Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool, and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the final edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in the 2020 season. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
In some leagues, it is Week 17 – and not the traditional Week 16 – when championships are decided. If you fall into that bucket, we have you covered with the match-up insights as always. While the landscape this week is somewhat rockier, there are several key spots we can target as teams clamor for postseason glory.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s matchups.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
Baltimore pass rushers at Cincinnati
The Bengals have not fared well in protecting the passer this season. Indeed, it was one of the causes espoused by many a resident of the Queen City as Joe Burrow continued to get pummelled week after week, until eventually, the dam broke. Since then, Cincinnati’s line has allowed sacks at the sixth-highest rate in the league at 7.9%. Interestingly, over the last three games the unit has tidied up their act somewhat, surrendering just four sacks over a three-week period.
The challenge this week comes in the form of the red-hot Ravens defense, however. The unit has averaged 3.1 sacks per game at home and has racked up an astounding 11 sacks over the past two outings. John Harbaugh’s team has everything to play for and will base their victory on a smothering defense. With the Ravens averaging pressure on 18.4% of dropbacks and the Bengals allowing pressure on 19.7%, this is a match-up made in heaven.
Key stat: The Bengals have allowed eight quarterback hits (average 5.57) and have recorded 40.5 dropbacks per game (average 37.4).
Washington pass rushers at Philadelphia
The Football Team has their destiny in their own hands and will be keen to finish the job in style behind a stifling defensive effort. The unit did not cover themselves in glory last week, granted, but the Eagles offensive line has given up pressure at one of the highest rates in the league at 21.7%, with 4.1 sacks and 9.1 QB hits per game to boot. The front four of Washington, with Chase Young a wrecking ball, will be licking their chops.
While Washington’s pass rush has statistically fared better at home than away – 3.6 sacks per game at home compared to 2.1 per game on their travels – this match-up is too spicy to turn down and should yield massive outputs. With Jalen Hurts at quarterback the Eagles lose that bit of veteran savvy that keeps plays alive, and as a result, they have given up nine sacks over the past two games. Ron Rivera’s team will like those odds.
Key stat: The Football Team ranks fourth in sack percentage with a mark of 8.1%, though that drops to 5.7% on the road.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Tennessee pass rushers at Houston
Mike Vrabel will be quietly seething at his team’s lack of ability to generate a pass rush, perhaps the crucial piece missing from the Tennessee roster. Averaging pressure on just 9.9% of opponent dropbacks, the Titans have been feeble all season, and that has resulted in teams being able to come back even after establishing a big lead. In this match-up of weakness against weakness, the Titans appear to have the tougher assignment.
Houston, after all, has allowed pressure on 17.6% of dropbacks and has allowed an average of 3.1 sacks per game. Interestingly, though, they have performed better at home, with a mark of 2.4 sacks per game allowed compared to 3.6 per game on the road. Statistical oddities aside, the Titans rank dead last in sacks with just 15 all season and should be avoided this week.
Key stat: The Titans pass rush has averaged just one sack per game, compared to the league average of 2.21.
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
Dallas and NY Giants defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 1st
Owing to the generous TVO factor in MetLife, the Giants have averaged 58 tackle opportunities per game at home and face an offense in Dallas that appears to be humming suddenly. Indeed, the Andy Dalton-led Cowboys offense ranks fourth in tackle opportunities allowed with 54.7 per game and stands to give the Giants all they can handle in this must-win clash for both teams.
Indeed, despite the struggles of the Giants offense, they are capable of wringing value out of the Cowboys defense as well. After all, Dallas has had its fair share of inconsistencies on that side of the ball and Joe Judge and the Giants coaching staff will understand there are holes to exploit. With the TVO factor acting as the proverbial tide to lift all ships, this is an excellent match-up to invest in.
Key stat: The Giants stadium stat crew recorded a 1.367 TVO factor in their last home game, vaulting them into the top position in the league.
Carolina defenders vs. New Orleans
Stadium TVO rank: 9th
The Saints have been an outstanding tackle match-up as a road team, allowing 57.4 tackle opportunities per game as they lean on a ground game to soften up opposing defenses. While the six-touchdown outburst from Alvin Kamara is unlikely to be repeated in Carolina this week, there is little doubt that New Orleans will test the vulnerable Panthers front seven with their physical offensive line. New Orleans, by the way, has a rush percentage of 46.3% this season.
Of both sides, the Carolina defenders hold more appeal, with Vegas making the Saints seven-point favorites. While Matt Rhule’s team is in full evaluation mode for next season and beyond, his players have acquitted themselves well and there is a desire to impress. As such, expect Carolina to keep this game close enough that the Saints will have to keep their foot on the pedal. If things get out of hand on the scoreboard, the Saints ground game will be able to dictate things and increase the tackle output of all the Panthers’ main players.
Key stat: The Saints average 31.3 rushing attempts on the road per game.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
Minnesota and Detroit defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 30th
There is little joy to be found in this NFC North rubber match, with both teams playing for nothing more than pride. Unfortunately, there is not much to look at from a tackle production perspective either. Detroit’s offense has hit a wall recently and averages just 22.7 rushing attempts, while the Vikings have averaged just 22.5 rushing attempts over the past two games. The TVO factor places this match-up at the bottom of the barrel, so this one should be avoided at all costs.
If you are to rely on one side, make it Detroit’s defenders. The Vikings are the implied heavy favorites and should be able to parlay their Vegas number of -7 into a comfortable victory.
Key stat: Though both teams rank in the top four in rush attempts faced this season, the TVO rank and the implied game script (Minnesota is favored by 6.5 points) take the shine off things.
Indianapolis defenders vs. Jacksonville
Stadium TVO rank: 18th
The Colts defense has averaged just 49.5 tackle opportunities per game this season, a perfect example of a unit whose overall quality has lowered the ceiling of its constituent players. With the TVO making Lucas Oil Stadium an average to below-average option for tackle production and given Jacksonville’s struggles of late to produce a consistent offense, this is an easy fade from the Colts perspective.
Granted, the Colts pass rushers might have more success, so if you can play any of those that would be an excellent option. If your league does not trend that way in terms of scoring, however, this is a must-fade.
Key stat: The Jaguars offense has averaged just 21.2 rushing attempts per game (average 26.2).
Best of luck with Week 17 and make sure to check back next season for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
