Draft Strategy: Good-Byes

Photo: Imagn Images

I'll share a little something about myself today. I'm not exactly a conventional thinker. That's sometimes good, often times bad, but there are enough aha moments where you have a revelation that might be just enough to say that all the oddball ideas that pop in your head are worth it if you can have one of those thoughts that pays off. Whether this is one of those moments is yet to be decided, but I think there is some hope.

First off, I'll set the stage for the discussion. When the NFL announced their 2020 season, we all poured over it and looked for fantasy implications. The first thing that jumped off the page was the bye weeks, as usual. Most keeper league and dynasty league players love to check that first so as to see if they have bye week issues in store for the coming season. That's when it dawned on myself and several others that the NFL hates us at times - no really, they do. Trust me. Otherwise, how could they not understand that these weeks where six teams have a bye week just wreak havoc with our fantasy teams?

The six teams off in one week started the first year of NBC's flex scheduling (2006), as the NFL wanted to adjust the bye weeks so that they would be done and gone by Week 11 and also so as to not have a team with a week off before Week 4. The net result of that simple math was that instead of eight weeks with four teams on a bye, the NFL would have two weeks where six teams took time off. In 2009 it got even worse as there were three weeks with six teams off, but it went back to two weeks in 2010. Various schedules have been used over the past decade, but every year there are one or more weeks in the schedule that create nightmares for fantasy team owners.

The complexity due to bye weeks continues in 2020, as both Week 8 and Week 11 have six teams taking the week off - but that is not the only story. Week 13 has two teams - Carolina and Tampa Bay - scheduled to be off, and that is the latest bye week since the NFL had just 31 teams (before Cleveland returned to the league). Four other weeks (Weeks 6, 7, 9, and 10) have four teams not playing, while Week 5 and Week 13 have just two on rest. No teams have a bye until Week 5, and Week 12 (Thanksgiving Week) also lacks for a team taking a game off.

All those byes made me think about the common question we have every year about bye weeks. Does it make good sense to collect players with the same bye weeks so as to have your team at full strength all the other games rather than patching your team for seven weeks during the year?

At first, I didn't like the idea, since you are basically writing off a week on your schedule. Walking into a 13-game schedule (prior to fantasy playoffs) at 0-1 already is not a great idea in my book. It gets even worse if you are in a league with fewer games or that punishes exceptionally bad performance weeks (such as the all-play format where you play everyone every week). All that aside, I thought I would at least see if I could come up with a recipe to do just the thing that people asked for - draft a team with all the same bye weeks.

I decided I would use three rules:

1. Focus on a complete starting lineup (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, and a TE)
2. The lineup had to be complete by Round 10 (Pick 120)
3. No reach picks

Rule No. 3 means that if you wanted to accomplish No. 1 and No. 2 but you had to draft a player in Round 5 who normally is still available in Rounds 6 or 7, that's off the table. We're not going to blow up our entire draft board just to employ this potential strategy.

The next step in analyzing this approach began with listing all of the Top 120 picks based on recent ADP and to sort them by bye weeks. Rather than listing them all (ADPs can always be found here), here is a table that breaks down each week by the total number of players and by position:

Table 1: Bye Weeks vs. Positions

After reviewing Table 1, a few weeks can immediately be removed from consideration. Normally every week that has just two teams off are immediately off the table, but one of them is very interesting for this coming season. With no bye weeks until NFL Week 5 and all but two teams wrapping up their byes by Week 11, the bye weeks are packed into October and November. Looking at NFL Week 5 where just two teams (Detroit and Green Bay) are off, both teams have only eight combined players in the Top 120 and no tight ends. This week was an easy one to eliminate. Week 7 has four teams (Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Tennessee), but only 10 players are in the Top 120 from these four squads and none of them are quarterbacks or tight ends. Scratch Week 7 off the list as well. That leaves six NFL Weeks to dig into, so let’s get started.

Starting in chronological order, Table 2 lists the players with a Week 6 bye week in a round-by-round format, separated by position.

Table 2: Players with Week 6 Byes

Taking a look at Table 2 and the players resting on Week 6, it is rather unlikely that a “Good Bye” plan would emerge. With only two players in Round 1 (Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas) that are roughly middle of the first-round picks, one player near the beginning of Round 2 (Josh Jacobs) and one more late in Round 3 (Chris Carson), it is unlikely than any team would have even two of these four on their roster after four rounds. While the Kamara and Thomas teams may add one of D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett and maybe the other two teams add either Darren Waller or Russell Wilson, with only eight players projected for selection in the first six rounds, building a complete lineup in the first ten rounds based on two of these eight choices is very unlikely. However, if you somehow land three of these eight, several Patriots (Julian Edelman, James White, Sony Michel) and Saints (Drew Brees, Jared Cook, Emmanuel Sanders, Latavius Murray) would be nice options in Rounds 7-9. Overall, the chances of a team dominated by a Week 6 bye are rather remote based on how most drafts are likely to go this season.

Now let’s take a look at Week 8 players, starting with Table 3:

Table 3: Players with Week 8 Byes

Week 8 looks rather promising, and that is mostly because of the volume of options. With 23 of the Top 120 players all on a Week 8 bye (thanks to six teams taking that week off), plenty of choices are available to employ a “Good Bye” team. The most likely scenario is for a team drafting near the end of Round 1, as DeAndre Hopkins and Kenyan Drake both should be available at that point and have the Week 8 bye. Five players would then be targets in Rounds 3 and 4 (Lamar Jackson, Juju Smith-Schuster, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, and Mark Andrews), so the choices are rather plentiful. A quarterback (Kyler Murray) and wide receiver (Terry McLaurin) could both be there in Rounds 5 and 6, while four wide receivers could all be there in both Rounds 7 and 8 (Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller) and Rounds 9 and 10 (Christian Kirk, Jerry Jeudy). Of course, grabbing 10 players all off in Week 8 is extreme, but there are so many different ways to build a “Good Bye” team that taking Hopkins and Drake to start the draft should not frighten anyone.

Now let’s take a look at Table 4 and the players resting in Week 9:

was already a scratch with just the Ravens and Cowboys having the week off, but the next four weeks are all viable options. Let's take a look at the next group of four teams that all share a bye in Week 9:

Table 4: Players with Week 9 Byes

Despite having four teams to choose from (Cincinnati, Cleveland, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Rams), only 16 players are in the Top 120. With only two quarterbacks (Carson Wentz and Jared Goff) and two tight ends (Zach Ertz, Tyler Higbee), pinning your hopes on a full lineup with Week 9 byes looks challenging. If Round 1 finds you drafting either Miles Sanders or Joe Mixon and then coming back to take Nick Chubb in Round 2, then a harder look at Table 4 is definitely warranted before your next two picks. Odell Beckham, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods should all be there for Rounds 3 and 4, but deciding on two of these wideouts will keep you from securing the best tight end with a Week 9 bye (Zach Ertz). Tyler Higbee is the other tight end to consider (or a non-Week 9 bye tight end), but there is a definite path towards two running backs and two wide receivers - all off in Week 9 - being on a roster after four rounds. Adding Carson Wentz or Jared Goff along with Higbee and a few key players like Cam Akers could push this team towards a full “Good Bye” roster for Week 9. Keep Table 4 at the ready if your draft falls in this direction.

Now for Week 10, starting with Table 5:

Table 5: Players with Week 10 Byes

Week 10 is interesting, as there are plenty of names in high profile and productive spots with Week 10 byes, but upon further review, there are some concerns. A total of 17 players across four teams are represented, but seven of them are projected to be first- or second-round picks. That thins the player pool to just 10 options for the next eight rounds, but if you happen to land on two Chiefs or Travis Kelce and another Week 10 bye player after two rounds, keep this approach in mind. Adding Amari Cooper in Round 3 and Calvin Ridley in Round 4 would make for a strong start to any team, regardless of bye weeks. Other owners may laugh if you take Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in the first two rounds, and then laugh even harder if you take Cooper and Ridley - but that’s an exceptionally strong start for a PPR team that starts three wide receivers. Just dust off some “Zero RB” articles and focus on that position for the next 4-6 picks, possibly adding in Matt Ryan to complete the group. While far from typical, this team could prove to be very tough to beat in any week but Week 10.

Moving on to Week 11:

Table 6: Players with Week 11 Byes

With six teams on a bye in Week 11 (Buffalo, Chicago, Miami, San Francisco, and both New York franchises), there should be a lot of options. Roughly one-sixth of the Top 120 players (21) are available, but the way the draft likely unfolds, you might as well call the Week 11 “Good Bye” team the “Barkley and Kittle” strategy. Only five players are expected to go in the first four rounds, with the most likely scenario falling to the Saquan Barkley owner. If he (or she) decides to take George Kittle at tight end, David Montgomery becomes a solid target in Round 5 to add a second tailback with the Week 11 bye. Even if the Barkley owner goes in a different direction, a team heavy on Week 11 byes is still possible thanks to Evan Engram potentially being available near the end of Round 6. If the squad has two of these three players after five Rounds (Barkley, Kittle, and Montgomery), the deciding factor may be if either Stefon Diggs or DeVante Parker fall in Round 6. If one (or both) make it there, then Daniel Jones is a prime target for a quarterback in Round 9.

Now, for the grand finale - Week 13:

Table 7: Players with Week 13 Byes

Normally a week with just two teams would not even be a consideration, but after looking very hard at both Carolina and Tampa Bay, an extremely interesting possibility quickly emerged. Any owner fortunate enough to be able to select the consensus overall first pick this year - Christian McCaffrey - could have a very real dilemma on their hands for their next two picks. Three wide receivers with Week 13 byes are expected to be available at this point in most drafts. Both of Tampa Bay’s starters (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) along with D.J. Moore of Carolina. What happens if you can take two of these three receivers? Do you dare?

The intriguing part of this decision comes down to the reality of having a full team available to your roster for the first 12 weeks of the NFL season. Depending on how your fantasy league is set up this year, Week 13 may even be a bye week for anyone securing a high finish, so Week 13 byes may not even matter. In addition, a top-heavy team with a stud running back and two strong wide receivers could build a strong record in your league to the point where Week 13 will not even matter - so who cares if your Top 3 players are not available. This adds weight to building a “Good Bye” Week 13 team around McCaffrey, a Tampa Wide receiver, and Moore. Those three players at the top of the draft would offer the added flexibility for Rounds 6 and 7, where both Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski should be available. By having the two best Carolina Panthers on the list, a Tampa Wide receiver and then two more Buccaneers late gives five out of seven starters (one quarterback, running back, tight end, and two wideouts) all with the Week 13 bye. This is a very bold approach, but one that warrants strong consideration.

Do note that in building this approach, it is likely better to avoid taking BOTH Tampa Bay wide receivers in Rounds 2 and 3. That would create overexposure to the Buccaneer passing game, assuming you want both Brady and Gronkowski later in the draft. Even if you forego Gronkowski, Brady-Evans-Godwin is a big investment in the Tampa Bay passing game, which could backfire if Brady has a bad day. Spreading some of the already high risk to Carolina’s top wide receiver mitigates some of the threat of a bad Tampa Bay offensive day, as does avoiding both Ronald Jones II and KeShawn Vaughn. With all of that said, this is arguably one of the most interesting draft plans in the history of this article, and I cannot wait to see if it pays off.

Lastly, as stated earlier, the best part of targeting Week 13 is that your fantasy team will have 11 games under its belt, so by then (or close to it) you will know if you can truly stomach a one-week loss or not for your playoff chances. This is another good reason to target Weeks 9-13 overall for any sort of "all in" Good-Bye plan for 2020 - especially Week 13.

So there you have it - the Good-Bye view for 2020. If your draft goes a certain way and you start to collect players with the same bye week, do not freak out. Just remember this article and think about compounding the problem by building a team that will be 100% full when other teams have bye weeks affecting their lineups. There are a number of ways to try this out and make it a successful draft, but remember my earlier warnings about planning for a loss in your fantasy season. Good luck.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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