Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Week 2 can be notoriously tricky. A full week of action in the rearview, we tend to bias ourselves towards what we have just seen and forget all the prior analysis we have done on these teams. My advice would to be stick to your convictions and avoid any lines that appear too good to be true, one way or the other. There is a whole season ahead, so overreacting and blowing a large portion of your bankroll is not the right way to play it.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday Night) CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND (-6) (Over/Under 46)
The Browns will have to dust themselves down, shake themselves off and start all over again after a dismal opening to a season filled with hope. Cleveland’s new regime will take time to bed in properly, so losing to a team with arguably the most consistent roster from last year to this in Baltimore is far from a death knell for their young campaign. An 0-2 start, however, with two losses in the division, would certainly raise some eyebrows. Baker Mayfield’s bad habits surfaced again on Sunday, and perhaps the -6 is a little bit generous and says more about what Vegas thinks of Cincinnati than of what they think of Cleveland’s potential dominance in this clash.
The beginning of the Joe Burrow era was entertaining, if a little frantic, at times. The offense was bound to stumble, but the offensive line is already a significant concern and could force the No. 1 overall pick to shimmy, shake and bake to escape pressure and make plays. The Bengals had a feistiness to them, and it is well within the realm of possibilities that they could pull off an upset here. The total seems a tad too high, so the under is a solid play, but it is the +6 that appeals most. The Browns will not earn our trust until they show the market why they deserve it.
Pick: Cincinnati
JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE (-11) (Over/Under 43)
Gardner Minshew had just one incomplete pass in a highly efficient performance against the fancied Colts, leading his team to an upset victory. This week, the market is similarly low on the Jaguars’ prospects, giving them a generous 11-point head start against the spread. Though there are clear deficiencies on the Jacksonville roster, this appears to be a bullish team who will not simply roll over. I have said it before, and I will say it again: Minshew is too good to put them in the frame for the number one overall pick.
Stephen Gostkowski was mobbed by teammates after hitting the game-winning field goal on Monday night, but perhaps the affection was more out of relief than true appreciation. When the kicker is the story, often the other positive things you do as a team get glossed over. The Titans demonstrated how dominant their defense could be, even as the offense sputtered a bit. The total in this match-up feels fair, as Tennessee should be able to control it. In a battle for the top spot in the AFC South, take the points and watch Minshew work his magic.
Pick: Jacksonville
CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY (-8.5) (Over/Under 48.5)
The Panthers surrendered a 4.3 yards per carry average last week to a strong Raiders offensive front, with Matt Rhule admitting they ‘have to improve’ this facet of their game. The first-year head coach will benefit from his team getting into a groove as the weeks go by but expecting such a young defense to click is too much to ask. Thankfully, Carolina’s offense picked up the slack against Las Vegas. In Tampa, against a fearsome front seven that will dare the Panthers to establish the run, it may not be so straightforward. Teddy Bridgewater had 34 attempts last week; in scorching-hot Florida on Sunday, he may get up to 40 depending on game script.
All the signs point to a strong bounce-back performance from Tampa Bay, with Vegas making them 8.5-point favorites early in the week. That number could rise as the post-Week 1 analysis takes shape. While Tom Brady’s debut did not go as planned in the win column, he was facing one of the best front sevens in football; he will have no such problems to contend with against Carolina’s front. Expect Rob Gronkowski to make an appearance after a quiet start to his Bucs career.
Pick: Tampa Bay
DENVER at PITTSBURGH (-6.5) (Over/Under 43)
The line in this game stands at -6.5 in Pittsburgh’s favor, but do not be shocked if money comes pouring in on the home team in the coming days. If you watched even five minutes of their performance – especially defensively – on Monday night, you would know this is a team going places. The physicality was fierce on both sides of the ball, and they looked to be in midseason form – even if Ben Roethlisberger took a while to warm up.
Denver certainly has the horses (excuse the low-hanging fruit pun) to cause Pittsburgh some problems, though operating in multiple wide receiver sets and leaving Drew Lock out to dry could be a recipe for a swift defeat. The dreaded 0-2 hole awaits the Broncos if they cannot pull this out of the fire. Since 2015, Pittsburgh is 16-17 against the spread (48.5%) as a home favorite. Make that 17-17 after this week.
Pick: Pittsburgh
LA RAMS at PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) (Over/Under 48)
The Rams looked prepared and poised for the most part against a strongly fancied Dallas team on Sunday night. While Sean McVay’s team has some kinks to iron out, it is clear that the young coach has done some soul-searching and has catered the offense more to Jared Goff’s skill set, getting the ball out quicker and remaining as balanced as possible. We may look back in a few weeks on the win over Dallas as a crucial tiebreaker in the NFC playoff race as things get more competitive.
Philadelphia’s collapse against Washington will have been a shock to the system, especially after seeming so comfortable in the early stages. The offensive line was thoroughly outmatched against Washington’s front, and the Rams could take advantage of that weakness on Sunday as well. The early line has the Eagles as 3.5-point favorites, though one wonders if money could come pouring in on the Rams as pundits overreact to one week of action. The total seems high here, so an under bet looks like a decent chance at netting some winnings. Watch this line throughout the week; if it goes to Philadelphia -3 or -2.5, jump all over it. This is an excellent spot for the home team.
Pick: Philadelphia
SAN FRANCISCO (-7) at NY JETS (Over/Under 43.5)
Since 2017 when Kyle Shanahan took over as head coach, the 49ers are just 2-4 against the spread (ATS) as a road favorite, but that may change this week. You had to squint a bit to see the silver linings in the San Francisco showing last week; there were a lot more negatives than positives. The George Kittle injury bears watching as the week progresses, as the offense appears toothless without him. Jimmy Garoppolo does not quite have the trust with his other receivers to make the offense viable. Defensively, the 49ers will fancy feasting on a weak Jets offensive line.
And indeed, that defensive dominance could be the first step towards a victory and getting back to 1-1. The Jets offered up a semblance of a fight at times in Buffalo but ultimately played at their level, which is to say underwhelming and lacking a pizazz of any kind. Sam Darnold is stuck in a bad situation with Adam Gase, but before the light at the end of the tunnel, they must go through some more growing pains. Expect a game effort from Gang Green, but not nearly enough to trouble the Niners.
Pick: San Francisco
BUFFALO (-5.5) at MIAMI (Over/Under 41.5)
Let’s go, Buffalo – and perhaps take care of business a little bit more effectively next time against an inferior opponent. The low total here indicates that Vegas is anticipating a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair on what could be a hot afternoon. Josh Allen continues to be something of a magic 8-ball at quarterback, with each snap producing a different and sometimes baffling outcome. Defensively, Buffalo looked strong last week and should continue that in Miami.
But do the Dolphins have a little fight in them? Is this +5.5 perhaps the most tempting line of the season thus far? After all, it is a perfect situation for the Fitzmagic to come out and spray the ball around, taking advantage of an Allen turnover or two. Week 2 always produces an upset like this, and particularly in division games. The Dolphins went 4-4 as the home underdog last season, losing by an average of 14.1 points. Despite the loss to New England, it would be unwise to write them off. When these two wild gunslinging quarterbacks go head to head, take the older head and the points.
Pick: Miami
MINNESOTA at INDIANAPOLIS (-3) (Over/Under 48)
The late rally by the Vikings papered over the cracks of what was a dismal performance, fortunately for them not in front of a ravenous and likely furious home crowd. The Packers, frankly, obliterated their division rivals. Mike Zimmer’s team is 17-13 (56.7%) against the spread as a road underdog since he took over in 2014, for what it is worth. Defensively, this team is much better and should put up a better fight in Indianapolis, but Frank Reich’s team is not exactly the opponent Zimmer would want after starting 0-1.
Philip Rivers produced a fantastic display in his Colts debut, running the offense as if he had been at its helm for his whole career. Nyheim Hines was a particular focus of the veteran passer. The defense will be setting higher expectations as it beds into the new season. The three-point line feels fair, and this is probably best as a no-play on the line. The total of 48, however, appeals as an under bet, with both teams likely to drill defensive discipline this week.
Pick: Minnesota
DETROIT at GREEN BAY (-6) (Over/Under 47.5)
Oh, Detroit. You cannot help but feel sorry for the Lions and how they seem, heartbreakingly, to conspire to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. DeAndre Swift’s drop last Sunday was a killer blow and should have given the Lions a 1-0 start. Instead, they face into a significant hill to climb in Lambeau Field – and perhaps 0-2. Matthew Stafford should be able to find some exploitable areas in the Packers defense, so the total of 47.5 is fair in what could be a shootout.
Aaron Rodgers could turn this season into a one-man show if Week 1 is anything to go by. The fired-up Packers quarterback reminded the NFL world why he should not be written off so quickly after the selection of Jordan Love. The connection with Davante Adams looks to be firing on all cylinders, while the defense played some good football on Sunday as well. Six points is a little risky, but it is hard to ignore what the Packers did last week – and what they could continue to do as the season wears on.
Pick: Green Bay
ATLANTA at DALLAS (-5) (Over/Under 52.5)
All did not go smoothly for the Falcons on Sunday, with the secondary routinely picked on by a precision passing performance from Russell Wilson. Offensively, the debut of Todd Gurley was a positive, but the offensive line was creaky at times and gave Matt Ryan little chance. Week 2 represents another challenge for the Falcons in the form of a potential NFC power, Dallas. Teams will shore up their chemistry and improve communication in pass protection, but Ryan may be running for his life if Dallas’ defense – even without Leighton Vander Esch – can crank up the pressure.
And they may have ample opportunity to do just that if, as expected, Dallas can establish a lead behind the arm of Dak Prescott and the triple threat at wide receiver. We may look back at the Week 1 loss to the Rams as a bump in the road on an otherwise convincing season. Vegas has given the public darlings a pass, in any case, making the home team five-point favorites in Jerry World. The total is very appealing – particularly the over as Atlanta may have to come back. Mike McCarthy’s team are fancied to win convincingly.
Pick: Dallas
NY GIANTS at CHICAGO (-5.5) (Over/Under 43)
The gut-punch interception at the goal line on Monday night may haunt Daniel Jones this week. However, if reports are to be believed about his calm demeanor, he could quickly reset after a pretty game effort against a vicious Steelers defense. Jones’ offensive line gave him little to work with at times, with creative blitz packages causing chaos. Still, he kept firing and made some strides in front of a national audience. The defense will be eager to test Mitchell Trubisky early and often with similarly aggressive looks.
The Bears are riding high after their improbable victory in Detroit, though it would be unwise to take too much away from one game. After all, the first half was a disaster for Chicago, with pundits calling for Trubisky’s head. It was a classic game of two halves. Which Trubisky will show up this week is unclear, but the match-up isn’t too daunting. Expect Chicago to take a page out of Pittsburgh’s book defensively, showing one thing pre-snap before switching out at the last second. The Giants should be able to keep it close, however.
Pick: New York
WASHINGTON at ARIZONA (-6.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
Ron Rivera-coached teams should never be underestimated, ladies and gentlemen. Even as the Football Team found themselves in a hole early on, their defensive front picked them up and allowed them to complete an improbable turnaround. Dwayne Haskins did not produce a vintage display of passing but was not a liability either. It is the front four of Washington that will give any offensive line headaches, and perhaps Arizona could be the next victim.
The complicating factor here, of course, is the inimitable Kyler Murray, whose ability to scramble at pace is unlike any other quarterback. Murray flummoxed the 49ers time and time again in Week 1, but Rivera is well used to game planning for a mobile quarterback and has the defensive nous to at least make things difficult for the Cardinals passer. For Arizona, a 2-0 start will be expected – and the upcoming schedule looks friendly. If they want to be a playoff contender, this is the type of contest they need to win. See if you can grab the +7 on Washington, though, who should be able to stay in touch.
Pick: Washington
KANSAS CITY (-8.5) at LA CHARGERS (Over/Under 47.5)
Vegas continues to set high lines for the Chiefs, knowing full well that they cannot set them high enough with the explosive potential of this offense. Andy Reid’s team with Patrick Mahomes II is 6-4 ATS as a road favorite, with an average margin of victory of 10 points in those contests. It is hard to disagree with the consensus that this team is poised to make another Super Bowl run. The Chargers rarely pose any problems for them; with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, the task is arguably an easier one.
Anthony Lynn would prefer to play this game close to the vest, but that strategy is a losing one against the Chiefs (as many teams have found out the hard way). The backfield tandem of Joshua Kelley and Austin Ekeler could chew up clock and keep this one tight for a while, but you cannot keep the Chiefs offense under wraps all game long. The 8.5-point spread is a major turn-off here, so the advice is no play. The total is appealing on the under, as the Chargers are unlikely to match the Chiefs’ offensive output.
Pick: Kansas City
BALTIMORE (-6.5) at HOUSTON (Over/Under 53)
John Harbaugh’s team was out to prove a point in the opening stanza of the season, making short work of Cleveland and announcing to the league: 14-2 was no fluke, and we are going nowhere. The Ravens’ versatile rushing attack is difficult to prepare for at the best of times; Houston may struggle, even with 10 days' time to game plan. Kansas City’s rushing attack exposed the soft underbelly of the Texans on opening night. Nothing should stop Baltimore from controlling this game.
The 6.5-point line, therefore, appears to be the right number from the Vegas sharps. The total of 53 is more enticing here than the spread, with a game script likely to favor a heavy dose of the run and Houston in comeback mode. Deshaun Watson looked flustered against Kansas City as his receivers struggled to free themselves. Against a Ravens secondary featuring a solid pair of cornerbacks in Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, it could be another long afternoon for Bill O’Brien’s offense.
Pick: Baltimore
(Sunday Night) NEW ENGLAND at SEATTLE (-4) (Over/Under 44.5)
There was a different type of swagger to the Patriots offense last week: A Cam Newton-sized one. It is clear offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels plans to let Cam be Cam, which is to say a healthy serving of power runs, option plays, and everything required to get their new quarterback comfortable. In this Super Bowl rematch, Bill Belichick will likely play things close to the vest, relying on a ball-control approach to limit Seattle’s opportunities.
The Seahawks were able to make short work of the Falcons, but New England’s defense will pose a stiffer test. How D.J. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett fare against a lockdown secondary could be a deciding factor in this clash. It is hard to look past Russell Wilson, however, who produced a business-as-usual four-touchdown outing last week. He appears to be ready to embark on a special season, especially if he is handed the reins offensively, as many believe he should be. A lean toward the home team.
Pick: Seattle
(Monday Night) NEW ORLEANS (-6) at LAS VEGAS (Over/Under 51.5)
The bombshell news that Saints superstar wideout Michael Thomas is due to miss several weeks with a high ankle sprain will force Sean Payton into a radical rethink of his offense. While Drew Brees conducts the orchestra in New Orleans, Thomas’ precision route-running and toughness keep it all in tune. Emmanuel Sanders will be called upon to step up, with Alvin Kamara assuming a larger role in the passing attack. The line for this match-up still stands at -6 in the road team’s favor, though the task for the Raiders and their defensive coordinator Paul Guenther is less daunting.
Las Vegas will open their new stadium with a sense of optimism after last week’s victory in Carolina. Josh Jacobs looked every bit the player the Raiders expected him to be when they drafted him, with the offensive line routinely pancaking defenders. New Orleans’ front seven will pose a greater challenge, however, placing more of the burden on Derek Carr’s shoulders. The Saints are the better team and should squeak out a road victory, but taking the points is the right call with a line that big.
Pick: Las Vegas
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
After a perfect 4-0 start to the Best Bets in Week 1, the hope is to continue the momentum. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 BALTIMORE (-6.5) at HOUSTON
- 2 DALLAS (-5) vs. ATLANTA
- 3 NEW YORK GIANTS (+5.5) at CHICAGO
- 4 PITTSBURGH (-6.5) vs. DENVER
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 2 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.61-1 ODDS)
- BALTIMORE (-6.5)
- DALLAS (-5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.42-1 ODDS):
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+5.5)
- PITTSBURGH (-6.5)
- 2-TEAM OVER/UNDER DOUBLE (2.5-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY/LOS ANGELES – UNDER 47.5
- ATLANTA/DALLAS – OVER 52.5
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM MONEY LINE (1.79-1 ODDS)
- BALTIMORE - FOR THE WIN
- PITTSBURGH – FOR THE WIN
- KANSAS CITY – FOR THE WIN
- GREEN BAY – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Dallas, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, NY Giants, Miami
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 10-6
- SEASON OVERALL: 10-6 (62.5%)
- BEST BETS: 4-0 (100%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 5-1 (83.3%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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