Fantasy writers spend a ton of time writing about draft plans. The best draft plans account as much as possible for the fluid nature of 8-16 people making decisions that you cannot take 100 percent into account—or even 60 percent into account.
A worthwhile draft plan is essentially a bunch of if/then conditions in the same way that quarterbacks read a defense. As with quarterbacks, where fantasy players get it wrong is when they don't recognize the coverage and the key leverage points to exploit before the snap, immediately after, and how to manipulate the defense while executing the solution to the problems presented.
If our fantasy drafts are the football field then our league size, scoring rules, our team's draft position, and the average draft position (ADP) of the player pool is the pre-snap coverage. It stands to reason with this analogy that when key players from the draft pool fall a certain number of spots below their ADP, it's time to react in the same way Patrick Mahomes II reads the post-snap position of the safety and throws open Travis Kelce for a massive gain.
The 25 players below have greater volatility built into their ADPs than players in similar spots. The ADPs used in this article come from Footballguys' ADP tracking of four PPR ADP sources and to provide an example of volatility, take 49ers running back Raheem Mostert.
Mostert has an average ADP of 51. His ADP range is 42-65. In contrast, Zach Ertz's ADP average is 48 and his ADP range is a much smaller 49-54.
The range of ADP is often an indication of the fantasy industry's confidence in a player. The greater the heights above and the depths below the average, the weaker the confidence.
These are the players you want to have a firm view of and if that view is positive, you want to know when in the draft you should act to get that player at a value. The 25 players below are options that have enough ADP volatility and/or value relative to their peers that you should act if they fall to specific spots during your drafts.
This article will share those points and share why these players carry additional weighted value relative to their peers in the same ADP range. ADP volatility is one of several factors considered for the players listed below, including individual talent, surrounding talent, and scheme fit.
Last note: ADPs are for PPR formats.
Early Rounds
The number in parenthesis is where you should pounce on that player if he falls to or below that spot in the draft. For example, Derrick Henry's number is eight, which means if he falls to the eighth pick or below, you should make him a priority pick.
Derrick Henry (8): Henry will enter the season as a 26-year-old bell-cow back in the prime of his career who serves as the centerpiece of a run-heavy offense. Although the Titans lost tackle Jack Conklin, Isaiah Wilson is a good fit for the offense's run game and the rest of the unit is intact.
Henry has remained healthy throughout his career, and the narrow range of his ceiling and floor is appealing for fantasy players: When Marcus Mariota and Corey Davis were disappointments, Henry was the 12th-ranked fantasy RB in 2018. When Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown performed above expectations, Henry was fantasy's No.2 back.
No player is safe, but Henry's profile is safer than most.
Tyreek Hill (10): Refuse to roll with a running back like Henry who falls to the end of the first round? Kansas City's offense performed well in 2019 despite injuries to Patrick Mahomes II, Sammy Watkins, and Hill. And it's Hill's injuries in 2019 that led to him dropping to 29th at the receiver position after consecutive years as a top-5 option.
If Hill falls below the 10th spot, your league has either forgotten that Hill's disappointing season was the result of injury and/or they believe Mecole Hardman is a threat to Hills production. Hardman has great speed but isn't anywhere near the same galaxy of a receiver as Hill. If Hill falls this far, pounce on a player likely to return to the elite fantasy tier.
Josh Jacobs (16): Narratives about Derek Carr and Jon Gruden scare fantasy players. Narratives about Lynn Bowden taking over a massive share of the backfield's receiving targets are misguided—and that's being generous and kind.
Let the quality of a team's offensive line be the compass for your decisions with most running backs. And when it comes to offensive lines, the Las Vegas Raiders are the true north of run units that will guide you easily to strong production from its starter. That undisputed starter is the magnificent Jacobs.
If Jacobs falls beyond the 15th pick, it's because fantasy players don't realize how talented Jacobs is as a receiver and that he'll be given more targets in his second year. Even if he isn't, Jacobs should top his rookie campaign based solely on the fact he only played 13 games last year.
Expect Jacobs to push for the rushing title and double-digit scores behind this mammoth offensive line. If your league doesn't see it, exploit their collective weakness.
Chris Godwin (16): Because Godwin had a huge year in 2019 and the Patriots added Rob Gronkowski to the receiving corps, there will be conjecture of a significant regression for Godwin in 2020. Godwin is, by far, the best route runner on the team, and he's also nearly as skilled as Mike Evans with contested targets.
Godwin earned a lot of easier targets because of the Buccaneers' tendency to move Godwin into the slot. Expect the same, if not more from Godwin with Brady under center.
As mentioned last week with O.J. Howard's 2020 value, Godwin will earn strong production even in Tampa's plan to use 12 personnel (two tight ends) as its base set. Wes Welker had strong fantasy years during the three seasons that New England succeeded with 12 personnel as its base look.
Godwin is a safe pick with elite upside and a super-high floor. If you can get him in the second round, you started off right.
Amari Cooper (31): If Cooper falls to this spot or below, it's because your fantasy league collectively doesn't understand the Rule of Three--a term that my colleague Dwayne McFarland coined for an idea that I and others in football analysis have shared about the value of having at least three strong skill performers in an offense. Novice fantasy players see three good receivers on a team and worry about "too many mouths to feed."
Last year, Dak Prescott supported 3,300 yards from four receivers--and two of them were a 1,100-yard platoon of Randall Cobb and Tavon Austin that rookie CeeDee Lamb should earn by himself. This doesn't include significant production from Jason Witten and Ezekiel Elliott as receivers.
Lamb will alternate in the slot and at flanker with Cooper, who will remain the primary option in this powerful offense. The Cowboys run a base set with three receivers, which means that Cooper will benefit from a number of mismatches against safeties, linebackers, and nickel backs thanks to Lamb and Michael Gallup.
Cooper may not have an elite fantasy WR1 upside this year because of the addition of Lamb, but he'll have among the highest fantasy floors of any receiver thanks to being part of this talented trio. Even so, there's no reason to expect low-end WR1 fantasy production from Cooper in 2020—and that's a bargain if your fantasy league lets Cooper fall to the middle of the third round.
Chris Carson (36): Rashaad Penny suffered a knee injury that could limit him all year and it led the Seahawks to add Carlos Hyde to the roster. Hyde is an underrated NFL running back who Seattle added to provide one-year starter insurance in case Carson falters because Seattle can't count on Penny to be healthy or rookie DeeJay Dallas to offer anything more than reserve-level contributions.
Carson is the lead back who earned career highs as a runner and receiver in 2019 despite sitting out Week 17 and having two weeks with only 8 attempts--Carson's next-lowest tally for a game was 15 and he averaged 18 attempts per week during his 15 starts. Expect 250-300 attempts for Carson in 2020 and closer to the highest end of that projection based on the fact that he's among the best backs at forcing opponents to miss tackles and he'll be 26 and in the prime of his career when the season begins.
If Carson falls this far, jump all over this back who fantasy players don't find sexy because he lacks the athletic sizzle of less-proven talents like Miles Sanders and he has a fumbling problem. Even with the fumbling problem, Carson was a fantasy RB1 and this offense remains stable in scheme and personnel for Carson to repeat RB1 value.
James Conner (36): Want a back who may fall to you at the same point as Carson but with greater upside? Conner is your back and if he falls it's because your league thinks that Bennie Snell and/or Anthony McFarland are more talented and Conner's struggles in 2019 were a revelation of his actual skill level.
False and false. Conner was the only proven skill weapon who played much of the season after Ben Roethlisberger and JuJu Smith-Schuster got hurt. Opposing defenses knew this as well and shut down the run with greater frequency because they correctly bet that Pittsburgh's unproven reserves and quarterback and receiver couldn't make them pay for doing so.
This year, Conner will have a healthy starting quarterback and primary receiver taking pressure off the run game. And that run game has one of the best offensive lines in football. Conner was the No.6 back in fantasy leagues in 2018 and it was a true indication of his potential.
While not a breakaway threat like McFarland, Conner is a better decision-maker and knows how to execute behind a wide range of blocking schemes than McFarland. He's also more powerful than McFarland and a better receiver than any back on this roster.
If you like the idea of Josh Jacobs falling to you early in the second round based on an excellent offensive line and veteran quarterback, you should love the idea of Conner's potential availability in the fourth.
Dak Prescott (44): Although CeeDee Lamb is a good blocker, he's not going to be manhandling ends and linebackers at the line of scrimmage like Jason Witten. However, Lamb is a net-gain for this passing offense, and the Cowboys have a skilled run blocker in tight end Dalton Schultz and a competent one in its starting Y Blake Jarwin.
Prescott loses Travis Frederick at the center position, but the rest of the line is intact and Joe Looney is competent enough if fourth-round pick Tyler Biadasz, a former Outland Trophy winner whose stock dropped due to a hip injury that still limited is mobility a year later, doesn't return to form. Because late-round quarterback strategies are viable and there's at least a mild disdain for Prescott because he's not the model for great technique at the position, there's enough volatility with Prescott's ADP for him to fall to the end of the fourth round.
It may be too expensive for most who like to wait on quarterbacks but he was easily the No.2 fantasy quarterback last year and it's likely that Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes II, Deshaun Watson, and possibly Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray will get picked ahead of him. If this happens, Prescott could actually fall as far as the fifth or sixth round and while he's a solid pick late in the fourth, he's closer to a steal 1-2 rounds after that.
Raheem Mostert (50): If leagues you're in allow Mostert to fall below this point, they're afraid that Mostert is a one-year wonder. After all, they've been inundated with the catch-phrase "Running Backs Don't Matter," and they translate it to believe that the NFL can plug any running back into an offense with a good line and get strong production. That's the schtick you'll hear from some analysts carrying the banner for the idea.
The underlying fear is the presence of Tevin Coleman. To quote the immortal Ray Parker, Jr., "I ain't afraid of no ghosts."
Coleman has proven that he's a good change-up but not a complete runner. He's competent with zone schemes but lacks the movement and finishing power of a top back. Mostert has greater versatility with the blocking schemes in the run game and he's also a breakaway threat with greater skill as a finisher.
Mostert was the No.26 fantasy back last year and No.11 during the final 7 games. Coleman was 56th during the same span. With Matt Breida gone, look for Mostert to assert himself as the primary back. Although he won't earn Chris Carson's 18 rushing attempts per game, he averaged 16 touches per game during that 7-game stretch last year.
A brittle Breida averaged nearly 13 touches per game in 2018 as the 49ers' lead back and this includes four games where he had less than 14 snaps. Remove those games from the equation and Breida averaged 15 touches per game. For a back who often falls to the fifth or sixth round, 15 touches per game from a back with breakaway speed behind an elite offensive line is a good deal.
After all, Austin Ekeler averaged 14 touches per game last year as fantasy football's No.4 back. Mark Ingram averaged 15 touches per game as the No.11 runner behind an offensive line that rivals the 49ers. Even rookie Miles Sanders was a top-15 fantasy runner in PPR formats with a touch-per-game average of 14. Add Kenyan Drake and James White to that list and you have five backs inside the top 20.
Now that you know the numbers and the context, take advantage of those who don't.
T.Y. Hilton (65): When Hilton falls in drafts to this range or below, it's a sign that your league fears Hilton and or Philip Rivers are washed-up. Hilton will be 31 when the season begins, but last year's injury that cost him playing time was a muscle ailment, which shouldn't hinder him now that it has healed.
If this were a chronic joint or ligament issue, it would be a greater concern. Although the Colts are preparing for a future without Hilton, Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman have a lot to prove and if a top technician and strategist like Andrew Luck jibed with Hilton, expect the same with Rivers.
It's not out of the question for Hilton to earn 1,100-1,300 yards this year and that's value if he falls tot he sixth round as your second or third receiver.
DeVante Parker (70): 2019 was Parker's best year. One reason was Parker finally staying healthy and figuring out how to work like a professional on and off the field. Another was the ACL injury to Preston Williams who was steadily earning the lead in targets for the team regardless of the quarterback Miami used.
Also, keep in mind that Chan Gailey has always been good at developing simple but effective offenses when he has top talent. Parker has the top-tier talent and he thrived in a Chad O'Shea offense that the team complained was too complex for the top personnel.
We shouldn't count on Parker to repeat his 2019 production with a new offense and a rookie passer to enter the lineup at some point during the year. We should count on Parker to at least earn another 1,000-yard season with 5-7 touchdowns. If he does this as a sixth or seventh-round pick and you selected well in the early rounds, odds are likely you'll have built a tremendous lineup.
When a chronic underachiever like Parker has a strong year, the past years of underachievement often carry more weight than the season of success. This is the reason your competition may let him fall this far.
A.J. Green (70): As with T.Y. Hilton, recent injuries and age carry more weight with many fantasy players than past production and upside. However, at some point, you have to give years of Pro-Bowl production the due it deserves when that player is completely healthy and the injury isn't a chronic issue.
This is the case for Hilton and Green, who is on the verge of earning the Hakeem Nicks in Indianapolis treatment from the fantasy community. The key difference is that the Bengals don't want to get rid of Green the way the Giants let Nicks walk.
Green's injuries haven't been chronic issues, so while his resume is pocked with seasons outside the top-12 for his position, when he's played at least 13 games during his 9-year career, he's had 2 top-5 campaigns, 4 top-8 campaigns, 5 top-15 campaigns, and 6 top-24 campaigns.
Green has only had 2 years out of 9 where he fell outside the top-24.
Since you don't have to pick him inside the first five rounds of most drafts and he frequently falls to the sixth or seventh round, there are plenty of scenarios that will unfold where Green fits well into your build.
Middle Rounds
Tom Brady (80): Aside from the significant weight that "Late-Round Quarterback" thinking factors into the depression of quarterback value on draft day, Brady's potential fall has to do with age, production decline in 2019, and the unknown of Tampa Bay. While true that we don't know what will happen, allow the ole Gut Check to gently remind you that in the face of the unknown, a good decision-making process is all you have.
Based on film study, Brady may not be as good as he once was 8-10 years ago but the differences are only magnified when he's not playing with top talent. Something fantasy players, writers, and football analysts often fail to take into account: It is exceedingly rare for a talented player to produce at an elite level without quality surrounding talent.
New England had an injured and struggling offensive line and a bunch of side dishes in its wide receiver corps. For the 100th time, name a receiver that's legitimately something other than a slot receiver and I'll tell you that you're dead wrong.
Brady goes to a Buccaneers squad that has two excellent tight ends--and a third one just a notch below--and two of the best receivers in the prime of their careers. Since the Bucs made the intelligent decision to use two tight ends as its base personnel, Brady will earn more production than he did last year and he'll be running this scheme.
It's not out of the question that Brady delivers a 5,000-yard, 35-score season with this caliber of skill personnel at his disposal. Even a 4,000-yard, 30-score campaign seems easily realistic and that's the potential production you'll be thrilled to acquire 3-4 rounds later than your peers who targeted last year's elite producers at the position.
Drew Brees (80): On track for 4,500 yards if not for an injury, Brees continues to produce fantasy fire with a fire starter (Michael Thomas), kindling (Alvin Kamara), a and stick of combustible wood (Jared Cook) despite a bunch of wet sticks and soggy ground during a monsoon (every other contributor that has seen the field on the roster).
When Brees earned multiple 5,000-yard campaigns, he had a pair of quality receivers. Emmanuel Sanders (see below) provides that extra quality. A consummate route runner who still has the speed to win in the vertical game, Sanders will give Brees greater license to spread the ball around. This will take the flowers made of frosting off the Michael Thomas Fantasy Cake, but there's enough production potential in this offense for the base layer of frosting to remain with Thomas as the top receiver and still make Sanders a 1,000-1,200-yard producer.
If Brees falls this far and you trust Brady a little less (I'd trust him), Brees is a fine alternative who also has four excellent weapons.
Rob Gronkowski (95): The greatest concern about Gronkowski is that his "football health" is shot. Let's face it, the physical health of a normal citizen is a lot better than NFL players. They're far more athletic, but they deal with a myriad of injuries and issues that arise from the pharmacology associated with treating the pain.
Gronkowski has had back, neck, elbow, and knees issues throughout his career and he made public the difficulties associated with handling the injuries. Although this isn't the case for every football player, Gronkowski's anecdote is not the exception among NFL players.
As much as many love the game, it doesn't erase the fact that players cope with a lot in their teens, twenties, and thirties to earn a shot at building generational wealth.
The fear that Gronkowski's body cannot take the punishment of the NFL is a real possibility. However, the potential that Gronkowski plays 12-14 games at the level of an elite receiver is also possible. Unlike his years in New England, where he spent a lot of time as the in-line tight end, O.J. Howard is also an excellent blocker who could do that work and it allows Gronkowski to work in the Aaron Hernandez role.
Not that Hernandez's role avoided punishment altogether, but if Gronkowski gets to face smaller defenders as a blocker at the edges and the second level as opposed to strong-side linebackers and defensive linemen, that's a positive.
It's worth noting that before Gronkowski retired, he had consecutive seasons with at least 13 games. In 2017, Gronkowski played 14 games and finished as the top tight end in fantasy leagues. In 2018, Gronkowski finished 11th with 13 games played.
The Buccaneers are using the offense that led to Gronkowski's best production and because Gronkowski is available in the middle rounds, it's worth taking him if he falls to the end of the eighth round and add an insurance policy. It's also worth considering Gronkowski the depth and adding an option in his prime if your league's lineup or scoring rules make that advisable.
Matthew Stafford (112): As mentioned with Hilton, Green, and now Stafford, don't punish your process due to injuries. Stafford was on his way to a 5,000-yard, 38-score campaign in 2019 if not for the broken bones in his back.
Stafford has the surrounding talent to play to the zenith of his style. He's the quarterback I like waiting for or taking as my second option in fantasy drafts. Two years ago, last year, and this year.
Kerryon Johnson (115): D'Andre Swift is a talented rookie, but Kerryon Johnson is currently a better runner based on tape analysis. The differences are small enough that the average fan won't always see it, but they are notable if Swift doesn't continue his development. Swift has the work ethic for growth but until then, Johnson runs with greater strength, has a wider variety of effective footwork, and he's a superior route runner.
A difficult task for rookies is to stay healthy and effective during a longer season than they're accustomed to. Johnson has experienced this problem, and it's why the Lions selected Swift and fantasy players are reluctant to pick Johnson at a spot in drafts that's commensurate with his talent.
It's possible Johnson's opportunities get cut in half. It's also possible that Swift gets hurt, Johnson has figured out how to maximize his training to prepare his body and make a strong showing for his next contract opportunity.
Because Johnson often falls 9th-10th round, it's worth considering if you need a back in this range.
Emmanuel Sanders (120): Sanders is a high-floor, high-ceiling option in an offense that will earn him targets against defenders that the opposing staff doesn't want covering Michael Thomas. Sanders has enough speed to do Ted Ginn Jr's job, routes on par with Thomas, and better technique and experience than Tre'Quan Smith.
Sure, he's older. However, he gave the 49ers offense the extra it needed to make a Super Bowl run. Expect the same in New Orleans and as a 10th-round pick, you won't be upset with 800 yards as a relative disappointment when the upside is closer to 1,200.
Darrell Henderson (140): Cam Akers is the rage and understandably so, he's a powerful runner with excellent hands and good speed. Still, there's no guarantee that Akers will be the lead back. Both Akers and Henderson are at their best in gap-style blocking schemes, which the Rams adopted at halftime during last year's Steelers' game.
If Akers has any difficulty adapting as a rookie, Henderson could easily lead the way and generate top-20 production. The runners that I've seen have initial difficulties adapting are usually gap-heavy players. Devontae Booker, C.J. Spiller, and Knile Davis come to mind as disappointments.
Tevin Coleman and Miles Sanders produced as fantasy contributors but had some difficulties that took the shine off their potential. Henderson didn't have an instant impact last year due to issues with the zone blocking. We could see similar from Akers and it could be enough for a better-prepared Henderson to take over.
As a 12th-round pick who could lead an offense's run game that has been productive with or without excellent linemen during the Sean McVay era, it's worth consideration.
Preston Williams (150): Last year, Williams trended towards leading the Dolphins in targets when playing with Josh Rosen and the same trend occurred with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. A Rookie Scouting Portfolio favorite, Williams' ACL tear ended what was on track to be a 64-catch, 856-yard, 6-score campaign.
Those totals are good enough for 34th on the fantasy totals list for receivers but if you removed the two acclimation games with quarterbacks from the equation, Williams' hidden potential as a rookie was a 72-catch, 994-yard, 5-score season, which would have placed him 26th on the list.
This doesn't even account for the idea that Williams becomes the hot hand during the final seven games instead of Parker or that Williams earned Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson's totals (539 yards and a touchdown) that would have given him 82 catches, 967 yards, and 4 scores and also put him 26th on the receiver board.
The big question is whether Williams can return to form by September. Ninth months is the barometer for ACL recoveries and August is that nine-month mark. Cooper Kupp suffered an ACL tear three weeks later than Williams in 2018 and finished the season as the No.4 PPR receiver in 2019.
Getting a starter in the 13th round who will earn better quarterback play in 2020 opposite a rising star in DeVante Parker is a shot worth taking.
Late Rounds
Sammy Watkins (170): Watkins is the No.3 receiver in one of the top offenses in the league but he's a distant third for fantasy players in drafts because of his injury history and, possibly, the thought that Clyde Edwards-Helaire and/or Mecole Hardman will overtake him. Enjoy that nonsense because Watkins signed an extension after a terrific postseason.
Watkins may have gotten hurt last year but it wasn't the chronic foot issue that plagued him for years prior. Watkins not only changed his body with the help of the Chiefs training staff but he also changed his habits and stopped drinking every night.
Put together the healthier habits, a healthier 2019, and the healthy production during the postseason, and there's reason to believe that Watkins could still be in line for a career-year in an offense that can support 3-4 fantasy starters thanks to Patrick Mahomes II and Andy Reid.
That's worth a late investment if Watkins falls beyond the 13th round.
Greg Olsen (180): A seam specialist with an excellent track record of concentration in tight windows, especially in the red zone, Olsen is an awesome fit for what Russell Wilson does best as a thrower. Fantasy players are scared of his age. They might wind up scared of him in your lineups months later.
Adrian Peterson (200): Fantasy football's Rocky Balboa is 220-plus-pounds of scrap iron who still has the short-area burst and contact balance to make a first-round rookie envious. Doug Williams thinks Derrius Guice is a knucklehead, Antonio Gibson has fast-growth potential, and Peyton Barber is a solid back with vision and change of direction quicks.
Still, Peterson remains good enough to split time with Guice if Guice can't mature as a professional. If Guice falters, look for Peterson to lead the way with Barber as the contributor and Gibson as a specialty option who could grow into more if he learns fast enough.
Peterson likely falls as the hype over Gibson and Guice happens without visual evidence of practice reports. If he's still available after the 15th round, ride that iron horse to flex production.
Josh Kelley (200): Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon coexisted as fantasy contributors. Josh Kelley is slated to fulfill that Gordon role at some point during his first contract. An underrated runner and receiver, Kelley has the size, long-speed, and vision to surprise fantasy players as an equal talent to Gordon in terms of production peak.
Although it may not happen this year because of the presence of Justin Jackson, Kelley is worth a flier during the final rounds of your draft because rookie backs acclimate fast when they have good vision, Kelley has good vision, and the offensive line is solid enough to provide Kelley creases.
Antonio Brown (230/170/120/50): As much as anything can appear obvious in 2020 (and precious few things do), it's appearing obvious that the Seahawks are interested in signing Brown. The reasons to consider him are clear and have been spelled out here two weeks ago.
The logistics and value are the most important point of discussion if you're buying that Brown will return to form. Let's go in reverse order of the numbers in parenthesis above.
If he's added in July, it means the team is committed to Brown becoming a massive part of the offense and it suspects a brief suspension. If that's the case, Brown goes from a player you consider if he falls to the final 2-3 spots in a 20-round draft to a player worth consideration in the fourth or fifth round.
An early-August signing likely means the team expects a suspension of 6-8 weeks, which makes Brown a value near the 10th round and potentially a routine contributor for his team and yours down the stretch.
A late-August or early-September signing likely means a suspension of 8-12 weeks and the team is hopeful he can add some juice for a postseason run but it heightens the risk that Brown has a bit part when he returns to the field. If Brown falls beyond the 13th round, he's worth your consideration.
As long as he isn't signed, Brown is a late-round flier.
You probably won't get most of the players on this list but if you can 1/3-1/2 of them--say 3-5 during the early rounds, 2-3 from the middle rounds, and 2-3 from the late rounds--you're going to earn talent, production, and value that's potentially much greater than the price tag.
Did you enjoy this article? Find more of Matt Waldman's work here.
