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The Gut Check No.516: Rams, Steelers, and Lions RB Roulette

Matt Waldman's The Gut Check No.516: Rams, Steelers, and Lions RB Roulette
By Matt Waldman, September 16, 2020

The Gut Check No.516: Rams, Steelers, and Lions RB Roulette
Photo: Imagn Images

The Steelers, Rams, and Lions are the epicenter of a fantasy maelstrom for running backs that the herd of suburban, square-haired, golf-shirt wearing, low-key gambling addicts otherwise making up a significant portion of fantasy players and analysts don't want to come anywhere near. Understandable.

For the rest of us plebians who (need to or like to) get our hands dirty, grinding through these backfields gives us knowledge that the golf shirts find inconvenient from their odds calculations. It gets in the way of their planned excursion to Hilton Head where they'll get another family portrait cast in all-white attire.

Isn't that a precious uniform? Jay Gatsby would be proud.

Based on the film, there are three clear fantasy winners from these backfields for at least the next 2-3 weeks and one that I would take the risk to consider long-term bets for the rest of the season. I'll show you why.

Malcolm Brown is the Winning Play in L.A. (For Now...)

As mentioned in Monday's Top 10, Cam Akers started the game but it was Brown who dominated the touches and production. Deservedly so. The first thing you must know about the Rams' performance to understand why Brown is the back to have for your fantasy roster is Sean McVay's play calls on Sunday night.

Last year, L.A. abandoned its wide zone scheme for a gap attack halfway through the season because McVay lacked the personnel to execute it. This was a big deal because McVay's scheme is dependent on a small number of plays and a large amount of window dressing to disguise them. As a result, his offenses are more dependent on flawless execution than others.

After selecting a pair of gap runners in consecutive drafts, it was reasonable to wonder if McVay would change his approach and maintain a gap-heavy run scheme. Sunday night's contest with the Cowboys revealed that while McVay has opted to keep gap plays as part of the offense, he's returned to wide zone as a significant part of his scheme.

This is important because Darrell Henderson was lost in that scheme last year and Cam Akers has moments of competency with it, but his natural inclinations are hitting the crease with an urgency that's good for gap but yields inconsistent results at best for zone.

This was a good decision for Akers, but only 2 of his 14 carries featured a demonstration of patience to set up a cutback and only 1 was a well-executed tactic. Of those 14 carries, only a few of them were gap runs and he trouble with setting up one of them.

As with many young, athletic backs who favor gap running, Akers is in a hurry to hit the crease and while the athletic ability to overcome early obstacles makes some of his short runs exciting and evokes the imagination of what will happen when he busts through the first level of a defense, it's this approach that will limit that outcome too often at this time.

In contrast, Malcolm Brown understands the craft of running the football more than Akers at this time and it showed up Sunday night. While he hit creases with authority like Akers, he also knew when to take his time and set up plays.

People shouldn't sleep on Brown but they do because of his draft capital. Although he was a decent starter at Texas, he never lived up to his five-star buzz and his 4.62-second, 40-Yard performance at the NFL Combine also hurt his stock. However, his 20-Yard Shuttle (4.15 seconds) and Three-Cone (6.86) performances were elite results, especially for a 225-pound running back.

I've found that these two metrics are the most important indicators of initial acceleration, stop-start acceleration, and change-of-direction quickness. As long as the back understands blocking schemes and makes mature decisions based on them, these three factors are far more important than long speed. Brown possessed this combination of traits and it's why he has earned a role in the NFL.

You can see his burst on display from the clip above as well as these touches below.

He also turned down a free agent offer with the Lions during the Rams' Super Bowl window, which might have earned him more playing time rather than toiling behind Todd Gurley. It's only a one-game sample, but based on Brown's workload, the Rams trusted him the most as the short-yardage back.

Fantasy Advice: Akers' 14 carries in the opener shouldn't be something you dismiss, but Brown absolutely out-played the rookie and was trusted more in the red-zone, short-yardage, and the passing game. Short-term, Brown is worth acquiring but be aware that Akers will likely earn a similar split of touches with Brown for the next 3-4 weeks with the hope that he'll get more comfortable with the zone blocking.

Akers is not unfamiliar with zone concepts, but he is less refined with running them. We've seen this early in Tevin Coleman's career. If you acquire Brown, you're making a short-term bet that he'll provide you fantasy value for at least a month and a long-term hope that Akers won't acclimate and Brown earns the lead role for the rest of the season.

This means Brown is worth a priority selection if you need a back right away but don't count on him overcoming the NFL's Draft Capital Bias that's on Akers' side without a complete Akers meltdown or injury.

Benny Snell Had a Good Night (Everything Else is Narrative and Speculation)

I've been touting James Conner as a top-five fantasy running back all summer. If that leads you to lump me in with people who have a "political agenda" to remain correct about my original view, go ahead and do so at your peril.

Yes, there have been rumblings about Snell performing well during training camp. And Snell's 100-yard performance delivers an opportunity for those in his camp to tell you that he's the player to have in the Steelers' backfield.

They're dead-wrong when their arguments veer into declarations that Snell was a better runner than Conner on Sunday night. Out-gaining and out-performing aren't always the same things in football. And against the Giants, the film shows that the Giants defensive front earned penetration from multiple gaps early in the game and cut off Conner's cutback and bounce lanes.

As the game progressed, the line got into a groove after Conner suffered his ankle sprain and Snell reaped the benefits.

It's true that Snell performed well. It's also true Snell performed with better resources at his disposal (open running lanes). The fact that he looked quicker than last year also led to narratives that Snell is a better athlete than Conner and deserves the job.

While I have not doubts that Snell has benefitted from a year of NFL-caliber training and conditioning that has made him more explosive, an equally important factor behind his improved quickness is the increased speed that comes from improved mental processing of the playbook and the actions of the defenders on the field.

Big creases, confident decisions, and a little more speed and quickness makes a player look at lot faster if the year before he was a rookie and his athletic metrics were below average for an NFL starter but still good enough to earn a draft-day selection.

Snell was not perfect. He still lacked some seasoning with setting up specific lead blocks.

Overall, he set up creases well, found cutbacks, and earned what the line opened for him plus a little more if he could use his size and strength to push through contact.

In contrast, Conner has that one extra move at the second level to earn longer gains despite lacking breakaway speed. He's also a better pass catcher. Snell had a good night and displayed he can be the starter.

The difference in the line play early and late makes it a huge stretch to say that Snell is a better running back than Conner. The repeated statements from Mike Tomlin from spring through early fall that Conner would be the feature back also diminish the value of the narrative that Snell would force a committee.

Fantasy Advice: Snell may not have out-played Conner, but he's healthy and performing well enough that the circumstance now create an opportunity for Snell to force a committee with Conner for at least the next 1-2 weeks. With the risk of Conner's ankle injury lingering, Snell has RB1 upside behind this line as long as Ben Roethlisberger stays healthy.

Still, the early prognosis for Conner's injury is promising. He didn't suffer a high ankle sprain and there's talk he might be ready next week. Based on my vast medical expertise I've gained through the osmosis of road trips and sharing hotel rooms with Jene Bramel for the past 8-10 years (this is considered a scientific fact in Alabama and Georgia), I can tell you that Conner's slightly limp and attempt to play a few more snaps after the injury indicates the injury is a milder issue.

If Conner returns close to full health, expect a committee for the next 1-2 weeks and then Conner to earn most of the workload due to his third-down value and overall superior skills. However, Snell earns an even sharper rise in value if Conner has a setback.

I am against going hard to the hole for Snell. You'll be overpaying for a back based on the massive upside that could come if he's the sole starter, but the Steelers like feature backs and Adam Schefter was told by a team source that the team is "optimistic for a timely return." It was best to have drafted Snell as your Conner backup, don't panic-buy his services.

Adrian Peterson Is the Long-Term Play

I feel like a broken record here. I already arrived at this conclusion before he got hurt in Arizona and prior to his fantasy-starter campaign in Washignton two years ago, and I'm there again with Peterson after studying his performance against the Bears.

Like Brown, Peterson didn't start the game and most of his carries came in the second half but by game's end, he vastly out-touched and out-pointed the rest of the backfield and showed why the initial idea that the Lions would "keep him happy with some touches while feeding the incumbents" is rapidly becoming and outdated notion.

I'll be sharing a deeper dive into the All-22 of Peterson's performance that reveals a lot about where Peterson's game stands after all these years. For now, these handful of plays should give you a sense as to why Peterson will be a mainstay in this offense as a significant part of a committee, if not the lead back for a Detroit team that has the offense to contend for a playoff spot.

Fantasy Advice: Kerryon Johnson's talent is undeniable, but so is his injury history, current issues with his knee, and touch-count. If you're going to bet on anyone other than Peterson this season, DAndre Swift is the best bet after for growth in play and touches as 2020 unfolds.

You're also getting Peterson at a potential discount because the sous vide, golf-shirt, green visor crowd will see his age and the Lions' New England-Matt Patricia connection as a risky fantasy scenario that could decline into a mysterious backfield committee. It means you should get him as cheaply as Brown if not cheaper.

This early in the season, none of these backs are magic-bullet running back solutions. If you want one of those, you should have drafted Jonathan Taylor or possibly J.K. Dobbins or Joshua Kelley.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags RB strategy Cam Akers Malcolm Brown Tevin Coleman James Conner J.K. Dobbins Darrell Henderson Jr. Kerryon Johnson Joshua Kelley Adrian Peterson Ben Roethlisberger Benny Snell Jr. D'Andre Swift Jonathan Taylor

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