Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
After a disappointing Week 9, the favorites bit back in Week 10, going 11-2 straight up (SU) and 7-5-1 against the spread (ATS). Teams like New Orleans and Tampa Bay were able to cover large numbers, while the Nick Chubb decision to veer out of bounds cost some gamblers dearly, not to mention the Hail Murray in Arizona. After a wild week, it is tempting to chase losses. Instead, we must approach Week 11 with cool heads to maximize our winnings.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday Night) ARIZONA at SEATTLE (-3) (Over/Under 58.5)
The Cardinals have hit the ‘over’ in three consecutive games. After a slow start – by their standards - to the season in terms of points, they have 32, 31, and 37 in their last three. With Kyler Murray running the show on the ground and through the air, this offense is nigh on impossible to corral – and especially for a defense as inept as Seattle’s. With the highest total on the board, Vegas is expecting fireworks in Seattle on Thursday night, and justifiably so.
The intriguing part about this match-up is how much of a downstream effect its result will have on the NFC West divisional race. The Cardinals, Seahawks, and Rams are tied at 6-3 in the standings, turning up the pressure for every divisional test. The Seahawks are laying three at home out of respect to their dominance over the years, and there is every reason to believe Russell Wilson could turn things around. If this is anything like the games Arizona has played recently, however, it will be close. Take the points and get the popcorn ready.
Pick: Arizona
CINCINNATI at WASHINGTON (-1.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
The Bengals have gone 5-3 ATS as the underdog this season, and they are getting plenty of respect despite being on the road this week, getting just 1.5 points. The rollicking they took at the hands of AFC North bully Pittsburgh will have served as a stark reminder of how far they must come to even go toe to toe with the big boys. Washington is more on their level, and despite the mismatch up front between the Bengals offensive line and Washington’s front, Joe Burrow will be fancied to best Alex Smith if this turns into an air show.
Despite the late defeat, Smith showed a lot of grit and executed well at times in Detroit, making the best of his backfield duo and getting the ball to Terry McLaurin regularly. The Football Team, even floundering at 2-7, is not out of the NFC East race – yet – and a win here would propel them to the same number of wins as both Philadelphia and New York. The formula is a controlled offensive approach with a defense pinning its ears back to get after Burrow.
Pick: Washington
ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS (-4.5) (Over/Under 51.5)
With news that Drew Brees could miss multiple weeks due to injury, the Saints could choose to deploy a Jameis Winston-Taysom Hill double act offense, or simply stick to the familiar script: Winston for the majority of snaps, with Hill making cameos in short yardage. Regardless of how Sean Payton plays it, there will be little trepidation even with Brees on the shelf. Alvin Kamara should find his way to 100+ total yards as usual, while the New Orleans defense should have the edge on Atlanta’s offensive line.
Coming off a bye, the Falcons will relish the chance to put a dent in New Orleans’ aspirations for the top seed in the NFC. These teams have played some memorable games at the Louisiana Superdome over the years, so it would not be at all surprising if the Falcons keep things close throughout. Calvin Ridley is expected to return after a mid-foot sprain, and with he and Julio Jones in tow, Matt Ryan should get into a rhythm. The Saints are 3-5 ATS as favorites in 2020, so the edge goes to the visitors.
Pick: Atlanta
PITTSBURGH (-10) at JACKSONVILLE (Over/Under 47)
The Steelers remained unbeaten after a comprehensive demolition of Cincinnati last week, taking them one step closer to the coveted top seed in the AFC – and with it, a bye in the first round of the reconstructed playoffs. A trip to Jacksonville, however, may not be the cakewalk that everyone expects. Cast your minds back to just a couple of weeks ago when Pittsburgh barely beat the Cowboys, arguably a team or equal talent. The Steelers were laying close to 14 points in that tilt; here, 10 points is fair, but given the propensity of Mike Tomlin’s team to underperform against lesser opponents, this is a potential trap.
The Jake Luton Express is set to continue in Week 11, with the rookie showing some moxie in Green Bay to keep the Jaguars competitive throughout. The deficiencies in his game came out for all to see in moments, but he is at least capable of finding match-ups and keeping the offense viable. Jacksonville’s defense, however, will be powerless to resist against the versatile Steelers attack. The least we can say about the Jaguars is that they have fought hard of late, so taking the points is the wisest option. A six-point teaser with Pittsburgh down to -4 is also an appealing approach.
Pick: Jacksonville
NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) at HOUSTON (Over/Under 47.5)
The line on this game stinks, ladies and gentlemen. The look-ahead line, for context, was Houston laying three points at home. After a primetime game that saw the Patriots knock off the Ravens, however, that has been completely flipped, with the visitors now laying 2.5 points. Typically, a massive line move such as this is one to be wary of, as Vegas and the market overreacts to one data point. It is not as if Bill Belichick’s team has solved all of its issues despite the marquee win.
The more logical reason for the line move, of course, is that Houston is simply not equipped to deal with this opponent given their defensive deficiencies. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt ran all over the Texans last week, and one assumes Belichick will like his team’s chances of bullying his opponent in a similar way. Damien Harris provides proper punch on the ground for New England, with Cam Newton pitching in along the way. Note that the Patriots have gone 2-3 ATS as favorites this season. Even still, the words hot knife through butter come to mind.
Pick: New England
PHILADELPHIA at CLEVELAND (-3) (Over/Under 47.5)
For the Eagles, the questions are swirling about their head coach and quarterback combination and how long this lackluster show should continue. Doug Pederson has credit in the bank after the Super Bowl victory, of course, but the consistently underperforming Carson Wentz must be a major concern for the veteran coach. Despite everything, the Eagles could seal the NFC East with a handful of wins down the stretch, with this week’s clash in Cleveland one of their most winnable.
The Browns would run all day anyway, but the Giants’ success on the ground against the Eagles will give them all the encouragement they need. If the weather is a factor, the two-headed backfield of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, both of whom went over 100 yards rushing last week, should thrive. The only game script that would benefit Philadelphia would be one that forces Baker Mayfield to throw and throw often. Given their recent struggles, however, that seems unlikely. The Browns have gone 2-4 ATS as favorites this season, but they are fancied to hold serve.
Pick: Cleveland
DETROIT at CAROLINA (-2) (Over/Under 49)
After a brief scare following a low hit on Teddy Bridgewater’s leg, the Panthers breathed a sigh of relief as they found out their quarterback had suffered just an MCL sprain. By all accounts, he will be ready to suit up against the Lions. The uncertainty surrounding his status has a lot of the sportsbooks holding back on a line, with Carolina laying two points the only one on the board. Despite brave efforts over the past weeks, it appears Matt Rhule’s team is running out of steam. The offense will almost certainly be without Christian McCaffrey again this week, while his backup Mike Davis has a thumb injury. Still, this is a good bounce-back spot for the home team after the embarrassment of last week against the Bucs.
As for Detroit, inconsistency has plagued them all season. Even after establishing a commanding lead against Washington, their defense could not put the clamps down and they needed a last-gasp field goal to squeak out a victory. Matthew Stafford should be able to find open holes to exploit in the Panthers secondary, especially given the injury problems for top cornerback Donte Jackson. With little pass rush to be concerned about from Carolina, this could be a high-scoring effort from the visitors. Given everything, however, the Panthers get the slight edge at home.
Pick: Carolina
TENNESSEE at BALTIMORE (-6.5) (Over/Under 49)
The gloss has come off the Baltimore Ravens. While they are more than equipped to seal a postseason berth and perhaps progress to the Divisional round, there is something missing – a je ne sais quoi element – that is hard to put one’s finger on. The loss to the Patriots in a deluge is certainly a forgivable one, but there is a fair criticism out there that, when they are down by double digits, they struggle to come back. They are frontrunners, built to get on top of opponents early and grind them down with the ground attack. This week, they face the team that ended their 2019 playoff run looking to get their mojo back for the stretch run.
The Titans have been sloppy of late and, even at 6-3, look poised for a late-season swoon. Their recent lack of consistency has prompted Vegas to make this a -6.5 line in Baltimore’s favor, a generous one considering the Ravens’ struggles. Perhaps the 10 days between games will be good for Tennessee to give them perspective on how to maximize what they have over the final few games. Defensively, they will need to summon their best effort to slow down the Baltimore rushing attack – or things could get away from them quickly.
Pick: Baltimore
NY JETS at LA CHARGERS (-9) (Over/Under 48)
The Jets summoned up a valiant effort against the Patriots a couple of weeks ago, taking them to the brink as Joe Flacco rolled back the years with a vintage performance. With a talented receiving trio of Breshad Perriman, Jamison Crowder, and rookie Denzel Mims, suddenly this offense is bordering on viable. After failing to cover the spread in its first six games, the Jets have covered in two of the past three. Momentum? Perhaps, and the Jets may fancy their chances against a Chargers team that cannot get out of its own way.
Justin Herbert has been nothing short of a sensation, but the wheels came off last week in Miami. It was not a disaster by any means, but the bounce-back could come quickly against this week’s opponent. With a relatively low point total, and with the Chargers favored by nine points, the smart play here appears to be the total. Los Angeles has gone over in six straight games, while the Jets have gone under in four of their past five. Do not be surprised if the Jets can get some points on the board to make this total of 48 look odd in retrospect.
Pick: New York
MIAMI (-3) at DENVER (Over/Under 46)
The Dolphins have a little something going, don’t they? Brian Flores’ team has covered the spread in a staggering 16 of the past 21 games. With Tua in tow, complementary football is the name of the game: a dominant defense has put the rookie passer in good situations, and he in turn has rewarded them with his sharp play. It is not a surprise, therefore, to see the Dolphins laying points on the road. This is a team poised for a playoff spot if it can just take care of business in games like this.
There are question marks over Drew Lock’s status for this game, which could force Brett Rypien into action. Vic Fangio’s team has gone 11-7 as an underdog and seems to fancy that role. Given Miami’s recent defensive efforts, however, it appears unlikely that the Broncos will be able to hang tough. The altitude is always a factor, of course, but the Dolphins will likely have too much here.
Pick: Miami
DALLAS at MINNESOTA (-7.5) (Over/Under 49.5)
Kirk Cousins banished his Monday Night Football demons against the Bears, though we should not be tossing confetti to celebrate the veteran passer’s achievement. It was, after all, just the Bears. To get back to 5-5 and to have a legitimate chance at sneaking into the playoffs would be quite another achievement. The Vikings are laying more than a touchdown with some sportsbooks, and who can blame them considering the catastrophic Cowboys are coming to town?
Dallas is 0-4 against the spread when playing on the road this season and could extend that run against a Dalvin Cook-led attack that could make mincemeat of the Cowboys’ front seven. Andy Dalton’s return could at least restore some respectability to the offense, but to reliably bet on that happening is not a good strategy. The points spread tax is high on the Vikings here given the opponent, but the extra half point is no deterrent.
Pick: Minnesota
GREEN BAY at INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) (Over/Under 52)
The Packers will hope to raise their game and record a statement win in Indianapolis, putting to bed any doubts that they are ‘soft’ against the run. It will not be an easy ride, though the Colts offense is lacking a punch right now and its ineptitude could play into Green Bay’s hands. A dink-and-dunk approach from Philip Rivers would suit a Packers defense that has shown its flaws in recent games.
And yet the Colts have the blueprint – especially in their front seven – to create problems for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are 6-3 against the spread this season and appear, on paper, to be the better team overall. As Vegas has it pegged, however, this one qualifies as an old-fashioned toss-up. Given the fine balance, the lean is to take the points and move along.
Pick: Green Bay
(Sunday Night) KANSAS CITY (-7) at LAS VEGAS (Over/Under 56.5)
The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games, hence the heavy favorite tag this week in Las Vegas. This is despite the Raiders knocking off the Chiefs at Arrowhead a few weeks ago 40-32 in a game that wasn’t as close as the scoreboard indicated. Andy Reid generally performs well off bye weeks, so there is every reason to believe a degree of Chiefs revenge is on the cards.
The Raiders are two games back on their opponents in the standings, but a victory here would vault them into a position to steal the division down the stretch. Derek Carr will need to be as aggressive as he was a few weeks ago and utilize the deep passing attack to exploit a suspect Chiefs secondary. Kansas City’s pedigree in the recent past is enough to give them the edge here, though laying the touchdown is tough.
Pick: Kansas City
(Monday Night) LA RAMS at TAMPA BAY (-3.5) (Over/Under 48)
An intriguing Monday Night Football match-up concludes Week 11, with the upwardly mobile Rams traveling to Tampa. Though not the flashiest team in the playoff hunt, Sean McVay’s team has quietly transformed into perhaps the most balanced team. Facing a Tampa Bay pass rush that can overwhelm opponents at times, Jared Goff and his head coach will have to be in sync.
But perhaps the marquee match-up will be when the Bucs have the ball, and how the Rams will be able to slow them down. Jalen Ramsey will be deployed on Mike Evans, more than likely, but the Rams have a talented group of cornerbacks who can disrupt Tom Brady’s rhythm. With the NFC South very much still in play, the onus is on the Bucs to perform. The Bucs have gone ‘over’ the total in six of their last 10 games, so the total is appealing. As for the side, the Rams may have just enough to keep it close.
Pick: Los Angeles
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
It proved to be a good week for the Best Bets, with a 3-1 output. With lines getting more efficient as the weeks go by, however, we must remain focused and stick to the process. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 MIAMI (-3) at DENVER
- 2 NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) at HOUSTON
- 3 NEW YORK JETS (+9) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
- 4 LOS ANGELES RAMS (+3.5) at TAMPA BAY
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 11 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.5-1 ODDS)
- LA RAMS (+3.5)
- NEW YORK JETS (+9)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DOUBLE DOG (4-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY – FOR THE WIN
- ARIZONA – FOR THE WIN
- 2-TEAM OVER DOUBLE (2.61-1 ODDS):
- NY JETS/LA CHARGERS – OVER 48
- LA RAMS/TAMPA BAY – OVER 48
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM MEGA MONEY LINE (4.86-1 ODDS)
- MIAMI – FOR THE WIN
- MINNESOTA - FOR THE WIN
- NEW ENGLAND – FOR THE WIN
- CAROLINA – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Miami, New England, NY Jets, LA Rams, Kansas City
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 7-6-1
- SEASON OVERALL: 79-65-3 (55.3%)
- BEST BETS: 22-17-1, last week 3-1 (56.9%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 26-24-1, last week 3-2 (52.4%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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