Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Favorites went 5-8 against the spread this week, something that hurt yours truly as too many wagers were placed on teams laying the points. To date, the favorites are 71-85-2 against the spread as the lack of home-field advantage makes it mark. Thanksgiving is coming at us fast, so this is no time to wallow in last week’s shortcomings.
Note that the over/unders are sourced from VegasInsider.com
(Thanksgiving) HOUSTON (-2.5) at DETROIT (Over/Under 51.5)
The Texans may just be the best 3-7 team we have witnessed. Deshaun Watson is showing maturity and development in his game in the post-Bill O’Brien era, while fellow franchise cornerstone J.J. Watt looks to have recaptured some of his magic of old. As Thanksgiving openers go, this one may hit the palate with a bit of a sour taste, only to burst into flavor as the game goes on. That the Texans are laying points on the road tells us everything we need to know about Vegas’ opinion of the Lions.
Beware the -2.5, however. This is a back against the walls type of encounter for the home team, whose head coach Matt Patricia must surely be feeling the heat after a shocking 20-0 loss to a P.J. Walker-quarterbacked Panthers team. Granted, Detroit was missing some key pieces, but the effort was poor at times. This game ultimately comes down to trust, and the Texans are the team with more of it in the bank. There should be plenty of action on this game among casual gamblers, so wait and see if you can get Detroit at +3 closer to kick off.
Pick: Detroit
(Thanksgiving) WASHINGTON at DALLAS (-3) (Over/Under 46)
Both Dallas and Washington will be giving thanks that they reside in the worst division in football on Thursday, with the rivals just a half-game out of first place. The last meeting in Week 7 saw Andy Dalton get knocked out, paving the way for a disastrous Ben DiNucci performance and a handy Washington victory. The Red Rifle’s return last week in Minnesota ignited the offense and it finally appears as though the veteran has gotten into a groove with his teammates. Defensively, Dallas are not the train wreck of a few weeks ago, though they are still ripe for the picking against the high-end quarterbacks.
As inspiring as Alex Smith’s comeback has been, he does not fit into that category. The Football Team’s defensive front is their best path to success against a Cowboys offensive line that still ranks among the bottom half, but they may not get the chance to pin their ears back. Dallas’ offense took a huge step forward last week and has the talent to get out to a quick lead and make it five home wins on the bounce against Washington. Grab a second helping of turkey while the Cowboys march into a commanding lead in the second half.
Pick: Dallas
(Thanksgiving Night) BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH (-4.5) (Over/Under 45)
The Steelers are making it look easy, going 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight and cruising to a 10-0 record. The reality is that, while Pittsburgh has shoved aside all resistance this season, the Ravens should have taken care of business against them in Week 8. Two late red-zone opportunities fell short, in what is becoming a worrying trend for Lamar Jackson and the offense. There were signs of dissent in the ranks in Baltimore after the loss to Tennessee as well, with Jackson admitting that the Titans wanted it more.
At 6-4 and on the outside looking in the AFC playoff race, this is a must-win for John Harbaugh’s team. Pittsburgh, however, is a ferocious defensive unit capable of pinning Jackson into the pocket and forcing him into quick decisions. With both Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins on the Covid-19 list, suddenly the ground game looks a lot less formidable. Baltimore has won four of the past six in Pittsburgh straight up (SU), and with this being their last-chance saloon game, expect a game effort and a close affair.
Pick: Baltimore
MIAMI (-7) at NY JETS (Over/Under 44.5)
The Dolphins snapped a five-game winning streak in Denver, with a dominant defensive performance by the Broncos leaving Tua Tagovailoa at sixes and sevens. Ryan Fitzpatrick entered the game late on to try to find a spark for the offense, but to no avail. Tagovailoa will be back at the helm against the Jets in what should be a more manageable match-up. The previous meeting between these teams in Week 6 resulted in a shutout, with Miami winning 24-0 as 10-point favorites.
The Jets have been feistier lately, however, and there is reason to believe that even Joe Flacco could, with this crew of receivers, give Miami some problems. Covering against the Chargers as 9.5-point underdogs last week showed the Jets are at least capable of battling hard. Against a division rival at home, expect a similar effort this week. Miami’s defense has the potential to spoil the post-Thanksgiving party for the Jets at any moment, but the seven points is too tempting not to wager on.
Pick: New York
ARIZONA (-2.5) at NEW ENGLAND (Over/Under 50)
Kyler Murray’s right shoulder issue will the main talking point coming into this game, though the expectation is that the quick-twitch quarterback will be ready to roll. It will be instructive, however, to watch how often Murray takes off, something that was effectively removed from the game plan in the previous game against Seattle. Laying 2.5 points on the road against the Patriots is the type of line that the gambling public would have scoffed at prior to the season; not now. While this is a fair line, it is another example of one to be wary of – it looks almost too easy.
The Patriots have been anything but easy to watch over the past few weeks. From a grind-it-out win over Baltimore in the wet conditions to a narrow loss to Houston, Bill Belichick’s team has been tricky to figure out. The run defense is exploitable, so the battle between the Arizona ground attack and New England front seven will be a key one. At the same time, the Patriots offense is more than capable of finding holes in the shaky Arizona defense. In a finely poised clash such as this, taking the points is preferable. Wait to see if you can get New England at +3, however.
Pick: New England
CAROLINA at MINNESOTA (-4.5) (Over/Under 48.5)
The Panthers are familiar with being underdogs this season – and they have been a winning bet in that spot, going 6-3 ATS for a cover rate of 66.7%. Matt Rhule’s team managed to put together a shutout victory over a hamstrung Lions squad last week with P.J. Walker as his quarterback, so his team should never be counted out. If Teddy Bridgewater returns this week for a game against the team that drafted him, suddenly the 4.5-point spread looks very appealing in favor of the road team.
And then there is the Dalvin Cook factor. The Carolina run defense has been lacking punch this season at times, while the Vikings have averaged 166.3 yards per game on the ground over the past three outings. After losing to Dallas, however, is there a chance the air has been let out of the balloon in Minnesota? With their playoff hopes dashed at 4-6, there is little reason to believe the home team is worth the 4.5-point line. Rhule’s underdogs could bite yet again.
Pick: Carolina
CLEVELAND (-6.5) at JACKSONVILLE (Over/Under 48.5)
Despite allowing more points than they have scored, the Browns are flying high at 7-3 and have approximately an 84% chance of making the playoffs from this point. It would be very typical of the Browns to stumble and bumble, missing out on a postseason berth, but maybe not this team. Kevin Stefanski has the right formula to succeed, and there is every reason to believe that Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt can carry the load this week in Jacksonville to get them to 8-3. Notably, the Browns are 3-4 ATS as favorites this season.
The 6.5-point line in the visitors' favor looks a little bit rich to wager on confidently, but this one should be a popular six-point teaser option for the betting public. Our Jene Bramel has listed Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew as questionable for this week. Barring something unforeseen, we should see another start from Jake Luton, who tossed four picks last week against Pittsburgh. While not the match of their division rivals defensively, Cleveland has the talent and the projected game script to exploit any errors.
Pick: Cleveland
TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS (-4) (Over/Under 51)
The dead heat for AFC South supremacy continues at a pace this week, only two weeks after the last meeting of these rivals saw the Colts run out victors. That was one of Tennessee’s poorest efforts of the season, but Mike Vrabel’s men bounced back in style last week with a stirring overtime win in Baltimore. There is no doubt the Titans are a flawed team in many respects, but their superstar players – Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown – have game-changing potential on every touch.
Indeed, had Ryan Tannehill connected on that deep ball to Brown early in the last Colts game, perhaps Tennessee would have gone on to seal the victory. The margins will be tight in this game, though the Colts will be feeling their oats as well after an impressive win of their own against the Packers. Jonathan Taylor finally got into a groove in that game, while rookie wideout Michael Pittman Jr also shone. There is a sense that the Colts could put together some end-of-season momentum. However, in a rivalry game such as this, Tennessee will take their best shot – and that should be enough to keep it close.
Pick: Tennessee
NY GIANTS (-5.5) at CINCINNATI (Over/Under 42.5)
The Giants, fresh off their bye, have a path to winning the NFC East despite having just three wins – just like every other team in the division. Joe Judge’s team were handed a timely break coming into this game with the devastating injury to Joe Burrow, forcing Ryan Finley into the line-up. Suddenly, the Cincinnati offense lacks that extra punch and could be ripe for the picking by an improving Big Blue defense.
Much like some of the other lines this week, however, the 5.5-point favorites tag for the Giants seems a little excessive and perhaps overly dismissive of Finley and the Bengals. If there is ever to be a game where Daniel Jones gets into a proper rhythm, however, this is it. The Bengals defense ranks 22nd in points per game allowed; it should only take a solid performance from the visitors to get the job done, but the trust factor with the Giants is fragile.
Pick: Cincinnati
LA CHARGERS at BUFFALO (-5.5) (Over/Under 54)
In one of the most intriguing match-ups on the slate this week, the high-scoring Chargers with rookie sensation Justin Herbert head to Buffalo to tackle the AFC East favorites Buffalo. With the Chargers floundering at 3-7 in the standings, however, it will just be a day to play spoiler and to build on the momentum of last week. Anthony Lynn’s seat may not be hot, but a handful of victories down the stretch would do his chances of retaining his job the world of good. Austin Ekeler could return in a limited capacity to provide a much-needed pep in the L.A. running and passing game.
The Bills are coming off their bye and should be well prepared for what the Chargers have to offer. Sean McDermott’s team has gone 3-4 ATS as favorites this season and the 5.5-point line is perhaps a little off. Regardless, the Bills should be able to take care of business in a game that will see the Buffalo skies filled with footballs. With a total of 54, Vegas expects a shootout, so buckle up. Herbert should be able to keep this game within reach, so take the points.
Pick: Los Angeles
LAS VEGAS (-3) at ATLANTA (Over/Under 55)
The Raiders produced a near-flawless display offensively on Sunday night to give the Chiefs a scare, but nothing more. Derek Carr continued to show how efficiently he can run the offense – and indeed how varied and at times hilarious his selection of audibles are. Even at 6-4 and on the outside looking in as far as the AFC playoffs, the Raiders are in a prime position to put together a strong end-of-season run with a favorable schedule.
That starts in Atlanta this week, with the Falcons getting three points at home. Matt Ryan will be a little more battered and bruised than usual after being knocked around by the dominant Saints front. The Las Vegas defense does not pose the same type of problems, hence the high total of 55 and the likelihood that this could shoot out. In games such as these, where it very well could be the team that has the ball last that sneaks the victory, taking the points is the prudent approach. These teams are perhaps not as far apart as their records suggest.
Pick: Atlanta
SAN FRANCISCO at LA RAMS (-7) (Over/Under 46.5)
All aboard the Rams bandwagon, ladies and gentlemen. But this is not just any bandwagon; it is one that has gained significant momentum. Earlier this season, Sean McVay’s team was dismissed as the team that handled the NFC East; now, after wins over the Seahawks and Buccaneers, they have earned respect in a crowded playoff picture. Atop the NFC West at 7-3, the opportunity is there to extend the lead against a 49ers team that has been bedeviled by injuries.
It would be unwise, however, to dismiss Kyle Shanahan’s team so easily. Nick Mullens will once again get the start, and it will be up to him to engineer some offense against a ferocious Los Angeles pass rush. There is an outside chance that the 49ers could parlay some creative offense and stubborn defense into a closely fought affair, and there is also the ever-present threat of the Rams having a let down emotionally after the stirring Monday night conquest. As such, seven points seems like a nice spot to jump on for the 49ers.
Pick: San Francisco
NEW ORLEANS (-6) at DENVER (Over/Under 43.5)
Taysom Hill’s first start was a slow burn in many ways, beginning with some simple errors before he settled in and really looked like his true self. The New Orleans defense is the unit that deserves a lot of credit for their 8-2 record as it has gone strength to strength, especially from a pass-rushing perspective. Top to bottom, the Saints are one of the most well-constructed rosters in the league and should be able to take care of business in Denver.
Playing devil’s advocate, perhaps the Broncos could formulate a defensive game plan to stymie Hill’s game, plugging up timing passing lanes and playing tight man coverage. The flip side of that, of course, is that Hill would have some more room to roam as a runner. In what could be a low-scoring affair, expect the Saints defense to do some damage and give Hill the short fields he will need to get his team to 9-2.
Pick: New Orleans
KANSAS CITY (-3.5) at TAMPA BAY (Over/Under 53)
The Chiefs have had a points-spread tax assessed on them all season long, going 6-4 ATS with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points. That tells its own story. Patrick Mahomes II’ heroics on Sunday night had an inevitability to them, like no other result was even possible with him at the controls. The Bucs face a similar challenge this week: trying to stop the MVP frontrunner after surrendering yards for fun against the Rams. This line started at -3 and has since shifted to -3.5 as money comes in on the road team.
That could be the right play considering the Bucs’ struggles in big spots this season. Tom Brady, however, should like his chances to establish a rhythm and pick apart the Kansas City defense, a unit that has not been shy in surrendering yards and points in bunches. Antonio Brown is integrating well into the offense and looks to have established himself as Brady’s struggle target. Expect Tampa Bay to try to get the ground game going after a poor showing against the Rams. It is hard to bet against Mahomes, but the +3.5 makes the difference.
Pick: Tampa Bay
(Sunday Night) CHICAGO at GREEN BAY (-8.5) (Over/Under 45)
Matt Nagy’s seat could get a little bit hotter if the Bears’ recent slide continues in Green Bay. At 5-5 and losers of four straight games, the outlook is grim for Nick Foles and company. Defensively, the players face an uphill climb every week to prop up a dysfunctional offense. Could Nagy revert to Mitchell Trubisky if things go south in Lambeau Field? Anything is possible. With such a low-watt offense on tap, it is difficult to see the Bears getting out of their own way here.
That should pave the way for a straightforward win for the Packers, who will be popular in six-point teaser bets this week. A late fumble cost them what looked like a certain victory in Indianapolis, but the expectation is that they will not face similar late-game drama at home in prime time. The points-spread tax is a factor here, but it is hard to see anything but a Packers' waltz to victory. Beware angry Aaron Rodgers.
Pick: Green Bay
(Monday Night) SEATTLE (-5.5) at PHILADELPHIA (Over/Under 51)
The Eagles have gone 6-4 ATS dating back to 2016 when Doug Pederson took over in this very spot: home underdogs. Given their success of recent years, this is not a position they are familiar with. The Philadelphia fans are frustrated with the trajectory of their team, and justifiably so. The pieces, in many cases, are there; they are simply not meshing well. Carson Wentz has regressed and some of his worst habits are being accentuated due to the downward spiral of the team’s fortunes. The path ahead looks bleak.
Seattle represents the first of many tough opponents for the listless Eagles down the stretch, and the visitors have their own path to forge at 7-3. The Rams have pipped the Seahawks in the NFC West – for now – and a victory in Philly will be expected despite going 2-3 on the road this season. Russell Wilson and the offense have taken a step back in recent times but are capable of springing into life at any moment. Carlos Hyde, who gave the offense a steadying presence last week, should feature heavily in a tight affair. Philly will give it their best shot, but it will not be enough.
Pick: Philadelphia
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
It proved to be a decent week for the Best Bets, with a 2-2 output. With lines getting more efficient as the weeks go by, however, we must remain focused and stick to the process. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 TENNESSEE (+4) at INDIANAPOLIS
- 2 TAMPA BAY (+3.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
- 3 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+5.5) at BUFFALO
- 4 GREEN BAY (-8.5) vs. CHICAGO
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 12 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.64-1 ODDS)
- GREEN BAY (-8.5)
- LA CHARGERS (+5.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DOUBLE DOG (4-1 ODDS):
- ATLANTA – FOR THE WIN
- DETROIT – FOR THE WIN
- 3-TEAM 6-POINT TEASER (2.61-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (-2.5)
- CLEVELAND (-0.5)
- TENNESSEE (+10)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM MEGA MONEY LINE (4.86-1 ODDS)
- TAMPA BAY – FOR THE WIN
- NEW ORLEANS - FOR THE WIN
- CLEVELAND – FOR THE WIN
- DALLAS – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay, Atlanta
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 5-9
- SEASON OVERALL: 84-74-3 (52.6%)
- BEST BETS: 24-19-1, last week 2-2 (56.9%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 28-27-1, last week 2-3 (50.4%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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