Photo: Imagn Images
The 2021 NFL free-agent class is loaded with big names at the skill positions. Those were covered in Part 1 of this series. Now, Part 2 covers the best of the rest with dynasty implications in the offseason and beyond:
Quarterbacks
- Jameis Winston
- Philip Rivers
- Cam Newton
- Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Jimmy Garoppolo (Cut Candidate)
- Alex Smith (Cut Candidate)
This collection is a hodge-podge of ambiguous Where are they now? profiles of previous producers. Newton has been rushing-or-bust this season, even more than earlier in his career. Winston, a fellow top NFL Draft pick, is under a similar low-budget contract to reclaim his career in 2020. Taysom Hill got the nod as the starter with Drew Brees out, which could be a telling sign in and of itself for Winston's future Week 1 starting opportunities in 2021 and beyond. Rivers was the classic win-now stopgap option last offseason and the Colts are benefitting most of the way through the season. Rivers would play the same role next offseason with his contract expiring with Indianapolis. Fitzpatrick has emerged with starting opportunities around the NFL over the years despite being viewed more as a backup from the dynasty lens. He is poised to be the best bang for the buck quarterback-premium dynasty trade acquisition from this list for the cost of a late rookie pick or trade throw-in, yet again in the coming months. Garoppolo and Smith are interesting cut candidates to monitor. Garoppolo has largely been adequate-at-best within the smooth Kyle Shanahan system, but his bulging contract has very little dead money remaining if the 49ers move on this offseason. Smith was an overt cut earlier in the season but his return to play - and performing solidly - changes the dialogue around Washington as Smith could be a 2021 veteran stopgap to a yet-to-be-drafted rookie in the offseason. Smith would have a moderate amount of dead cap associated with his release, but is a restructure or a roll with him for one more season candidate next year.
Running Backs
- Todd Gurley
- Jamaal Williams
- Kenyan Drake
- Marlon Mack
- James White
- Mike Davis
- Devontae Booker
- Mark Ingram (Cut Candidate)
- Duke Johnson Jr (Cut Candidate)
This group contains some 1A possibilities for 2021 depth chart stature, but many will be in committees or injury-away status. Gurley has eroded over the past two seasons, but still has 1A potential for another season or two as a best case. The biggest question mark with the entire running back free-agent class, including some in Tier 1 covered in the last installment, is the lack of overt depth chart starting job openings. The Jets, Dolphins, Seahawks, Texans?, and Falcons stand out, but there is too much talent (or toothpaste) for the situational tube to not overflow with capable talent. In dynasty, this is a glory era for running backs with strong profiles combined with age dynamics. Marlon Mack is coming off an Achilles injury which derailed his 2020 season and clouds his 2021 opportunity and potential contract beyond a prove-it construction. Mike Davis and Devontae Booker have emerged from reclamation project status to back on the radar for a committee role or injury-away status next season. Houston is in a poor cap situation, making Duke Johnson Jr (and David Johnson) both cut candidates with minimal, or no, dead cap penalty in the offseason. Mark Ingram is another cut candidate as he has withered from the 1A role into a bit part of the Baltimore run game rotation. Outside of a strong contract restructure, Ingram is unlikely to return in 2021.
Wide Receivers
- Sammy Watkins
- A.J. Green
- Antonio Brown
- Breshad Perriman
- Curtis Samuel
- Marvin Jones
- John Brown (Cut Candidate)
While there is the upside of someone from this subset snagging a WR1 depth chart spot in 2021, an ancillary role is far more likely. Watkins has been in upside limbo for years now, but he is still young enough to envision the possibilities of the perfect storm. A.J. Green has been a complete dynasty flame-out in 2020 with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd rendering Green irrelevant for weekly lineups. At Green's age, there is minimal production wiggle room without a substantial market value decline. With the offseason official dynasty pretty roster season, look for Green to struggle to return even a Round 3 rookie pick in the coming months. Samuel is the most intriguing dynasty profile as an ancillary aspect in Carolina, dual-threat ability, and on the younger side of NFL free agents in addition to his Round 2 pedigree. While his outlook is higher than it was last offseason in my dynasty valuation model, I still have Samuel in the later Round 2 rookie pick range for a point of comparison. John Brown has been a notable faller in the same valuation model where the outlook is a stunted probability of any reasonable fantasy starter ceiling in a future season. I would rather roster most of the names on this list compared to Brown entering the offseason.
Tight Ends
- Gerald Everett
- Trey Burton
- Jordan Reed
- Jimmy Graham (Cut Candidate)
Burton and Reed could even be considering reaches to include as best-of-the-rest for this upcoming class of free agents. Everett also is a possible Tier 1 outcome as a Round 2 pick who has flashed with the Rams as the classic move tight end. Graham has been an all-time player through the prism of the last 25 years of tight end play with seven seasons as a TE1. However, the beginning of the end was already in motion with a pedestrian 2018-2019 stretch and now a continuation of streamer-at-best play. It is tough to validate Chicago holding Graham's cut-worthy salary in the offseason with Round 2 Cole Kmet entering his second season. Jordan Reed was a relative surprise to resurface this season and provide some pop moments with George Kittle out. However, Reed is a tough bet for 2021 impact or much of a contract outside of a spot-stint opportunity like in 2020. Trey Burton was a bust with his free-agent contract to Chicago previously and found a committee role with the Colts. However, Burton has been more of the overachiever-with-sparse-expectations type instead of a predictable producer when the opportunity appears glaring. Burton is likely to provide more NFL value than fantasy value in 2021 and beyond.
Potential Incumbent Benefactors
- A.J. Dillon - Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are both free agents
- Chase Edmonds, Eno Benjamin - Kenyan Drake is a free agent, unlikely Arizona rolls with only Edmonds-Benjamin combo, but there is a chance for an offseason rise in dynasty value
- Damien Harris - James White and Rex Burkhead free agents, could there be target upside for Harris?
- Mecole Hardman - Middling results for two years, but speed and Day 2 pedigree
- Tyler Johnson, Scott Miller - Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown both free agents
- Denzel Mims - Outside of splash free-agent addition in offseason, Mims projecting as WR1 in 2021
- Gabriel Davis - John Brown a cut candidate, Davis has looked good as a quality Day 3 profile
- Brycen Hopkins - Strong metric profile, Day 3, Gerald Everett should be gone, and Hopkins could be TE2 with Tyler Higbee
- Cole Kmet - Starting to flash later in rookie season, should be Week 1 starter next season
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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Dynasty
Eno Benjamin
Devontae Booker
Tyler Boyd
Antonio Brown
John Brown
Rex Burkhead
Gabe Davis
Mike Davis
AJ Dillon
Kenyan Drake
Chase Edmonds
Gerald Everett
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jimmy Garoppolo
Chris Godwin
Jimmy Graham
A.J. Green
Mecole Hardman Jr.
Damien Harris
Tyler Higbee
Tee Higgins
Taysom Hill
Brycen Hopkins
Mark Ingram II
David Johnson
Duke Johnson Jr
Tyler Johnson
Aaron Jones
Marvin Jones Jr
George Kittle
Cole Kmet
Marlon Mack
Scotty Miller
Denzel Mims
Cam Newton
Breshad Perriman
Curtis Samuel
Sammy Watkins
James White
Jamaal Williams
Jameis Winston
