Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
With two weeks of action behind us, we have a bit more perspective to contextualize teams’ performances. More exposures lead to more insights, which lead to more efficient lines from Vegas. It has been a hot start personally, going 20-12 overall and 6-2 with the best bets, but it will be tough to maintain that consistency. The best advice is sometimes to simply not wager on a particular game or lean more towards the total. Week 3 is another tantalizing slate, so let us begin.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday Night) MIAMI at JACKSONVILLE (-3) (Over/Under 45)
Brian Flores faces an uphill battle to avoid a dreadful 0-3 start when his feisty but unspectacular Dolphins team gets a front seat for the Minshew Show in primetime. While the Bills and Patriots, Miami’s conquerors over the first two weeks, are good opponents, there are exploitable areas for even an upstart team like Jacksonville to target. All is not lost for the Dolphins, especially after a loss to Buffalo that will give them plenty of encouragement; Ryan Fitzpatrick sharpened up, Mike Gesicki looked every bit the big target he was drafted to be and the running back by committee approach wasn’t a disaster. Defensively, however, there are major issues that will be difficult to resolve over four days of preparation.
The tipped pass interception that sunk the Jaguars on Sunday was just one of those plays, a bounce of a ball that could easily have gone the other way, culminating in a heroic Gardner Minshew touchdown pass to win it. Keep in mind the Jags were 11-point underdogs in Tennessee, a line that is even more absurd in retrospect. There is a real spirit to Doug Marrone’s men, a group that will not go down without a fight. Rookie runner James Robinson continues to show well, while the pocket presence and creativity of Minshew is quite something to behold. Like their opponent this week, their defense is not at the races. The total, therefore, looks a little on the low side for a game that could be back and forth. The three-point line basically tells us Vegas thinks these teams are dead even on a neutral field. A tricky one to call, but the home team usually has an edge on a short week.
Pick: Jacksonville
HOUSTON at PITTSBURGH (-4.5) (Over/Under 45)
Bill O’Brien’s Texans team is 17-21-1 (44.7%) against the spread as the road underdog since he took over in 2014. In those games, they have lost by an average of 6.7 points. After a murderer’s row of AFC powerhouses Kansas City and Baltimore to start their season, Houston must march next into Heinz Field to play another AFC contender. The results have been mixed from the first two exposures to Deshaun Watson sans DeAndre Hopkins, but there is a lack of chemistry and consistency in the offense, with Watson having to do too much. Credit must go to the Texans defense after it successfully stifled Lamar Jackson at times last week. A similarly aggressive game plan will be needed in Week 3.
The Steelers will present a completely different challenge to that of Baltimore. It appears Ben Roethlisberger is getting his sea legs under him after a long layoff, with his coterie of young wideouts creating after-catch bonanza plays. The two-headed rushing attack is functioning well behind a solid offensive line, while the defense continues to, as a pundit said this week, ‘play like it’s the 80s all over again’. This could be a brutal outing for the Texans, with the -4.5 perhaps a little on the low side. With Pittsburgh such a public team, expect money to come in on the home team as the tide turns against Houston, wave by wave.
Pick: Pittsburgh
CINCINNATI at PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
Joe Burrow will thankfully have had a 10-day break to ice his throwing arm after a marathon passing session in his last game. With two games in the books, it is clear the Bengals will continue to let Burrow work his magic, learning from mistakes along the way, dinking and dunking when needed to protect him and the offensive line. The Eagles defense should not be a scary proposition for Zac Taylor’s offense, a unit that has shown plenty of moxie and execution thus far, even in an 0-2 start. Defensively, the Bengals have plenty to shore up, in what is becoming a recurring theme as we analyze the matchups this week.
In an 0-2 hole, the Eagles look to be adrift and lacking a drive in their play. It is difficult to pinpoint just one problem, so Doug Pederson and his coaching staff have their work cut out this week. The opponent is forgiving, but the same could be said for the Washington Football Team in Week 1 – and the Eagles managed to let that one slip away. On Pederson’s watch, the Eagles have gone just 11-16 against the spread after a loss, for a dismal 40.7% cover rate. The -6.5 feels a little rich; take the points and the hope that Burrow can make short work of a defense that has shown little.
Pick: Cincinnati
SAN FRANCISCO (-4) at NY GIANTS (Over/Under 41.5)
With so much uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position, this is a difficult game to handicap, much less to map out a game script for. The season-ending injury to Nick Bosa is a hammer blow to a team that had designs on a Super Bowl repeat. Quite simply, the 49ers have been decimated. With Raheem Mostert and perhaps even Jimmy Garoppolo likely to be a game-time decision according to our Jene Bramel, the Giants defensive coaches might be licking their lips at the prospects. That Vegas still makes last year’s Super Bowl loser a four-point road favorite – despite all the injury woes – is a damning indictment of the home team, however.
The Giants, of course, have had to contend with their own high-profile injury, with Saquon Barkley out for the season. It is a loss that will put more on the shoulders of young Daniel Jones, with Jason Garrett likely to reimagine certain aspects of the offense to suit a Barkley-less unit. There is little to be optimistic about with Big Blue these days, as they conspire to lose time after time. Being the more desperate team, at 0-2, this is certainly a feasible spot for a bounce back, but this one is best avoided until there is more clarity on the 49ers’ quarterback situation.
Pick: San Francisco
LAS VEGAS at NEW ENGLAND (-6) (Over/Under 46.5)
Jon Gruden’s Raiders kicked off life in their new home (The Death Star, Roomba are among the names that have been thrown around) with a comeback victory over the fancied Saints, a stirring achievement that could embolden this young team. The short week, combined with having to prepare for a rejuvenated New England, is a tough draw, a factor in the six-point handicap. Derek Carr’s hyper-efficiency on third down on Monday night – and his growing connection with Darren Waller – could keep Las Vegas in this game until the end. Bill Belichick will likely choose to take away Josh Jacobs and Waller, forcing Carr to go elsewhere.
As for the Patriots, there is every reason to believe they can reach the playoffs again this year despite pundits’ proclamations in the preseason. Taking the Seahawks all the way down to the wire in their house (albeit with no fans), with Cam Newton throwing darts and looking every bit the pre-injury player the football world knew and loved, was a big statement. Defensively, there may be less talent, but the man at the controls is more than capable of getting the best out of them. Advantage, Patriots.
Pick: New England
TENNESSEE (-1.5) at MINNESOTA (Over/Under 45.5)
The casual efficiency of Ryan Tannehill since he took over as the Titans starting signal-caller has been quite something to behold. A ho-hum 18 for 24, four-touchdown performance against the Jaguars last week was not met with any fanfare; it was expected. This is how the conversation has been flipped on its head in Tennessee: Tannehill is as legitimate and sturdy a starter as there is. It is worth noting that this comes without second-year phenom A.J. Brown, who looks likely to miss this week as well. With the Vikings struggling mightily to do, well, anything right now, expect Derrick Henry to see a heavy workload, while the defense feasts on Kirk Cousins.
The Vikings’ backs are firmly against the wall at 0-2, with the trapdoor inches away – and with it the end of their playoff hopes. The convincing nature of their two defeats has been highly disheartening, with Cousins being put into negative game scripts, a position that he and his coaching staff would prefer to avoid. This will be a tough game for Tennessee – if Minnesota can show up and provide a massive effort. That said, it is difficult to predict a Vikings fight back, so the safe side here is the Titans. The under also has some appeal, as this could be a run-heavy affair if both teams can stick to their script.
Pick: Tennessee
WASHINGTON at CLEVELAND (-7) (Over/Under 44.5)
For the second week in a row, the Browns find themselves in the unfamiliar position of being comfortable home favorites according to the Vegas line. They failed to cover the -6 last week against a feisty Bengals outfit. The question is this: are the Washington Football Team a point worse than Cincinnati? To put it mildly, this line is a little baffling and appears to put too much faith in Cleveland despite a putrid defensive performance. Baker Mayfield certainly rebounded nicely, and the ground game is formidable, but the defense is a sieve.
One that, perhaps, even Dwayne Haskins can take advantage of. Ron Rivera’s team was swatted aside like a fly in Arizona, but even then, managed to rally at the end. There will be not a Kyler Murray-like threat to game plan for this week, something the defensive coaches are undoubtedly delighted about. Mayfield has some bad habits that the Washington defensive line could exploit if the game script remains on track. This is a game the visitors should be able to keep within reach on the scoreboard.
Pick: Washington
LA RAMS at BUFFALO (-3) (Over/Under 46.5)
Under Sean McVay, the Rams are 17-9 (65.4%) against the spread as the road team, with an average margin of victory of 8.2 points. While not exactly celebrated as road warriors on a regular basis, it will make some think twice when wagering on this contest. In some ways, the Rams’ 2-0 start can be dismissed as simply getting the job done against two NFC East teams. On the other hand, the wins came against the two best teams in the division. The offense is clicking well, with Jared Goff benefitting from a healthy offensive line. Expect plenty of the usual McVay pre-snap bells and whistles to keep Buffalo’s excellent front off-balance.
The key battle, however, is Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense against the Rams defense. It starts with blocking Aaron Donald, as any game plan must when facing Los Angeles. Allen produced one of his finest displays as a pro last week, showing good chemistry with his receivers and looking comfortable. There are still some moments of utter madness for the Bills quarterback, something the Rams will have to take advantage of. These are two likely playoff teams, making the three-point line fair, but Los Angeles is good enough to keep it tight – and perhaps win it at the death.
Pick: Los Angeles
CHICAGO at ATLANTA (-3) (Over/Under 47)
The Falcons have been involved in games averaging 71 points per game over the first two weeks, in large part due to their propensity to both score – and surrender a bucketload of points. Matt Ryan and company must be furious after the onside kick debacle of last week, dropping them to 0-2. If Dan Quinn can even coach the defense up to respectability, this could be a formidable team. As it stands, that improvement seems farfetched. The fact that the Falcons are only getting the basic three-point edge customary for home teams against the Bears is a sign of Vegas’ trepidation.
Matt Nagy’s Bears have somehow squeaked out a 2-0 start, with many pundits already expecting a wobble soon. Averaging 22 points per game offensively and giving up 18 points per game, this is a run-of-the-mill roster that will probably finish the year at around 8-8 or so. Mitchell Trubisky has made a few short strides in the right direction, and this match-up is certainly enticing, but will he able to take advantage? Will Nagy put the game in his hands? It seems doubtful. This is an excellent rebound spot for the home team.
Pick: Atlanta
CAROLINA at LA CHARGERS (-7) (Over/Under 44)
The engine of the Carolina offense Christian McCaffrey will miss four to six weeks with a high ankle sprain, instantly capping the potential of the offense. More will be put on the shoulders of Teddy Bridgewater, who has been serviceable in his first two starts as he has formed a good connection with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. The low total in this game reflects Vegas’ belief that the offense will struggle to move the ball against a high-quality Chargers defense. This looks like a tall task for Matt Rhule – and an 0-3 start.
The Chargers took their divisional rivals Kansas City to the wire last week and really could have won the game had Anthony Lynn been more aggressive on fourth down. The surprise start for Justin Herbert turned into a blessing in disguise, with the rookie – apart from a boneheaded interception – showing excellent command and looking every bit the player the Chargers envisaged. The seven-point line may be a little generous to the McCaffrey-less Panthers; Los Angeles all the way.
Pick: Los Angeles
NY JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) (Over/Under 44)
The Jets look every bit the team that people will try to bet against this season, such is the poor quality of their roster and the seeming hopelessness that engulfs them every week. Sam Darnold is doing the best he can considering the lackluster receiving corps at his disposal, not to mention the offensive line that is being forced to pass protect far too often. Could this be an early shot across the bough for Adam Gase’s job security if he cannot summon up a game effort for his team? With the tough Indianapolis defense to contend with, the Jets would need their best performance to stay within touching distance.
The Colts got back to 1-1 last week with an efficient if unspectacular home victory over the hapless Vikings. Now, they are asked to do the same – a professional job against a talent-deficient Jets team. The 9.5-point spread is tempting, but the Jets are 3-6 against the spread as the away team under Gase and there is no reason to believe that their fortunes are changing. Expect Jonathan Taylor to have to work hard for yards against a stout Jets run defense, but ultimately to break loose as the Colts build momentum.
Pick: Indianapolis
DALLAS at SEATTLE (-4.5) (Over/Under 55.5)
Oh, those pesky Cowboys. They refused to go away last week – to their credit, it must be said – and pulled off one of the truly memorable comeback victories. Considering how easily New England’s limited offense moved the ball on Seattle, the Cowboys coaching staff must be licking their lips at the possibilities. The major limiting factor will, of course, be an ailing offensive line, forcing Dak Prescott to get the ball out quicker. Vegas has a whopper total of 55.5 for this contest, however, an indication of their belief in both quarterbacks to get into a groove.
Perhaps no passer is more in a groove right now than Russell Wilson, who tossed five touchdowns against the Patriots secondary and has a 9:1 touchdown to interception ratio through two games. Some have even placed the Seahawks quarterback firmly in the MVP race. The Seattle defense had a bend but don’t break quality to them last week, so Dallas should be able to move the ball. It may come down to who possesses the ball last. Despite the injuries on the offensive line, the 4.5-point line is too tempting to pass up in a toss-up contest.
Pick: Dallas
TAMPA BAY (-6) at DENVER (Over/Under 43.5)
With a shoulder injury putting Drew Lock out of the picture, it will be Jeff Driskel taking snaps from center, leading an offense that will be without star wideout Courtland Sutton, who was placed on injured reserve. Things look gloomy for the Broncos, but their defense remains a strong unit and could give Tom Brady some problems. With Tampa’s run defense shutting down opponents through two weeks, much will be asked of Driskel. Can the journeyman deliver?
The betting overlords seem to think not if the six-point line is anything to go by, meaning the Bucs would be nine-point favorites on a neutral field. There was still a bit of ring rust evident in the Tampa Bay performance of last week, with Brady failing to connect with Rob Gronkowski and some miscommunication with receivers. The under is a potentially good bet, with the Bucs sure to severely limit the young Broncos skill players. This may end up being an armchair ride for Brady and company.
Pick: Tampa Bay
DETROIT at ARIZONA (-6.5) (Over/Under 53)
It may be a bit premature to say Matt Patricia’s seat is hot, but is it warm? Absolutely. After an 0-2 start in divisional play, the Lions are staring up at their rivals and wondering where it all went wrong. A much-ballyhooed team entering the season, the bubble has burst and nothing but a victory here will do if they have any hope of salvaging things. Matthew Stafford should be able to find some weak spots against a decent Arizona defense, but defensively the Lions may be twisted and turned by the incomparable skills of Kyler Murray.
It is Murray’s wheels as a runner that have really set him apart over the first two games as the Cardinals have made a red-hot 2-0 start. The speedy quarterback already has three rushing touchdowns and presents an X-factor that defensive coordinators simply cannot handle. The connection with DeAndre Hopkins appears to be building, with the pace of play also posing a major problem for defenders. Vegas has made the Cardinals 6.5-point favorites, an endorsement of their trendy status as NFC West co-front runners and likely playoff contenders.
Pick: Arizona
(Sunday Night) GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) (Over/Under 51.5)
A fantastic pair of primetime games begins on Sunday night with the Packers, looking excellent thus far, facing the Saints, who are coming off a chastening defeat on Monday night in Las Vegas. This could be the final time Aaron Rodgers locks horns with Drew Brees, so this is one to savor. Rodgers’ top target Davante Adams could be a huge factor in this game – if he is healthy enough to play. The wideout is day-to-day with a hamstring strain, with our Jene Bramel suggesting it is more likely to be a seven to 10-day injury. Aaron Jones will not find the running room of last week against a formidable Saints front seven, putting Rodgers in the spotlight.
Brees seemed to fade as the game wore on last week, with the offense relying on a diet of short passes to keep things ticking over. The Packers defense has some interesting pieces capable of making things difficult, but this feels like a good bounce-back spot for the home team. Vegas has, as usual, given the Saints the extra half-point of deference, but in prior years that would have been a few more points. Will Brees be able to go throw for throw with Rodgers in a high-scoring game? Whatever happens, have your popcorn ready for a tie that could decide playoff seeding in the NFC.
Pick: Green Bay
(Monday Night) KANSAS CITY at BALTIMORE (-3) (Over/Under 52.5)
Game of the week. Maybe even the game of the season. The last meeting between these two AFC powerhouses produced a memorable and exciting finish. If we see the same on Monday night, all the better. Even though this clash comes at an early stage of the season, it could be the tiebreaker and the difference between being the number one seed and having to play on wildcard weekend. The Chiefs fought valiantly and relied on the leg of Harrison Butker to steal a victory against the Chargers. Patrick Mahomes II continues to make special plays and he has not been shy to take off and scamper for yards with his legs as well.
There are so many angles to come at this game, but the one that is of most intrigue is the Chiefs defense and how they choose to handle Lamar Jackson. The Ravens quarterback was hit and sacked a few times last week, and yet Baltimore still scored over 30 points. Stopping the Ravens may be one of the toughest defensive assignments in football. Expect a back and forth battle, with neither team running away with it. Sit back and enjoy, but if you must wager the slight edge goes to the Chiefs and the points.
Pick: Kansas City
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
After a 6-2 start to the Best Bets through two weeks, the hope is to continue the momentum. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 PITTSBURGH (-4.5) vs. HOUSTON
- 2 ATLANTA (-3) vs. CHICAGO
- 3 LA RAMS (+3) at BUFFALO
- 4 LA CHARGERS (-7) vs. CAROLINA
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 3 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM ATS LOS ANGELES SPECIAL DOUBLE (2.61-1 ODDS)
- LA CHARGERS (-7)
- LA RAMS (+3)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.42-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-4.5)
- ATLANTA (-3)
- 2-TEAM UNDER DOUBLE (2.5-1 ODDS):
- TAMPA BAY/DENVER – UNDER 43.5
- DETROIT/ARIZONA – UNDER 53
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM MONEY LINE (2.58-1 ODDS)
- ATLANTA - FOR THE WIN
- PITTSBURGH – FOR THE WIN
- LA CHARGERS – FOR THE WIN
- INDIANAPOLIS – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Pittsburgh, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Atlanta, New England
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 10-6
- SEASON OVERALL: 20-12 (62.5%)
- BEST BETS: 6-2, last week 2-2 (75%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 8-3, last week 3-2 (72.7%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
Follow @davlar87
