Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
It was yet another week when erring on the side of the underdog bore fruit, with the less fancied teams going 10-5 against the spread (ATS) and road teams recording a 10-5 record across the week. My suspicion in last week’s column was that there were too many lines that screamed ‘too easy’, so instantly the dogs became more intriguing. That took this column’s tally to 9-6 for the week and, with a few key Best Bet selections, took the Best Bets winning percentage to a tidy 57.8% for the season. The beat goes on in Week 13, with more Covid-19 affected games afoot.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
CLEVELAND at TENNESSEE (-5.5) (Over/Under 54)
Winners of three straight, the Browns (8-3) should be one of the darlings of the league. And yet, week after week, the commentary drifts towards a sexier topic, a more well-rounded team. The formula used by Cleveland to salt away games – relying on a two-headed backfield and a strong offensive line – does not win many plaudits in the 2020 NFL, but it is effective. Holding serve for the rest of the season should secure a postseason berth for the woebegone franchise. Vegas has deigned to make the unloved Browns a 5.5-point underdog against a Titans team that, just a couple of weeks ago, was in the doldrums. The spidey senses are tingling already.
The Titans have gone 2-2 ATS as the home favorite this season and certainly their formula will mirror that of Cleveland: plenty of the ground game and Derrick Henry, whose performance last week reminded everyone that come playoff time, the King comes to play. The Browns have been a bend but don’t break defense all season long and the return of Myles Garrett for this game would be welcome. Denzel Ward’s match-up with A.J. Brown will be worth monitoring as well. Relying on Baker Mayfield in a negative game script is always risky, but this number feels off.
Pick: Cleveland
LAS VEGAS (-7.5) at NEW YORK JETS (Over/Under 47)
The Raiders have gone 2-1 ATS as the road favorite this season, with last week’s spanking at the hands of Atlanta the one in the ‘L’ column. Jon Gruden praised the Falcons entering that game, calling them the best 3-7 team he had ever seen. Perhaps his message did not get across to his team: that there are no easy wins in this league. Fortunately for Derek Carr, he will be able to put that regrettable display behind him in New Jersey on Sunday. The status of Josh Jacobs bears watching, but Devontae Booker should fill in without much of a drop-off. Defensively, Las Vegas will need to see a better showing as their playoff hopes hang by a thread.
Sam Darnold’s much-anticipated return did not quite materialize into the air show that many predicted. With his full complement of receivers in tow, Darnold looked bereft of ideas at times and lacked a feel for the game. He may have more success against a hapless Raiders defense that has been generous to opposing passers all season. That said, the Jets provide little reason for hope, having gone 3-8 ATS this year. It is a lot of points to swallow, but the Raiders get the nod.
Pick: Las Vegas
JACKSONVILLE at MINNESOTA (-9.5) (Over/Under 52.5)
Even at 5-6, the Vikings are not out of the playoff picture. The coveted seventh spot, currently held by a faltering Arizona, is within the sights of a resurgent Kirk Cousins and company. Suddenly that contract extension for Mike Zimmer is not looking too shabby. The comeback drive last week against Carolina was a welcome sign from Cousins, who was missing his primary receiver Adam Thielen. Dalvin Cook returned to the game last week after a brief injury scare, though Jacksonville’s defense has been decent of late and could force Cousins to air it out.
Mike Glennon certainly did not disgrace himself in the defeat to Cleveland, and it is worth noting that the Jaguars have gone 5-6 ATS this season overall and 5-5 ATS as the underdog. Carolina showed that the Vikings defense is eminently exploitable, so James Robinson should be able to give Glennon a solid base to work off in the play action game. Minnesota lost to the Cowboys just a couple of weeks ago and barely beat the Panthers, so the Jaguars laying 9.5 points seems a little excessive.
Pick: Jacksonville
CINCINNATI at MIAMI (-11) (Over/Under 42.5)
Special teams played a huge part in the Bengals’ 17-point output against the Giants, but at some point, Brandon Allen will have to start converting on third down and threatening defenses. The low total of 42.5 and the high spread tell us everything we need to know about Vegas’ expectations: a walk in the park for Miami. There is a pathway to the Bengals covering the 11-point number, but it is a dark and narrow one, and it is best avoided.
Ryan Fitzpatrick looks set to continue as the starter with Tua Tagovailoa nursing a thumb injury – and that may not be the worst move for the Dolphins. Currently the sixth seed in the AFC playoffs, they have every reason to trust the veteran to bring them home the rest of the way. Expect the Dolphins to take care of business and tack on a defensive or special teams touchdown for good measure.
Pick: Miami
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) at HOUSTON (Over/Under 53.5)
Romeo Crennel’s team is playing their hearts out with nothing to lose and, perhaps, everything to gain. Jim Nantz painted an optimistic picture of the Texans’ schedule down the stretch, suggesting that a run could see them into the postseason. That improbable scenario starts this week against a reeling Colts team that just shipped 40+ points to the Titans. The loss of Will Fuller to suspension is a bitter blow for the Texans, once again forcing Deshaun Watson to play with one arm tied behind his back.
Opportunity knocks for Indianapolis, currently stuck on the bubble in the seventh playoff spot and eyeing up an unpalatable match-up at Arrowhead as things stand. With Philip Rivers at the controls, this is not a team that is built to come from behind, so a positive game script will be the priority in Houston. This feels like an excellent bounce back spot for the visitors, who could have Jonathan Taylor back. Expect a response from the defense after such a poor showing last week.
Pick: Indianapolis
DETROIT at CHICAGO (-4) (Over/Under 45)
All has changed, change utterly in Detroit. The firing of Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn brings with it yet another facelift for a franchise that has undergone its fair share. The Thanksgiving fare the Lions slopped on our plates was nothing short of disgusting and, with a little luck, better will come this week. Teams tend to play better after the firing of a head coach, providing a shot across the bow to current players that their roles may not be safe.
Fortunately for the moribund Lions, their division rival Chicago is not faring much better. A fifth consecutive loss has unmasked Matt Nagy’s team as a pretender and one that could be ripe for the picking down the stretch, especially with Mitchell Trubisky starting. While the young passer offered something a little different against the Packers, the move from Nick Foles to him appears to be a lateral one at best. In a game featuring two teams in such dire straits, the best bet is to take the points.
Pick: Detroit
NEW ORLEANS (-3) at ATLANTA (Over/Under 46)
The Saints have covered four in a row and have gone ‘under’ in four straight games as they continue to go from strength to strength. The NFC is theirs for the taking, even with a limited Taysom Hill at quarterback. It was only two weeks ago that these teams met in New Orleans, where Hill debuted and made some positive strides. One wonders if the Falcons, with a little more tape on Hill, will do a better job this time. The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Atlanta and should fancy their chances, especially defensively, to cause problems.
Atlanta is 3-1 ATS over the last four games, a trend in keeping with their typical end-of-season runs of the past few years. The demolition of the Raiders, though unexpected, was a clear sign that they are not done yet. Matt Ryan has seen his pass protection break down often recently, a real concern for the Falcons against one of the league’s best front sevens. With the better team laying just three points, the only way the Saints fail to cover is a handful of Hill errors.
Pick: New Orleans
NEW YORK GIANTS at SEATTLE (-10) (Over/Under 48.5)
Only one playoff seed separates the Giants from the Seahawks, but there is a four-win difference between the teams. New York squeezed past the lowly Bengals last week to record their fourth victory of the season, enough to catapult them into the NFC East lead. Interestingly, the Giants have gone 5-0 ATS as the road underdog this season. Unfortunately, a hamstring injury to Daniel Jones that has him on the doubtful side of questionable will likely force Colt McCoy into action. As a result of the uncertainty, many sportsbooks do not have a line for this game.
The Seahawks took care of business on Monday night in a typically efficient performance. Nothing too flashy, but they got the job done. DK Metcalf continues to flex his muscles – literally and figuratively – to bully defensive backs, while Russell Wilson remains a cool customer in the cauldron of the playoff race. Seattle is 8-3 and, with a solid end-of-season run, could vault into the #2 seed. Given the uncertainty over Jones, the Seahawks get the nod.
Pick: Seattle
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-2.5) at ARIZONA (Over/Under 48.5)
Sean McVay has enjoyed seeing cardinal red during his time as Rams head coach. He has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in his meetings with the men from the desert since taking over in 2017. Vegas experts like to lean on trends – and this one fits the bill. What also qualifies as a trend is the inconsistency of Jared Goff, whose stellar play is often followed by duds in subsequent games. The 49ers game last Sunday was a prime example. Despite the team around him lifting the Rams and putting them into position, he was unable to create much out of structure against a disciplined San Francisco defense.
The Cardinals will be licking their wounds as well, having been on the wrong side of a three-point game in Foxborough. There are still legitimate question marks over how willing and able Kyler Murray is to unleash himself as a runner, only a few weeks after suffering a shoulder injury. That may go some way to explaining the Rams laying points on the road. Arizona has failed to cover their last four games, but they have gone 11-4-1 in their last 16 as the underdog.
Pick: Los Angeles
NEW ENGLAND at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-1) (Over/Under 47)
In another year, this clash would have warranted more attention, but in 2020 it has been consigned to the sideshows of Week 13. The Patriots can claim they are still in the playoff hunt at 5-6, and rightly so, but the battle is an uphill one. Cam Newton’s displays have left a lot to be desired. The defense has produced performances in fits and starts, but not enough to warrant playoff consideration. Bill Belichick’s team has not traveled well this season, either, going 1-4 ATS.
Somehow, some way, the Chargers find themselves at 3-8 and will be kicking themselves for – you guessed it – a series of missed opportunities and near-misses this season. Anthony Lynn will be acutely aware that his job security is tied to a strong finish, and a signature win over Belichick would boost his chances tremendously. Justin Herbert has shown no fear against any defense, and there is no reason to believe he will be cowed by this Patriots unit. A lot of sportsbooks have this as a pick ‘em, but the slight lean goes to the Chargers.
Pick: Los Angeles
PHILADELPHIA at GREEN BAY (-9.5) (Over/Under 49)
The opening line on this game was Packers by 6.5, but things change fast in the NFL. Perception changes fast. Only a few seasons ago, Eagles head coach Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz were the toast of Philadelphia; now, they are the targets of constant criticism, ire and discontent. The Monday night game further illustrated the dysfunction that permeates the Philadelphia offense, and one wonders if Pederson, despite his public proclamations, will bench Wentz at some point.
The Packers are heading in the opposite direction and, three games clear in the NFC North, are closing in on a home playoff game. With a national audience watching in the late afternoon, expect Aaron Rodgers and company to put on a show in Lambeau, where the Packers have gone 6-3 ATS in their last nine. The Eagles defense can put up a game effort, but given Wentz’s struggles it is difficult to put any faith in the visitors.
Pick: Green Bay
(Sunday Night) DENVER at KANSAS CITY (-14) (Over/Under 50.5)
The Chiefs are on a 10-game winning streak against the Broncos, a total that represents the longest ever in this series. Andy Reid might be forgiven this week, therefore, for easing off the gas a little bit. Patrick Mahomes II will be just as eager to continue his blistering MVP-level pace, though, and the Broncos will be the victims. The points-spread tax on Kansas City continues to get more onerous for gamblers, and yet it is still tempting to lay the points.
Fortunately, the Broncos will welcome back Drew Lock this week, sending poor Kendall Hinton back to the practice squad after his cameo against New Orleans. One must wonder what the mindset of the Denver locker room will be after the coronavirus scare; will they rally or flop at the first hurdle? The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings between these sides, so that appeals with the total at 50.5. The Chiefs have gone 5-5 ATS as favorites this season, so the 14 points is too much to pass up.
Pick: Denver
(Monday Evening) WASHINGTON at PITTSBURGH (-10) (Over/Under 44)
It wasn’t always convincing, but the Steelers got the job done to round out the longest week in NFL history. Sitting pretty at 11-0, they have a short week before welcoming the Washington Football Team, who have everything to play for. The Chiefs are hot on the tail of the Men of Steel, however, so no slip-ups can be tolerated. This is the very definition of a trap game for Mike Tomlin’s men, so the 10-point spread seems a little generous.
The Alex Smith-led Washington offense scored 40+ points against a hobbled and listless Dallas defense on Thanksgiving, but this task will be a different one entirely. As the favorite, the Steelers have gone 6-3 ATS this season, while Washington have gone 5-4 as the underdog – not much to separate them, in other words. There is enough on the line for Washington here, and their roster is good enough, to at least hang with Pittsburgh.
Pick: Washington
(Monday Night) BUFFALO (-2.5) at SAN FRANCISCO (Over/Under 48)
The 49ers will play in Arizona this week due to coronavirus restrictions in Santa Clara, making State Farm Stadium their home away from home. The stirring last-second victory over the Rams was a statement of intent from Kyle Shanahan and his players that, even at 5-6, they are not dead yet. Injuries are still going to play a part in just how effective this team can be, but the return of Richard Sherman and Raheem Mostert is a good start. The defense played with greater swagger last week as well.
The last time the Bills played in this stadium was a heartbreaker as they lost on the famous ‘Hail Murray’ play in the waning seconds to Arizona. They will be aiming for a better outcome this time. At 8-3 and looking like a team to reckon with, Sean McDermott’s men will need to put up a strong showing to knock off a desperate team like San Francisco. If the 49ers can get their ground game going, the Bills could be in hot water. We could be in for an unpredictable Monday night.
Pick: San Francisco
(Tuesday Night) DALLAS at BALTIMORE (No line, no total)
At the time of publishing of this article, there is no line available with most sportsbooks for this game. Some brave ones have the Ravens listed as seven-point favorites, though with so much uncertainty surrounding the game, it is the equivalent of a shrug of the shoulders. The Ravens played two quarterbacks against Pittsburgh, with a Trace McSorley connection to Marquise Brown the only highlight on an otherwise grim day. At 6-5 and currently occupying the ninth seed in the AFC bracket, the path to the postseason appears to be closed off.
The Cowboys are unlikely to provide much resistance assuming Baltimore can shrug off the recent setbacks. Lamar Jackson is expected to return, along with a host of other virus-affected players. Dallas is technically not out of the playoff picture – yet – so we should expect a kitchen sink effort from them. The recent evidence would suggest, though, that as much as Andy Dalton and crew might huff and puff, they are unlikely to blow the house down.
Pick: Baltimore
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
It proved to be a great week for the Best Bets, with a 3-1 finish. With lines getting more efficient as the weeks go by, however, we must remain focused and stick to the process. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 NEW ORLEANS (-3) at ATLANTA
- 2 DENVER (+14) at KANSAS CITY
- 3 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-1) vs. NEW ENGLAND
- 4 CLEVELAND (+5.5) at TENNESSEE
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 13 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.64-1 ODDS)
- CLEVELAND (+5.5)
- LA CHARGERS (-1)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DOUBLE DOG (4-1 ODDS):
- SAN FRANCISCO – FOR THE WIN
- DETROIT – FOR THE WIN
- 3-TEAM 6-POINT TEASER (2.61-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (-3.5)
- LAS VEGAS (-1.5)
- SEATTLE (-4)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM ATS/SU SPECIAL (4.05-1 ODDS)
- NEW ORLEANS (-3)
- DENVER (+14)
- LAS VEGAS – FOR THE WIN
- MIAMI – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: New Orleans, Denver, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland, Los Angeles Rams
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 9-6
- SEASON OVERALL: 93-80-3 (54.1%)
- BEST BETS: 27-20-1, last week 3-1 (57.8%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 32-28-1, last week 4-1 (53.7%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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