When the light comes on...
I don't know about you, but I've seen lights come on in a lot of different ways. When it comes on as expected, the bulb burns bright as soon as you hit the switch. Sometimes, it's not that automatic.
The bulb flickers a few times before emitting steady light, giving you just enough pause to wonder if something is wrong. Or, the first thing to burn is the filament, glowing orange like a hot coal and then crescendoing into a brilliant glow of white that fills the glass and the surrounding space beyond.
Occasionally, one has to tap the bulb or screw it a little tighter in order to solidify the connection. And then there's always the genius solution—remembering to roll the dimmer switch to its proper position.
Young players are a lot like bulbs when you consider the variety of ways the light can come on. Depending on whether you begin the trajectory of Justin Jefferson's emergence after a slow start in training camp or in Week 1 of the regular season where the showed signs of crescendoing brilliance, the Vikings' rookie from LSU either needed a couple of love taps or a little patience to allow that orange glow of the filament to fill the room with light.
After earning 9 targets, 7 catches, 175 yards, and a touchdown in Week 3, as long as Jefferson continues performing like an NFL starter, no one cares about his development trajectory. Based on the three games I studied of Jefferson's new NFL portfolio of work, there are excellent reasons to consider him an immediate impact rookie whose light will continue shining as long as Kirk Cousins accidentally hits the dimmer switch while screaming if we 'liked that.'
Just as told you in May 2019 that A.J. Brown, despite concerns from much of the fantasy community, had one of the best player-team fits from his draft class, I hold similar optimism for Jefferson in Minnesota. The reasons are similar:
- Brown and Jefferson have experience performing at a high level from the slot and along the boundary.
- Both have above-average skills after the catch.
- Both joined teams with strong ground games that use play-action effectively.
- Both passing games value the slot receiver.
What the five-minute analysis below that includes reps from all three games, and you'll understand why Jefferson's starter output in Week 3 wasn't a fluke. He thrived on option routes as a Senior at LSU, which requires a refined knowledge of zones and how to read and to work through the coverage triangle of three defenders.
He's a tough receiver who takes contact from any angle and comes down with the football. This is an uncommon trait. Ask Julio Jones, who has made a career out of excellent route running and YAC skills and can take a hit to the back while in the act of the catch, but he routinely drops passes when there's a flash of a defender in his sightline.
Jefferson also has a knack for making the first man miss after the catch. There's a play below where his dip around a middle linebacker immediately after catching a slant is one of the most subtly impressive feats you'll see from a receiver this month.
But what about man-to-man coverage, Matt? Is he really a good outside receiver? I heard that he was strictly a slot guy and not that fast, despite posting one of the better 40-Yard-Dash marks at the position.
As someone who watched his 2019 AND 2018 film, the analysis about Jefferson lacking a perimeter game is rooted in the same lack of due diligence seen from those who concluded Nick Chubb and Melvin Gordon couldn't catch the football because they have low target totals as collegians. Although I only showed two reps against man-to-man concepts in this short video, there were more instances from his film where he had the speed to run past cornerbacks who didn't jam him.
And in the case of the defensive back that played Jefferson tight, the rookie delivered an expert combo of a hesitation, double-up, and shed release to easily clear the opponent. You'll also see that if Cousins threw the go route rather than a semi-accurate, back-shoulder fade against the Titans, Jefferson could have earned more than a step on the venerable Malcolm Butler.
Everything you need to see from Jefferson that matters for his fantasy impact is below.
Enjoyed the video? Contact Alex Hanowitz (hanowitz.alex@gmail.com) if you're a football analyst seeking graphics and editing work like this. Additional thanks to Video and Motion Graphics editor Peter Gumas for his work on this episode.
Because Jefferson is a long, rangy, and quick target with quickness, physicality, and interchangeable savvy outside and inside, he's an adequate replacement to Stefon Diggs, who has more big-play speed but less grit in the middle of the field. The Vikings recognize the offense must throw the ball more this year to stay in games because the defense has an inexperienced secondary that's on track to give up 544 points this season if they don't improve.
This isn't what the team wanted when it put the turnover-prone Cousins in this run-heavy system two years ago, but it's the reality of the situation. If you watched Jefferson last week, you might have noted that he had a route error that resulted in a pick-six against Tennesse but his good plays have easily outweighed the bad, and a blown route is a correctable mental error that we even see occasionally from veterans.
With Seattle, Atlanta, Green Bay, Detroit (twice), Dallas, Tampa, and New Orleans consisting of 8 of the remaining 12 games on the fantasy-relevant schedule, it's hard to imagine that Jefferson won't be expected to earn at least 6-9 targets per contest.
Adam Harstad often recommends going hard to the hole when it comes to waiver-wire pickups. While this year may seem like it could be an exception to his argument because of the looming potential for positive COVID-19 tests that force late-week quarantines, most leagues have first-come, first-serve periods that will help you with those late-week changes if they impact you.
This is why his advice is worth repeating:
If you look through your league's history, you'll probably find that the overwhelming majority of FAAB dollars are spent on players who make absolutely no impact whatsoever. Big-budget acquisitions, small-budget acquisitions, makes no difference. Most of the true impact acquisitions are guys who were acquired for free a couple of weeks before they broke out, not guys who were acquired for a substantial percentage of your budget after they broke out. (There are always exceptions, but I think you'll find that those exceptions tend to be dramatically rarer than our faulty memory would suggest.)
As a result, I tend to think the best practice is to just throw a substantial percentage of your budget at the first promising player who catches your eye (well north of 50%, more like 80% or even 100% if you can make moves for free later and you really want a guy), and then for the rest of the season proactively roster players with the potential to break out soon.
(One exception to this is Superflex leagues, where any quarterback with a pulse and a starting job is virtually guaranteed to outscore anyone else you could possibly start in that Superflex spot, so it makes sense to reserve some budget to acquire backup quarterbacks who become suddenly elevated to the starting role.)
Jefferson is one of these windows of opportunity worth an aggressive play. I would bid as much as 60-70 percent of my FAAB for his skills.
If you're considering trading for Jefferson, I'm projecting mid-range fantasy WR2 value as his ceiling and the cusp of fantasy WR2/WR3 value as his baseline. We're talking about production within the range of 195-215 points. Last year's receivers on this cusp ranged from WR2s like A.J. Brown, Davante Adams, and Michael Gallup and WRs like Odell Beckham, Jamison Crowder, and Calvin Ridley.
This WR2/WR3 cusp in PPR leagues last year was equivalent these options at other positions:
- TEs ranked 4th-6th: Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews, and Austin Hooper
- Fantasy RB2s ranging from Le'Veon Bell at No.16 to Josh Jacobs at No.21.
