It is Draft Day, and you are all ready to go. All that is left is for your league commissioner to hand out the draft spots and then it is time to start building your team. You can’t wait and are eager to get started - as long as you draft in the first half of your draft.
Then you learn your draft slot is near the end of Round 1. Oops. Now what?
Don’t worry, this article is just for you. There’s a number of advantages to drafting towards the end of Round 1 (either Pick 9, 10, 11, or 12). Sure, you are not going to have a shot at Christin McCaffrey or Saquan Barkley, but there are multiple ways to build a winning team. Here are some of the positives from drafting towards the back of Round 1:
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The first 5-7 teams are going to focus on running back in nearly every draft. As Matt Waldman once pointed out, the turnover of the top-12 running backs each year is 50%. That means if 5-6 running backs are off the board when it comes time for your first pick, you can take some solace in that about half of those tailbacks will not be RB1’s this season.
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The tail end of Round 1 ensures you of not just one but TWO top-16 players on your draft list (if not higher), and FOUR top-40 players.
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Having two picks fewer than six picks apart (1.09, 2.04, or closer together) affords you the opportunity to take two players fighting for one key spot, such as the battle between Jordan Howard and Matt Breida for the lead back role in Miami.
Here are some suggestions for strategies to employ for anyone picking towards the back of Round 1:
First and Second Rounds - The decision on Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce is the consensus top tight end across the board this year, with only George Kittle close to his tier. Snapping up Kelce affords any team with his services the most likely TE1 for 2020, and a significant advantage at the position. Finding ways to compete against the teams drafting RB1-RB6 this year means building around other advantages for your starting lineup, and Kelce is one of the clear paths to that end. The tricky spots for choosing Kelce are Picks 9 and 10 in the first round, simply because if you decide to forego Kelce in Round 1, he is unlikely to get back to you in Round 2. Even worse is that once Kelce goes off of the draft board, someone is going to focus on getting Kittle - so both elite tier options could be gone. A very strong strategy is to take Kelce in Round 1 and then the best running back or wide receiver that falls to you in Round 2. The sweet spot is Pick 10, as odds are that one of the four picks before your second-round selection will be Kittle, so a maximum of three wide receivers and running backs will be gone between your picks.
The Footballguys’ Staff did a great job of breaking down a strategy for a late first-round pick (and early second) in this article.
Sequence Matters
After the first two rounds are done, a key advantage for drafting late in odd-numbered rounds is the ability to watch what the teams behind you are drafting. Focus not only on what they have taken but also what they need, as that will strongly indicate the positions likely to be addressed with one or both of their next two picks. For example, let’s say you have PIck 10 and you are getting close to your turn in Round 5. Looking at Teams 11 and 12, you notice that both already have two wide receivers and just one running back, and your Top 5 list has two running backs and three wideouts. Taking a running back is the correct choice, as both of your backs are likely to be gone before your next opportunity - but most of your wide receivers are going to be there since it is rather unlikely that they will want a fourth this early. At most, two wide receivers will be gone, leaving you your third option. Securing your top tailback and your third-best wideout is a great result. This technique also works well for teams in need (or already owning) a tight end or a quarterback.
Another important part of the order of your two picks near the turn is to try and start positional runs. If you decide that you want a quarterback soon, taking your best option in the even-numbered round could start a domino effect at the position, where 4-5 teams also snag one before your next pick. That’s great news, as value at the other positions will fall to the next round. In addition, the teams drafting behind you will feel left out if they do not have a quarterback yet either (with even longer runs between picks), so even more quarterbacks are likely to be selected soon. Starting runs at a position you just filled is a great feeling, and the highest probability of kicking one off is to address that roster need with 14-20 picks to come after yours.
Incorporating ADP
ADP is a funny thing. Most everyone knows what it means, but do you remember what the first word is? ADP starts with "Average", and that is all it is - the average spot in a draft a player is selected. If there are 100 drafts and a player’s ADP is 50, that could mean he typically goes between Pick 46 and 54, or he is selected anywhere between 38 and 62 since it is just an average. The ADP gives one number, but not the range where that player might go off the board. When you have draft picks close together, getting a player near ADP is often a challenge. The best way to use ADP for a maximum benefit is to try and see what players are unlikely to be available for your next selection. It does not matter if you take a player with an ADP of 40, 45, 50, or 55 with your early fourth-round pick since most or all of them will be gone by your chance in Round 5. Look at the ADP list as the menu of options for that round, and take the one that matters most to your team.
Lastly, use the Draft Dominator both before and during your draft. Do a few mock drafts from several different draft slots to get a feel for how to build the best team, and then use the Draft Dominator to track everyone’s selections to see what positions are a need for teams drafting between your picks. Best of luck this season!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
