Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
A wild and unpredictable week of action resulted in a personal 7-8-1 record against the spread for yours truly, a feat to be avoided in the coming weeks. The lines are getting sharper, however, forcing us to make tougher choices – and perhaps, in some cases, to avoid games entirely. Week 4 throws up some similar headscratchers, but that will not be enough for us to shy away.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday Night) DENVER (-2.5) at NY JETS (Over/Under 40)
Two teams that rank in the bottom three in points per game meet in a Thursday night match-up that, on paper at least, looks far from a barnburner. Considering the poor quality of play the Broncos and Jets have put forth over the first three weeks, in fact, a snooze fest could ensue. Jeff Driskel was wisely yanked from the starting line-up late last Sunday, a move designed to preserve him for a week with a short turnaround for preparation. While the Broncos haven’t been awful thus far, there is a stench of losing that this franchise can’t seem to get off its back.
The Jets are another team in complete freefall. If relegation existed in the NFL, they would be a prime contender – along with their neighbors, the Giants – to be jettisoned out the trap door. Sam Darnold is in a horrific situation, throwing to receivers who were not in the team’s plans not so long ago. Defensively, things have spiraled out of control as well. Vegas has the Broncos as narrow favorites, a reflection of a lack of conviction about either team’s ability to string a competent performance together. This is a stay-away game, but if you must wager on it, there would be a lean to Denver.
Pick: Denver
BALTIMORE (-13.5) at WASHINGTON (Over/Under 51)
The talking heads are already out in full force asking what is wrong with the Ravens offense. The answer is more complicated than a simple one-word solution. The Monday night loss to the Chiefs is a blow in the larger AFC playoff picture for Baltimore, but it is by no means a blueprint to take them down. Rather, it was a virtuoso display by the opposing quarterback, offensive miscues, and the Chiefs defense tightening up at key moments. Expect Lamar Jackson and company to take out their frustrations on Washington, even with a six-day turnaround.
On paper, this looks to be a decent spot for Washington, but if Dwayne Haskins – who had a nightmarish turnover-fest of a game in Cleveland – remains the starter, it may not last long. Like Mitchell Trubisky last week, Haskins should be on guard for a potential benching. Kyle Allen may not offer much more, frankly, making this a stay-away at -13.5 in Baltimore’s favor. If you have to pick a side, the Ravens should get the cover, but it could be a nervous ending with the danger of a back-door cover from Washington.
Pick: Baltimore
PITTSBURGH at TENNESSEE (-1) (Over/Under 47)
UPDATE: This game has been called off until later in the season due to positive Covid-19 tests.
The Steelers are 2-1 against the spread through three weeks, with an average margin of victory of 7.3 points. The doubters are quick to jump on Mike Tomlin’s team for the scrappy nature of their victories, but there is little doubt about the top-to-bottom quality of the roster. Ben Roethlisberger is getting more comfortable by the week, the offensive line has great chemistry and the defense ranks fifth in the league in points per game allowed (19.3).
Their resume is impressive, and it explains why Vegas has installed the Steelers as just one-point underdogs in Nashville. The Titans, though 3-0, have squeaked out a couple of victories and the implication is that the sharps in the desert don’t necessarily buy what the Titans are selling. A coming down to earth could be on the cards, certainly, for Mike Vrabel’s team. In Pittsburgh’s favor is this compelling statistic: under Mike Tomlin, a period stretching back to 2007, the Steelers are 36-21-3 against the spread as the underdog, a cover percentage of 63.2. In a battle that could determine AFC seeding, bet on the Men of Steel to exert their will.
Pick: Pittsburgh
LA CHARGERS at TAMPA BAY (-7) (Over/Under 45)
Lost in the kerfuffle of the Buccaneers’ new star man at quarterback and his band of merry men on offense is the shutdown work of the defense. That unit made mincemeat of the Broncos on Sunday, building on the momentum of the previous performance against Carolina. Tom Brady is helping them out by limiting turnovers, but this defense has the horses to take over games on their own. That may be the case against the Chargers and rookie passer Justin Herbert, with Los Angeles turning the ball over four times in Week 3 – against the Panthers, of all teams.
The Bucs will fancy their chances of creating havoc up front for Herbert, but the rookie will not go down without a fight, as we have seen in his first couple of starts. Vegas has done well to make this a seven-point line, just enough to tempt us to lean towards the Chargers. Assuming the line doesn’t go past -7, the smart play here is to lay the points and believe in the trends of rookie quarterbacks against elite defenses. Spoiler alert: it doesn’t end well for Herbert.
Pick: Tampa Bay
SEATTLE (-7) at MIAMI (Over/Under 54.5)
Russell Wilson is a machine. There, I said it. With the Seattle defense seemingly incapable of generating a pass rush and preserving a lead, Wilson has stepped up again and again this season, putting on a masterclass at the quarterback position. The Seahawks are laying a massive seven points on the road in Miami, which basically means that Vegas has them pegged as an elite team. It helps that they are scoring a ridiculous 37 points per game, something the Dolphins will have trouble matching, to say the least.
Yes, we cannot deny how impressive Ryan Fitzpatrick’s game management was on Thursday night last week, but he will be forced to give it some gas against the Seahawks. The high total of 54.5 makes this one of the more intriguing games for the neutrals to sit back and watch, with Fitzmagic certain to pull a few rabbits out of the hat to keep this game somewhat competitive. Is it possible that the Seahawks are due for a letdown game? Absolutely, but betting against Wilson is simply not a wise tactic. Seattle – until proven otherwise.
Pick: Seattle
MINNESOTA at HOUSTON (-4) (Over/Under 52)
To borrow a phrase from the world of wrestling, this has the makings of a Loser Leaves Town match. Both Minnesota and Houston came into the season with middling expectations in some quarters, with a select few experts suggesting the Vikings could win the NFC North. Those predictions, like so many before them, have crashed and burned amid a series of forgettable losses. Mike Zimmer managed to rally the troops last week for a rousing display in defeat, but that will not cut it. Kirk Cousins looks a shell of his former ‘You like that?!’ self.
The Texans have been installed as four-point favorites and should be able to move the ball effectively against a soft Vikings defense. Deshaun Watson gets the nod over Cousins every time in games of this magnitude, with both teams knowing that a loss – and 0-4 – is the death knell for their young season. Houston will scan the AFC South standings and fancy their chances of getting back into the mix, even if they have to do it the hard way.
Pick: Houston
NEW ORLEANS (-4) at DETROIT (Over/Under 54)
The Saints defense was supposed to be the backbone of the team, the unit that allowed an aging Drew Brees to take some pressure off his shoulders. Instead, they got shredded by an undermanned Green Bay offense missing Davante Adams, a hole the Saints offense could not climb out of. Despite both teams being 1-2, the Saints have not lost the respect of the Vegas sharps, who make them a four-point road favorite. Under Sean Payton, dating back to 2006, the Saints are 31-28 (52.5%) against the spread as a road favorite, with an average margin of victory of 7.8 points. Expect a better defensive effort to anchor this performance.
The Lions offense, however, may have a rebuttal in the form of a revitalized Matthew Stafford, who was visibly more comfortable throwing the ball with Kenny Golladay back on the field. The road win over the Cardinals last week was a massive coup for Matt Patricia, whose seat would have gotten a lot hotter with an 0-3 start. The high total of 54 is fair considering the potency of both offenses, and there is no reason to believe the Lions can’t keep things interesting.
Pick: Detroit
CLEVELAND at DALLAS (-5.5) (Over/Under 56)
The Browns - helped tremendously by five Washington turnovers - covered the -7 spread last week, but there are cracks in the façade. Offensively, the Nick Chubb-Kareem Hunt tandem is dominating behind a stellar offensive line, but Baker Mayfield still has the potential to make some critical mistakes. Dallas ranks 23rd against the run, however, something that will be music to the ears of Kevin Stefanski and the coaching staff. How the Browns manage defensively against the explosive Dallas offense, however, could tell the tale.
The Cowboys offense ranks eighth in points per game (29.3) and should pose serious matchup problems for the Browns, who have surrendered points in bunches to competent quarterbacks. The total of 56 suggests a back and forth affair, but if the Cowboys can get into a positive game script, the Mayfield train may come off the rails. Which team gets into their preferred rhythm first will be decisive. The difference is that Dallas has shown they can win in multiple ways.
Pick: Dallas
JACKSONVILLE at CINCINNATI (-3) (Over/Under 45.5)
The loss to Miami last Thursday night was a chastening one for the Jaguars, who had come into the game on a high. The concerning part in watching the game was how inept the offense looked without D.J. Chark, and how Gardner Minshew invited pressure and seemed to shrink into himself rather than rise to the occasion. The Jaguars have a below-average defense as well, giving up 28 points per game. The fortunate thing is that their opponent this week has some flaws to exploit, too.
The Bengals pulled off an improbable tie against the Eagles, with Joe Burrow taking severe punishment from the Philadelphia front four along the way. There is an element of unsustainability to the Bengals’ pass protection, and one must wonder whether Burrow will last the season at this rate. There will be an emphasis on getting Joe Mixon going in this game, taking some pressure off Burrow, who has attempted 47 passes per game. A difficult one to handicap, but the home team gets the slight lean.
Pick: Cincinnati
INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) at CHICAGO (Over/Under 44.5)
After a stumble on the opening weekend, the Colts have gotten into their stride against a pair of inferior opponents. The Bears represent a team more on their level, with the confirmation of Nick Foles as the starting quarterback spicing up the offense. Despite that news, Indianapolis has been made a road favorite, with Frank Reich’s team going 2-3 against the spread in that scenario since he took over. The Colts defense is a nasty unit that will keep things within reach for Philip Rivers and company.
The wildcard here is, of course, Foles. With a full week to prepare, will the Colts be able to stifle the Bears offense, a unit that has lost one of its most valuable players in Tarik Cohen? Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller will be quietly ecstatic that Trubisky has been ousted from the line-up, with Foles likely to pepper them with targets and be more aggressive in general. The home team makes an intriguing punt, but the Colts have a trust factor right now that the Bears simply do not.
Pick: Indianapolis
ARIZONA (-4) at CAROLINA (Over/Under 51)
The multiple turnover game suffered by Kyler Murray last week will give the Panthers coaching staff some hope that they can force some errors this time around. Carolina’s defensive effort against the Chargers was more aggressive, featuring more blitzes and a more productive pass rush after an anemic couple of weeks. How Phil Snow, the Panthers defensive coordinator, chooses to handle Murray will be a fascinating game within the game. He has familiarity with the Cardinals passer, after all, from his days at Baylor.
Matt Rhule has his first victory as an NFL head coach, but he will be keen to tidy up the red zone inefficiencies that plagued his team in Los Angeles. Joey Slye’s leg got a good workout, but Teddy Bridgewater’s conservative pass selections in the red zone took points off the board. The Cardinals defense is not the strongest unit, opening a window of opportunity for the Panthers to get into gear. Missing Christian McCaffrey stunts their upside, but Mike Davis did a fine job in relief. This is a decent spot for the Panthers to record back to back victories.
Pick: Carolina
NY GIANTS at LA RAMS (-13) (Over/Under 48.5)
Interestingly, the Giants are 11-3 (78.6%) against the spread as the road underdog dating back to 2018. Admittedly this was prior to Joe Judge’s arrival, but the men from New York have made a habit of keeping games close. The 2020 version of the Giants may not be able to repeat the feat, however. The rushing attack has been putrid, forcing Daniel Jones to take on everything himself. The mistakes are still peppered throughout Jones’ game, putting the defense in short fields again and again. That Vegas has made the Giants a massive 13-point underdog is as much a shot at their ineptitude as it is a nod to the Rams’ superiority on paper.
Indeed, Sean McVay’s team should fancy their chances to romp against the hapless Giants. The loss to Buffalo last week will sting, but the upside is how well his team fought back from a deficit and kept swinging. Aaron Donald continues to show the world why he is the premier defensive star of his generation; he should give the Giants linemen fits. The point spread is too high to confidently wager, so the safe play is to take the points and see where it takes us.
Pick: New York
BUFFALO (-2.5) at LAS VEGAS (Over/Under 49.5)
The Josh Allen hype train continues to build up a head of steam – and it seems unlikely to stop anytime soon. The Bills rallied after giving up a 28-3 lead last week, snatching a victory from the jaws of defeat. Allen is a confounding player to evaluate at times, but he has taken a step forward in many areas of his game and figures to give opposing defenses plenty to worry about. Defensively, the Bills will have to contend with a strong Raiders rushing attack and the power of Josh Jacobs. No small task.
The Raiders predictably fell short against the smothering defensive effort from New England last week, but they hung in for a while. Expect the offense to get back on track against the Bills, while the defense continues to find its feet. This could be one of the sneaky high-scoring affairs of the week, so the 49.5 total looks, if anything, a little bit low. Take the over and the Raiders to bounce back.
Pick: Las Vegas
NEW ENGLAND at KANSAS CITY (-7) (Over/Under 53.5)
The Patriots appear to be firing on all cylinders and winning in their own way, which is exactly what Bill Belichick loves. The last meeting of these teams saw the Chiefs pull out a road victory, but they have had some classic tussles over the past couple of years. Cam Newton will be asked to run the football to test a Chiefs defense that was vulnerable against interior rushes in Baltimore. Expect the Patriots to play this conservatively and try to control the clock.
The Chiefs showed the world on Monday night what a formidable team they will be this season and that, if there was any lingering doubt, there would be no resting on laurels after the Super Bowl victory. They stood up to the challenge of Lamar Jackson with confidence, so Newton should be manageable. Patrick Mahomes II is making short work of defenses, combining all his nous and skill to great effect. It is hard to look past the Chiefs, but the Patriots defense has the manpower to keep it close.
Pick: New England
(Sunday Night) PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO (-6) (Over/Under 43)
The Eagles’ tie against the Bengals – the second in the last four meetings between the teams – was a fitting reflection of how Philadelphia’s season has gone thus far. At 0-2-1, however, they still find themselves well within reach of the playoffs due to the lackluster NFC East. Carson Wentz has done his best to drag this offense to consistency, but to no avail, with Wentz shouldering some of the blame as well. A visit to San Francisco, even a banged-up 49ers team, is not what Doug Pederson would have wanted this week.
The 49ers and the mastery of Kyle Shanahan have navigated this period very well, with Nick Mullens playing an efficient game to get the expected win over the Giants. Jimmy Garoppolo could return this week, but who the quarterback is may does not make a difference. The 49ers are a well-oiled machine and should be able to make short work of an Eagles team in disarray.
Pick: San Francisco
(Monday Night) ATLANTA at GREEN BAY (-7) (Over/Under 57.5)
The Falcons let another massive lead slip last Sunday, with Dan Quinn visibly irate after the game. How much longer Quinn has as head coach is anyone’s guess, but the signs are not promising. Matt Ryan has kept up his end of the bargain for the most part, but the defense has been utterly incapable of closing out games. Facing an in-form Aaron Rodgers will be their toughest test yet.
With eight days to prepare, the Packers should be able to take care of business and send the Falcons to 0-4. The interesting numbers here are the -7 spread and a total of 57.5. Of the two, the under 57.5 appeals most, with the Packers defense good enough to limit the Falcons in comeback mode. It is hard to envisage anything except a Packers victory.
Pick: Green Bay
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
A solid start to the season took an unusual turn last week as the 0-2 teams and underdogs fought back with a vengeance. It is time for a return to form in Week 4, however. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 DALLAS (-5.5) vs. CLEVELAND
- 2 GREEN BAY (-7) vs. ATLANTA
- 3 SAN FRANCISCO (-6) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- 4 LAS VEGAS (+2.5) vs. BUFFALO
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 4 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM ATS WEST COAST DOUBLE (2.61-1 ODDS)
- LAS VEGAS (+2.5)
- SAN FRANCISCO (-6)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.42-1 ODDS):
- DALLAS (-5.5)
- GREEN BAY (-7)
- 2-TEAM UNDER DOUBLE (2.5-1 ODDS):
- ATLANTA/GREEN BAY – UNDER 57.5
- NY GIANTS/LA RAMS – UNDER 48.5
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 3-TEAM MONEY LINE (2.88-1 ODDS)
- DALLAS - FOR THE WIN
- GREEN BAY – FOR THE WIN
- HOUSTON – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Dallas, Green Bay, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Houston
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 7-8-1
- SEASON OVERALL: 27-20-1 (57.2%)
- BEST BETS: 7-4-1, last week 1-2-1 (62.5%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 10-5-1, last week 2-2-1 (65.6%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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