Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool, and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the 16th edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in the 2020 season. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
The finish line is in sight, with championships set to be decided in most leagues this week. Having clarity on line-ups with the assistance of the match-up data can be helpful, but there is always a bit of gut involved in these crucial calls as well. Finding the right balance for your management style is the key. Good luck to everyone.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s match-ups.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
New Orleans pass rushers vs. Minnesota offensive line
Averaging pressure on 18.9% of opponent dropbacks, the New Orleans pass rush has been one of the most consistent bets of the season. That means one thing: there is no better team to rely on in championship week, especially with the Saints fighting hard for playoff seeding. Fortunately for them, the Vikings offensive line has been on a negative trend recently, allowing 4.3 sacks per game over the last three games.
The implied game script points to a comfortable Saints victory, which will be aided by having a controlled performance from Drew Brees to complement a stifling defensive effort. While Minnesota has plenty to offer themselves on offense, the Saints should be able to contain even their most explosive players and turn this into a one-sided affair. Be sure to plug in your Saints for extra punch this week.
Key stat: The Saints pass rush averages 3.1 sacks per game at home, compared with 2.6 per game on the road.
Baltimore pass rushers vs. New York Giants
With the Ravens favored by 10.5 points – and with everything to play for – the Giants players might be forgiven for letting out an audible gulp when they ponder the prospects. New York’s offensive line will be concerned, having surrendered pressure on 20.1% of dropbacks along with 2.9 sacks per game. The eight-sack debacle against the Cardinals could be repeated this week against a defense that loves to blitz.
Daniel Jones’ health will be pivotal; if he can move around the pocket and escape pass rushers, the Giants could extend drives. If not, the offensive line will be sitting ducks along with an immobile Jones. Baltimore’s pass rush has averaged 7.3 quarterback hits per game and should be able to thrive in this plum match-up. Do not overthink, simply play your Ravens.
Key stat: The Giants offensive line has allowed 7.1 quarterback hits per game.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Pittsburgh pass rushers vs. Indianapolis offensive line
In a match-up of strength versus strength, who comes out on top? That will be the question as AFC contenders face off in Pittsburgh, with the Steelers’ defensive might taking on the brick wall that the Colts offensive line has turned into. With the recent momentum of these teams – and given Philip Rivers’ propensity to rely on short passes – even the Steelers will be hard-pressed to get pressure on a unit that has given up pressure on just 9.3% of dropbacks.
The smart play here is to assume that the game script will not allow a situation where Rivers must drop back 40+ times, with Vegas setting the line at -2.5 in the home team’s favor. The Steelers average 4.4 sacks per game at home, but their upside is hugely capped by the match-up. It would be unwise to bench your Steelers outright, but give strong consideration to alternatives.
Key stat: The Colts have allowed a sack allowed percentage of just 3.2%, ranked 31st in the league.
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
New England and Buffalo defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 1st
When faced with a championship match-up line-up decision this week, the thought process should feature players from this game. The Patriots have been one of the best tackle match-up teams this season and it is entirely down to their stubbornness to stick with the run at all costs. Cam Newton’s running abilities have helped their cause in totaling 31.2 rushing attempts per game. Combine that with the best TVO factor in the league and you have a formula for success.
The Bills players hold a lot of appeal in this match-up as the Patriots look to pound the rock and parlay a basic game plan into an unlikely upset. Buffalo’s offense has been highly productive all season, however, and without Stephon Gilmore the Patriots may struggle to contain their passing attack. The Vegas line calls for a relatively tight affair, so both sets of tacklers are extremely attractive options this week.
Key stat: The Patriots run the ball on 51.1% of plays, which towers above the league average of 41.3%.
Denver defenders at Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium TVO rank: 3rd
The Chargers have allowed 57.3 tackle opportunities per game, with 28.8 rushing attempts, two statistics that make their opponents a goldmine for tackle production every week. Anthony Lynn’s team has gotten over the hump with their close victory over the Raiders; now they will look to repeat the feat. The Broncos have seen 53.4 tackle opportunities per game this season and look like the most appealing side.
However, as we know, the Chargers like to keep things interesting. If Denver’s offense, featuring multiple weapons with top skill sets, can get into a groove and keep it close, both sets of tacklers could be worth plugging in. If you are taking a side, relying on Denver’s defenders is the optimal play.
Key stat: The road team is awarded an average of 9.6 more solo tackles per game in SoFi Stadium when the Chargers are playing there.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
San Francisco defenders at Arizona
Stadium TVO rank: 32nd
State Farm Stadium may be the adopted home of the 49ers, but it will not be a happy hunting ground for them in the box score this week. That is because this venue remains the worst for TVO in the league. While the awarding of solo tackles is solid, assists are where the difference is felt in bottom-line fantasy point analyses. While the 49ers are the underdogs here, it would be difficult to trust them in a championship week given the TVO landscape.
Arizona has allowed 56.4 tackle opportunities per game and average 30.4 rushing attempts per game, so the possibility is there for the 49ers players to, if you will allow me to borrow a DFS term, hit for value. However, the advice here is to fade this match-up and seek value elsewhere.
Key stat: While State Farm Stadium is solid for solo tackles, visiting teams are awarded just 15.3 assists per game.
Kansas City defenders vs Atlanta
Stadium TVO rank: 29th
The Atlanta offense relies heavily on the pass, reducing the upside of the defenders they face in the box score. Making this match-up with the Chiefs even less palatable is the fact that Arrowhead Stadium ranks 29th in TVO factor. With the Chiefs down as 10.5-point Vegas favorites, the Falcons defenders would hold more appeal of the two teams, but that TVO takes the shine off things.
The Chiefs are likely to dominate this match-up, forcing Matt Ryan into an air show in the second half. That is not a recipe for tackle success, and certainly not a risk worth taking when fantasy championships are on the line.
Key stat: The Falcons run the ball on just 37.5% of plays, comfortably below the league average of 41.3%.
Best of luck with Week 16 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
