CeeDee Lamb's Rookie Status Ended When He Stepped On the Field
Whether it was the film or the stats, CeeDee Lamb has been popping off the screen for years. FanDuel found a telling stat about Lamb's yards per reception during his career at Oklahoma, that tied him with Randy Moss and just below Marvin Harrison.
CeeDee Lamb's numbers at Oklahoma were right up there with the best WRs in college football history 🤯@numberFire goes deep on @_CeeDeeThree, including his fantasy & prop bet projections for the 2020 season: https://t.co/1cqW3TeDEn pic.twitter.com/AXkrBHS9UU
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) July 7, 2020
Fast-forward to Week 6 of the 2020 NFL season, my friend—and occasional Senior Bowl travel companion—John Owning of the Dallas Morning News has also written about Lamb exceeding the Cowboys' high expectations.
According to Pro Football Focus, Lamb has accumulated 29 catches on 39 targets for 433 yards, two touchdowns, and 20 first downs (eighth-most among NFL receivers) with just one drop while generating a 127.4 passer rating when targeted. He’s on pace for 93 receptions on 125 targets for 1,386 yards and six touchdowns — the yards would be the most by a rookie since at least 2000. Lamb has been particularly potent from the slot, where he’s aligned on 36 of his 39 targets so far. He currently ranks first in total yards (395) from that alignment.
Lamb is the first Cowboys rookie receiver to register two 100-yard receiving performances in his first five appearances. He’s currently second on the team in targets behind Cooper (53) but far ahead of Gallup (24). His 433 receiving yards lead the team, rank fifth among all NFL receivers and are the third-most for a rookie receiver through five games since 1970.
As I read the article a few minutes ago, I'm laughing about John and I being on the same wavelength with the plays he chose to break down Lamb's game. I made a video with many of the same reps that highlight several skills and traits that made him the highest-graded receiver in the history of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication:
- Old-school, contested-catch toughness.
- An array or efficient release techniques.
- Veteran feel and manipulation of zone defenses.
- Field-stretching quickness.
- Acrobatic adjustments to the football.
- Soft, flexible, and technically-sound hands.
- The best routes of any wide receiver prospect in this great class—yes, better than Jerry Jeudy.
- Athletic ability and technical skill to play any receiver role in any alignment.
Lamb is a great football player and the plays below provide a great on-field-visual argument as to why he will remain a great fantasy option in 2020 with Andy Dalton replacing the hobbled Dak Prescott under center.
Video Graphics by Peter Gumas. Inquiries for video work: Alex Hanowitz (hanowitz.alex@gmail.com)
Dalton is no Prescott. He maneuvers the pocket well enough to buy extra time and space, but not on Prescott's level. He also lacks Prescott's arm. However, as Dalton is a student of the game and has success when the coaching staff is selective about his vertical shots. Which means, you might want to monitor his rapport with Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper, but don't let someone talk you out of Lamb.
Hold onto Lamb like your fantasy team's playoff life depends on it.
Lamb Will Be Andy Dalton's Guy
Lamb is Dalton's Tyler Boyd in this offense, except that the Dallas version is already a more versatile option with a better route and contested-catch game. Last year with Dalton, Boyd had three games with at least 120 yards receiving. Boyd also had three, 100-yard efforts with Dalton in 2018—all of them while A.J. Green was healthy and producing two, 100-yard efforts as well.
Boyd has earned 255 targets, 166 catches, 2,703 yards, and 12 touchdowns during that two-year span—most of it from Dalton, who wasn't working with that much better of an offensive line than the Bengals have fielded for Joe Burrow. Boyd also led the Bengals receivers during that two-year span with 22 red-zone targets.
Keep in mind that Boyd's weekly production under Dalton ranged from efforts of 50-60 yards to 100-120 yards with the occasional lows below 40 yards. Still, Boyd had 23 quality fantasy starts in PPR leagues between 2018-2019. In 17 of those 23 games, there was another Bengals receiver who also earned a quality game.
Looking at Dalton's Next Gen Stats, Dalton is within the league average in zones of the field where the Cowboys scheme lets Lamb roam:
Dalton's work within the range of 10-20 yards is within the NFL average for most of the zones that the Cowboys have targeted Lamb in the offense. You'll also see that Dalton has been pretty good working the seams of defenses where Lamb's targets have often been (see below).
According to Next Gen Stats, the Cowboys have only split Lamb wide on 6 percent of his routes. In contrast, 83 percent of his routes have been from the slot—33 percent on the left side and 50 percent on the right—and the remaining 10 percent of his alignments have been tight to the formation. Look at any of Boyd's route charts in 2019 and they look strikingly similar in alignment and route destination to Lamb's.
This is an obvious match between a veteran quarterback and a versatile, tough, and reliable rookie who doesn't play like one.
Fantasy Advice Moving Forward
You should be keeping or buying CeeDee Lamb. If you're one of those GMs that has several good starting receivers and Lamb has either been on your bench half of the year or you've simply held onto those receivers in case Lamb "hits the rookie wall," it's time to officially lean on Lamb by parting company with one or two of those established veterans so you can upgrade elsewhere.
The Cowboys defense made Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones look less than awful. This team will try to be balanced on offense but other than Washington and Cincinnati, Dallas will have to throw the ball against tougher defenses like Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and San Francisco and keep up with the Steelers, Cardinals, Vikings, and Ravens offenses.
Lamb is on the bottom cusp of fantasy WR1 value after five weeks and No.7 since Week 3. Low-end expectations for Lamb would be top-20 production the rest of the way. Mid-range expectations would be no worse than top-15. High expectations, would be a top-10 value at the position.
When trading away other receivers, I would sell one of your surplus options with WR2 value if you can get what you need with that minimum of value given up. However, if you need to pair 1-2 receivers with WR1, WR2, and/or WR3 fantasy value to get an RB1, top-five QB, or top-3 TE, take that shot while relying on Lamb in your lineups as the linchpin for the move.
If you can low-key scare a fantasy GM out of Lamb, then, by all means, make the trade. Use the Tyler Boyd comparison as a value marker. Boyd was the 17th-ranked fantasy option in PPR formats last year and 16th the year before. That gives you a solid range of value to operate with that's actually a little lower in value than Lamb's promise in the Cowboy's offense but still a workable baseline if that's where he falls by the end of the year.
Good luck!
