With five weeks complete for dynasty teams, the sample size is growing enough to establish strength of schedule trends to improve the dynasty trade market timing, and lineup usage, for optimal value. Here is a look at the most glaring schedule splits:
Passing Games
Moving Up
Chargers
The Chargers have been one of the most pressured passing games in the NFL thus far in 2020. The schedule softens considerably for rookie Justin Herbert, who is near the top of the league in touchdown rate, yards-per-attempt, and despite the pressure rate sports only a modest sack rate. Mike Williams back (and healthy) would be a shot in the arm impact for their vertical passing game, which has already seen contribution from Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson in spots. The passing schedule turns rosy over the next month with three choice matchups and the biggest strength of schedule upgrade, and not particularly close, in the NFL.
Williams is the most interesting dynasty trade asset to explore from either side. The pro argument is a former top-10 pick with a boost in quarterback play of late and coming off a strong game in Week 5. The con side is Williams is essentially on the Davante Parker or bust track as he has been outside the top-40 every season to-date and has just three games finishing the top-20 of the position dating back to the start of 2018. The prudent play is to at least explore the sell market on Williams in the coming weeks and specifically this week. The competition for targets is high with Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry and (later this season) Austin Ekeler returning. Going 2nd to 1st in rookie picks by using Williams is possible this week, or adding a flip player to Williams to get a 1st outright. An earlier 2nd and one of the better injury-away running backs is another option.
Also worth mentioning is Justin Herbert, who is off to a strong start. This is less timely than Williams in exploring the market, but know initial spikes in dynasty quarterback value can often be followed by sophomore slumps or regression. It is tough sledding to approach the top of the quarterback board for long and shifting to a more durable profile in the macro is a prudent pivot. Getting a 1st in return for Herbert in a 1QB format is possible. For superflex, Herbert is the perfect pivot to said stable profiles. Adding a 2nd to Herbert as an initial offer for Dak Prescott is in play. Shifting to Deshaun Watson straight up is within reach or adding a secondary piece. Both have sustained track records to eliminate the false positive risk of Herbert.
Texans
Houston's average-level passing game slate to-date turns into the easiest in the NFL over the next month. With a coaching change already in effect, Deshaun Watson enjoyed a get-well game from Brandin Cooks last week, and (healthy) Will Fuller has been a stable performer this season. The market is surely different for Cooks this week as opposed to the 'is he done?' mentality last week after a string of lackluster games and a goose egg in Week 4. Cooks is still accessible for a Round 2 valuation, however, and Will Fuller is largely valued in the early-2nd zone of pick cost. Both are quality targets in the market considering the passing game works through them (each with 30+ targets on the season) and an attachment to a strong quarterback.
Browns
Cleveland's passing schedule turns from the second-most difficult earlier this season to now an average difficulty over the next month. Both Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are strong historical profiles in their mid-career, but largely unappreciated for their track records. Beckham has the third-most WR1 seasons of active wide receivers (Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald) and had five straight top-10 PPG seasons through 2018. Entering 2020, Landry had five straight seasons in the top-30, three of which were top-18 finishes. Beckham is inside the top-20 for the season and Landry is coming off his two best games of the season. Recent trades for Beckham include for Antonio Gibson straight up and alongside Marquise Brown for Diontae Johnson and Cooper Kupp. Landry is a Round 2 equivalent market player. Like Brandin Cooks above, Landry is a solid buy recommendation, both for his profile and upcoming schedule improvement. Courtland Sutton returned Landry and Jamison Crowder for example in a recent dynasty trade.
Moving Down
Saints
The Saints are by far the biggest downturn over the next month in pass efficiency schedule. They have the toughest upcoming schedule overall and this after being in the top-half of easier schedules through the air to-date. Michael Thomas should be returning to help, but this offense has noticeable concerns from Drew Brees. The Saints are dead last in the NFL in intended air yards per attempt and in the top-10 of Drop Rate as a team. Jared Cook and TreQuan Smith have been disappointing overall this season and have averaged just 3.6 and 4.3 targets per game respectively. Ideally, Emmanuel Sanders continues his recent spike in impact (23 targets the past two games, 18-215-0 stat line) to pair with Thomas as a 1-2 punch. Jared Cook is the most action-oriented dynasty asset here, still with some name cache and possible trade value. Cook is an add-on to other deals, most likely, or seeking an earlier Round 3 pick (or upgrading from Round 3 to Round 2) are recommended exit avenues.
Dolphins
Miami has enjoyed the easiest pass defense efficiency road to-date this season. We have also seen relatively good play from the streaky Ryan Fitzpatrick over the stretch. Fitzpatrick has the highest completion rate of his career in relation to the league and three games with multiple touchdowns and no interceptions. The schedule is stiffening, however, with stingy matchups against the Chargers and Rams within the next three games. Also, any misstep for now and Tua Tagavailoa is waiting in the wings for his imminent debut as the future of the position for Miami. Fitzpatrick could last the rest of the season, but a stinker performance and a clunky half the following week could be the end of Fitzpatrick's reign as a starter this season. If needing Fitzpatrick as a streamer for now, hold in 1QB formats, but if 1-2 other stronger options are on your roster, Fitzpatrick is a worthy pivot to some of the new(er) injury-away running backs who provide more chances to gain weekly starters or liquid flip options.
DeVante Parker is off to a sluggish start overall. There is a strong split of targets with Preston Williams, Isaiah Ford, and Mike Gesicki all within 10 targets on the season of Parker. Compare that to last season where Parker nearly doubled any other receiver for Miami and had a big edge over Mike Gesicki. Parker was a late breakout for a receiver, especially a Round 1 prospect, last season after largely being given up upon by the dynasty community. A 2021 1st, or equivalent, is still possible from recently executed trades of Parker, or using as a centerpiece to acquire slower-starting rookies like Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, or D'Andre Swift. Brandon Aiyuk straight up is another idea for Parker as well as close to straight up, or adding a smaller piece, for Jerry Jeudy or Jalen Reagor.
