We're now at the edge of the cliff. Whether it's one player or several, you've had to make the leap if you've come to play.
After spending the summer studying 2019 and 2020 tape, monitoring personnel changes and consulting with the groundhog in my back yard, it's almost time to unveil my bold projections for the 2020 NFL season.
First, let's look back at last year's disaster:
- Patrick Mahomes II breaks Peyton Manning's regular-season touchdown record: Nope.
- T.J. Hockenson earns the best fantasy production for a rookie tight end since Mike Ditka: Bupkis.
- Ezekiel Elliott earns career highs in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns: Elliot was good but not close to his career highs.
- LeSean McCoy will be a Top-10 fantasy runner in Kansas City: Ha!
- Josh Gordon plays the entire season: This was the equivalent of betting against death and taxes.
- Lamar Jackson earns 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns from scrimmage: Even a chump like me gets it right once in a while.
- Dede Westbrook will be a top-20 receiver: If you can have seen me as I read this again, I was cringing.
- Matt Breida out-points Tevin Coleman and earns top-12 fantasy RB production: In an alternate universe, Matt Breida is spelled R-a-h-e-e-m M-o-s-t-e-r-t and Mostert didn't reach those heights either.
One out of eight (12.5%) is failing if this were a quiz with equal weight given to each prediction. However, I think we all know that the Jackson could get me to 75% in a weighted format of my own fantasy.
No? Well, some of you who won with Jackson agree even if I couldn't write that last sentence with a straight face.
Let's see if I can emerge from this two-year slump without mailing-in easy predictions. I should have reminded myself that A.J. Brown as the top fantasy receiver was a bold prediction for most so may be I should start making bold predictions like most fantasy analysts.
Nah.
(What's the fun in that?)
Josh Jacobs Earns Top-3 Production Among PPR RBs
Lynn Bowden, Jr. is a talented football player. It takes talent to essentially play three different positions and special teams at an SEC program. Kentucky's coaching staff praised his smarts, telling a broadcast team weeks before the team asked Bowden to start for the Wildcats as its emergency quarterback in 2019 that Bowden knew the offense well enough to play under center.
But as good of an athlete that he is, he is not a refined talent at any of the positions he played in college. This is why it was puzzling to me that the Raiders drafted him in the third round as a running back. It was even more confusing to hear expectations from football media and fans that the rookie Bowden would be used as a scatback and limit the touches of Josh Jacobs, much less Jalen Richard.
Catching the ball isn't the only, or even the most important, criteria for becoming a factor on third down. Understanding pass protection assignments is the most critical. Competent blocking is also essential. And even if a back can catch the football, running good routes from the backfield is a different game than running routes detached from the formation.
Josh Jacobs was an excellent pass catcher and a solid route runner at Alabama. He also showed promise as a pass protector. He had a fantastic rookie year as a runner but couldn't take away the third-down and two-minute duties from Richard, an underrated scatback who I often refer to as the James White of the AFC West.
I've had Jacobs projected for 60 receptions since May despite rampant speculation that Bowden would get in the way. Jacobs told the media to begin training camp that 60 reception was his goal for the 2020 season.
Players don't make unrealistic predictions as often as it appears. And when they do, it's often a beat reporter asking a player, "Do you think if everything fell into place with the health of the offensive line, that you can earn 2,000 yards rushing this year?" When the player says yes, it's possible, the reporter and his editor lead with "Colts RB Aims for 2,000-Yard Season."
Whether it was Jon Gruden or Jacobs' running back coach, someone told Jacobs to prepare for a bigger workload in the passing game and probably gave him a figure that they hope he'd earn in 2020.
Despite the early headlines that the Raiders traded Bowden to Miami because they didn't think he was mature enough to handle Las Vegas—and based on his background and how he handled college life, that's a questionable assertion even if it's possible—Mike Mayock defended Bowden and told the media that the trade was a football decision.
Even Vic Tafur's report about Bowden's questionable maturity provided examples of Bowden being slow to pick up the system, which is something Mayock corroborated and attributed in part to the COVID-adjustment football environment. Again, it was puzzling that the Raiders would draft an athlete without a refined position this high and expect him to contribute immediately when they have two superior backs on the team.
Jacobs missed three full games and parts of others and still earned 1,316 yards from scrimmage as a rookie. He was on track for a 1,300-yard rushing output and 25-30 receptions.
The Raiders have a cohesive offensive line filled with maulers in the run game. There's little standing in the way of Edwards earning 300 carries, 1,400 yards rushing, and doubling his reception total. If he reaches the 60 reception mark and builds on his rookie rushing totals, he's well within range of becoming a top-3 fantasy producer at the position.
Considering that most of the projected uptick comes in the passing game in a division with offenses that will likely dictate this kind of game script, it doesn't feel especially bold to call for an elite season from a promising talent behind a veteran offensive line. However, I'm betting that I've been ahead of the curve with Jacobs' receiving potential for 2020.
Matthew Stafford Eclipses 5,000 Yards And 40 Touchdowns
Stafford was halfway to the 5,000-yard mark last year before breaking bones in his back. The former overall No.1 pick in the NFL Draft endured years of criticism as the figurehead of a Lions offense that often lacked the full complement of talent to maximize his potential.
While some of that criticism was warranted, not all of it was accurate. Years later, the Lions have steadily added the tools that should make the offense thrive. This is a diverse set of skill talent backed by a promising and athletic offensive line.
Kenny Golladay excels at the catch point and as a ballcarrier. Marvin Jones is among the best contested-catch options in the NFL and, along with Saints' vet Emmanuel Sanders, is one of the better all-around receivers in the league that isn't talked about.
T.J. Hockenson has been unguardable in camp and looks ready to deliver on the promise of being the best tight end from a rich 2019 class. And Quintez Cephus has acclimated fast enough that he could deliver big-slot production and back up the likes of Jones or Golladay outside.
Stafford spent years delivering Mahomes-esque pinpoint targets in big-time situations only for his undermanned receiving corps to drop the ball. This quartet of options—not counting the sure-handed but aging Danny Amendola—have the skills to let Stafford access the ceiling of his talents.
Although the backfield is a question mark, there is no shortage of talent among Adrian Peterson, D'Andre Swift, and Kerryon Johnson. This trio could be resonsible for several viable paths to help Stafford reach this bold mark.
If the offensive line plays to its potential and Peterson emerges as the lead or bellcow, he'll be the catalyst for an excellent play-action game that earns big-play efficiency. Lots of chunk plays and scores off fewer attempts could be the result if Peterson continues to hum along.
If Swift or Johnson earn the lead, both possess strong receiving skills and can be detached in empty sets that allow Stafford to spread the field and throw at will.
Although the Lions offense lacks the marquee draw of the Chiefs, Seahawks, Saints, Buccaneers, and Cowboys, their starting receiver rotation and tight end has the talent to belong in this conversation, even if the production isn't as proven. If I told you Patrick Mahomes II, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, or Dak Prescott would throw for 5,000 yards, you'd either consider it a realistic expectation or not too surprising based on the talent of the quarterback.
Stafford and the Lions belong in that group.
Saints Tight End Adam Trautman Will Lead Rookie Tight Ends in Receiving
Harrison Bryant is the Rookie Scouting Portfolio's top-rated rookie tight end for dynasty formats, and he's poised to overtake David Njoku in what could be the Irv Smith, Jr. role in the Cleveland offense. Although not considered a viable fantasy option in re-drafts this year, Bryant has the best odds of delivering in this capacity in 2020.
Yet, the Saints' Trautman is also another compelling player with the potential to shock fantasy football and the NFL with his ability. The little-known Dayton Flyer seemingly has a big leap to make from a small school to the NFL and with Jared Cook as one of the most productive tight ends in football, the chances Trautman emerges as a rookie seems remote.
But is it?
Mark Schofield interviewed Trautman at the Senior Bowl and discovered a player with advanced knowledge for his position, at any college level, when it comes to the assignment side of football and coverage reading. Based on my tape study, Trautman's technical prowess at the line of scrimmage and against press coverage was advanced for his age, regardless of his college competition.
A lot of fans and evaluators place great weight on the level of competition that a player faces. To an extent, this is logical.
Productive football players from small programs often lack the physical dimensions and athletic ability of NFL players and it's important to determine that a prospect can hold up against top athletes. Still, prospects at top programs often lack the tehnical and conceptual skills that are prerequisites for NFL play.
I have seen hundreds of players who physically fit the part but when there's an opportunity to display a technique or understanding of what's happening around them, they fail. Some learn those skills and thrive, many don't and fail.
Often, it doesn't matter if the athlete performed these techincal and conceptual feats against and equally-sound technician on defense. You're seeking what the player can do within his own control to put himself and his teammates into position for positive outcomes.
If the player has NFL athletic ability and displays fluid and timely technique and processing of information, his chances of developing into a good NFL player are strong. Trautman has the physical dimensions and athletic ability of an NFL starter, and his techniques and grasp of concepts are ahead of the curve compared to many tight ends I've watched even at the FBS level.
It matters less than you think that he executed these feats against a lower level of athletes because he is an elite athlete. The fact that the Saints staff and players have characterized Trautman as advanced for a rookie in terms of learning the game at higher rate and knowing how to practice is a testament to this point.
The fact that Sean Payton has told the media that Trautman will have a role in the offense this year, and they love that he can contribute as a blocker and a receiver validates why it's not so far fetched to keep Trautman on your list of waiver wire options for monitoring.
Another point of consideration is the structure of the Saints offense. Payton loves using a balanced scheme, and the Saints have a great offensive line. The run game sets up efficient play-action passing. When a team can use 12 personnel sets, it creates matchup problems in coverage because the defense must naturally account for the run a little more.
As odd as it sounds, Cook is the team's deep threat. He averaged 16.4 yards per catch last year. He's a big, speedy receiver who wins up the seam and along the boundary on routes that leverage his ability to track and rebound.
Jimmy Graham averged 13.2 and 14.1 yards per catch during two of his best seasons (2011 and 2013) with the Saints. Cook's role as the detachable deep threat from the tight end position has precedent in this offense.
While Trautman is capable of eventually doing the same, maybe sooner than later if Cook gets hurt, his potential and early showing as a blocker also make him a candidate for some high-leverage, play-action targets where he'll sneak behind the shallow and intermediate zone coverage for easy looks. Think of Hunter Henry's rookie year and how many easy targets he had that generated viable fantasy production.
At minimum, this could be the situation for Trautman this year. Don't let the ego of unearthing a hidden gem lead you to the waiver wire this week to drop a known commodity for him. However, keep tabs on the first month of Saints games and pull the trigger if the signs are there and you have the luxury.
Tua Tagovailoa Will Outplay Joe Burrow And Deliver Starter Production after Week 9
Burrow has had a good rookie camp as the Bengals' starter. Tagovailoa has been up-and-down, at best. Still, this prediction isn't about who is more talented. It's about the offensive lines of the two teams.
Based on early feedback, the Dolphins have the advantage in the trenches and enough talent at the skill positions to mesh with Tua's play-action game. The Bengals will be forcing Burrow to bleed every bit of pocket management and scrambling that he can get out of his talent.
I also trust Chan Gailey's proven work as a coordinator ahead of Zac Taylor's attempt to clone the Sean McVay offense that the league has successfully stifled for the past 18 months.
Burrow is a fine rookie, but if I'm playing the odds for a second-half surge from a first-year quarterback, give me Tagovailoa.
CeeDee Lamb Will Deliver Top-15 PPR WR Production
Jerry Jeudy gets a lot of the marquee rookie love and deservedly so. Still, Lamb is the better all-round receiver on a better offense and in a better situation to succeed because of superior surrounding talent.
Lamb has been the top receiver in camp. He'll be alternating reps from flanker and the slot with Amari Cooper, which means the Cowboys will be creating matchup nightmares against opponents based on the strengths of each player.
The idea that Cooper and Gallup means there's too many mouths to feed in Dallas is false. Dallas not only supported 3,300 yards of passing offense to four receivers last year, but the flanker and slot positions are the two most heavily targeted roles of the three receiver spots. Cooper and Lamb will be sharing both roles in an offense that loves to use three-receiver sets.
Gallup is the most likely player to see his production decline. I'm not expecting it will, but the split end earns the targets with the lowest efficiency of outcome. Lamb is not a normal rookie option. By early October, fantasy writers will be telling you to treat him like a veteran when considering your starting lineups.
O.J. Howard And Rob Gronkowski Will Combine for 1,300 Yards And 15 Touchdowns
Tampa's offense was in the top half of the NFL last year with its usage of two tight ends (20 percent of the time, according to NexGen Stats). That rate will climb significantly with Howard, Gronkowski, and if it comes to it, Cameron Brate. This is the best 1-2-3 punch of tight ends in the league and you'll see this play out not only in the red zone but with plays big and small.
Tom Brady is a master at reading defenses and adjusting his alignments pre-snap. If you see Howard and Gronkowski as tight ends you're already behind the curve, because the Buccaneers will use these two not only as tight ends, but fullbacks, perimeter receivers, and slot receivers. If they get really inventive, Howard has the burst to earn shotgun looks as a back in the backfield.
Howard and Gronkowski may break the huddle as tight ends but you'll see Brady shift them all over the field to create matchup nightmares for the defense. Both tight ends can stretch the seam or win vertical perimeter routes at 20-30 yards downfield.
They'll also earn a lot of underneath targets. Howard has been the camp star and Gronkowski has not only ditched the massive elbow brace, but the time off allowed him to recover completely from the back surgeries so he's running like he did when he was at his peak in New England.
I'm projecting Brady to approach 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns and for this offense to spread the ball around. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Gronkowski, and Howard are the best four red-zone options and they're versatile in how they can get the job done. I have this foursome catching 34 of the 38 touchdowns that I've projected for Brady and the two tight ends accounting for 16 of them (an even split). I also have Gronkowski earning close to 800 receiving yards and Howard approaching 500.
Mike Thomas Will Be A Fantasy Contributor by Year's End in Cincinnati
No, I'm not predicting a Saints-Bengals trade. I'm talking about former Southern Mississippi wide receiver Mike Thomas who had a four-year stint with the Rams and became a special teams starter after showing little with his opportunities as a rookie in Jeff Fisher's offense.
I liked Thomas as a sleeper when he arrived in the NFL. He had a higher drop rate that one would like to see, but he also displayed vertical skills and a magnificent catch radius.
Auden Tate has garnered the most attention as one of the stars of Bengals' camp, but Thomas wasn't far behind and arguably displayed the greatest rapport with Joe Burrow. It's also important to note that Tate is a bigger, slower possession receiver and Thomas is a speedster who earned his time with the starters because he was replacing John Ross, the least durable player on the dept chart.
Predicting a contributor from a receiving corps often comes down to role as much as talent. Tate will have to compete with A.J. Green, Tee Higgins, and possibly Tyler Boyd to earn consistent playing time. If John Ross gets hurt, Thomas could be the next in line this year because of his vertical skills.
As a counter to this argument, it's also possible that if Ross gets hurt, A.J. Green moves to the Ross role and Tate or Higgins earns Green's role. But based on Green's recent injury history and Ross' ongoing durability woes, we might see Tate and Thomas this year.
I just know that Thomas gives Burrow greater versatility than Tate and if things unfold in Cincinnati the way things have been unfolding in Cincinnati for years, Thomas will be a surprise factor.
Todd Gurley Has One More Year in Him As A Top-10 RB
The gap between Gurley and my No.10 PPR back, Austin Ekeler, is 39 fantasy points. I projected Gurley for 240 attempts, 981 yards, and 9 touchdowns on the ground as well as 55 targets, 36 receptions, 287 yards, and 2 scores through the air.
I've spread an additional 120 carries and 59 targets among Brian Hill, Ito Smith, and Qadree Ollison. This is sensible when considering the Falcons rested Gurley so much during the offseason and talk about managing him appropriately.
However Dirk Koetter told ESPN on August 25 that Gurley is expected to see a minimum of 15 touches per game: "I think a minimum of 15 touches and high of 25."
Koetter qualified that comment immediately, explaining that it depends on "wear and tear" and that the Falcons have "a lot of guys that need touches."
Still, Gurley played 15 games last year and earned 254 touches in L.A. A 15-touch per game minumum for Gurley equates to 240 and I currently have him at 276, which is only 2 additional touches per game.
It stands to reason that the goal for Gurley is closer to the midpoint of Koetter's projection: 20 touches per game or 320 for the year.
Conventional wisdom dictates that Gurley won't return to the range of 315-325 touches that he had during his 39-game, two-season stint of 2017-18 prior to his injury that led to an exacerbation of a degenerative knee condition. However, we haven't considered that Gurley's 276-touch campaign post-knee injury was in 15 games for a team with an awful offensive line and an offensive mind that refused to adjust its scheme for 7.5 games.
Gurley joins an Atlanta offensive line that also struggled, but had a pair of rookies who showed signs of blossoming by year's end. From what I have seen from the two units, Atlanta's line has the foundation to become one of the top run units in the league if Chris Lindstrom can get healthy. Even if they don't solidify its left guard, the right side of the line with Alex Mack, Lindstrom, and Kaleb McGary offers a lot of value.
The Rams are healthier this year, but I value the play of the center a little more than others and believe Mack is a significant difference maker between the two units. So is Sean McVay's stubborn refusal to alter his scheme when opponents shut down the run with specific scheming week after week that was highly vulnerable to gap running.
I have Gurley at a conservative 4 yards per carry if the Atlanta line doesn't improve from last year. If the Falcons' line plays moderately better than last year, 4.3-4.4 yards per carry could yield 1,044 rushing yards or an addition 6.3 fantasy points and a massive improvement could vault Gurley into at 4.6-4.8 territory, which is an addition 14.7 fantasy points.
Either way, it's only a small-to-moderate difference when examining my fantasy points gap between Gurley and the top 10 options. The difference is the red zone. Gurley earned 14 touchowns in 15 games last year—12 on the ground.
I'm only 11 touchdowns total. Add another 3-5 scores, and it makes up that gap that separates Gurley from my projected top 10 backs. And that 3-5 added would still be 5-7 fewer than what Gurley averaged in 2017 and 2018.
Gurley's explosive play this summer has encouraged the Falcons' optimism about his potential workload. And if Gurley is wise, he'll know this year and maybe next are most likely the twihlight of his career as a starter. If there's a time to empty the tank, this could be it, which is why that 20-25 touches per game upside might be in play.
If that happens, Gurley could be much closer to a top-five back we've expected. I'm not going there as a bold prediction but I'm comfortable with top-10 value as a bold call.
These are some of my wild shots. As you can see, I'm not so worried about the hit rate.
With that in mind, may all your bold calls come true in 2020. See you on the other side.
