARD PLAYS
As with the regular season format, this article will give out not only the Best Bets for the postseason but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
The lines this week provide good opportunities to tease the lines through the key numbers of 3 and 7, while the totals are also tempting.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- ALTERNATE HANDICAP DOUBLE (4-1 ODDS)
- BUFFALO (-9.5)
- PITTSBURGH (-9.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- "TRUST THE TRENDS" DOUBLE (2.61-1 ODDS):
- BALTIMORE/TENNESSEE – UNDER 55
- WASHINGTON (+8.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- NFC SOUTH 6-POINT TEASER (0.75-1)
- TAMPA BAY (-2.5)
- NEW ORLEANS (-3.5)
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Buffalo, LA Rams, Washington, Baltimore, Chicago, Pittsburgh
RESULTS
Last Week / Regular Season
- LAST WEEK: 11-4-1
- SEASON OVERALL: 132-118-4 (53.1%)
- BEST BETS: 36-30-2, last week 3-1 (55.2%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 43-37-1, last week 4-1 (54%)
Good luck this weekend!
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