Welcome to Week 7 of the 2020 Footballguys' Roundtable. Our intrepid and oddball panel of fantasy pundits discuss and debate Antonio Brown's impact in Tampa, the short-term and long-term value of popular replacement players in a variety of league formats, the fantasy value of newsworthy running backs, and advice on players who have underperformed or others expect will underperform.
- Antonio Brown's Impact in Tampa
- The Replacements
- Running Back Matters
- Now What?
Let's roll...
Antonio Brown's Impact in Tampa
Matt Waldman: In this week's Top 10, I forecast Antonio Brown's season with the Buccaneers, showing a potential path for him to be a fantasy WR1. Check out the details in the link above. For readers, here are the simple points:
- Despite numerous injuries to his offense, Tom Brad is only 300 yards behind my forecast of 4,900 passing yards and 3 scores ahead of my projected passing TD total of 39. It's among the reasons he can support multiple fantasy starters, which means I think it hurts Miller and maybe to a small degree Mike Evans in the red zone.
- I believe Brown's production and role will be a combination of what we've seen from Scott Miller between the 20s and what the Buccaneers desired from O.J. Howard in the red zone.
- Based on my projections of Howard and Miller for the year and deducting the production they already generated, I'm forecasting Brown for an average of 7 targets, 5.8 catches, 74.5 yards, and 0.9 scores from Week 8 onward.
- Brown earned 8 targets, 4 catches, 56 yards, and a touchdown in his lone game with the Patriots despite not working with Brady at all during the preseason.
- His fantasy ceiling. Give readers a specific ranking number and not just a fantasy WR1, WR2 as we typically use.
- What you think is a realistic expectation for his fantasy value.
- Which player(s) it could hurt.
Where do you stand on Brown's fantasy value?
Jeff Haseley: Like you, Matt, I see Brown being peppered with 7-8 targets per game and 4-6 catches. The yardage and volume could largely depend on individual corner matchups—for example, if there is a weaker matchup to exploit for Mike Evans (or Chris Godwin), I'm sure Brady will take advantage of it.
Brown's ability to gain separation and draw flags in contested catches will earn him targets. I see his ceiling for the season as a mixture of those 5-63 games and 7-118-1 games. I would say, right now, he is a flex option and possibly a WR2.
If Brady finds that Brown is the best consistent option among the Buccaneers wide receiver corps, he could bump up to a WR1, but that's yet to be determined. The safe estimate is a WR2 with 4-6 catches per game with a few big games sprinkled in.
Can he be a reliable fantasy player right now? Yes, especially in this offense loaded with talent that defenses will need to occupy.
You asked which players value may get hurt or diminish in value as a result of Brown's presence? Scotty Miller comes to mind immediately. There can only be so many receivers on the field. Miller is simply the low man on the totem pole with Brown being part of the game.
We could also see Godwin take a few snaps off as the Bucs find ways to get Brown more involved. My gut says Evans will occupy the X role while Brown will rotate the Z and the slot position. As of right now, I don't see Evan's snaps falling off that much, but Godwin could.
Mark Schofield: One of the more fascinating statements from a coach in recent memory was Bruce Arians this week reacting to the decision to sign Antonio Brown. You could add up the falsehoods in that statement and put it on par with many of the campaign commercials we're all being bombarded with these days: "I think he's matured, and I believe in second chances," Arians told reporters Sunday. "Everybody wants to say that Tom (Brady) picked him. Tom didn't have anything to do with it."
Ok.
But dealing with Brown on the field. There is no doubt that Tom Brady loves him, and has lobbied for him for months now. He and Brady immediately got on the same page in just one game last season, and I would expect Brown to be an immediate contributor.
His ceiling? Definitely, a top-12 receiver, and in terms of a more precise ranking, he could be ranked somewhere around WR8-WR12 down the stretch given: A) How well Brady is playing and B) Tampa Bay's upcoming schedule.
Of course, you have to hedge a bit on realistic expectations, given that Brown has had some issues in the past. Even so, you might be looking at a solid WR2 option.
As far as who it hurts, likely Scotty Miller off the top, and maybe even the tight ends - including Gronkowski - in the red zone in terms of their opportunities.
Daniel Simpkins: This was probably among the best possible fantasy landing spots for Brown. Assuming his mental health issues are under control, Brown is a good football player who can add further stress to defenses trying to cover the myriad of options in this passing game. I see him as a great option in the bottom half of the top-24 for most fantasy squads.
If things bounce right for him and he becomes Brady’s primary target, he has top-12 upside. We may also be seeing this move because Mike Evans has largely been ineffective playing through an ankle sprain. I could see Evans moving to an ancillary role and allowing Brown and Godwin to carry more of the load until that ankle is better.
If it plays out like that, it hurts Evans’ end-of-year numbers, but it may be a good thing in the long-run for his general managers because he can take the time to get healthy enough to be relevant for the fantasy playoffs. I also see Cameron Brate suffering a bit as some of the targets he has been getting due to injury situations get reallocated to Brown.
Dan Hindery: Matt’s projection of 18.7 fantasy PPG is actually higher than Bob Henry projects any wide receiver for the rest of the season. That seems overly optimistic for a 32-year old who has played one game in the last 22 months.
In addition to age concerns and the rust, you also have to consider the surrounding talent. Chris Godwin is only expected to miss a week or two. Mike Evans looks like he is playing through injury but should at least remain a factor in the red zone.
Rob Gronkowski is rounding into form and should remain a big part of the passing offense. Plus, Scott Miller has formed a nice rapport with Brady in his own right.
This is one of those fun situations where there is a wide range of ways Brown’s season could play out. It is not hard to imagine a scenario where he gets up to speed quickly and is a Top 10 WR. It is also easy to imagine a scenario where the comes in and gives you hit or miss fantasy production in an offense with a lot of mouths to feed.
Or anything in between.
My best guess is that Brown finishes in the neighborhood of WR25 overall the second half of the season while averaging about 14 PPG in PPR leagues.
His arrival hurts all of the other pass catchers to some extent. There are only so many targets to go around. Scott Miller is the most obvious candidate to see a decrease in usage. He has had 73 or more receiving yards in 4-of-7 games this season.
Drew Davenport: To borrow the great Michael Jordan's turn of phrase—the ceiling is the roof! In all seriousness, Brown's fantasy ceiling is quite high. I think that there are too many options in Tampa Bay now, however, to vault him into the top six at the position. The volume simply won't be there.
However, I do think his ceiling is still considerable. Brown is only 32 years old, and he steps into a situation that is tailor-made for him. The quarterback is a veteran, the other receivers are grown-ups, and the offense is potent.
Fantasy owners tend to forget that we are talking about one of the best wide receivers to ever play the position. Memories tend to get clouded with his recent behavior instead of his immense talent. His ceiling for the rest of the year is easily into the WR1 territory, though I don't believe the volume is there for a top-6 finish the rest of the way.
The realistic expectations for Brown, though, for me, are a bit lower. I would rank him as the WR17. This puts him just behind Terry McLaurin and Michael Thomas, but ahead of guys like Robby Anderson and Will Fuller.
The limiting factors are obvious: he steps into an offense that he has to learn, he's been out of football for essentially an entire year, and there are other options in the passing game that are not merely solid ones but elite ones.
No matter how good Brown is they won't force him the ball. Having said that, his elite talent will shine through and despite the limited targets and adjustment period, by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around, he should perform admirably as a WR2 with considerable weekly upside.
At the risk of being redundant, I don't see how Scotty Miller retains much value going forward. Short term if I'm a Mike Evans manager I would be concerned as well. He is obviously laboring through the ankle injury and I'd agree with Daniel that this may allow the Buccaneers to give Evans some more time off in the short term to get healthy.
In the end, I think this makes Rob Gronkowski less attractive, Miller an easy drop, and limits the ceiling of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The problem, as I sit here at the end of October, is that I'm afraid this makes all of the pass catchers much more volatile week to week. It's a potent offense, but Brown is too good not to have an impact on just about everyone there even if just from a consistency standpoint.
Jordan McNamara: Brown was with three teams and played one game in 2019 because of behavior problems, but the last time we saw him with close to a full season he led the league in touchdowns. Suffice it to say there is a wide range of potential outcomes for Brown.
His behavior was troubling, but the fact he has been quiet signals some optimism that whatever he was going through is now under control. At full strength, the Tampa offense has a lot of weapons, but as currently constructed, there's a lot of injury issues.
Brown could join the Tampa offense and by injury circumstances not clip anyone's role in the offense. If Brown is in shape and on good behavior while Evans and Godwin are healthy, I could see Brown get 7-9 targets per game and slot in around WR18 to close the season. If everyone is healthy, I think he takes some of the ceiling off of Godwin, Evans, and Rob Gronkowski, but I do not think he torpedos anyone's value.
Chad Parsons: The full collection of skill-position talent in Tampa Bay now includes Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scott Miller, Rob Gronkowski, plus two notable running backs. There will be fantasy disappointments among them for the rest of the season.
However, my general approach for loaded offenses is along with the bad news of the pie being split into more pieces overall, the peak weeks for a player are still pronounced and impactful fantasy-wise. The floor softens if the player is left out in a given game, but also this assumes everyone stays healthy.
Tampa Bay is already the walking wounded with Chris Godwin out at least this week, Mike Evans operating around 80 percent by reports, Scott Miller has already been dinged up, and Rob Gronkowski has been an oft-injured player in his career and on a reclamation tour.
Also, I will mention I would put a higher than 50 percent probability Antonio Brown does not finish the season with the Buccaneers. Multiple teams and quality coaching staffs. bailed on Brown and their sunken investments in him. Brown is firmly on the NFL fringe on a daily-weekly basis. In a perfect storm of some combination of Evans-Godwin-Gronkowski missing games over the second half of the season plus Brown being on his best behavior, Brown could be a top-8 fantasy receiver over the said span.
However, the floor is a spread-it-around passing game with most of the targets healthy most weeks and no one finishing in the top-12 of their position. As a staunch Mike Evans proponent, I see Chris Godwin as the option most hurt under the most likely outcomes to close 2020.
The Replacements
Waldman: Pick two players from this list and tell about the projected short-term/long-term value for them this year.
Haseley: Regarding the 49ers running game, it may not matter who is in the backfield. We've seen success from everyone. Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson, JaMycal Hasty, Tevin Coleman, and Kyle Juszczyk. That's six running backs who have found success with the 49ers running game.
The question is, who does Kyle Shanahan want to be the primary ball carrier? He came out last week after the game and said that he wanted Jeffrey Wilson to start to give McKinnon some time to rest. The full quote:
“The plan was to rest Jet (McKinnon) a little bit with how much he’s gotten the last few weeks, so we were going to go with (JaMycal) Hasty or Jeff (Wilson) depending on their health,” Shanahan said. “Jeff showed in practice that was healthy enough to go, got cleared and it was a pretty easy decision.”
Jeff Wilson suffered a high ankle sprain in last week's game and is out for several weeks. Mostert (also with a high ankle sprain), is out until at least Week 10 or 11, so whom will Shanahan lean on? Is McKinnon rested enough? Even if so, is he a better option than JaMycal Hasty who has shown well in his limited opportunities?
The race for fantasy glory in the 49ers backfield seems like it is down to Hasty and McKinnon, but even that glory will be short-lived when Mostert returns to action. In the short-term, if I had to choose which back to put my chips on, it would be Hasty. Mostly because we aren't sure what the situation is with McKinnon.
Until we do, we have to think there is a little more to the story than him just receiving "rest". For the short-term, Hasty is my pick, but when Mostert returns, it's going to be his role.
The loss of Odell Beckham essentially raises both Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones up the depth chart ladder. In the early going, Higgins appears to have taken over Beckham's role. He is the veteran of the group and therefore the coaching staff should and will lean on him to step up in Beckham's absence. As a result, he should see a bump in production and therefore fantasy appeal.
He finished with 6 receptions for 111 yards in last week's game against Cincinnati. Five of those catches came in the second half with a three-point lead the whole time. His catches included gains of 10, 21, 21, 20, 8, 30. He caught every target.
While Higgins was racking up the yardage in Beckham's absence, Peoples-Jones was the one who caught a touchdown and he added some yardage of his own catching passes of 19, 13, and 24 (touchdown) all in the 4th quarter. My thoughts on this playing out in the future is that Cleveland will lean on Higgins, especially at first, because he has earned that role. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Peoples-Jones continue to play well and earn more opportunities of his own.
Schofield: Hard not to be impressed with Donovan Peoples-Jones after what happened at the end of that game against the Cincinnati Bengals. He displayed the vertical ability, ball skills, and footwork to make him a solid option going forward for the Browns in the wake of the injury to Odell Beckham Jr With Baker Mayfield's almost immediate trust in him, as evidenced by the late throws in a pressure situation, he should see opportunities going forward.
The Dallas Cowboys have become sellers. They traded Everson Griffen to the Detroit Lions, and look lost as a franchise right now. Matt Waldman and I dove into that in-depth on a recent episode of the RSP Cast. As such, Ben DiNucci—or any Cowboys player to be honest—is not worth the headaches.
Davenport: At the risk of being too dismissive of Hasty, I don't see any long term value here. The only reason Hasty has been able to get on the field is because of cluster injuries at the position. While talented, it's obvious that Shanahan prefers the other options, including 3 (or 4) tailbacks before he turns to Hasty.
Waldman: Worth noting about Hasty, Drew, is that Shanahan told the broadcast team on Sunday that the 49ers back was really impressive during training camp but because there wasn't a preseason to see him perform in live-action, a far more meaningful indicator for running back decision-making and finishing of plays, they maintained a cautious approach with how they slotted him on the depth chart.
Davenport: That's interesting, Matt, but with Tevin Coleman returning, and Jerrick McKinnon manning the third-down role, that value will be short-lived this year. Week 8 is a decent spot for a flex-start for Hasty, but the Seahawks run defense has been one of the lone bright spots for their porous defense.
Higgins is one of the more interesting wide receiver prospects on the wire at this time of year. It's not often that a guy with his potential shows up this late in the season off the wire, but the injury to Odell Beckham has created a void. Even prior to Beckham going down Higgins had jumped up to 55 percent and 60 percent snap share the previous two weeks.
Once Beckham left the game in Week 7 that hit 85 percent—a full-time player. In fact, he out-snapped Jarvis Landry in the Week 7 game. There is some evidence (scant, small sample size though it may be) that Baker Mayfield may even be a better player when the pressure to get Beckham the ball is gone.
The Browns schedule going forward is extremely favorable as well and he dodges any real defensive tests except for the Ravens in Week 14 because his second game with the Steelers falls in Week 17. Higgins should be immediately rostered in all formats as he has WR3 value with WR2 potential the rest of the way.
Simpkins: Reading between the lines, it sounds like Jerrick McKinnon may be dealing with an injury situation. JaMycal Hasty has short-term value as the primary ball carrier Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert rehab their injuries. It sounds like their recovery is weeks away, but when either of those two gets back, all bets are off for Hasty.
I love what I have seen from Donovan Peoples-Jones so far. He seems so advanced for being a rookie. He has impressed me so much that I’ve made him the No.1 WR pick up this week in Waivers of the Future. It was no surprise to me to find out after the fact that he’s a Matt Waldman favorite.
McNamara: Higgins has a good opportunity in Cleveland. Donovan Peoples-Jones could also benefit from the Odell Beckham injury, but I think the more established Higgins is most likely to take on the WR2 role in the offense. I'd keep in mind the offense is a run-first offense, so the volume may not be that high and there are options at other positions, like Austin Hooper and David Njoku that can siphon off some of Beckham's target share.
Scott is also in a good position with Miles Sanders questionable heading into week 8. As a source of weekly upside, one injury away running backs are highly valuable, and Scott will get a matchup against a weak Dallas defense. Sanders has missed two games, and even when he returns Scott is a must hold as a one-injury-away back down the stretch of the season.
Hindery: In the short term, Hasty is easily the most intriguing player on this list. The San Francisco rushing offense under Kyle Shanahan is a machine. Just this season, we have seen undrafted running backs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson each put up monster fantasy games.
Both are out for multiple weeks, which should leave the primary first- and second-down role for Hasty (with Jerick McKinnon as the primary third-down back). He is a Top-20 running back option this week and has a chance to maintain that type of value for the next three weeks or so.
Of the players listed, Higgins probably has the best chance of remaining fantasy relevant for the rest of the season. He steps into the WR2 role with Odell Beckham Jr out and may even push Jarvis Landry (who is playing through a broken rib) for the WR1 role in Cleveland.
This entire Browns passing offense has been inconsistent so Higgins is likely to be up and down. He projects as a solid WR4 the rest of the way, which has some value with bye weeks and other factors unique to 2020 making depth especially important.
Running Back Matters
Waldman: Tell our readers the following about the backs below...
a) Which back has the most short-term value this season?
b) Which back has the greatest weekly volatility this year?
c) Which back is the safest long-term value this season?
- Le'Veon Bell
- Chase Edmunds
- DAndre Swift
- Leonard Fournette
- Zack Moss
Simpkins: DAndre Swift has the greatest weekly volatility because you just never know how Detroit will divide the carries and targets between its backs on a weekly basis.
Even though he’s replacing Kenyon Drake due to injury, I believe Chase Edmonds is the back with both the most short-term and long-term value. Drake hasn’t been playing his best football this year and Edmonds has picked up his dynamic play right where he left off last year before suffering an injury. I can see a scenario in which Drake doesn’t get his job back and merely spells Edmonds for the remainder of the year.
McNamara: The back with the most short-term value is Edmunds since he is likely to get at least a start or two with Kenyan Drake injured. Edmunds has been the preferred passing target out of the backfield this season, so this essentially consolidates the rushing game with his pass game work. He has top-12 upside any week Drake is out.
The greatest volatility is probably Bell. Notably, high volatility is not an insult at running back. In fact, if Bell is truly high volatility, it means he gets spot starts down the stretch, which could change the landscape of a playoff matchup.
The safest long-term value this season is Swift. I worry about the upside of Swift in a three-way committee with Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson, but Swift is the receiving-centric back in the offense while playing about the same snap share as Peterson. He can be RB18-24 in that role. With a Peterson injury, Swift has RB6-12 upside.
Parsons: Leonard Fournette has the most short-term value as he surged to the most snaps for the Tampa Bay backfield last week and is finally healthy, plus Fournette is the primary pass-catching option by reports.
The highest pure upside (weekly and rest-of-season) is Bell. I see Bell getting most of the goal-line work and a good chunk of the obvious passing down snaps—two high-leverage fantasy situations. As the season progresses, Bell's all-around skill set to allow the Chiefs to be truly multiple with their play-calls and Bell's assignments on his snaps will shine and Bell will have significant momentum for more snaps and touches.
Swift is the safest bet as a floor play as Kerryon Johnson is a shadow in that backfield and Adrian Peterson will not impede on Swift important touches in the passing game or in the red zone to a high level.
From comments both Tom Brady and Bruce Arians have made, he'll see some pass-catching duties, and while that sounds like a good recipe to reduce volatility, predicting game scripts is a dangerous business. Ronald Jones II will continue to control early-down work and get some goal-line touches. As a result, starting Fournette is going to be a frustrating proposition in any starting lineup.
Swift is slowly starting to convince the Lions coaching staff that he needs more touches. It's anyone's guess why they'd draft him so high while continuing to use Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson, but in the last 3 weeks, Swift has garnered 13 targets to just 8 for the other two backs combined.And while his snap share hasn't matched the increase in touches yet, he's averaging almost 13 opportunities a game in his last 3, and more importantly, he's seen 9 red zone touches to Peterson's 7.
The trend seems to be going in Swift's direction and this should continue the rest of the season. Swift is a solid play moving forward, and it's possible he becomes even more involved as the season goes on.
Schofield: In terms of what running back has the most short-term value right now, it's Le'Veon Bell. The Kansas City Chiefs have a favorable schedule over the next few weeks with the New York Jets and the Carolina Panthers, so you have to expect the Chiefs will face some positive game scripts over their next few games. That should give Bell a lot of opportunities.
The most volatile running back right now is D'Andre Swift. I would agree with every word from Daniel here: "you just never know how Detroit will divide the carries and targets between its backs on a weekly basis." A someone who has battled the New England running back usage wars the past few years, I can see shades of this playing out in Detroit.
As for the safest long-term option, I would look at Chase Edmunds. As others have illustrated, he should see the bulk of work over the next few weeks. He seems a perfect fit for what Kliff Kingsbury wants from his running backs right now, so I think he is a solid performer down the stretch.
Hindery: Edmonds has the most short-term value and the safest long-term value. The Cardinals offense has taken another big leap forward. Back in July, I wrote about the Cardinals as a potential breakout offense.
They went from 14.1 PPG in 2018 to 22.6 PPG in 2019, a scoring increase of 60% that ranks as one of the biggest single-season leaps in the past decade. In the article, I posited that if the Cardinals made the leap to 29 PPG, Kyler Murray would project as the fantasy QB1 and DeAndre Hopkins would project as the WR4.
The Cardinals are averaging 29 PPG, Murray is the QB1, and Hopkins is the WR1. If you bought into the breakout potential of the Cardinals offense, you are reaping the rewards. That is unless you drafted Kenyan Drake.
The same article projected Drake as the RB6 if the Cardinals scored 29 PPG. That has not been anywhere close to the case despite Drake ranking third in the NFL in rushing yards (512). Drake has scored three fewer rushing touchdowns (4) than Kyler Murray (7) and ceded nearly all of the pass-catching work to Edmonds, which has capped his fantasy upside.
In short, the Cardinals starting RB should be putting up huge fantasy numbers but is not. We could easily see that change if Edmonds take the bull by the horns and runs with the lead role. He should remain much more involved in the receiving game than Drake was and has shown more explosiveness as a runner, also.
Edmonds projects as a Top-10 running back for as long as Drake remains out. Plus, if he shows well in the role, he could keep the top job even after Drake returns. There are not very many backs I would prefer to have on my roster right now over Edmonds given his massive upside and relatively high floor as well.
The most volatile option on this list is Swift. We know that Bell, Fournette, and Moss are likely stuck in timeshares. That may or may not be the case for Swift. At the midway point of the season, Swift is the RB24 in fantasy despite hardly playing in Week 3 and Detroit already having had a bye. To date, he has been limited to a part-time role despite strong production.
If he stays in his current role, he is likely to remain a touchdown-dependent low-end RB2. However, it would make sense for the Lions to continue to increase Swift’s usage. The 21-year old is clearly the future at the position and his dual-threat skill set makes the offense more dangerous when he is on the field over Adrian Peterson. We are banking on rational coaching from Matt Patricia to really unlock Swift’s ceiling, which is far from a sure thing. Hence the volatility for Swift going forward.
Haseley: I'd rank the short-term value of these backs from best to worst: Edmonds, Swift, Bell, Fournette, and Moss.
Edmonds has a chance to earn the starting role outright, even when Kenyan Drake does return, so I like his chances going forward, especially the next few games. As for most likely to have weekly volatility? It's a toss-up between Leonard Fournette and LeVeon Bell. Both are capable of being involved in their respective offenses, but both also have teammates who can and will be involved, perhaps even more so than the other.
If you're forcing me to pick one, I'd say Fournette is more volatile of a pick, meaning his outlook and production could change quickly, any given week.
As much as I like Swift rising up the ranks in the last few weeks, there is still a committee with Adrian Peterson. I do think Swift will eventually take that role over, but for now, Detroit deems it necessary to include Peterson in the mix. If and when Swift earns the vast majority of touches, he's further down my ladder of backs that interest me.
As I mentioned earlier, Edmonds could earn the lead role outright even when Drake returns from his multi-week ankle injury, especially if he shows well in his audition over the next few games (BYE, MIA, BUF, at SEA, at NE). Edmonds is the favored receiving back for Kingsbury's offense and now he has a crack at getting the full load. Edmonds owners are salivating at the chance to finally get a chance to start him with confidence. He should produce RB2 numbers and potentially, RB1 numbers.
Now What?
Matt Waldman: You drafted these players in the early rounds and they either haven't performed to expectations or their situations have changed enough for there to be palpable fear they won't perform moving forward. Pick ONE and tell us how to proceed:
- A.J. Green
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Josh Jacobs
- Devin Singletary
- Mike Williams
- Michael Thomas
- Marquise Brown
- D.J. Chark
Where do you stand?
Adam Harstad: Wait, Josh Jacobs? The guy drafted as RB8 in PPR leagues who has been RB14 to this point despite already having his bye (RB10 in ppg)?
Waldman: I am just a messenger of the people—people who have shared concerns via email and Twitter.
Harstad: And my exasperation can be read as being addressed at them rather than you, Matt.
Jacobs has increased his rushing volume and nearly doubled his receiving volume from last year (he’s already just 3 targets and 2 receptions shy of his totals for all of 2019).
The issue is his yards-per-carry average has fallen from 4.8 as a rookie to 3.4 this year. But the yards-per-carry average is pseudoscientific nonsense; in my weekly regression to the mean column, I make a killing twice a year every year betting that high and low YPC averages will both trend strongly toward league average going forward.
Jacobs will be fine. Pair his volume with awful per-touch metrics like he’s had so far and you have a low-end RB1. Pair them with average per-touch metrics as he’ll likely have going forward and he’s a strong RB1.
Haseley: I pick D.J. Chark. What should you do? He has not reached double-digit fantasy points in three weeks, which also coincides with his ankle injury. My take: Be patient.
The Jaguars have their bye this week which will give Chark a chance to heal his ailing ankle. Chark is still a key piece to the Jaguars offense. He has not connected much lately but he has 21 targets in the last two games. He'll come around. He's too good of a player not to rebound when he's healthy.
Davenport: Chark is an interesting guy for this question. He's struggled with some injury issues, but that doesn't explain the overall problems he's having. He has 41 targets in six team games, an average of 6.8 targets per game (this is also bolstered by 14 targets in Week 6).
Putting aside the fact that this is not an elite number for a guy expected to command more targets, he's got a somewhat putrid 64 percent catch rate too. I would expect that this is partially due to the Jaguars' offensive line issues, and also Gardner Minshew's second year growing pains.
The problem is, it doesn't look like either of these will change going forward. The recent talk about Minshew being benched for Mike Glennon is hardly inspiring either. To use Matt's phrase, if I have Chark on my roster right now I have "palpable fear" about Chark's value the rest of the year.
He will have value. He will have nice games. But I don't think either will be consistent enough to return the value he was drafted for.
Simpkins: I think Ezekiel Elliott will be fine and finish in the top twelve. He has had some uncharacteristic fumbling problems the last couple of games, but he hasn’t been a fumbler throughout his career, so I’m not worried that this disturbing trend will continue.
He’ll also likely have Zach Martin returning to the lineup, which could help improve the run game. They’ll need to lean heavily on Zeke with the quarterback situation as it is, so I don’t worry about volume.
Hindery: Just when I thought I was out, A.J. Green pulled me back in with a pair of strong performances over the last two weeks. Since Week 6, Green is tied for 5th in receptions (15) and 8th in receiving yards (178). After looking like a shell of his former self early in the year, Green seems to have knocked off the rust and begun to form a nice rapport with Joe Burrow. Given the direction of the Bengals season (awful defense and limited running game), everything sets up for Green to continue to get a lot of opportunities to make plays (11 and 13 targets the past two weeks).
McNamara: Just wait for some positive regression and things will get better that's my advice for A.J. Green, who has 1.01 points per target so far, which is laughably low. An average expectation would be in the range of 1.65-1.80 points per target, and the stat is not predictive of future success.
Put another way, players with low-efficiency regress towards the mean over time. The question with low-efficiency players is do they continue to receive the target volume?
That's a clear yes for Green. He's seen 24 targets in the past two games, with his two best-receiving yardage performances on the season (96 and 82 yards). Green is on pace for 132 targets for the season, and if he gets close to that, I expect a big stretch run for Green.
Parsons: I am not overly concerned about Josh Jacobs. My quibbles are seeing more out of him in the passing game and not seeing true workhorse snaps. However, Devontae Booker is one of my favorite primary backup running backs and warrants looks. Plus, Jacobs' overall touches are solid despite the previously-mentioned quibbles. Jacobs is a firm "hold" material and a weekly starter. The floor is a finish in the RB10-15 range, but likely higher considering his pace for nearly 60 red zone looks this season.
Schofield: There is something very unnerving about this Michael Thomas situation and as someone who currently has him rostered in a few different leagues, I'm sweating it myself. As Jene Bramel has pointed out many times—including with respect to Thomas— high ankle sprains are tricky injuries. Especially for a wide receiver that relies on short-area quickness.
However, if he finds a way back to the starting lineup, you'll want him in your lineups. So you'll have to just ride this out and try to find some suitable Plan Bs in the interim. If you have assets at another position, perhaps you can find someone willing to trade one of the other receivers on this list—Marquise Brown perhaps—because I think that Baltimore Ravens offense will have things figured out coming out of their bye week, and it could be a buy-low opportunity.
