Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Week 5 proved to be a bounce-back in the standings for yours truly, with an 8-6 record against the spread as some big favorites were taken down. Being able to discern which teams are trendy – and are given a points spread tax as a result – can yield dividends, such as with Kansas City’s 12-point line last week. With games moving due to Covid-19, the game of musical chairs has stopped for Week 6, so let’s dive into the slate.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
DENVER at NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) (Over/Under 45.5)
With a lot of uncertainty still surrounding this game, a handful of sportsbooks have released preliminary lines, making New England a strong favorite. The Patriots could have Cam Newton back, but the likelihood is that either Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer will get the nod to start. Truthfully, it may not matter who the signal-caller is, as New England should have their way with a Denver team that, even if Drew Lock returns, has its hands full.
It is worth noting that the Broncos are 7-3 as the underdog in their last 10 under Vic Fangio, but the prospect of either Lock, Brett Rypien or Jeff Driskel summoning up the necessary effort to outsmart defensive guru Bill Belichick is a daunting one. The 8.5-point line makes this a game to include in teasers, as you can get the line down to -2.5 or -1.5 in New England’s favor. The total is also appealing, as the Patriots’ ground attack was given a boost with the emergence of Damien Harris.
Pick: New England
HOUSTON at TENNESSEE (-5.5) (No total)
The Titans face into a short week having taken care of business to the tune of 40+ points against the Bills on Tuesday night. Mike Vrabel praised the culture of his team for producing such a crisp performance despite a lack of practice heading into the game against an undefeated team. It would be easy to perhaps let the guard down for Tennessee facing off against a 1-4 Houston outfit that has done little to inspire this season. Though Derrick Henry did not get into much of a groove last week – devastating stiff arm on Josh Norman notwithstanding – Ryan Tannehill once again showed why the Titans placed their faith in him.
The Texans and Romeo Crennel have their work cut out for them, with the Titans pass rush against the Houston offensive line a mismatch on paper. Deshaun Watson will have to be disciplined and emphasize ball security to stand any chance. With the early line at -5.5, the lean must go in Tennessee’s favor as they look poised to continue their perfect start to the year.
Pick: Tennessee
CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH (-4.5) (Over/Under 50)
The Browns are 4-1 after taking care of business against the Colts, a situation that even the most optimistic of Cleveland diehards wouldn’t have envisaged prior to the season. Looking through the team’s upcoming schedule, there are a lot of winnable games. The injury bug bit hard on Sunday, however, injecting some uncertainty into the availability of key players this week. Since Baker Mayfield took over as the starting quarterback in 2018, the Browns are 6-6 against the spread as the away underdog in the AFC North. The Browns may never have a better opportunity to upset the apple cart in this bruising division.
In their way, however, stands a Steelers team seemingly firing on all cylinders – at least when it matters most. The injury to Diontae Johnson would have been a blow to most offenses; for Pittsburgh, it simply led to a coming-out party for rookie sensation Chase Claypool. Ben Roethlisberger has settled into a rhythm, but he is having to do more than perhaps he predicted as the defense has creaked at times. The Steelers are 3-1 against the spread this season but face a Browns outfit that has scored 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1968. This is a popcorn game in the early slate, but the slight lean goes to Cleveland with the +4.5 and the under.
Pick: Cleveland
BALTIMORE (-7) at PHILADELPHIA (Over/Under 46.5)
This is not the near-untouchable Baltimore team we saw last season, but the ceiling is still there in any given week. Cincinnati did a decent job defensively to slow down the Ravens’ ground attack, which is fundamental to their success with the play-action game and forcing defenses to lose their discipline and gap control. Philadelphia has given up 29 points per game (23rd in the league), a number that should encourage the Ravens offense.
Vegas has not lost an ounce of faith in the road team, tagging them as seven-point road favorites. Baltimore is 23-20-3 (53.5%) against the spread under John Harbaugh as the away favorite, though that number is 6-2 since Lamar Jackson took over as the starter in 2019. The Eagles defense has the resources to slow down the Ravens, but the onus will be on Carson Wentz to hold up his end of the bargain. Despite their streaky offense, Philadelphia should be able to keep this close enough on the scoreboard.
Pick: Philadelphia
WASHINGTON at NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) (Over/Under 44.5)
The Washington Football Team was in the spotlight last week upon the unexpected return of Alex Smith to the line-up, but the mud-soaked field and a fearsome Rams pass rush quickly put the story to bed. Consigned to another defeat, Ron Rivera has said that Kyle Allen will remain the starter if healthy. After a red-hot start to the campaign against Philadelphia, things have cratered for Washington, but all is not lost in an eminently winnable NFC East. The pass rush could be an X-factor here, as Daniel Jones continues to be careless with the football.
As for the Giants, their miserable run continues. Joe Judge has a lot of work to do in turning this ship around, but there are few better remedies for an ailing team than Washington in their current guise. One must wonder if Judge will have a quiet word with Jones to emphasize ball security, perhaps planting a seed of doubt in the young quarterback’s mind. If New York has its way, Jones will be able to take a supporting role in a comfortable afternoon culminating in a victory. The Giants are just 1-8 against the spread in their last nine home games.
Pick: Washington
ATLANTA at MINNESOTA (-3.5) (Over/Under 55.5)
Raheem Morris has taken over as interim head coach in Atlanta after Dan Quinn became the second head coach to get his marching orders in this young season. Arthur Blank called it simply ‘a lack of winning’, with general manager Thomas Dimitroff also getting his pink slip. This, much like Houston last week, would seem to be a perfect situation to bounce back for Atlanta, who could welcome back Julio Jones. The half-point in the spread is particularly attractive, as is the over; Atlanta has gone 6-3 to the over in their last nine away games.
The Vikings will have to pull themselves off the mat after being floored by the Seahawks in stunning fashion. The offense is humming, Dalvin Cook or no Dalvin Cook, but they needed to hammer home their advantage on the scoreboard last week and they couldn’t manage it. The smart bet here is for a back and forth contest that could go down to the wire, making a lean to the points (+3.5) the call.
Pick: Atlanta
DETROIT (-1.5) at JACKSONVILLE (Over/Under 53)
In one of the more baffling lines of this week, the Lions, who are 1-12 straight up in their last 13 games, are road favorites against a comparable team in the Jaguars. Matt Patricia’s seat would certainly heat up if this team were unable to pull off this victory, something that is by no means guaranteed. The bye week should see Detroit come into this game refreshed and healthier, but their issues will not simply evaporate. Jacksonville’s offense is more than capable of putting up points on a defense that has yielded 31.8 points per game.
Gardner Minshew may not always lift the Jaguars as a team, but he gives them a fighting chance in every game. Defensively, however, the Jags are a mess and have given up 29.4 points per game, making the over a very appealing proposition. The Lions have done little to garner much belief in their ability to string together solid games, let alone solid quarters. The home team and the over have to be the plays.
Pick: Jacksonville
CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS (-7.5) (Over/Under 45.5)
The opening line on this game was Colts by 9.5 points, but that quickly changed in the aftermath of their loss to Cleveland. The bandwagon feels a little lighter, to say the least. The more data points we get on these teams, the more we can make accurate predictions of just how good they are. In this case, we discovered that the Colts need a certain game script to play out to avoid putting too much on an aging Philip Rivers’ plate. There is more than enough talent on this Indianapolis roster to take care of business against lesser opponents, however.
The Bengals would be among such teams, plucky but ultimately not at the level required to be a threat to most teams. It is notable, though, that the Bengals have covered in three of their last four games after an opening loss to Los Angeles. The line move here keeps that crucial half-point in play, making the visitors an interesting proposition. Joe Burrow’s offensive line is a major concern against such a strong defensive front, however, meaning a lean to the Colts – even with the 7.5-point spread – is the wise move. Expect a bounce-back display from the home team.
Pick: Indianapolis
CHICAGO at CAROLINA (-2.5) (Over/Under 44)
This is not the Panthers team that many were expecting to see this season. During the team’s three-game winning streak, the offense has averaged 25 points per game, while the defense has surrendered just 17.7. Matt Rhule appears to have quickly established a solid team that is capable of being more than the sum of its parts: a plucky underdog with the upside to knock off fancied opponents. Vegas got burned in consecutive weeks with Carolina winning straight up as underdogs; they have now corrected things slightly, making Rhule’s team a slight home favorite.
The Bears are 2-0 straight up and against the spread in their two road outings this season, averaging 28.5 points per game. The offense was not exactly humming last Thursday against Tampa Bay, but it came to life in the late stages. Nick Foles still has the propensity to take risks, but Matt Nagy’s offense could have some success against a Carolina defense that may be short of a few defensive players due to injury. Either the Bears are set for a 5-1 start, or the Panthers are set for a 4-2 start. Who would have thought that? The under has hit in Carolina’s last three games, but 44 seems a little low. The over and the home team get the nod.
Pick: Carolina
NEW YORK JETS at MIAMI (-8.5) (Over/Under 47.5)
The Dolphins have covered in their last four meetings with the Jets, something they will fancy their chances of repeating this time. The Jets parted ways with Le’Veon Bell on Tuesday night, hammering another nail in the coffin of their doomed season. Sam Darnold could return, but that is unclear at the time of writing, so it could be Joe Flacco’s show once again. Either way, the Jets have failed to cover their first five games of 2020 and it is a little surprising that this line isn’t higher.
Miami’s demolition of San Francisco was hugely impressive, with their defense showing up to complement a precision passing performance from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Both Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida should be fed the rock often to wear down the Jets, with Fitzpatrick peppering passes all over the field. Miami could make a fast start and never look back, with a back-door cover for the hapless Jets extremely unlikely.
Pick: Miami
GREEN BAY (-1.5) at TAMPA BAY (Over/Under 54)
The Packers have started the season 4-0 straight up and against the spread, impressing each week as Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers continue to build a strong bond. Indeed, Rodgers is firmly in the early MVP race and could bolster his case this week with a signature win in Tampa against Tom Brady and crew. The line for this game varies widely across sportsbooks, with some at -2.5 in Green Bay’s favor and others at -1.
The smart play here may be to simply avoid the side and bet on the total. Green Bay is 5-1 to the over since late 2019, while Bruce Arians teams are now 30-14 to the over since late 2016, taking in his time with the Cardinals. Expect a back and forth affair, with both defenses struggling to contain the veteran quarterbacks. This result could have huge implications for the NFC playoff picture at large.
Pick: Green Bay
(Sunday Night) LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3) at SAN FRANCISCO (Over/Under 50)
There is nothing quite like sweeping the NFC East to get your season off to a perfect start. Well, near perfect. The Rams found a groove against Washington, with Aaron Donald and the defense chipping in with a series of sacks, hits, and hurries. There is a sense that Sean McVay’s team has been flying under the radar despite a 4-1 start, but this game should provide all the motivation they need. These teams have, after all, locked horns and produced some epic duels in the past. The Rams have gone 12-8 (60%) against the spread as road favorites against the NFC West during McVay’s tenure.
As for the 49ers, questions abound about the status and readiness of Jimmy Garoppolo, who took a beating and did not look comfortable against the Dolphins, throwing a pair of interceptions. Kyle Shanahan did not hesitate to protect his quarterback, benching him at half-time. At 2-3 and staring up at division rivals Seattle and L.A., this is a massive game in prime for San Francisco. The Rams defense has yielded 19 or fewer points in four of five games, placing the focus squarely on the 49ers offense to produce. This is a good spot for a bounce-back for the home team, however, with their backs against the wall and the entire country watching.
Pick: San Francisco
(Monday Night) KANSAS CITY (-3) at BUFFALO (Over/Under 55)
The early line has the Chiefs as road favorites after the Bills fell in embarrassing fashion to the Titans on Tuesday night. The two extra days of rest represent a huge advantage for the visitors, who will be keen to get back on track after a rare loss in the AFC West against Las Vegas. The trend is still ridiculously strong for the Chiefs, however, going 13-1 straight up and 12-2 in their last 14 games. The Chiefs were underdogs on the road in Baltimore this season and burned the sportsbooks; this time, they have corrected things.
Despite the shorter week to prepare, it would be unwise to count out the Bills, however. Josh Allen may have made a crucial error with his interception on Tuesday night, but he also pulled a rabbit out of his hat on many third downs, with the announcers comparing him to Patrick Mahomes II. It will be a treat to see these two derring-do passers square off. The total looks a little high, so the play here is the Chiefs.
Pick: Kansas City
(Monday Night) ARIZONA (-2.5) at DALLAS (Over/Under 54.5)
The Dak Prescott injury makes the offseason pick-up of Andy Dalton look all the wiser, with the Cowboys in a position to seize control of the NFC East. Dalton is surrounded by an enviable group of playmakers, even if the offensive line is in flux. While the upside of the unit takes a hit without Prescott in tow, the Cowboys being a home underdog against a team as inconsistent as Arizona is a little puzzling.
That line is likely to be corrected during the week as public money flows in Dallas’ direction. While the Cardinals defense ranks in the top five in points allowed, giving up just 20.4 per game, they have not yet faced an offense as potent as the Cowboys’. Given the narrative of the team playing for Prescott and with an opportunity to get back to .500, back Jerry’s men to get the job done.
Pick: Dallas
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
The best bets went 2-2 last week as Indianapolis was upset by Cleveland and Joe Burrow and the Bengals failed to get even a back door cover. Lines are getting more efficient by the week and Vegas is applying ‘points spread taxes’ to some teams. Let’s jump into Week 6’s best bets to get back on track. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 DALLAS (+2.5) vs. ARIZONA
- 2 MIAMI (-8.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- 3 CAROLINA (-2.5) vs. CHICAGO
- 4 KANSAS CITY (-3) at BUFFALO
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 6 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM DOUBLE (1.76-1 ODDS)
- DALLAS – FOR THE WIN
- MIAMI (-2.5) 6-POINT TEASER
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 3-TEAM TEASER (2.42-1 ODDS):
- MIAMI (-2.5)
- INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5)
- KANSAS CITY (+3)
- 2-TEAM OVER DOUBLE (2.5-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY/TAMPA BAY – OVER 54
- CHICAGO/CAROLINA – OVER 44
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 3-TEAM MEGA MONEY LINE (3.34-1 ODDS)
- DALLAS – FOR THE WIN
- CAROLINA – FOR THE WIN
- MIAMI – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Miami, Carolina, Dallas, Kansas City, Green Bay
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 8-6
- SEASON OVERALL: 43-32-2 (56.5%)
- BEST BETS: 10-9-1, last week 2-2 (53.8%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 13-12-1, last week 2-2 (52.3%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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